我国宏观经济政策措施对国际收支平衡的影响分析

本文在分析我国国际收支状况、研究宏观经济与国际收支相互影响的关系中,运用国际收支差率、外汇储备率、外经比率等新定义的指标分析国际收支平衡等问题,进而探讨并提出了世界金融危机时期我国应实施低水平的国际收支平衡和内外均衡等观点和政策建议。     

建立长效的国际收支平衡机制

国际收支平衡是我国四大宏观调控目标之一,也是十八大以来提出的“五大平衡”之一。本文对我国国际收支格局的演变历程和发展趋势以及我国国际收支管理面临的新形势和新问题进行了深入分析,并建议通过主动管理国际收支平衡、管理外汇储备余额、选择合适的国际收支结构、增强人民币汇率弹性等方式,建立我国长效的国际收支平衡机制。     

世界金融危机时期我国国际收支状况及其宏观政策研究

本文在分析我国国际收支状况、研究宏观经济与国际收支相互影响的关系中,运用国际收支差率、外汇储备率、外经比率等新定义的指标,分析国际收支平衡等问题,创立宏观经济分析关系式并得出一些重要结论。     

国际收支不平衡应该标本兼治

从我国经济金融等综合角度看。我国国际收支不平衡具有国内外经济金融环境的重要影响。其中自身经济阶段和金融条件的影响是不可忽略的。国际收支基本平衡不仅是我国短期经济金融利益的保障。而且是我国长期经济发展的调控目标和改善方向。促进国际收支平衡是我国“十一五”规划的主要目标之一。更是我国经济科学发展的重要基础。 本刊邀请五位嘉宾共同来分析我国国际收支不平衡的现状及影响。探讨国际收支不平衡的成因及解决之道。     

试论我国国际收支的现状、根源及调节

近年来,在货物贸易和外商直接投资的拉动下,我国国际收支双顺差的规模逐年扩大。国际收支的不平衡与国内经济均衡发展的矛盾日益突出。本文从全球经济发展、国内生产要素配置以及宏观政策层面来分析我国国际收支不平衡的根源。针对我国国际收支不平衡形成的根源,我们认为解决政策性和体制性问题应作为近期调整我国国际收支不平衡的着力点。     

浅议如何充分发挥国际收支统计分析预警监测功能

国际收支统计是国民经济综合平衡必不可少的一个环节首先,国际收支状况是国民经济综合平衡的一个重要部分,良好的国际收支统计信息是制定正确的对外经济政策的基础国际收支状况对一国的汇率、利率、财政、贸易、利用外资、对外投资、外汇管理等方面有着深刻的影响。国际收支统计工作关系到一个国家的对外形象,能否提供完整的国际收支信息已是我国在国际资本市场上筹资的一个前提条件。本文从打好国际收支统计分析基础、充分利用国际收支统计分析数据、防范跨境资金风险、合理利用统计分析资源,创新分析监测方法,提升外汇监管水平等方面提出了建议。     

浅议如何充分发挥国际收支统计分析预警监测功能

国际收支统计是国民经济综合平衡必不可少的一个环节首先,国际收支状况是国民经济综合平衡的一个重要部分,良好的国际收支统计信息是制定正确的对外经济政策的基础国际收支状况对一国的汇率、利率、财政、贸易、利用外资、对外投资、外汇管理等方面有着深刻的影响。国际收支统计工作关系到一个国家的对外形象,能否提供完整的国际收支信息已是我国在国际资本市场上筹资的一个前提条件。本文从打好国际收支统计分析基础、充分利用国际收支统计分析数据、防范跨境资金风险、合理利用统计分析资源,创新分析监测方法,提升外汇监管水平等方面提出了建议。     

我国宏观经济调控政策研究

本文分析了我国应对金融危机实施的宏观经济政策措施及存在问题,通过探讨我国宏观经济调控的政策目标及其政策搭配,提出了世界金融危机时期我国宏观经济调控政策首要目标不应是经济高增长而是国际收支平衡,世界金融危机时期应实施低水平的国际收支平衡和内外均衡等对策建议。     

改善国际收支平衡状况问题研究

2008年上半年我国外汇储备突破1.8万亿美元,达到18088亿美元,同比增长35.73%。高额的外汇储备和持续的双顺差格局对我国经济发展的不利影响已逐步显现,如何运用各种手段调整、改善我国国际收支平衡状况已越来越引起社会各界的关注。本文基于当前我国目前国际收支状况,分析长期持续双顺差对我国经济的主要影响,提出了改善国际收支"双顺差"、促进国际收支平衡的政策取向。     

“九五”时期我国国际收支发展趋势分析

“九五”时期我国国际收支发展趋势分析贾玉阁闫雪晶任何一个与外部世界有经济交往的国家,其宏观经济目标都包含两种平衡,即实现经济增长、币值稳定、充分就业等的经济内部平衡和国际收支平衡的经济外部平衡,这二者又相互影响,相互作用。一般来说,象中国这样的发展中...     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

我国助学贷款改革刍议--"双担保"机制设计

国家新出台的助学贷款政策,还不过是既有的框架下的局部调整,存在诸多不完善的地方。为此,对国家助学贷款应构建高校与就业单位的“双担保”机制。从长期来看,要构建一个系统有效的“政府部门管理和商业银行运作相结合”、“多层次、多渠道、多方式”、“担保和非担保、贴息和非贴息、市场和非市场运作互相补充”的中国教育金融框架。     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。