Evaluating the Behavioural Performance of Alternative Logit Models: An Application to Corporate Takeovers Research

Abstract:  Econometric models involving a discrete outcome dependent variable abound in the finance and accounting literatures. However, much of the literature to date utilises a basic or standard logit model. Capitalising on recent developments in the discrete choice literature, we examine three advanced (or non-IID) logit models, namely: nested logit, mixed logit and latent class MNL. Using an illustration from corporate takeovers research, we compare the explanatory and predictive performance of each class of advanced model relative to the standard model. We find that in all cases the more advanced logit model structures, which correct for the highly restrictive IID and IIA conditions, provide significantly greater explanatory power than standard logit. Mixed logit and latent class MNL models exhibited the highest overall predictive accuracy on a holdout sample, while the standard logit model performed the worst. Moreover, the analysis of marginal effects of all models indicates that use of advanced models can lead to more insightful and behaviourally meaningful interpretations of the role and influence of explanatory variables and parameter estimates in model estimation. The results of this paper have implications for the use of more optimal logit structures in future research and practice.     

A Note on the Determinants of the Outcomes of Bankruptcy Petitions: Evidence From Korea

This study provides evidence on the determinants of the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions using Korean firms for the period from 1977 to 1994. We hypothesize that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, longer existing period, larger size, lower operating risk, and more goodwill would have higher survival prospects from the bankruptcy petition. The results from logit estimation confirm this hypothesis. The free assets, existing period, firm size, and goodwill have positive influence on the probability of reorganization, while the liquid assets, and operating risk are negatively related to the probability of reorganization. Among these variables, the free assets percentage is the most significant at the one percent level in determining the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions. This reveals that a bankrupt firm with more free assets tends to be reorganized because it would be easy to obtain additional financing needed for the successful reorganization. The liquid assets and existing period are also significant at the five percent level. We conclude that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, and longer existing period would have higher survival prospects in Korea.     

The Limitations of Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Some Cautions for the Researcher

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate potential problems associated with the use of bankruptcy prediction models in current research. The tests in this study demonstrate the problems that may arise when bankruptcy prediction models are inappropriately applied. This analysis evaluated the Zmijewski (1984) and Ohlson (1980) models using time periods, industries, and financial distress situations other than those used to originally develop the models. The findings indicated that both models were sensitive to time periods. That is, the accuracy of the models declined when applied to time periods different from those used to develop the models. The findings also suggest that the accuracy of each model continues to decline moving from the 1988–1991 to the 1992–1999 sample period. Additionally, Ohlson's (Zmijewski's) model was (was not) sensitive to industry classifications. The findings of this study also suggest that the Ohlson and Zmijewski models are not sensitive to financial distress situations other than those used to develop the models. Thus, the models appear to be more generally useful for predicting financial distress, not just bankruptcy.In sum, the results of this study suggest that researchers should use bankruptcy prediction models cautiously. Applying the models to time periods and industries other than those used to develop the models may result in a significant decline in the models' accuracies. Additionally, some bankruptcy prediction models may be more appropriate for evaluating various forms of financial distress as opposed to just bankruptcy. To avoid erroneous applications of bankruptcy prediction models in the future, it is necessary for researchers not only to understand the uses of prediction models, but also to understand the limitations of the models.     

Corporate Performance of Mixed Enterprises

We delineate Hong Kong listed corporations into three levels of privatization: the fully privatized blue chips, semi‐privatized red chips and the least privatized H shares. Both H shares and red chips are mixed enterprises that mimic private ownership with joint government and private stock ownership. We find that mixed enterprises are less profitable and lower valued than the fully privatized blue chips, but red chips are more efficient and perform better than blue chips when market confidence swings to their favor. Regression analysis suggests that increased stock ownership by the government and increased emolument incentives are counterproductive to profitability, especially in bad economic times of the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis.     

