Einfluss der CO2-Zertifikatspreise auf die Stromgestehungskosten im deutschen Energiemix

In the past, electricity generation costs in Germany’s energy mix depended for the most part on the development of fossil fuel prices. Despite the strongly increasing share of renewable energies in the energy mix, the generation of electricity from fossil fuel power plants, especially brown and bituminous coal power plants, still dominates in Germany today. Alongside fossil fuels as an increasing cost factor, the price of CO₂ is also gaining importance as a price factor in the production of electricity from fossil fuel power plants. The establishment of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in 2005 formed the basis of CO₂ emissions pricing, and was oriented on the emission reduction targets of the European Union. Although the price of CO₂-certificates in free trade is shown on several stock exchanges, the CO₂ price is still policy driven. The amount of free allocated and traded CO₂-certificates is set on a European policy level. Current decisions on temporary limitations of the trade volume have corresponding effects on exchange prices. This article aims to investigate the impact of CO₂-certificate prices on electricity generation costs in the German energy mix. Comparing real CO₂ prices to forecasts for 2013 provides findings on the effects that the political decisions of the European Parliament with regard to the limitation of the trade volume of available CO₂-certificates have on electricity generation costs in the German energy mix.     

CO2-Einsparpotenziale des Energieträgers Erdgas

Given the governmental climate targets, the question arises how these targets can be achieved without affecting a secure and cheap energy supply. As natural gas causes less carbon emissions than any other fossil fuel it might be able to make a contribution in this regard. Currently, in the generation of heat and power natural gas plays a significant role, which will further increase in the future. Using several scenarios, we predict the development of the importance of natural gas and the consequences for carbon emissions. The calculations show that the share of natural gas for the supply of heat will increase from 46 % to 56 %. Efficiency increases together with changes in the structure of power generation can reduce heating-related carbon emissions by 8.3 % until 2020. For power generation, we calculate alternative scenarios. If the current structure of power generation is held constant, carbon emissions will increase by 0.8 % p.a. If instead natural gas completely replaces coal and lignite, the carbon emissions will be reduced by 1.9 % per year.     

开放的竞争市场维系能源供需均衡——《BP世界能源统计2012》解析

2011年全球能源行业跌宕起伏,但总体数据显示出一如往年的发展轨迹.全球GDP增速为3.7％,略高于2.5％的一次能源消费增长率,GDP增速和能源消费增长与过去10年的平均水平接近.2011年,政治动荡引发石油价格飙升,原油均价创历史新高;石油消费增长疲软,仅增长0.7％;尽管利比亚和其他一些地区的供应中断,在欧佩克增产的带动下,全球石油产量仍然增加了109.6万桶/日(1.3％).2011年全球天然气生产和消费增速均趋于缓和,美国市场一枝独秀,产量创历史新高,欧盟的天然气产量和消费量均为有史以来的最大降幅.煤炭以5.4％的增速再次成为增长最快的化石能源;核能发电量下降4.3％,可再生能源发电量则强劲增长17.7％.2011年,市场以其灵活性成功地应对了大规模供应中断,燃料替换、供需侧的反应以及贸易结构优化发挥了各自的作用,能源价格成为引导能源资源再分配的重要信号.     

上网电价政策对发电企业成本的影响分析

通过对我国上网电价测算方法的比较,得到相应电价机制下发电企业的电价成本模型。不同电价机制下的电力工程造价系数说明,只有标杆电价政策对发电工程造价即发电项目固定成本存在明显约束,而经营期电价政策可以相对减缓发电企业电力工程造价见涨的趋势,也说明事前定价机制下发电企业降低成本的努力程度更大。发电企业减少成本的努力程度与单机容量和年利用小时数成正比。电价政策的改革调整激励发电企业采用高参数、大容量、低煤耗的大机组。从电价政策对发电企业运营成本的影响来看,不同电价政策郝对发电企业减少其运营成本有激励作用。近年标杆上网电价水平的调整能给企业带来更多的收益,而煤炭价格的上涨进一步加大了发电企业的成本控制压力。     

中国天然气发电产业发展现状及展望

中国燃气发电装机及发电量占比较小,发电用气占比低于全球平均水平;发电设备利用小时数较低,平均上网电价较高。当前中国天然气发电产业面临的挑战包括:政策体系尚不健全,产业定位不清晰;天然气资源保障存在不确定性;气电燃料与设备运维成本偏高;上网电价的定价机制尚待理顺;电力市场改革快速推进,市场竞争更加激烈。中国电力需求将延续增长态势,电源结构向低碳转型;中国天然气行业处于高速发展期,气源供应保障能力进一步提升;供给宽松期叠加市场化改革加速期,促进发电用气成本下降;燃气发电电力工程造价呈下降趋势,这些都是天然气发电产业的机遇。展望"十四五"期间,实现"十三五"气电装机规划目标存在较大难度;受经济性制约,"十四五"期间气电发展节奏的不确定性较大;生态环境约束背景下,中长期天然气发电发展空间依然广阔;中国天然气发电产业发展路径将呈现多元化趋势。     

