我国银行个人客户转换成本的实证分析

随着商业银行从批发向零售业务战略转型的推进,个人客户资源的争夺日益激烈.通过提高客户的转换成本来提高客户的保留率,已经成为商业银行提高市场竞争力的重要手段.对中国28个城市735份有效样本数据的实证分析显示,除了年龄与受教育程度等个体因素外,银行-客户关系和客户对银行服务的评价对转换成本影响显著.因此,提高服务质量、改善银行-客户关系对于银行提高竞争力具有重要意义.     

正确认识与开展税务服务

本期刊发了东北财经大学马国强教授《正确认识与开展税务服务》一文。文章认为:税收管理的目的是为了促使纳税人依法纳税,其内容包括税收服务、税收监控、税收保卫和税收救济。税务服务是税务机关为了为满足纳税人需要,促使纳税人依法纳税而提供的税务方面的服务。税务服务包括税收宣传和税收咨询两大方面的内容,前者主要是实施税收教育,向纳税人灌输税收知识。后者主要是通过直接接触、信函、电话等联系方式,回答纳税人提出的问题;建立税收信息网站,供纳税人随时查阅税收信息。文章通过严谨的论述,澄清了一些模糊认识,颇具启发性。     

国有控股集团企业知识型员工激励组合实证研究

国有控股集团企业知识型员工激励组合包括薪酬激励、工作成就激励、个人成长激励、工作环境激励、知识转移与共享激励等主要方式。实证研究表明,在薪酬激励方面,固定薪酬激励效应已降至最低水平,远不及奖金、福利、股权及期权激励策略。在工作成就激励方面,工作重要性和岗位转换的激励效应已降至中等水平,工作挑战性及相关荣誉更加能够激起员工工作积极性。在个人成长激励方面,担任重要角色、规范的技术培训与开发制度的激励效应为中等水平,而拥有资源配置权、负责组建研发团队和参与决策制定具有重要激励作用。在工作环境、知识转移与共享激励方面,先进的RD设施、优秀的企业文化、有利的团队冲突、规范的团队激励机制和健全的知识共享机制对员工的激励效应水平已高于较强团队凝聚力、顺畅的沟通激励以及优秀的领导、弹性工作时间和良好的学习环境。     

The Market for External Audit Services in the Public Sector: An Empirical Analysis of NHS Trusts

This study investigates the market for audit services in the UK National Health Service (NHS). The market has a number of interesting features, including the presence of the Audit Commission as a regulator, appointer and provider of audit services. Following a theoretical overview of audit pricing in the NHS, evidence is provided on the behaviour of private sector auditors in an environment where audit risk characteristics differ from the private sector. The research also investigates, for the first time in the public sector, the relationship between audit fees and non–audit (consultancy) fees. Comparisons are also drawn between audit fees in the public and private sectors in an analysis of audit fees by industry. Despite some key similarities, the study shows that a number of differences exist between private and public sector audit fee models. In particular, we find no evidence of Big 6 (or mid–tier) auditor premiums, but we do find a significant negative relationship between audit and consultancy fees providing support for the 'knowledge spill–over' hypothesis. In addition, the fees charged to trusts appear significantly lower than their private sector counterparts, despite trust auditors having additional duties to perform. Possible explanations for this finding are offered in the paper.     

The Provision of Non-audit Services and the Pricing of Audit Fees

There have been a number of studies examining audit fees and this research has covered various nations. Recent legislation in Norway requires a company to disclose information on the audit fee and the fees for non-audit services paid to its auditor. Using this data, models of audit fee structure are developed. As with other studies, the size of the company is a major determinant of the audit fee. Payments for non-audit services are positively and significantly associated with audit fees; this relationship is difficult to explain although it parallels some research in the United States. Overall, the models explain about 75 per cent of the variability in audit fees.     

温州农村金融服务供给与需求的实证分析

本文通过对温州农村不同主体的金融服务需求进行调查,了解当前农村不同经济主体的金融需求特征,并对温州农村金融服务供给建设进行分析,探寻农村金融服务供给中存在的障碍,为构建农村金融服务体系提供借鉴.     

