人力资本、政府管制与中国大城市二元劳动力市场职业配置——以上海市卢湾区为例

中国大城市劳动力市场已经演变成具有"二元"特征的劳动力市场,其中本地劳动力和外来劳动力的职业构成差异不能仅仅用劳动者自身的人力资本来解释,它还与城市政府的选择性管制有关。虽然中央政府已经逐渐取消针对外来劳动力的歧视性限制,但地方政府借助户籍制度实行的隐性、间接管制在城市劳动力市场职业配置中仍然起着重要作用,是外来劳动力在职业选择中处于不利地位的重要原因。     

数据挖掘技术在企业薪酬设针中的应用研究

现代企业薪酬设计过程中要面对数量众多、关系复杂的信息和数据,而数据挖掘技术在有效处理大量数据方面具有独特的优势。本文以薪酬设计中的数据分析过程为主线,探讨如何应用分类、聚类以及关联规则等数据挖掘技术来分析和处理数据,为薪酬设计提供强有力的决策支持。     

Rural-to-urban migration, human capital, and agglomeration

A new general-equilibrium model that links together rural-to-urban migration, the externality effect of the average level of human capital, and agglomeration economies shows that in developing countries, unrestricted rural-to-urban migration reduces the average income of both rural and urban dwellers in equilibrium. Various measures aimed at curtailing rural-to-urban migration by unskilled workers can lead to a Pareto improvement for both the urban and rural dwellers. In addition, the government can raise social welfare by reducing the migration of skilled workers to the city. Moreover, without a restriction on rural-to-urban migration, a government's efforts to increase educational expenditure and thereby the number of skilled workers may not increase wage rates in the rural or urban areas.     

The intergenerational transmission of historical conflicts: An application to China’s trade

We study the legacy effect and transmission mechanisms of historical conflicts on contemporary trade. Using new data on the regional dispersion of civilian deaths due to massacres in the Sino-Japanese war (1931–1945), we find that local conflict intensity predicts international trade patterns of Chinese corporations three generations later. We further explore the transmission mechanism of collective war memory. Conflict intensity correlates with measures of anti-Japanese sentiments inferred from survey data and it appears to be transmitted both through war dramas in the mass media as well as official commemorations. We also find evidence that the trade-inhibiting effect increases with the time exposed to collective war memory.     

The art of seeing like a state: State building in Afghanistan, the DR Congo, and beyond

This paper considers the implications of James Scott’s Seeing Like a State (1998) and The Art of Not Being Governed (2009) for state-building efforts in Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In Seeing Like a State, Scott warns of the problems associated with top-down planning efforts to improve the human condition. In The Art of Not Being Governed, Scott discusses the “art” of state avoidance and self-governance. These works have important insights for contemporary state-building processes, and we explore some of the applications in the context of Afghanistan and the DRC. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for current and future state-building efforts.     

跨国公司在华专利战略及中国企业的对策

随着经济全球化的推进和市场竞争的加剧,作为保护技术创新的一种措施的专利权逐渐异化为跨国公司的市场竞争工具。这种异化既是跨国公司有意推动的结果,也是市场竞争深化的反映。跨国公司在华专利战略使中国企业面临严峻的挑战,应对这种挑战需要中国企业不懈的努力。     

Duration of disability,job mismatch and employment outcomes

Workers with disabilities have functional limitations that affect their productivity in some, but not necessarily all, jobs. Workers who find a job that is a good match for their functional limitations (i.e. a job where their limitations have little or no impact on important job functions) should expect better employment outcomes (e.g. higher wages, longer job tenure) than workers with similar disabilities who are mismatched in their jobs. Merging data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation with O*Net data on job demands, we construct two continuous measures of job mismatch for workers with physical disabilities. We then extend the literature on disability and employment by exploring relationships between duration of disability, job mismatch, wages and hours worked. The results indicate that workers with long durations of disability are employed in jobs that are a better match to their physical limitations than are similar workers with shorter durations of disability. And, workers who are mismatched earn lower wages and work fewer hours than their counterparts whose jobs are a better match. Overall, the findings suggest that disability employment policies should include systematic efforts to help workers with disabilities find good job matches.     

税收努力、征税机构与税收增长之谜

本文运用省级面板数据研究了中国税收收入高速增长的影响因素,主要考察了经济基本面和征税努力水平对于税收收入的影响。我们利用成对样本(paired sampling)的数据结构,使用工具变量处理了税收努力度量误差带来的内生性问题,估计了国税和地税机构的征税努力对于税收增长的不同影响。这种模型设定的好处是既考虑到一个地区的国税和地税面对着同样的经济基本面,同时又可以识别两个机构征税努力的增收效应所存在的差异。我们发现,GDP增长对于税收的增长有接近45%的解释力,征管努力对税收收入也有重要的贡献,地税局税收努力水平的边际效应要高于国税局的边际效应。     