对我国电力发展战略的一些思考

能源问题是我国发展方略的首要问题。为了阐明新时期我国能源发展问题,根据我国的实际情况,分析了我国化石能源利用的危机,阐述了水能利用是能源发展方略之首,大力发展具有固有安全性的核电,大型风电与小风电同时并进,积极推进太阳能发电等问题。分析了当今煤电存在的“市场煤,计划电”的矛盾,并给出了煤炭与发电企业逐渐融合的解决方案。最后总结出实现我国电力的科学发展应该坚持的原则。     

分布式电源谐波机理与抑制技术综述

分布式电源作为一种环境适应性强的清洁能源,具有就近利用率高、供电灵活等特点,但因其传播特征复杂,分散性强,使电网面临着新的谐波问题.首先,概述了分布式电源谐波的危害及其产生原因,指出电力电子装置是造成分布式电源谐波的重要因素之一;其次,对光伏发电系统、风力发电系统、微型燃气轮机系统和燃料电池系统4类电源产生的谐波机理进...     

Vertical and Horizontal Scope Economies in the Regulated U.S. Electric Power Industry

This paper investigates vertical economies between generation and distribution of electric power, and horizontal economies between different types of power generation in the U.S. electric utility industry. Our quadratic cost function model includes three generation output measures (hydro, nuclear and fossil fuels), which allows us to analyze the effect that generation mix has on vertical economies. Our results provide (sample mean) estimates of vertical economies of 8.1% and horizontal economies of 5.4%. An extensive sensitivity analysis is used to show how the scope measures vary across alternative model specifications and firm types.     

电网企业优化购电成本方法研究与实证分析

通过购电成本结构分析,指出了当前发电计划编制及执行中存在的问题和当前发电计划编制对电网购电费的影响。重点研究了有关降低电网购电成本的方法及实证,并为政府价格相关部门提出创建节能型社会的政策建议。     

Environmental implications of market structure: Shale gas and electricity markets

We examine the environmental implications of market structure using the exogenous variation in the price of natural gas paid by U.S. electric power producers in the aftermath of the Shale Boom. We find that electric power producers were more responsive to fuel prices in vertically integrated markets than in restructured markets, and we explore the underlying factors driving this heterogeneity in responses. Although differences in the capacity of the most efficient gas power plants between the two market structures are the most important factor, we consider others. The heterogeneity in the response of power plant operators to fuel prices has material implications for carbon dioxide emissions.     

统计口径变化对我国电力行业CO2减排相关指标的影响

我国电力行业一直将相互关联的发电业务、供热业务分别统计,与国际通行的统计口径不同。通过理论推导,量化计算了将供热与发电合并统计后的基础数据,分析了将发电业务、供热业务合并统计对煤耗率、化石能源发电量占比、单位电量CO2排放强度等指标的影响。指出了业务结构对我国电力行业CO2减排相关统计指标的影响因素,并对“十二五”以及2020年有关指标进行了测算。     

Status,Daten und Entwicklungen der globalen Energieversorgung

Global energy consumption is growing. The growth in energy consumption is now covered roughly equally by renewable energy resources and fossil energy resources. Nevertheless, crude oil, natural gas and coal continue to form the backbone of energy supplies. This means that the dependency of energy supplies on fossil energy resources will continue for the foreseeable future. In Germany as well, there is no end in sight of the country decreasing its high dependency on imports of fossil energy resources despite the high growth rate of renewables—and due in part to the decline in domestic production and the withdrawal from nuclear power generation. Crude oil, natural gas, hard coal and lignite with a share of around 80%, still make the largest contribution to the German and global primary energy consumption.All of the renewables together cover around 17% of global energy consumption. Despite the almost inexhaustible potential, making energy generation from renewable sources available at a large scale and commensurate with demand is still in its infancy. By way of contrast, very large reserves of fossil energy resources have already been developed for many years, and are being used in growing quantities. The global comparison of already produced and therefore consumed energy resources and the still existing reserves and resources, reveal that large non-depleted energy potential still exists in all regions around the world. Whilst the potential hardly appears to be touched in Austral-Asia, in the CIS and North America, only a small portion has been produced to date even in Europe. This wealth in resources is primarily attributable to the large deposits of coal found on all continents, which, unlike conventional crude oil and natural gas, are not restricted to a few special regions. Although the Middle East is an extremely important region for crude oil and natural gas, the minor coal reserves in the area mean that its overall potential is comparatively small.     

多期生物质发电燃料供应链优化

随着我国生物质发电产业的迅速发展，生物质发电装机容量逐年增加，然而生物质电厂必须依靠政府补贴才能维持正常运行。本文针对生物质电厂盈利能力差这一现实问题，以电厂利润最大为目标，考虑燃料的收集、运输、预处理、贮存及使用环节，建立了生物质发电燃料供应链的多期非线性优化模型。研究在现有的发电技术和自然资源条件下，电厂能否通过调整发电量、燃料收购量及燃料掺烧比例实现更高的盈利水平。本文通过将模型应用于东北某生物质电厂，求出电厂最大年利润和相应的决策变量值。证明了在其他条件不变的情况下，电厂可以通过改变燃料收购和使用模式，提升其盈利能力。     

Local Energy Markets*

In current power markets, the bulk of electricity is sold wholesale and transported to consumers via long-distance transmission lines. Recently, decentralized local energy markets have evolved, often as isolated networks based on solar generation. We analyze strategic pricing, investment, and welfare in local energy markets. We show that local energy markets yield competitive equilibrium prices and provide efficient investment incentives. Yet, we find that strategic behavior leads to allocative inefficiency. We propose a clearing mechanism that induces truth-telling behavior and restores first-best welfare.     