Simultaneous Public and Private Provision of Services, Asymmetric Information and Innovation

Public and private provision of a service coexist. There is asymmetric information between the government and the agency providing the public service with respect to the costs, the quality of the service and the innovation effort of the agency. We examine the optimal government design of the funding contracts to induce the agency to reveal its costs and exert high innovation effort. The optimizing behaviour of consumers and private firms generates observable information, which can be used by the government to reduce its information problem. In the optimal contracts, the informational rents of the agency increase with the level of innovation effort that the government induces from the agency. Correlation between public and the private sector costs results in a trade-off in the government's policy between inducing innovation and extracting the informational rent of the agency. To increase the redistribution inherent in the public provision of the service, the government will manipulate the expected profits of the private firms to induce higher innovation effort.     

Technical Analysis and Liquidity Provision

The apparent conflict between the level of resources dedicatedto technical analysis by practitioners and academic theoriesof market efficiency is a long-standing puzzle. We explore apreviously unexamined feature of technical analysis —namely its relation to liquidity provision. We demonstrate thatsupport and resistance levels coincide with peaks in depth onthe limit order book and moving average forecasts reveal informationabout the relative position of depth on the book. Furthermore,we show that these relationships stem from technical rules locatingdepth already in place on the limit order book.     

The Provision of Other Services by Auditors: Independence and Pricing Issues

This research has three objectives: to identify the extent and level of other services provided by incumbent auditors in the Australian business environment; to examine pricing issues by investigating the relationship between fees for other services and audit fees; and to address the question of independence by (a) identifying whether the incidence of audit qualification is related to the level of other services purchased and (b) investigating whether there is a relationship between audit tenure and the level of other services provided. Information on audit fees, fees for other services, size, audit qualifications, industry and auditor (Big 8(6)/Non-Big 8(6)) was obtained from publicly available information for the majority of the top 500 Australian companies listed on the Australian stock exchange between 1986–1990. This study provides evidence that an increasing number of clients are purchasing other services from their auditor. A significant positive relationship between fees paid for other services and audit fees was also identified. No relationship was identified between the level of other services and the type of audit report issued or audit tenure, supporting the view that audit independence is not compromised by provision of the other services.     

预期信用损失模型对银行资本计提的结构性影响研究——基于50家上市商业银行的实证分析

预期信用损失模型是一项新的贷款损失准备计提方法,对其经济后果的评估非常重要.关于预期信用损失模型的实施对我国商业银行资本计提的具体影响,目前还缺乏深入系统的研究.本文结合我国50家上市商业银行的公开数据,从监管资本、会计损益和资本计提前瞻性的角度分析了预期信用损失模型对我国商业银行资本计提的影响.研究结果表明:总体影响上,商业银行的贷款损失准备计提金额显著增加,利润波动增强,对资本充足率带来一定冲击;从不同特征商业银行看,小型商业银行、使用权重法商业银行、城市商业银行和H股上市商业银行受到的影响更为严重;从资本计提的前瞻性看,贷款损失准备的前瞻性得到加强,顺周期性效应得到一定程度缓解,但并不能完全消除.     

An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency

This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyzecredit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stabilityof credit risk models. We estimate duration models for defaultand assess the relative importance of different variables inpredicting default. We investigate how the propensity to defaulthas changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanationsfor the recent increase in default rates—a deteriorationin the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers'willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Evenafter controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals,the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varyingdefault factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.     

基于中国数据的生产函数实证分析

本文从经典的CD生产函数理论分析出发,运用协整检验和误差修正模型对我国生产问题进行了研究.结果显示,GDP、资本、劳动之间存在协整关系,同时GDP、资本、劳动之间存在短期均衡关系,短期实际国民收入是根据上期实际国民收入的短期变化以及长期方程的残差来调整,相对于短期就业人口总数而言,短期固定资本投入的变动对实际国民收入短期变化的影响较大,两者呈正向变动关系,短期就业人口基本变化不大.     

高校财务实证分析与预警——以重庆市高校为例

采用点面结合的方法,通过科学确定关键指标及权重,使高校财务风险的度量和评估有了较为科学的计量依据;首次将层次分析法和功效系数法相结合来研究财务预警模型,对高校财务进行实证分析,为高校的财务预警提供了准确度和可行性;提出了加强政府外部监管与高校管理内部控制相结合的风险控制和防范的建议。     

Outsourcing Internal Audit Services: An Empirical Study on Queensland Public-Sector Entities

A study of Queensland public-sector entities suggests outsourcing of internal audit services to be extensive (88%), with 51% of respondent agencies adopting co-sourcing and 37% of the agencies fully outsourcing. Results suggest that internal audit outsourcing is largely adopted for non-financial reasons such as lack of technological know-how and service quality rather than financial reasons. Deficiencies of current governance arrangements concerning internal audit outsourcing include (1) a lack of audit committee involvement in outsourcing processes, particularly in co-sourcing entities, and (2) inadequate segregation of duties whereby the same senior management is involved in key arrangements including selection, approval, negotiation and evaluation of contractual performance.     