优化股权结构:完善上市公司治理结构的突破口

从公司治理结构产生的历史和逻辑来看 ,股权结构和公司治理结构有渊源关系。股权结构是公司治理结构的基础 ,它决定了公司治理的形式和模式。本文对 94 4家上市公司的股权结构进行全面的统计分析 ,并结合各类持股主体的行为特征 ,得出我国公司内、外部治理机制都不能有效发挥作用的结论 ,作者提出了优化我国股权结构进而完善上市公司治理结构的政策建议。     

中国平安并购深发展经济绩效研究——基于公司理财的视角

本文回顾了平深恋的历程,通过对国内外经典文献的梳理,从公司理财视角分析中国平安并购深发展取得并购效益的理论基础,从资本市场反应和公司财务指标变化检验并购经济绩效。研究发现:平安并购深发展具有正向并购效益、平安集团和深发展银行业务仍需进一步整合。平深恋也带来了深刻启示:银行业混业经营趋势明显,政府应出台激励性和约束性相容的政策,银行业的并购行为应遵循市场化原则。     

The Sensitivity of Tests of Asset Pricing Models to the IID-Normal Assumption: Contemporaneous Evidence from the US and UK Stock Markets

Standard tests of asset pricing models are based on the iid -normal assumption. We compare standard test results with those obtained from procedures that do not require iid -normality. Analysing unconditional and conditional asset pricing models, we find that the use of tests that consider departures from the iid -normal assumption affect probability values, sometimes by a considerable amount but that test outcomes are not affected. The results also suggest that issues surrounding the testing of joint hypothesis influence probability values and that the use of appropriate tests may be more important when analysing US data than when analysing UK data.     

Earnings Retention as a Specification Mechanism in Logistic Bankruptcy Models: A Test of the Free Cash Flow Theory

This paper explores the applicability of as a specification mechanism to improve forecasting methods in corporate bankruptcy. The study combines lessons from Jensen's Free Cash Flow Theory with a logisitic model of bankruptcy to improve forecasting accuracy. The model uses data from the Indian textile industry to show that data classification based on investment opportunities is yet another way of improving precision. The study also re-examines the Free Cash Flow Theory and concludes that in applying it to a bankruptcy scenario, its initial findings regarding retention policy hold true; that is, low growth firms should retain less of their earnings than their high growth counterparts.     

中小企业板上市公司股权结构、公司治理与企业绩效:基于随机前沿生产函数的分析

本文通过构建深圳中小企业板上市公司股权结构影响企业绩效的复合随机前沿生产函数,利用2006—2008年面板数据对中小企业的股权结构和企业绩效的关系进行了经验研究,结果表明中小企业的股权集中度与企业绩效之间显著正相关,这与国内文献中对大公司的经验研究结果一致,表明当前上市公司的股权集中有利于公司治理改善和企业绩效的提高。但是第一大股东持股比率却与绩效负相关,这与对大公司的研究结论相反,表明在中小企业中存在较为明显的"隧道挖掘"现象,"一股独大"在中小企业中并不利于公司治理。研究结果还表明,国家、法人、外资或个人对公司治理的绩效无显著差异;流通股比重、高管持股、研发人员投入等都与企业绩效不相关;中小企业具有较强的股权融资倾向,不符合"啄食顺序"的资本结构理论。     

Tax incentives and the location of FDI: Evidence from a panel of German multinationals

Using a firm-level panel data set this paper investigates the impact of taxation on the decision of German multinationals to hold or establish a subsidiary in other European countries or abroad. Taking account of unobserved local characteristics as well as firm-specific preferences for potential locations, the results confirm significant effects of tax incentives, market size, and of labor cost on cross-border location decisions. In accordance with Devereux and Griffith (1998) we find that the marginal effective tax rate has no predictive power for location decisions. However, the results indicate a considerably weaker predictive power of the effective average tax rate as compared to the statutory tax rate. JEL Code:H25 ⋅ F23 ⋅ F21 ⋅ R38     

我国企业债券信用评级的因素分析——基于Altman的Z计分模型的实证研究

企业债券的信用评级是企业债券市场快速发展的基石.本文运用Altman的Z模型对我国发债企业的主体信用进行了评级,将其结果与现有企业债券评级结果相对照后,发现存在众多信用评级相背离现象,并对我国企业债券的信用评级提出了政策建议.     

我国国有商业银行公司治理结构问题研究

我国商业银行通过股份制改造,逐步建立了符合现代商业银行特征的公司治理结构.如何更全面客观的借鉴西方发达国家商业银行公司治理先进经验,对我国商业银行的改革发展具有重要的现实意义.本文首先介绍了西方发达国家商业银行公司治理的成功经验,在此基础上分析了我国商业银行公司治理结构中存在的问题,并根据存在的问题提出了完善金融管理体制、充分发挥董事会作用、进一步完善激励约束机制等政策建议.     

