Information diffusion in electronic and floor trading

The attractiveness of floor trading versus anonymous electronic trading systems for traders is analysed. We hypothesize that in times of low information intensity, the insight into the order book of the electronic trading system provides more valuable information than floor trading, but in times of high information intensity, this is not true. Thus, the electronic system's market share in trading volume should decline when information intensity increases. This hypothesis is tested by DTB and LIFFE data on Bund-Future trading in the period 1991 to 1995. In the first years of trading, the DTB's market share is inversely related to price volatility and trading volume as proxies for information intensity. In recent years, this relation fades away; this can be explained by the high frequency of transactions which implies a steady flow of information on transactions.     

Quantifying preferential trading in the e-MID interbank market

Interbank markets allow credit institutions to exchange capital for purposes of liquidity management. These markets are among the most liquid markets in the financial system. However, liquidity of interbank markets dropped during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, and such a lack of liquidity influenced the entire economic system. In this paper, we analyse transaction data from the e-MID market which is the only electronic interbank market in the Euro Area and US, over a period of 11 years (1999–2009). We adapt a method developed to detect statistically validated links in a network, in order to reveal preferential trading in a directed network. Preferential trading between banks is detected by comparing empirically observed trading relationships with a null hypothesis that assumes random trading among banks doing a heterogeneous number of transactions. Preferential trading patterns are revealed at time windows of 3-maintenance periods. We show that preferential trading is observed throughout the whole period of analysis and that the number of preferential trading links does not show any significant trend in time, in spite of a decreasing trend in the number of pairs of banks making transactions. We observe that preferential trading connections typically involve large trading volumes. During the crisis, we also observe that transactions occurring between banks with a preferential connection occur at larger interest rates than the complement set—an effect that is not observed before the crisis.     

The Information Content of Insider Call Options Trading

We examine the information content of two forms of insider trading, insider buy-, and sell-call transactions. We find that the information carried by stand-alone call purchases has only a short-term impact on stock prices, but over a longer term, call purchases accompanied by stock purchases have a positive impact. Call purchases accompanied by stock sales signal negative information about the firm, suggesting that some insiders use complicated trading strategies to manipulate the market. Insider sell-call transactions are followed by negative returns, indicating these transactions are driven by negative information about the firm.     

Overconfidence and Investor Size

Recent research documents that institutional or large investors act as antagonists to other investors by showing opposite trading behaviour following the disclosure of new information. Using an extremely comprehensive official transactions data set from Finland, we set out to explore the interrelation between investor size and behaviour. More specifically, we test whether investor size is positively (negatively) correlated with investor reaction following positive (negative) news. We document robust evidence of that investor size affects investor behaviour under new information, as larger investors on average react more positively (negatively) to good (bad) news than smaller investors. We furthermore find that the performance of smaller, or more overconfident, investors is in general hurt by their behaviour.     

Bid-ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Intra-day Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

This paper examines intra-day variations in the bid-ask spread, volatility and volume for stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange. The data set used consists of quote and transactions data for a large sample of 835 stocks traded during the first quarter of 1991. The focus of the study is twofold; first, is to document a number of stylized facts regarding the intra-day behaviour of spread, trading volume, volatility etc. Second, the paper tests some predictions of two theoretical models of intra-day behaviour: the Admati and Pfleiderer and the Brock and Kleidon models. In addition, the paper also studies qualitatively the intra-day behaviour of several variables of interest including volume per transaction, transactions per fifteen-minute interval and spreads/trading volume for stocks of differing liquidity. The results suggest that the bid-ask spread is wide at the open, constant through the day and rises slightly at the close. Trading volume, in contrast is not highest at the open and the close. Volatility, based on the mid-point of the inside spread, shows a U-shaped pattern. Volume per transaction, in contrast, is fairly constant throughout the day. Further, the intra-day trading volume pattern differs for liquid and illiquid stocks. The results provide mixed support for current theoretical models of intra-day behaviour of spread, volume and volatility on the London Stock Exchange     

Are all odd-lots the same? Odd-lot transactions by order submission and trader type

We study odd-lot trading and determine if an odd-lot trade results from odd-lot orders or if odd-lots are a result of orders broken into multiple trades. We confirm that odd-lot transactions contribute to price discovery. Our finding that odd-lot transactions contain substantial information is not being driven by orders that are originally larger than 100 shares and subsequently divided into odd-lot transactions. We further find that odd-lot transactions resulting from odd-lot orders add more to price discovery than odd-lot transactions resulting from orders for 100 or more shares. Additionally, we find that more price contribution occurs when non-high frequency traders trade in an odd-lot transaction.     