产业结构生态化的有效实现途径——基于一个博弈模型

目前,我国正处于工业化中期阶段,重工业的产值比重占整个GDP的比重高达70%,中技术产业的增长率超过了高技术产业。这样的产业结构无疑会对我国的能源消耗和生态环境造成巨大的负面影响。如何破解实现工业化与我国所拥有的自然资源存量之间的矛盾;以及在资源环境越来越成为经济发展硬约束的情况下,如何解决严重的环境污染问题、降低污染治理成本,成为当前我国经济发展不可逾越的课题。文章提出了产业结构生态化的概念,并通过构建博弈模型,揭示了要建立长期稳定的生态产业链需要产业链中上下游企业、政府以及社会大众的共同努力。其中政府的作用主要在于通过制订相关激励措施,改变企业面临的生产和消费环境,引导企业主动将生态成本内部化,实现废弃物资源化和循环再利用。     

论上市公司内部审计的组织与运作

通过分析上市公司内部审计的领导关系、机构设置、审计内容和重点、审计方法、审计制度及工作规范等方面现状,探讨了现代企业制度下上市公司较佳的审计组织模式及运行机制。本文认为上市公司内部审计机构应单独设置,由董事会直接领导,独立行使审计监督权;内部审计应广泛采用事前、事中、事后审计相结合的方法,同时在制度上要具强制性、在内容和重点上要具延伸性、在具体操作上要具规范性：     

腐败、反腐败和中国县际收入差距

中国经济的快速增长和地区间收入差距紧密相联。虽然目前大部分研究文献都用经济因素来解释这一问题,但文章认为,地方政府的反腐败力度也是影响地方收入水平的重要因素。通过利用中国县级横截面数据以及采用普通最小二乘法,文章发现,反腐败力度越大的县的收入水平越高。利用最近发展起来的夏普里值分解法来量化各个解释变量对收入差距的贡献率,文章还发现,反腐败是解释中国县际收入差距的一个重要因素。     

我国企业跨国经营的本土化发展战略研究

近几年我国的跨国公司发展迅速，跨国企业如何发展逐渐成为社会关注的焦点。如果跨国公司带有许多来自母国的政治、经济和文化色彩，那么很容易受到东道国的排斥、猜疑与限制，这样会制约跨国企业的发展。因此只有实现从中国企业到“东道国企业”的转变，增强企业参与国际竞争的能力，才能使我国跨国企业在东道国的发展立于不敢之地。本文就针对本土化经营战略的一些具体措施进行了一些研究。     

INDUSTRIAL UPGRADE,EMPLOYMENT SHOCK,AND LAND CENTRALIZATION IN CHINA

After 30 years of agricultural reform started in 1978, peasant workers in China are experiencing new changes in their employment, land security, and income inequalities. This article theoretically investigates the relationships among industrial upgrading, mid‐aged peasant nonfarm employment, and land conversion systems. We prove that China's efforts to upgrade its industries generate a negative employment shock on mid‐aged peasant workers, forcing some of them to return to their home villages. The current lump‐sum land acquisition system, however, will neither help peasant workers deal with the adverse employment shock nor promote land centralization for industrial and urban uses. On the contrary, land cooperation, an emerging land centralization system, will help peasant workers mitigate the adverse employment shock and centralize rural land for nonagricultural purposes. (JEL Q15, J43)     

Globalization,labor standards,and women's rights: dilemmas of collective (in)action in an interdependent world

This paper challenges the idea that a “social clause” to enforce global labor standards through international trade agreements serves the interests of women export workers in poor countries. Drawing on fieldwork in Bangladesh and empirical studies, the author argues that exploitative as these jobs appear to Western reformers, for many women workers in the South they represent genuine opportunities. Clearly, these women would wish to better their working conditions; yet having no social safety net, and knowing that jobs in the informal economy, their only alternative, offer far worse prospects, women cannot fight for better conditions. Moreover, global efforts to enforce labor standards through trade sanctions may lead to declining employment or to the transfer of jobs to the informal economy. Lacking measures that also address the conditions of workers in this informal economy, demands for “the social clause” will reinforce, and may exacerbate, social inequalities in the labor market.     

Wage,foreign-owned firms,and productivity spillovers via labour turnover: a non-linear analysis based on Chinese firm-level data

Using firm-level panel data from Chinese manufacturing firms over the period 2004–2007, this article investigates the impact of the wage gap between local and foreign-owned firms on foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in terms of total factor productivity (TFP). We find a non-linear threshold effect that: a low-level wage gap threshold exists, below which FDI spillovers are significantly negative. This is because FDI spillovers via labour turnover are blocked due to the low wages of local firms, which jeopardizes the flow of skilled workers from foreign firms to local firms. In contrast, when the wage gap reaches a high-level threshold, local firms can get benefits from FDI spillovers. The reason is that high wages of local firms attract skilled employees to leave foreign firms, which yields a large magnitude of worker mobility from foreign firms to local firms. Our article provides evidence that labour turnover as the channel of FDI spillovers only works when the wage gap is beyond some threshold. Also, these thresholds vary across regions and firm ownerships.     

