Limited attention and the optimal incompleteness of contracts

A decision-maker's limited attention is allocated between writingnew contracts and directing current contracts. More time spentwriting a new contract makes the contract more complete. A morecomplete contract performs better and generates higher returns.The optimal allocation of attention implies two types of contracts,relational and market. A relational contract, which is directedperiodically, is optimally less complete than a market contract,which is not directed. The completeness of relational contractsdecreases with the ability to direct contracts, since changingcircumstances can be dealt with later. In addition, the completenessof relational contracts increases with the ability to writenew contracts, since more complete relational contracts aredirected less frequently and leave more time for writing newcontracts. The optimal allocation of attention to relationalcontracts is socially efficient even though it does not maximizethe discounted expected returns of the firm.     

THE EFFECT OF OWNERSHIP IN NGOS’ COMMERCIAL VENTURES

ABSTRACT: Amidst pressure to become self‐financing, Non‐Governmental Organizations (NGOs) have become increasingly involved in profit‐generating business ventures. Because NGOs are traditionally financed by donations with the expectation that they focus on their social mission, the commercialization of NGOs has generated criticism. This paper examines the effect of ownership on investment incentives in NGOs’ commercial ventures, using an incomplete contracts framework. NGO‐ownership helps minimize the tension between primary social mission and managerial decisions. However, external ownership provides better incentives to invest in mission‐enhancing innovations. Finally, because relationships with firms are repeated, NGOs may use relational contracts to align their ventures’ incentives. However, such contracts need to be credible to work.     

市场互联性、关系型合约与经济转型

本文通过将单一市场的关系型合约推广到互联的关系型合约,刻画了社会分工程度(市场范围)与微观治理机制(基于关系型合约的治理还是基于正式合约的治理)之间的互动关系:基于何种合约来治理受市场范围的影响,市场范围越小,关系型合约越重要,正式合约越不重要;反之则反是。特别地,从这个视角看,计划经济向市场经济转型的过程,是劳动分工不断深化和市场范围不断扩大的过程,在微观治理上是一个从互联的关系型合约不断向正式合约过渡的过程。中国的渐进式改革之所以成功,很大程度上是由于渐进式改革使原来自我实施的关系型合约没有受到很大程度的破坏,在正式合约缺位时,关系型合约仍然能够维持社会经济的运行;俄罗斯的激进式改革几乎在一夜之间破坏了自我实施的关系型合约的可维持性,而短期内又不可能建立依赖正式合约的治理模式,出现了微观治理失效。本文还解释了中国经济在缺乏正式的法律和产权体系下取得骄人绩效的“悖论”,即由于关系型合约的自我实施性,因而并不需要相应的正式制度安排。本文总体上支持“后华盛顿共识”的渐进改革路径,并为其提供了动态的微观机制。     

Asset Specificity and Vertical Integration

Asset specificity is usually considered to be an argument for vertical integration. The main idea is that specificity induces opportunistic behavior, and that vertical integration reduces the cost of preventing opportunism. In this paper I show that asset specificity can be an argument for non‐integration. In a repeated‐game model of self‐enforcing relational contracts, it is shown that when parties are non‐integrated, increasing degrees of asset specificity make it possible to design relational contracts with higher‐powered incentives.     

Honesty,Diligence and Skill: Risk Sharing and Specialization in the Kiryu Silk Weaving Cluster,Japan

Many economies have seen growth in industrial clusters during their industrialization, and the relational contracts between manufacturers and subcontractors are often the organizational basis of clusters. We predict that, if manufacturers form relational contracts with subcontractors, if manufacturers closely collude with each other when trading with subcontractors, if information about subcontractors’ past actions is only imperfectly shared by manufacturers as hearsay, and if demand shock is considerable, then premium subcontractors suffer more from market volatility than ordinary subcontractors would and hence, it is optimal for manufacturers to shield premium subcontractors against the risk. We then study Kiryu, a kimono weaving cluster that expanded from the late nineteenth century with the development of new synthetic dyeing techniques. We show that premium subcontracting weavers were allowed long‐term relational contracts and specialization, which shielded already honest weavers against market volatility and induced them to be diligent and to acquire skills.     

Contractual governance,business groups and transition

We suggest a unified framework to explain the following stylized pattern in the development of contractual governance and industrial organization. Contractual governance in many emerging economies is characterized by relational contracting. Coincident with relational contracts are large, diversified organizations — often referred to as business groups. As institutions and market intermediaries develop, a process of transition from relational contracting to arms‐length explicit contracting takes place. During this phase relational and explicit contracts complement each other. Business groups initially expand in size, scope and increase the strength of ties. As development proceeds, a threshold is crossed after which business groups begin to unravel. This process of transition in contractual governance is often accompanied by a period of rapid growth, which eventually comes to a stop. JEL classification: L22, L14, O17.     

