Evaluating the Behavioural Performance of Alternative Logit Models: An Application to Corporate Takeovers Research

Abstract:  Econometric models involving a discrete outcome dependent variable abound in the finance and accounting literatures. However, much of the literature to date utilises a basic or standard logit model. Capitalising on recent developments in the discrete choice literature, we examine three advanced (or non-IID) logit models, namely: nested logit, mixed logit and latent class MNL. Using an illustration from corporate takeovers research, we compare the explanatory and predictive performance of each class of advanced model relative to the standard model. We find that in all cases the more advanced logit model structures, which correct for the highly restrictive IID and IIA conditions, provide significantly greater explanatory power than standard logit. Mixed logit and latent class MNL models exhibited the highest overall predictive accuracy on a holdout sample, while the standard logit model performed the worst. Moreover, the analysis of marginal effects of all models indicates that use of advanced models can lead to more insightful and behaviourally meaningful interpretations of the role and influence of explanatory variables and parameter estimates in model estimation. The results of this paper have implications for the use of more optimal logit structures in future research and practice.     

A Note on the Determinants of the Outcomes of Bankruptcy Petitions: Evidence From Korea

This study provides evidence on the determinants of the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions using Korean firms for the period from 1977 to 1994. We hypothesize that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, longer existing period, larger size, lower operating risk, and more goodwill would have higher survival prospects from the bankruptcy petition. The results from logit estimation confirm this hypothesis. The free assets, existing period, firm size, and goodwill have positive influence on the probability of reorganization, while the liquid assets, and operating risk are negatively related to the probability of reorganization. Among these variables, the free assets percentage is the most significant at the one percent level in determining the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions. This reveals that a bankrupt firm with more free assets tends to be reorganized because it would be easy to obtain additional financing needed for the successful reorganization. The liquid assets and existing period are also significant at the five percent level. We conclude that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, and longer existing period would have higher survival prospects in Korea.     

Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Evaluation of Alternative Statistical Frameworks

Corporate bankruptcy prediction has attracted significant research attention from business academics, regulators and financial economists over the past five decades. However, much of this literature has relied on quite simplistic classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Based on a large sample of US corporate bankruptcies, we examine the predictive performance of 16 classifiers, ranging from the most restrictive classifiers (such as logit, probit and linear discriminant analysis) to more advanced techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and “new age” statistical learning models including generalised boosting, AdaBoost and random forests. Consistent with the findings of Jones et al. ( 2015 ), we show that quite simple classifiers such as logit and LDA perform reasonably well in bankruptcy prediction. However, we recommend the use of “new age” classifiers in corporate bankruptcy modelling because: (1) they predict significantly better than all other classifiers on both the cross‐sectional and longitudinal test samples; (2) the models may have considerable practical appeal because they are relatively easy to estimate and implement (for instance, they require minimal researcher intervention for data preparation, variable selection and model architecture specification); and (3) while the underlying model structures can be very complex, we demonstrate that “new age” classifiers have a reasonably good level of interpretability through such metrics as relative variable importances (RVIs).     

The Limitations of Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Some Cautions for the Researcher

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate potential problems associated with the use of bankruptcy prediction models in current research. The tests in this study demonstrate the problems that may arise when bankruptcy prediction models are inappropriately applied. This analysis evaluated the Zmijewski (1984) and Ohlson (1980) models using time periods, industries, and financial distress situations other than those used to originally develop the models. The findings indicated that both models were sensitive to time periods. That is, the accuracy of the models declined when applied to time periods different from those used to develop the models. The findings also suggest that the accuracy of each model continues to decline moving from the 1988–1991 to the 1992–1999 sample period. Additionally, Ohlson's (Zmijewski's) model was (was not) sensitive to industry classifications. The findings of this study also suggest that the Ohlson and Zmijewski models are not sensitive to financial distress situations other than those used to develop the models. Thus, the models appear to be more generally useful for predicting financial distress, not just bankruptcy.In sum, the results of this study suggest that researchers should use bankruptcy prediction models cautiously. Applying the models to time periods and industries other than those used to develop the models may result in a significant decline in the models' accuracies. Additionally, some bankruptcy prediction models may be more appropriate for evaluating various forms of financial distress as opposed to just bankruptcy. To avoid erroneous applications of bankruptcy prediction models in the future, it is necessary for researchers not only to understand the uses of prediction models, but also to understand the limitations of the models.     

Corporate Performance of Mixed Enterprises

We delineate Hong Kong listed corporations into three levels of privatization: the fully privatized blue chips, semi‐privatized red chips and the least privatized H shares. Both H shares and red chips are mixed enterprises that mimic private ownership with joint government and private stock ownership. We find that mixed enterprises are less profitable and lower valued than the fully privatized blue chips, but red chips are more efficient and perform better than blue chips when market confidence swings to their favor. Regression analysis suggests that increased stock ownership by the government and increased emolument incentives are counterproductive to profitability, especially in bad economic times of the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis.     

