Currency Invoicing in Japanese Exports to East Asia: Implications for Yen Internationalization

The present paper examines currency invoicing in Japanese exports to East Asia by applying the pricing-to-market (PTM) theory. The notable aims of the present paper are to: (i) use a number of sample commodities obtained from the data on monthly series of exports based on the nine-digit Harmonized System; and (ii) examine currency invoicing practices of Japanese exporters by making a distinction between the long-run and short-run PTM under the framework of the error-correction model. Contrary to the results of previous reports, our study shows that Japanese exporters of electric machinery tend to stabilize US Dollar (USD)-denominated export prices in the short run in East Asian markets, implying that electric machinery products tend to be invoiced in USD in exports to East Asia. Given the USD-invoicing practices by Japanese electric machinery exporters, it is hard to expect the further use of the Yen in trade transactions because the electric machinery industry plays a major role in facilitating trade and investment between Japan and East Asia.     

Overvaluation of the Real Exchange Rate and Export-related Loans in Korea

This paper discusses exchange rates, finance for exports and plant and equipment investment for export industries in Korea. The real effective exchange rate of the won was substantially overvalued in 1991 using 1985 as the base year. In addition, the amount of low interest export loans has dropped substantially since 1987. These factors are some of the most important reasons for the sluggish growth of Korean exports in recent years.     

Demonstration or congestion? Export spillovers in Sweden

A key feature of the Swedish economy over the last two decades has been the rapid internationalisation of its economy, both through FDI and exports. In this paper we consider their inter-relationship, examining whether there have been spillovers from foreign firms to the export performance of domestic firms. We also contribute to the empirical modelling of export spillovers. We do this by exploiting information on whether foreign MNE sales are intra-firm or inter-firm, and by allowing for heterogeneity in the characteristics of the sender and receiver of spillovers. Our results indicate that foreign MNEs had positive effects on Swedish exports.     

Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether and to what extent Chinese and Korean products in the machinery industry compete with each other in the Japanese market. Empirical tests of panel data of 16 machinery products from 2000Q1 to 2012Q2 show that a decrease in the unit prices of Chinese exports leads to a decrease in the demand for Korean exports. In contrast, a decrease in the unit prices of Korean exports does not lead to a decrease in the demand for Chinese exports. In addition, lagged Chinese prices have bigger impacts on current Korean prices than lagged Korean prices on current Chinese prices. Simulation experiments investigating the impacts of a change in exchange rates on the Chinese and Korean export volumes also confirm that the Korean variables do not affect the Chinese export volume as much as the Chinese variables affect the Korean export volume. Overall, the findings in the present paper indicate that China has already emerged as a formidable competitor to Korea in the Japanese machinery market.     

Foreign direct investment, processing trade, and the sophistication of China's exports

China's export structure has shown a rapid shift towards more sophisticated industries. While some believe that this trend is a result of processing trade and foreign direct investment, the evidence is mixed. This paper examines variations in level of export sophistication across China's manufacturing industries. We find that an industry's level of export sophistication is positively related to the share of wholly foreign owned enterprises from OECD countries and the share of processing exports of foreign-invested enterprises, and negatively related to the share of processing exports of indigenous Chinese enterprises. Evidence from the relative export prices of Chinese goods, which measure within-product export sophistication, shows a similar pattern.     

知识产权保护、行业特征与我国制造业出口比较优势

文章旨在分析知识产权保护能否成为我国制造业出口新的比较优势,利用我国1992-2012年对140个国家或地区的24个制造业行业的出口数据实证检验了三个理论命题。研究发现,知识产权保护对制造业出口比较优势的影响存在门槛,当知识产权保护程度跨过“知识产权保护门槛”后,知识产权保护与行业特征的协同效应才能有利于形成新的出口比较优势;从R&D投入强度、专属性投资强度以及关键要素投入强度三个方面,把我国24个制造业行业分为高行业特征和低行业特征分别进行估计后得到不同结论,低R&D投入强度和低关键要素投入强度制造业行业中,知识产权保护与行业特征的协同作用显著的有利于我国对贸易伙伴出口的增长,相反则不利于我国对贸易伙伴出口的增长。从我国出口方向来看,知识产权保护与产业特征的协同作用,对知识产权保护程度高于我国的地区来说,不能够显著提升出口比较优势。     

The evolution of value added in assembly operations: the case of China and Mexico

China and Mexico embarked, around the early 1980s, on the process of liberalization of trade and FDI and established some export oriented industries through assembly operations with the help of FDI. Both countries had the same objective of increasing value added in export processing industries. The authors examine the comparative achievements of their common objectives in the light of the export oriented strategy hypothesis. Applying the indicators of Revealed Comparative Advantage to exports and imports, the authors show that while there are some similarities in the performance of the two countries, there are also striking differences. Both have managed to increase manufactured exports, particularly in IT products, significantly during 1990s. Both, but particularly China, have developed comparative advantage in export and production of many industries, which had been initiated through import substitution. However, Mexico has achieved little, compared with China, in increasing value added in exports and in developing comparative advantage in production in assembly operations. Further, unlike China, since the early years of the 2010 decade it has not been able to sustain its rapid export growth.     