并购重组前的知情交易行为研究

并购重组中基于内幕信息的知情交易行为既是监管重点,也是学术界关注的热点问题。本文以2006—2020年我国上市公司并购重组事件为样本,考察并购重组前的知情交易行为对并购公告收益的影响。研究发现：并购重组前的知情交易行为引发了主并公司股价的提前反应,从而降低了并购公告时的市场反应,这一现象是由内幕信息泄露引起,且内幕信息主要来源于包括员工在内的公司内部人,而非机构投资者。进一步分析表明,改善信息环境可以有效缓解并购重组的信息泄露问题,体现为知情购买交易的信息泄露效应受到分析师跟踪、审计质量和问询函制度的有效制约。本文研究深化了现有的并购重组内幕交易行为研究,为实施精准监管和防范内幕交易等政策提供了一定参考和依据。     

Directors’ share dealings and corporate insolvencies: evidence from the UK

This paper investigates the relation between insider trading and the likelihood of insolvency with a specific focus on the directors’ sale and purchase transactions preceding insolvency. We use a unique data set on directors’ dealings in 474 non-financial UK firms, of which 117 filed for insolvency, over the period 2000–2010. We show that the directors of insolvent firms increase their purchase transactions significantly as the insolvency approaches. The results also reveal a significant relation between three different measures of insider trading activity and the likelihood of insolvency, which is observed to be positive only during the last six-month trading period. The relation is negative for the earlier trading periods. While the earlier purchase transactions appear to be motivated by superior information held by insiders, the purchase trades closer to the insolvency date are possibly initiated by directors’ motives to influence the market's perception of the firm in an attempt to avert or delay insolvency.     

The Weekend Effect: Trading Patterns of Individual and Institutional Investors

In this paper, we document regularities in trading patterns of individual and institutional investors related to the day of the week. We find a relative increase in trading activity by individuals on Mondays. In addition, there is a tendency for individuals to increase the number of sell transactions relative to buy transactions, which might explain at least part of the weekend effect.     

Price,volume and spread effects associated with the expiry of lock-in agreements: Evidence from the Hong Kong IPO market

We examine the price, volume and bid–ask spread reactions to lock-in expiries in Hong Kong IPOs. We show that the lock-in expiry causes an increase in both trading volume and bid–ask spread, but no significant change in the share price. We attribute the absence of a price reaction to the fact that most of the Hong Kong IPO firms are controlled by one or two non-institutional shareholders who choose not to sell their shares after the lock-in expiry. Another plausible reason for the absence of a price reaction may be the period studied by this paper which follows the publication of a number of studies on lock-in expiry. The publication of the anomaly may have arbitraged away any gains internationally. The absence of significant abnormal returns around the lock-in expiry confirms the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis. Our results are consistent with the European evidence, but contradict the findings of most US studies. We show that the volume and spread increases are not caused by the sales by locked-in insiders around the lock-in expiry. The volume increase may be caused by the presence of undisclosed insider transactions around the lock-in expiry. This may well be the case, since the insider trading disclosure requirement does not apply to transactions that result in a change of less than one percentage point to an insider holding. Finally, we show that the wider spread is likely to be caused by market makers charging high information rent to protect themselves against potential trading with informed insiders.     

Insider Trading and Corporate Information Transparency

Our study examines the relation between insider trading and corporate information transparency. We find a negative relation between firms’ information transparency and the economic significance of insider trading, including the amount of insider purchase and sale and the profitability of insider transactions. We also find a negative relation between information transparency and stock price reaction to news of insider trading, which suggests that increases in information transparency preempt insiders’ private information. Our study provides evidence consistent with firms’ transparency-enhancing activities decreasing information asymmetry between insiders and investors by revealing insiders’ private information to investors in a timely manner.     

Trading Volume-Induced Spatial Autocorrelation in Real Estate Prices

Spatial dependence is often seen as a problem in econometrics rather than in economics. This study seeks to find an economic explanation for spatially correlated real estate prices. We posit spatial dependence as a process to discover price information from neighboring property transactions. Weaker spatial dependence is expected when price information in the immediate vicinity of a subject property is abundant. In the context of apartment buildings, in addition to the more commonly known horizontal dependence, there is also spatial dependence in the vertical dimension within the same building. Based on more than 18,000 transactions of highly homogeneous apartment units in Hong Kong, we found that the trading volume of a building depresses horizontal spatial dependence, but raises vertical spatial dependence. This not only confirmed the role of trading volume in the real estate price discovery process, but also questioned the validity of constant spatial autocorrelation assumption adopted in many studies.     

Detecting trading response using transaction-based research designs

This paper examines issues pertinent to using number of transactions in event-type studies of market trading response. It presents rejection frequencies for portfolios of 20, 50, and 100 observations corresponding to different abnormal trading measures and test approaches. Findings include: (1) A cross-sectionalt-statistic approach performs almost as well as more elaborate test approaches and is robust to nonnomality in the number of transactions distribution; (2) a logarithmic transformation induces near-normality in the number of transactions distribution; and (3) for equal induced percentage increases in trading, rejection rates for number of transactions exceed those for percentage of outstanding shares trades (i.e., volume). The advantage of transactions over volume is relatively more important for small sample studies (e.g.,n<100) and those with small average increases in trading activity.     