企业绿色投资提升了企业环境绩效吗——基于效率视角的经验证据

本文从效率视角将企业的绿色投资与环境绩效联系起来,应用SBM-DEA方法和我国重污染行业上市公司污染物排放量的详细手工数据,对微观企业级的绿色投资效率进行了量化与分析。研究发现,企业绿色投资效率总体偏低,且主要是由投入冗余问题造成的,说明管理层只是粗放地对环境维度进行投资,忽视了资源的有效分配和价值创造使用。进一步发现,地方政府环境规制执行力度对企业绿色投资效率具有倒"U"型影响,并且这种影响在非国有企业与小规模企业中尤为显著。此外,地方政府环境规制执行与企业绿色投资冗余之间存在"U"型关系,而这种关系也仅在非国有企业与小规模企业中显著。本文结论表明地方政府应通过差异化执行环境规制来优化企业绿色投资效率。     

保险公司分支机构治理存在的问题及改进建议

本文分析了研究保险公司分支机构治理的必要性;剖析了保险公司分支机构治理结构中主要问题的表现及原因;提出了通过保险公司内部建市科学规范的激励约束机制、加大业务创新力度、强化岗位监督等措施,外部发挥保险监管机关及投保人等相关外部利益相关方作用,达到提升保险公司分支机构治理水平的建议.     

公司型基金:中国基金业发展的战略选择

公司型基金现已成为世界基金组织模式的主流形式，而我国到目前为止全是单一的契约型基金。相对于契约型基金的固有缺陷而言，公司型基金有契约型基金无可比拟的制度优势。基于此，公司型基金应该成为我国未来基金业发展的主要政策取向。为此，必须在法律上明确界定公司型基金的法律性质以及处理好公司型基金与契约型基金的税负均衡问题。     

Corporate governance in banking: The role of the board of directors

We use a sample of large international commercial banks to test hypotheses on the dual role of boards of directors. We use a suitable econometric model (two step system estimator) to solve the well-known endogeneity problem in corporate governance literature, and demonstrate the empirical and theoretical superiority of system estimator over OLS and within estimators. We find an inverted U-shaped relation between bank performance and board size, and between the proportion of non-executive directors and performance. Our results show that bank board composition and size are related to directors’ ability to monitor and advise management, and that larger and not excessively independent boards might prove more efficient in monitoring and advising functions, and create more value. All of these relations hold after we control for the measure of performance, the weight of the banking industry in each country, bank ownership, and regulatory and institutional differences.     

从资本结构到交易结构——探究企业金融微观结构

资本结构及融资行为是公司金融领域的重要论题,数十年来研究成果丰硕,但对商业实践真正有指导意义的成果却凤毛麟角。本文指出了到目前为止的资本结构研究的主要方向及其不足,提出了企业金融微观结构概念。本文认为,商学院的公司资本结构研究应该区别于经济学,深入到金融工具交易结构的微观层面,才能更深刻、真实地揭示金融实践原理,更好地指导金融实践。     

Corporate governance and the informativeness of disclosures in Australia: a re‐examination

We re‐examine the association between corporate governance and disclosures reported by Beekes and Brown (2006), using an extended time series of Australian data. Since the ASX corporate governance guidelines were introduced in 2003, firms generally have increased their disclosure frequency and demonstrated an improvement in the timeliness of bad news relative to good news, indicating a levelling of disclosure practices and greater transparency. Better governed firms have become more cautious in their disclosure practices. However, they continue to be more balanced with respect to good and bad news timeliness. Changes to disclosure laws have also influenced company practices.     

Corporate social responsibility and provision of trade credit

In this article, we identify and examine three different views of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the relationship between CSR and firms’ provision of trade credit. The trust view of CSR argues that CSR and trade credit provision are related positively, because CSR, as a trust-enhancing device, complements the incomplete contract nature of trade credit. The CSR literature shows that CSR firms tend to have higher cash holdings. With this in mind, the precautionary motive view of CSR suggests that cash holdings serve as a hedge against trade credit risk, while, on the other hand, the substitution view of CSR predicts that cash hoarding discourages the provision of trade credit. Using a dataset of 20,591 firm-year observations from 1991 to 2015, we find strong evidence that supports both the trust and substitution views of CSR but not the precautionary view of CSR.     

公司治理结构中会计目标的法律经济学解释——兼论我国会计法律制度的完善

公司治理涉及各种利益相关者责权利的划分和制衡。会计是连接权利和利益的纽带,会计信息质量在公司治理结构中扮演着重要的角色。公司治理中对各种利益相关者的约束与制衡机制需要以会计信息作保障。会计目标与公司治理目标具有内在的关联性,在我国公司目前所处的经济环境下,公司目标是影响公司治理结构的重要因素.会计法律制度的完善对我国公司治理具有重要的意义。