优化股权结构:完善上市公司治理结构的突破口

从公司治理结构产生的历史和逻辑来看 ,股权结构和公司治理结构有渊源关系。股权结构是公司治理结构的基础 ,它决定了公司治理的形式和模式。本文对 94 4家上市公司的股权结构进行全面的统计分析 ,并结合各类持股主体的行为特征 ,得出我国公司内、外部治理机制都不能有效发挥作用的结论 ,作者提出了优化我国股权结构进而完善上市公司治理结构的政策建议。     

基于代理理论的经营多元化对企业业绩的影响研究

基于中国制造业上市公司2003～2009年的财务数据,讨论多元化经营和企业内部代理对企业业绩的影响,结果表明:多元化经营对企业业绩具有负向影响,股东与管理层之间的代理成本、经理层之间的代理成本对企业的业绩具有显著的负向影响,控股股东与中小股东之间的代理问题对企业业绩不具有负向影响;多元化经营导致企业股东与管理层之间代理成本增加,同时使得控股股东与中小股东之间的代理成本减少。     

The Sensitivity of Tests of Asset Pricing Models to the IID-Normal Assumption: Contemporaneous Evidence from the US and UK Stock Markets

Standard tests of asset pricing models are based on the iid -normal assumption. We compare standard test results with those obtained from procedures that do not require iid -normality. Analysing unconditional and conditional asset pricing models, we find that the use of tests that consider departures from the iid -normal assumption affect probability values, sometimes by a considerable amount but that test outcomes are not affected. The results also suggest that issues surrounding the testing of joint hypothesis influence probability values and that the use of appropriate tests may be more important when analysing US data than when analysing UK data.     

中国平安并购深发展经济绩效研究——基于公司理财的视角

本文回顾了平深恋的历程,通过对国内外经典文献的梳理,从公司理财视角分析中国平安并购深发展取得并购效益的理论基础,从资本市场反应和公司财务指标变化检验并购经济绩效。研究发现:平安并购深发展具有正向并购效益、平安集团和深发展银行业务仍需进一步整合。平深恋也带来了深刻启示:银行业混业经营趋势明显,政府应出台激励性和约束性相容的政策,银行业的并购行为应遵循市场化原则。     

Earnings Retention as a Specification Mechanism in Logistic Bankruptcy Models: A Test of the Free Cash Flow Theory

This paper explores the applicability of as a specification mechanism to improve forecasting methods in corporate bankruptcy. The study combines lessons from Jensen's Free Cash Flow Theory with a logisitic model of bankruptcy to improve forecasting accuracy. The model uses data from the Indian textile industry to show that data classification based on investment opportunities is yet another way of improving precision. The study also re-examines the Free Cash Flow Theory and concludes that in applying it to a bankruptcy scenario, its initial findings regarding retention policy hold true; that is, low growth firms should retain less of their earnings than their high growth counterparts.     

中小企业板上市公司股权结构、公司治理与企业绩效:基于随机前沿生产函数的分析

本文通过构建深圳中小企业板上市公司股权结构影响企业绩效的复合随机前沿生产函数,利用2006—2008年面板数据对中小企业的股权结构和企业绩效的关系进行了经验研究,结果表明中小企业的股权集中度与企业绩效之间显著正相关,这与国内文献中对大公司的经验研究结果一致,表明当前上市公司的股权集中有利于公司治理改善和企业绩效的提高。但是第一大股东持股比率却与绩效负相关,这与对大公司的研究结论相反,表明在中小企业中存在较为明显的"隧道挖掘"现象,"一股独大"在中小企业中并不利于公司治理。研究结果还表明,国家、法人、外资或个人对公司治理的绩效无显著差异;流通股比重、高管持股、研发人员投入等都与企业绩效不相关;中小企业具有较强的股权融资倾向,不符合"啄食顺序"的资本结构理论。     

国企高管薪酬影响企业社会绩效的实证研究

基于利益相关者理论,将社会绩效引入高管薪酬显性契约缔约过程,构建了高管薪酬与企业社会绩效关系模型,并以137家国有上市公司为实证样本,采用因子分析、回归分析方法检验了模型的假设关系。研究发现:年薪与企业强社会绩效和企业总体社会绩效显著正相关,与企业弱社会绩效负相关;高管持股与企业社会绩效没有显著相关性。     