China’s exports in a protectionist world

Tariffs, currency wars, and protectionism pose risks for Chinese firms. In theory tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations exert equivalent effects on export volumes. This paper estimates tariff and exchange rate elasticities for China’s exports. The results indicate that, while exchange rates matter, tariffs increases deter exports almost three times as much as equivalent exchange rate appreciations do. The results also indicate that China’s flagship industries such as electronics and machinery are exposed to tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations. The paper then considers how China can promote freer trade to mitigate risks and reduce uncertainty.     

Multinational enterprises, regional economic integration, and export-platform production in the host countries: An empirical analysis for the US and Japanese corporations

Multinational Enterprises, Regional Economic Integration and Export-Platform Production in the Host Countries: An Empirical Analysis for the US and Japanese Corporations. — This paper analyzes determinants of export orientation of overseas affiliates of US and Japanese MNEs for the 1982–1994 period. The author contends that production geared to MNEs’ home market and that production oriented to third-country markets are determined by different factors. The empirical analysis finds the home-market-oriented production concentrated in countries that offer low-cost workforce, enjoy geographical proximity or preferential access to the home market. The location of third-country-market-oriented exports is influenced more by strategic factors such as participation in regional trading blocs and preferential access to major markets than factor costs considerations.     

我国出口退税政策的减排效果评估——基于钢铁行业的经验分析

中国是世界第一出口大国,商品出口贸易中隐含了大量的碳排放。出口退税政策作为一项促进经济增长和改善贸易结构的措施,是否对节能减排也有一定的作用?本文以钢铁行业产品出口为例,采用倍差法对我国实施的出口退税率调整政策的减排效果进行评估,结果发现,出口退税率的调整能显著地降低出口隐含碳的增长率,相比未调低出口退税率的产品而言,调低出口退税率的商品出口隐含碳增长率降低39%,因而出口退税政策能够显著影响出口隐含碳排放,从而可以把出口退税政策作为一项节能减排的重要政策工具。     

中国对东盟建筑起重机械产品出口贸易现状及策略分析

近年来，东盟十国经济扩张迅速，基础设施投资日趋增多，由此我国对东盟建筑起重机械出口呈现出强劲增长、渠道广阔、产品结构多元化的特征。根据出口现状、供需趋势和有利条件的分析，中国建筑起重机械产品向东盟出口的策略是：优化产品结构、重视市场调研、挖掘贸易潜力、谋求互利双赢。     

中国制造业产品出口的“母市场效应”——基于ISIC面板数据的研究

本文采用2002～2008年中国与OECD国家双边贸易ISIC(国际标准工业分类法)两位数面板数据对中国制造业各行业"母市场效应"的存在性进行检验。检验结果发现食品、饮料和烟草制造业、木制品业、纸制品和印刷品制造业、化学产品制造业、其他非金属矿产品制造业、机械设备制造业、运输设备制造业、杂项制品及废弃资源回收业这8个行业存在显著的"母市场效应",而纺织、服装及皮革制造业、炼油及核燃料的制造、橡胶和塑料、基本金属和金属制品等行业则不存在"母市场效应",其中炼油及核燃料的制造、橡胶和塑料这两个行业甚至呈现微弱的"逆母市场效应"。检验结果对中国扩大内需同时带来新的出口优势的部门提供了政策支持的理论依据。     

我国工业出口结构合理性分析及建议

本文根据近年来我国工业出口贸易的数据资料,测算了其贸易结构变化指数、出口合理度指数和贸易竞争力指数。通过对计算结果的分析,我们发现近年来我国工业出口结构出现优化趋势,产品出口合理度指数不断提高,部分工业支柱行业产品贸易竞争力增强;但需要注意的是,目前部分出口产品的竞争力与其支柱产业的地位不对称,尤其是技术密集型产品的竞争力不强等。最后,文章在此基础上,提出优化我国工业出口结构、提高国际竞争力的对策。     

The role of foreign direct investment in Indonesia's manufacturing exports

This article examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to the changing structure of Indonesia's manufacturing exports. It uses industry-level data from 1990 to 2008, classified by factor intensity. Our analysis reveals that FDI promotes exports in most panel observations, especially exports from physical-capital-intensive (PCI), human-capital-intensive (HCI) and technology-intensive (TI) industries. Yet by applying a differentiated cross-section-effect model, we determine that the export-generating potential of FDI is stronger in PCI, HCI and TI industries than in natural-resource-intensive or unskilled-labour-intensive industries, in which Indonesia has a comparative advantage. We also assess the influence of other determinants of export performance – namely, private domestic capital investment, GDP growth and exchange rates. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to sustain Indonesia's export performance.     