Commitment and discretion in contracts: theory and evidence from retirement plans*

We consider a firm's problem of incentivizing its workforce through relational contracts, when workers effectively face a shorter time horizon due to possible separation shocks. Commitment issues then generate a trade-off between efficiency and distribution, which affects both performance and profits. Profits under relational contracting can exceed those under formal contracting, despite lower performance, when discounting is moderate, firm bargaining power is weak, and shocks are likely. Using a matched employer–retirement plan dataset, and interpreting discretionary profit-sharing plans and employee stock ownership plans as relational and formal contracting, respectively, we find some support for our predictions.     

Limited liability and the underlying-asset constraint: on the use of share-derivative contracts to resolve agency problems

The issue of whether agency problems can be resolved by using standard derivative contracts continues to interest students of incentive structures of organizations. In this paper, we identify under limited liability a necessary and sufficient condition for standard share-derivative contracts to resolve moral hazard problems. This condition is remarkably simple: in addition to having large enough expected profit, the insiders of the firm must be able to hold combinations of call and put options in excess of the available underlying assets. Feasibility of delivery makes this condition not credible in the capital markets. Therefore, to circumvent this constraint one must have resort to private arrangements. This explains why incentive contracts often involve elements such as bonuses, penalties, and promotions, that are not able to be mimicked by standard derivative contracts.     

Group insurance and lending with endogenous social collateral

We construct a dynamic model of self-enforcing insurance provision and lending to a community of borrowers who are connected by risk-sharing arrangements that are themselves subject to enforcement problems, as in Kocherlakota (1996). We show that an outside lender offering constant-consumption contracts can earn a higher profit if he conditions his repeated interactions with each borrower on the history of his interactions with all the group members (a joint liability contract), rather than on his history with that borrower only (individual liability contracts). This result holds even in the absence of informational asymmetries. The observation driving it is that with individual liability contracts, a joint welfare-maximizing group may prefer to have one or more group members default on their contracts, so that the group can consume a mix of outside funds and the defaulters' stochastic income. One contribution of our work is to give precise economic content to the concept of “social collateral” as the per-agent surplus from group risk-sharing over autarky. The group can deter its members from defaulting on their contracts with the principal by threatening to reduce that surplus.     

Unit Versus Ad Valorem Taxes: The Private Ownership of Monopoly in General Equilibrium

Employing a general equilibrium framework, Blackorby and Murty prove that, with a monopoly and under 100% profit taxation and uniform lump‐sum transfers, the utility possibility sets of economies with unit and ad valorem taxes are identical. This welfare equivalence is in contrast to most previous studies, which demonstrate the superiority of the ad valorem tax in a partial equilibrium framework. In this paper, we relax the assumption of 100% profit taxation and allow the consumers to receive profit incomes from ownership of shares in the monopoly firm. We find that, under certain regularity conditions, for any fixed vector of profit shares, the utility possibility sets of economies with unit and ad valorem taxes are not generally identical. But it does not imply that one completely dominates the other. Rather, the two utility possibility frontiers cross each other. Additionally, employing a standard partial equilibrium welfare analysis, we show that the Marshallian social surpluses resulting from the two tax structures are identical when the government can implement unrestricted transfers.     

The response to incentives and contractual efficiency: Evidence from a field experiment

We use data from a field experiment to estimate worker reaction to incentives and the optimality of piece-rate contracts. Our estimate of the elasticity of output with respect to piece rates is 0.39. Regression methods cannot predict performance under hypothetical contracts. Therefore, we apply structural econometric methods (without imposing profit maximization) to evaluate observed-contract optimality. Using profit as a metric, we estimate the distance between observed and profit-maximizing contracts to be negligible. This suggests that observed contracts closely approximate optimal contracts under asymmetric information about worker ability. Under complete information, the firm could increase expected profits by 14 percent keeping workers indifferent to the observed piece-rate contract. Profits could increase between 44 and 49 percent if the firm exploited information about ability to reduce worker utility to the outside alternative.     

契约视角下的PPP项目承包商治理机制研究

本文从契约关系的视角研究了PPP项目承包商的治理机制问题,包括正式契约关系治理、剩余权利配置和关系契约治理,这3种治理机制分别对应着双方合作内容的不确定性程度。研究表明,正式契约适合对业主-承包商契约中确定性内容的治理,即利用明确的契约条款对双方合作关系中的行为风险或敲竹杠风险进行抑制。关系契约可以建立在事后双方可观察到的结果的基础上,适合对较不确定内容的治理。剩余权力的配置是一种弹性治理机制,适用于任何无法描述、无法判断或无法评价结果的不确定性内容,它通过对项目剩余索取权和剩余控制权的对称配置,提高承包商的主动合作性。     

NONSTATIONARY RELATIONAL CONTRACTS WITH ADVERSE SELECTION*

I develop a model of nonstationary relational contracts in order to study internal wage dynamics. Workers are heterogeneous, and each worker’s ability is both private information and fixed for all time. Learning therefore occurs within employment relationships. The inferences, however, are confounded by moral hazard. Incentive provision is restricted by an inability to commit to long‐term contracts. Relational contracts, which must be self‐enforcing, must therefore be used. The wage dynamics in the optimal contract, which are pinned down by the tension between incentive provision and contractual enforcement, are intimately related to the learning effect.     