利益相关者关系影响公司财务绩效持续性的实证研究

基于123家沪深 A 股上市公司的样本数据,运用时间序列自回归模型;考量卓越与不良绩效企业股东、管理人员、员工、消费者、债权人和政府与财务绩效持续性的关系。结果表明,良好的利益相关者关系与卓越财务绩效的持续性正相关,与不良财务绩效的持续性负相关。不同的利益相关者对财务绩效持续性的影响存在差异,消费者和员工是保证卓越财务绩效持续性的最重要因素,也是陷入财务困境的企业实现业绩转向的关键推动力量。当企业经历财务困境时,股东的积极作用表现突出。     

基于多任务委托-代理模型的农业政策性银行公司治理问题研究

在分析农业发展银行公司治理特殊性的基础上,通过建立一个多任务委托-代理模型,研究农发行委托代理关系,结果表明:国家作为农业政策性银行的所有者时,不可避免地给其赋予了多重任务;对农业政策性银行制定利润方面的激励和考核机制,促使银行改善经营管理;国家对农业政策性银行的激励一定程度上影响其贷款质量.在此基础上,提出了完善农业发展银行公司治理政策建议.     

Tax incentives and the location of FDI: Evidence from a panel of German multinationals

Using a firm-level panel data set this paper investigates the impact of taxation on the decision of German multinationals to hold or establish a subsidiary in other European countries or abroad. Taking account of unobserved local characteristics as well as firm-specific preferences for potential locations, the results confirm significant effects of tax incentives, market size, and of labor cost on cross-border location decisions. In accordance with Devereux and Griffith (1998) we find that the marginal effective tax rate has no predictive power for location decisions. However, the results indicate a considerably weaker predictive power of the effective average tax rate as compared to the statutory tax rate. JEL Code:H25 ⋅ F23 ⋅ F21 ⋅ R38     

我国企业债券信用评级的因素分析——基于Altman的Z计分模型的实证研究

企业债券的信用评级是企业债券市场快速发展的基石.本文运用Altman的Z模型对我国发债企业的主体信用进行了评级,将其结果与现有企业债券评级结果相对照后,发现存在众多信用评级相背离现象,并对我国企业债券的信用评级提出了政策建议.     

我国国有商业银行公司治理结构问题研究

我国商业银行通过股份制改造,逐步建立了符合现代商业银行特征的公司治理结构.如何更全面客观的借鉴西方发达国家商业银行公司治理先进经验,对我国商业银行的改革发展具有重要的现实意义.本文首先介绍了西方发达国家商业银行公司治理的成功经验,在此基础上分析了我国商业银行公司治理结构中存在的问题,并根据存在的问题提出了完善金融管理体制、充分发挥董事会作用、进一步完善激励约束机制等政策建议.     

公司决议无效规范基础的实证考察与认识论革新

原《公司法》第22条规定公司决议“内容违反法律、行政法规的无效”,2023年修订的《公司法》未对该部分进行改动。但实证研究发现,司法实务中被法官援引作为决议无效基础的规范数目大、范围广,且远远超越了实证法对决议无效事由之“内容违法”的限定。决议无效规范基础扩大化成为令人瞩目并担忧的现象。司法实务中决议无效规范基础扩张的路径主要有四种,即基于法律行为规范、“权利保护”与“禁止滥用权利”规范、程序性规范和职权规范的扩张。决议无效规范基础扩大化现象既有其实务根源,也有其制度根源。我国决议瑕疵制度立法应引入“权力瑕疵”这一认识论框架,并明确“决议机关绝对越权作出决议”为决议无效之事由。     

企业绿色投资提升了企业环境绩效吗——基于效率视角的经验证据

本文从效率视角将企业的绿色投资与环境绩效联系起来,应用SBM-DEA方法和我国重污染行业上市公司污染物排放量的详细手工数据,对微观企业级的绿色投资效率进行了量化与分析。研究发现,企业绿色投资效率总体偏低,且主要是由投入冗余问题造成的,说明管理层只是粗放地对环境维度进行投资,忽视了资源的有效分配和价值创造使用。进一步发现,地方政府环境规制执行力度对企业绿色投资效率具有倒"U"型影响,并且这种影响在非国有企业与小规模企业中尤为显著。此外,地方政府环境规制执行与企业绿色投资冗余之间存在"U"型关系,而这种关系也仅在非国有企业与小规模企业中显著。本文结论表明地方政府应通过差异化执行环境规制来优化企业绿色投资效率。     

股权制衡与公司绩效关系研究——基于内外生双重视角的经验证据

以2007～2010年798家A股上市公司为样本,从股权结构外生和内生双重视角,探讨股权制衡与公司绩效的关系。结果表明,在外生性视角下,股权制衡对公司绩效有显著的促进作用,但促进作用的强弱与绩效指标的选取有关;考虑内生性的影响后,股权制衡对公司绩效的显著促进作用仍然存在,与外生性视角下的促进作用相比明显增强。研究还发现,公司绩效对股权制衡存在显著的正向反馈效应。