商业银行服务外包风险与绩效关系的实证研究

商业银行服务外包的规模和发展潜力巨大,占据了金融服务外包的主导地位。本文根据巴塞尔委员会主导的联合论坛出台的《金融服务外包文件》列举的风险类型进行分类、合并,构建一个关于商业银行服务外包风险的评价指标体系。在基于SEM模型上,运用SPSS、AMOS等统计软件进行定量的实证研究。通过研究,得出如下结论:战略风险、财务风险、人力风险和操作风险与绩效呈显著负相关,而系统风险和信用风险与绩效不则不存在显著负相关关系。     

利率掉期对企业财务管理影响的实证分析

通过利率掉期交易可以达到降低融资成本、规避利率风险和优化资产负债结构的目的.企业应当充分利用这一优势,增强自身的企业竞争力.然而,利率掉期又是一把双刃刽,本身蕴涵着风险和不确定性.因此,企业在使用利率掉期工具之前,应当在风险管理和内部控制方面做足功课.     

An Empirical Analysis of Residential Property Flipping

Beginning with a time-dependent definition of a house flip, the analysis examines flipping activity in Las Vegas from 1994 through mid-2007. We find that flip homes tend to be older and smaller than non-flip homes. Moreover, as the residential property market in Las Vegas begins to take off, flip homes become a more significant percentage of total sales. At the height of the housing boom in 2004, a typical flip produces an annual rate of return exceeding 60%. Even after adjusting for opportunity costs, this translates to economic profits of nearly 20%. However, shortly thereafter, the frenetic pace of the market begins to subside, and by 2007, economic returns to a flip fall to 0.     

An Empirical Analysis of Illegal Insider Trading

Whether insider trading affects stock prices is central to both the current debate over whether insider trading is harmful or pervasive, and to the broader public policy issue of how best to regulate securities markets. Using previously unexplored data on illegal insider trading from the Securities and Exchange Commission, this paper finds that the stock market detects the possibility of informed trading and impounds this information into the stock price. Specifically, the abnormal return on an insider trading day averages 3%, and almost half of the pre-announcement stock price run-up observed before takeovers occurs on insider trading days. Both the amount traded by the insider and additional trade-specific characteristics lead to the market's recognition of the informed trading.     

Managing the Innovative Capacity of Voluntary and Non-Profit Organizations in the Provision of Public Services

This article considers the implications of recent research about the innovative capacity of voluntary and non-profit organizations for their management by their organizational leaders. Its core points are that innovation has to be seen as one possible direction for the work of such organizations to follow, rather than being a defining characteristic of their work, and that the expectations of funders, and especially governmental funders, are as important in setting this direction as are the concerns of the organization itself.     

人民币国际化：计量研究及政策分析

中国经济的迅速发展唤起了人们对世界经济前景的重新思索,而人民币作为国际化货币崛起的可能性则是这其中最引人注目的话题之一。本文通过对各国央行国际储备、贸易结算、以及国际债券中的各国货币比重进行计量分析,意图挖掘影响一国货币国际化水平的内在因素,文章研究得出的显著因素包括:一国的经济发展总量、通货膨胀率、真实利率水平、汇率升(贬)值及波动幅度等。在回归结果上,本文进一步模拟了未来2020年主要国际货币在国际储备、贸易结算及国际债券中的比重,特别是在假设人民币可自由兑换的前提下,人民币在国际货币中可能占据的比重。在完全可兑换假设和最乐观的预测下,到2020年人民币在国际储备和国际债券中的比例可能达到近20%。我们认为完全可以采取一种双轨制的步骤,充分发挥境内、境外两个市场的作用,包括在境内实行有步骤、渐进式的资本账户下可兑换,逐步改善金融市场的运作效率;在境外充分运用香港的优势,尽快扩大人民币证券市场规模,推进人民币国际化的进程。