Local measured telephone service in the USA: A quantitative analysis

The USA has steadfastly held to a flat rate for local telephone service, whereas most other countries are characterized by a user-sensitive (measured service) system of pricing. Economic theory suggests some method of measured service pricing more accurately reflects the true costs of local service. This article seeks to determine how many US consumers could be induced to switch to measured service pricing, and using ordinary least squares, derives a model of the demand for measured service. The factors are identified that will induce the US population to move towards a measured service rate structure. The findings indicate that consumers are quite responsive to both relative price (between a local flat rate and a measured service rate) and advertising.     

关于输配电价几个重要问题的探讨

我国电力企业将要由传统的垂直垄断的模式转变为网厂分开、竞价上网的模式。电网公司作为一个独立的经营实体分离开来,有着独立的收益需求。在市场运营过程中,通过输配电价取得收益就成了电网公司取得收益的主要手段。在输配电价的制订过程之中,管制方式、输配电成本、输电定价方法、价格水平及电网投资、输配电价价区、电网提供的辅助服务等六个问题十分重要。文中就这六个问题的解决作了一些有价值的探讨。     

Wasserstoff als Kraftstoff im Deutschen Verkehrssektor

Hydrogen is a basic product of the (petro-)chemical industry. Furthermore it can be used as a fuel for vehicles. One main advantage of hydrogen as a fuel for drive trains is the possibility to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly compared to fossil fuels and avoid other local emissions. Against this background, the goal of this paper is to compare fuel cells driven by hydrogen in respect of environmental parameters. The emissions of these options are not only produced during driving and therefore this paper applies a cradle to grave approach (i.e. life cycle assessment). Greenhouse gas emissions and acidification as well as nitrogen oxides are analysed. To allow a fair comparison in total ten different systems including fossil fuels are analysed (five with hydrogen and five alternatives). That includes the entire life cycle of the car (i.e. production, use, and disposal) assuming a defined amount of kilometres to be driven during the technical lifetime. For a full assessment the energy needed to produce and run the car, the fuel production as well as the fuel distribution are considered. The results show that electrical drive trains could reduce specific greenhouse gas emissions significantly if renewable sources of energy are used. For the acidification some fossil options were better than options powered by renewable energies.     

Opportunity Cost Pass‐Through from Fossil Fuel Market Prices to Procurement Costs of the U.S. Power Producers

This paper investigates the transmission of fossil fuel commodity spot market price changes to procurement costs of U.S. power producers. We measure and compare the speed and magnitude with which spot prices predict procurement costs using restricted access fuel price data. Natural gas spot prices are quickly reflected in procurement costs. Coal spot prices offer very little predictive power to coal procurement costs. Although not causal, the empirical results also show differences across regulatory status. These findings may have implications for the electricity market deregulation literature that creates marginal cost curves as a competitive benchmark.     

Interconnection in international telecommunications: An empirical investigation of United States settlement rates

Several national governments have expressed concern at the inability of carriers to negotiate lower accounting rates. Ergas and Patterson (1991) and Frieden (1997) argue that it is only on bilateral markets with facilities-based competition at both ends that conditions favour accounting rates reductions. In the absence of facilities-based competition, Frieden also suggests that service providers, such as resellers, may provide a second best opportunity to place downward pressure on accounting rates. This study extends the work of Ergas and Patterson by developing an econometric model of settlement rate pricing. The model is estimated on data for 27 US bilateral telephone markets for the period 1985 to 1995. Parameter estimates are used to identify settlement rate determinants, and so highlight impediments to efficient international telecommunications pricing. A novel feature of the model is the inclusion of a resale market structure variable.     

Valuation of venture capital investments: empirical evidence

Using the valuation data of 421 US venture capital transactions and 176 initial public offerings, we test a simple binomial valuation model in modelling the risk‐return profiles of venture capital investments. We find that the model is consistent with the previous knowledge on the risk‐return profile of venture capital investments. The results also confirm the hypotheses that early‐stage ventures have higher implied risk and implied volatility of the returns than more established ones.
Additionally, we analyse the predictive power of the binomial pricing model and compare it to corresponding 'traditional' models that utilize risk‐adjusted rates of return. We construct one‐step ex post return forecasts for the sample ventures and compare the results to the actually realized returns. The findings indicate that the fit of the binomial model is better than the fit of the corresponding 'traditional' models.
The results imply that option‐based methods have empirical relevance in the pricing analysis of privately held companies and projects. Furthermore, practitioners can benefit from using these methods when analysing the risk‐return structure of private companies and R&D projects.