The self-enforcing provisions of oil and gas unit operating agreements: theory and evidence

This article extends the existing theory and empirical investigationof unitization contracts. It highlights the importance of incentive-compatibilityand self-enforcement and the bargaining problems faced in achievingviable, long-term contracts. We argue that only if the partiesto a unitization contract have unit production shares that arethe same as their cost shares will the contract be incentivecompatible. Using a database of 60 unit operating agreements,we measure the industry's actual behavior against the principlesof production from a common pool. Our survey of units that haveonly one production phase and that are relatively homogeneousreveals that such equal sharing rules are always found and theyappear to encourage the parties to behave optimally. In morecomplex units with multiple production phases and/or separateconcentrations of oil and gas (gas caps) we find deviationsfrom the theoretical ideal. In the case of multiphase units,we find equal cost and production shares within phases, butnot across phases. A preset trigger for shifting from one productionphase to the next helps to maintain optimal behavior. For gascap units, however, we generally do not find the equal sharingrule. Conflicts and rent dissipation follow as illustrated bythe case of the Prudhoe Bay Unit. The article describes thedesirable contract rules for avoiding moral hazard. It alsoshows how the effects of those rules can be replicated in difficultsituations.     

Foreign direct investment, political resentment and the privatization process in eastern Europe

Foreign direct investment has been disappointingly low in eastern Europe, which has been reluctant to make existing assets available to foreign investors. To mitigate any such resentment, we propose a participation model in which foreign investors compete for joint venture contracts. Host governments contribute existing assets and receive non-voting stocks. Foreign investors, contributing capital and know-how, receive voting shares and control of operational decisions.{}This has several advantages over the cash sale of assets to foreigners. First, stock flow problems are eased, raising both asset prices and FDI flows. Second, by retaining some stake in the firm, transition countries share in the risk premium. Third, governments can hand over their shares to households, creating private collateral to foster new small businesses. Fourth, and crucially, compared to cash sales the auction of participation contracts offers higher privatization revenues in cases where governments cannot assess investors' knowledge and abilities. This reduces the risk of selling the family silver too cheaply, and should alleviate the host countries' resentment.     

A costly state verification model with diversity of opinions

Summary. In simple models of borrowing and lending with ex-post asymmetric information, Gale and Hellwig (1985) and Williamson (1986) have shown that optimal debt contracts are simple debt contracts where borrowers repay a fixed interest rate whenever possible and lenders seize all the profit when borrowers default. In this note, we depart from their works by assuming that borrowers and lenders have heterogeneous beliefs, and show that simple debt contracts do not necessarily survive as optimal contracts.JEL Classification Numbers: G3, D8.     

最优农业契约与中国农业产业化模式

本文在一个统一的关系契约分析框架下,比较了单期和多期条件下"农户+市场"、"龙头企业+农户"和"龙头企业+农场"三种主要的农业产业化模式及其衍生模式的生产效率,并分析了产权、声誉、抵押和风险态度对最优农业契约的影响。我们的分析表明,在单期条件下,由于契约不完全和敲竹杠效应,所有模式都无法实现最优效率;在多期条件下,如果贴现率足够低,"龙头企业+农户"和"龙头企业+农场"这两种模式都可以实现最优效率;如果市场价格波动比较大,则"龙头企业+农场"模式优于"龙头企业+农户"模式。我们还分析了农户的转售成本对契约效率的影响,并提供了支持本文结论的典型案例。     

ON FINANCE AS A THEORY OF TFP,CROSS‐INDUSTRY PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES,AND ECONOMIC RENTS*

We develop a theory of capital‐market imperfections to study how the ability to enforce contracts affects resource allocation across entrepreneurs of different productivities, and across industries with different needs for external financing. The theory implies that countries with a poor ability to enforce contracts are characterized by the use of inefficient technologies, low aggregate TFP, large differences in labor productivity across industries, and large employment shares in industries with low productivity. These implications are supported by the empirical evidence. The theory also suggests that entrepreneurs have a vested interest in maintaining a status quo with low enforcement.     

Renegotiation on incomplete procurement contracts

This article examines the impact of incomplete contracts on procurement costs in road construction auctions. Ex ante contracts in these auctions often fail to specify all of the potential construction contingencies, and consequently, changes in scope are necessary after construction begins. Using Vermont road construction contract data, this study finds evidence that there is a statistically significant difference in costs of firms between auctions with and without extra work adjustments. Substantial adaptation costs are responsible for the higher procurement outlays in incomplete contract. I also find that bidders inflate their bids to incorporate risk premiums in incomplete contracts; however, my estimates suggest that this bidding behaviour does not affect their profit margins.