Anonymity,Stealth Trading,and the Information Content of Broker Identity

This paper examines whether the identity of a broker involved in transactions contains information. Using a sample of transactions from the Australian Stock Exchange—where broker identity is transparent—we provide evidence that consecutive buyer‐/seller‐initiated transactions by the same broker have a relatively high permanent price impact. This implies that broker identity conveys information to market participants, and that markets in which broker identity is disclosed are likely to be more efficient. We also find that medium‐sized trades by the same broker convey greater information than large and small trades, which is consistent with stealth trading by informed investors.     

Price momentum in the New Zealand stock market: a proper accounting for transactions costs and risk*

We test for recently reported momentum profits in New Zealand using a practitioner technique that we have not yet seen in the academic literature. This technique simultaneously weighs returns, risk and transactions costs at each portfolio rebalance, rather than blindly chasing returns and then accounting for risk and transactions costs after the fact. We reverse the findings of the earlier literature because our gross profits are more than fully consumed once transactions costs are properly accounted for. Although we focus on momentum trading in New Zealand, our practitioner technique is broadly applicable to investigations of trading anomalies.     

Pricing Inefficiencies in Private Real Estate Markets Using Total Return Swaps

Efficient markets should guarantee the existence of zero spreads for total return swaps. However, real estate markets have recorded values that are significantly different from zero in both directions. Possible explanations might suggest non-rational behaviour by inexperienced market players or unusual features of the underlying asset market. We find that institutional characteristics in the underlying market lead to market inefficiencies and, hence, to the creation of a rational trading window with upper and lower bounds within which transactions do not offer arbitrage opportunities. Given the existence of this rational trading window, we also argue that the observed spreads can substantially be explained by trading imbalances due to the limited liquidity of a newly formed market and/or to the effect of market sentiment, complementing explanations based on the lag between underlying market returns and index returns.     

交易持续期、交易信息与投资者行为——基于PCD模型的研究

使用 PCD 模型,通过引入买卖价差、交易量、交易规模、委托指令流等交易信息变量探讨交易信息对投资者行为的影响。实证研究表明,买卖价差与期望交易持续期显著正相关,不支持 Easley 和 O’Hara (1992)的观点。同时大规模的交易能够显著地延长交易持续期,而中等规模的交易能够减小交易持续期,证实了知情交易者的隐藏交易假说。指令流信息中的买卖申报数量也对交易持续期有显著的影响,上期买卖申报数量与本期交易持续期正相关。     

Strategic insider trading: Disguising order flows to escape trading competition

Short sellers actively exploit trading opportunities from insider sales. We argue that, in response to concern about potential order flow information leakage, insiders strategically disguise their order flows to escape trading competition. Our model predicts that, when short sellers are sensitive to order flow information, insiders are more likely to adopt a cautious trading strategy, i.e., splitting their trades over time. Empirically, we identify cautious trading by tracking consecutive transactions at the insider-strategy level. We find that, when anticipating intensive short selling potential, (1) insiders tend to trade cautiously; and (2) cautious insiders tend to reduce their initial trades. Overall, we highlight the strategic interaction between insiders and short sellers on the diffusion of order flow information.     

Herding and the information content of trades in the Australian dollar market

This study shows that the information content of FX transactions depends on the identity of market participants. Using spot FX transactions of a major Australian bank, we find that central banks have the greatest price impact, followed by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) such as hedge funds and mutual funds. Trades by non-financial corporations have the least impact on dealer pricing. In the interbank market, dealers with greater private information tend to choose direct trading which has lower post-trade transparency. Indirect trading via brokers is partially revealed to the market and has little price impact. The price impact largely comes from institutions in the top quartile of the trading volume. Furthermore, NBFIs have the greatest propensity for herding, followed by interbank dealers. Non-financial corporations do not herd in their trades. Except for central banks, the differential impact of market participants can largely be explained by their propensity for herding.     

The role of trading intensity estimating the implicit bid–ask spread and determining transitory effects

In this paper, we investigate the information content of trading intensity applying the Madhavan, Richardson and Roomans (1997) structural model to express trading intensity as trading momentum in duration and volume. Using both transactions and intraday data from the Helsinki Stock Exchange Limit Order Bookmarket, we find that momentum in duration and volume enhances the information effect. We reach this conclusion based on the parametric effect determined by the sign and the magnitude of the coefficients associated with the trading intensity variables, the trading effect determined by the ratio of transitory effects to permanent effects, and the economic effect determined by the size of the implicit bid–ask spread. While we find that the implicit bid–ask spread and transitory effects are decreasing toward the end of the trading day in consistency with information models in the literature, there is a surge of trades at the market close, most probably due to information uncertainty at market opening in New York.