The Stories That Economists Tell: Mainstream,Hyman Minsky,and Institutional Views of Consumer Behavior

The financial crisis of 2008 provided an informal test of mainstream and institutional views of consumer behavior. The test posed by the financial crisis assumes the form of a “story.” A successful story provides a reasonably coherent explanation of events, confirming our beliefs and justifying our policies. First, the article examines the failure of mainstream economics to present a coherent story of consumer behavior. Ignoring the relevance of assumptions, as Milton Friedman advocated, leads economists to hypostasize the model, filtering information central to the crisis. Second, Minsky’s discussion of consumer behavior and its effect on cash inflows to businesses represents an institutional explanation regarding why John Maynard Keynes’s long-run vision did not occur. The third section expands on some of the themes addressed by Minsky, which are found among the contributions of institutional economists, focusing on efforts to mold institutions to increase cash inflows to corporations and protect those inflows.     

Office productivity: the impacts of staffing,intellectual specialization and technology

This paper reports on a series of 20 case studies of office productivity and office technology in major US corporations. The case studies were carried out between the mid-1980s and he early 1990s, and involved over 1700 employees in 95 distinct offices. These studies were shaped by a new conceptual model of the office which focuses on the inteleectual content, rather than the physical attributes, of office work. Our major finding is a significan lack of intellectual specialization among managers and professionals. That is, managers and professionals devote a relatively small fraction of their work time to management and professional level work, and a relatively large fraction of their time to support and non-productive tasks. In addition, we found significant staffing imbalances throughout our cases: in nearly every office, there were more manaers and professionals, and fewer support workers, than were required to perform the work cost-effectively. Out analysis suggests that a typical organization could reduce its annual office payroll costs by 15% by recalibrating its staffing mix and increasing the intellectual specialization of its office workers. Further, we find that the apparent failure of massive corporate investments in office technology to achieve commensurate in white-collar productivity is likely to be due, in large decisions. The paper offers a specific methodology for measuring and tracking office productivity, for developing a coherent office productivity strategy, and for improving office staffing and technology decisions.     

Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight

Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) would argue, a conscious attention to the organization's vision and visionary scenarios in the environment. Having promoted foresight on six continents for a wide range of governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations, we have developed lessons on the design and set-up of foresight efforts, their use and follow-through. Lessons include: Scenarios using ‘aspirational futures’ should include expectable, challenging, and visionary alternatives; beware of and understand ‘allergic reactions’ to foresight given some individuals', particularly leaders', psychological preferences; foresight is most effectively done by and for top leadership but foresight for units or regions of the organization can also be successful; to get the most value, it is important to err on the side of boldness and vision in developing scenarios; foresight efforts create a ‘safe space’ for exploring challenging situations; associations as collections of companies or professionals have unique foresight needs including elected leadership that rotates every year, and the need to communicate the results of foresight efforts to their members effectively; government and corporations have more similarities than differences in foresight, but companies have more resources and can move quickly to develop and use the foresight.     

Office productivity: the impacts of staffing, intellectual specialization and technology

This paper reports on a series of 20 case studies of office productivity and office technology in major US corporations. The case studies were carried out between the mid-1980s and he early 1990s, and involved over 1700 employees in 95 distinct offices. These studies were shaped by a new conceptual model of the office which focuses on the inteleectual content, rather than the physical attributes, of office work. Our major finding is a significan lack of intellectual specialization among managers and professionals. That is, managers and professionals devote a relatively small fraction of their work time to management and professional level work, and a relatively large fraction of their time to support and non-productive tasks. In addition, we found significant staffing imbalances throughout our cases: in nearly every office, there were more manaers and professionals, and fewer support workers, than were required to perform the work cost-effectively. Out analysis suggests that a typical organization could reduce its annual office payroll costs by 15% by recalibrating its staffing mix and increasing the intellectual specialization of its office workers. Further, we find that the apparent failure of massive corporate investments in office technology to achieve commensurate in white-collar productivity is likely to be due, in large decisions. The paper offers a specific methodology for measuring and tracking office productivity, for developing a coherent office productivity strategy, and for improving office staffing and technology decisions.     

Migration,self‐selection and income distributions

Self‐selection in rural–urban migration is examined using three datasets from rural and urban China in 2002. We construct a migrant sample including both migrants who converted their hukou status from rural to urban (permanent migrants) and those who did not (temporary migrants). We find a strong positive selection for permanent migrants, but the selection for temporary migrants is ambiguous. We reach these conclusions by comparing migrants' counterfactual wage densities, assuming they are paid as rural local workers, to actual wage densities of rural local workers. Our results imply that permanent migration has negative effects on rural human capital accumulation and income levels.