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper uses cumulative export experience functions to explore the structural dynamics of South Africa's exports for the period 1990–2003. It finds a large spread of emerging non‐traditional accelerating export products across industry clusters of different factor intensities, steadily increasing their proportion in total exports and her main markets. Shift‐share and correlation analyses show that increased intra‐industry specialisation and trade within import competing product groups explain the structural change in the direction of export diversity. With respect to quality, as measured by relative unit prices of exports and imports in intra‐industry trade with the EU and the US, a relative improvement of export quality is found.     

Productivity spillovers from foreign multinationals and trade protection: firm‐level analysis of Vietnamese manufacturing

This paper examines how the presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) affects productivity in domestic private firms in Vietnamese manufacturing in 2005–10. The paper also examines how import protection has affected these productivity spillovers and how spillovers from wholly foreign MNEs and joint ventures differ. The most consistent result suggests wholly foreign MNEs impart negative spillovers while joint ventures tend to generate positive spillovers. Theory and random effects estimates also indicate that import protection reduces local firm productivity and weakens the effect of spillovers from all MNEs; but this result is not obtained when a fixed effects estimator is used. Results are similar in samples of labour‐intensive industries, which include close to three fourths of all sample firms, but differ markedly for more capital‐intensive groups.     

隐性知识对出口竞争力的重要作用——中国电力设备出口竞争力研究

近年来,原材料价格上涨压力、产品附加值不高是我国制造行业面临的普遍问题,电力设备制造出口也遇到同样的问题。本文在RCA方法的基础上,借鉴了管理学的隐性知识理论,说明中国作为制造大国,如果能在前期知识技术积累的基础上,运用现有的技术和资金实力通过开拓发展中国家市场,实现显性知识到隐性知识的转化,将能增强企业出口竞争力,促进产业转型战略的实施。本文同时通过中国与伊朗电力设备贸易、中国目前电力制造的现状和问题,说明隐性知识对于中国电力设备制造企业提升竞争力的关键作用,这是对我国企业如何获得国际市场竞争优势的有益探索。     

Income and Price Elasticities of China＇s Exports

The appearance of new product varieties and improvements in the quality of goods have both played key roles in the rapid growth of China's exports. However, these two important elements have not been formally integrated into the demand equations for China's exports. As we demonstrate in this paper, income elasticity will be underestimated if new varieties of goods and quality improvements are omitted in price index and quantity index calculations, which are necessary for estimating the export demand function. Moreover, the faster new product varieties enter export markets, the greater the underestimation will be. In this paper, we develop an export demand equation that takes into account new product varieties and improvements in quality, and then calculate the demand function for China's exports using the data from 1992 to 2006. According to our estimation, the short‐term income elasticity of demand for China's exports is approximately 2.34, and the short‐term price elasticity is approximately –0.65. Our estimation predicts an increase in China's export value in the case of an RMB appreciation or export rebate rates reduction in the short term, due to the low price elasticity of China's exports, whose absolute value is less than 1. Our findings are novel and could have significant policy implications.     

中国仅仅是制造大国吗——基于出口增加值测算角度

文章从出口增加值测算角度,对1995-2011年中国出口中的制造和服务含量进行分析。结果表明:（1）中国服务出口总值基本赶上甚至一度超越了制造出口总值,中国同样也是"服务大国",其中由制造业间接出口的服务含量超过了由服务业直接出口的服务含量;（2）中国服务出口的国内增值能力弱于制造出口,日本、韩国、美国、中国台湾、德国等发达国家或地区是中国出口价值的主要外部来源地,中国本土的制造和服务在全球化分工中需要实现自我提升;（3）中国产品在主要进口市场所占份额整体上呈现出上升趋势,相比国际服务市场,中国产品在国际制造市场上拥有更大的覆盖面和影响力。文章的研究为制造和服务产业融合发展提供了新的理论和数据支撑。     

Natural resources and non-cooperative trade policy

When looking at the conditions of trade in natural resources the world appears upside down: tariff protection in natural resources sectors is generally lower than for overall merchandise trade, while export restrictions are twice as likely as in other sectors. On the other hand, tariff escalation is significant in natural resources sectors, where materials in their raw state face, on average, lower duties than in their processed form. In this paper, we discuss how export taxes and tariff escalation may be the result of an uncooperative trade policy. Specifically, tariff escalation and export taxes can be “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies because governments may be tempted to use them to alter the relative price of exports to their advantage (terms-of-trade effect) or to expand the domestic processing industry at the expenses of foreign production (production relocation effect). In equilibrium, these policies offset each other in a Prisoners’ Dilemma situation, where trade is inefficiently low.