House Prices and Inflation

The present paper examines the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity by investigating the relationship between house prices and the prices of nonhousing goods and services, rather than return series and inflation rates as in previous empirical studies on the inflation hedging ability of real estate. There are two reasons for this methodological departure from prior practice: (1) while the total return on housing cannot be accurately measured, the total return on housing is fully reflected in housing prices, and (2) given that using returns or differencing a time series leads to a loss of long-run information contained in the series, valuable long-run information can be captured by using prices. Also, unlike previous related studies, we exclude housing costs from goods and services prices to avoid potential bias in estimating how inflation affects housing prices. Monthly data series are collected for existing and for new house prices as well as the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1968–2000. Based on both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and recursive regressions, the empirical results yield estimated Fisher coefficients that are consistently greater than one over the sample period. Thus, we infer that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run.     

Inflation and Housing Prices*

Home ownership is a claim on the stream of net rents. Like any income-producing asset, the market capitalizes its value. The price-rent multiple depends upon the expected growth rate of revenues and expenses, on financing terms, and on taxes. This paper derives this price-rent multiple in terms of these variables and calculates its value from 1963 through 1978. The results indicate that housing prices grew more rapidly than rents and the CPI largely as the result of a 33% increase in the price-rent multiple over those years. This increase in the capitalization rate occurred, despite higher nominal financing terms, because the relative terms of housing finance tended to ease and because the expected growth rate of rents increased more than its discount rate.     

Homeownership Returns, Tenure Choice and Inflation

This paper empirically investigates the impact of inflation on homeownership returns and tenure choice when the assumptions underlying the user cost of housing are modified to reflect separately the effects of unanticipated and anticipated inflation. The analysis demonstrates that when the user cost model is specified to reflect the impact of anticipated inflation on house prices, the mortgage interest rate and the capitalization rate, the returns to homeownership are lower than determined by previous user cost studies and are consistent with a reasonably efficient market.     

Another Look at Tenure Choice, Inflation, and Taxes

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of inflation on the demand for housing. The first part of the paper presents a theoretical model that identifies the effects of inflation on the after-tax cost of housing and the choice between rental and owner-occupied housing. The second part discusses the results of a simulation model that measures the effect of inflation on the aggregate demand for housing, the aggregate homeownership rate, and the price of housing. The paper concludes that while inflation can be expected to increase the aggregate demand for housing and the price of housing relative to the general price level, inflation should ultimately lead to lower rates of homeownership. A corollary that is probably more relevant today is that lower inflation rates should reduce the real value of the housing stock and increase the homeownership rate. The paper also contains forecasts of the impact of the Tax Reform Act (TRA) of 1986 upon housing demand and the probability of homeownership for a variety of households.     

股价与通胀、货币政策之间关系的国外研究述评

系统回顾了股价与通胀、货币政策之间关系的研究文献。发现研究者对股价与通胀之间的费雪效应是否存在以及股价与货币政策之间的关系均存在分歧,但研究视角、研究深度和实证检验方法趋于丰富。     

A Note on the Changes in the Relative Wages of LEP Hispanic Men between 1980 and 2000

Using the Juhn‐Murphy‐Pierce (1993 ) wage decomposition technique, we analyzed changes in the earnings differential between Hispanic and non‐Hispanic white men in the United States between 1980 and 2000. The empirical findings, based on decennial census data, indicate that limited‐English‐proficient (LEP) Hispanic men gained in their relative earnings position compared to English‐fluent Hispanics during the 1990s. Our interpretation is that the relative demand for LEP Hispanic workers has risen in recent years.     

关于Chebyshev不等式的一点注记

本文给出了 Chebyshev 不等式的一种改进形式,从而得到一种更简便的估计。并就各种情况给出了严格的证明。     

A Note on Hybrid Mortgages

We extend previous research on traditional one-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) by analyzing the performance of 3/27 hybrid instruments. Under this contract innovation, which first appeared in the mid-1990s, note rates are fixed for three years after which they convert to a traditional one-year adjustment schedule with periodic and lifetime caps. We find high rates of prepayment, particularly at time of initial rate adjustment, and relatively high rates of default, as would be consistent with the payment shock that often affects adjustable-rate loans.     

A Note on Quality Disclosure and Competition

Competitive pressure is lower in markets where goods are more differentiated. I analyze how a change in the degree of horizontal product differentiation affects the incentives of duopolists to disclose quality information. If disclosure is costly, then a firm discloses high qualities but conceals low qualities in equilibrium. The higher the disclosure cost, the higher the equilibrium threshold below which firms conceal quality information. I show that the effect of product differentiation on quality disclosure depends on the cost of disclosure. For low (high) disclosure costs, a firm discloses more (respectively, less) quality information if goods become more differentiated.     

Current Wealth and Tenure Choice

This paper argues that a central implication of tenure transition models is that the timing of a household's initial switch to ownership is particularly dependent upon its current net worth. In contrast, permanent income, largely derived from human capital, is assumed to be the dominant component of the relevant household budget constraint in conventional tenure choice models. These contending propositions are tested using a Canadian micro database. Consistent with the tenure transition approach, current nonhuman wealth is found to have the primary budgetary role in tenure mode decisions of young households.     

A Further Note on Schools and Housing Values

This paper provides further evidence on the relationship between public schools and housing values. Drawing on data from the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas, the paper presents estimates of an Oates-type model of community housing values. Included in the model are measures of both student achievement and racial composition. The quality of public schooling, as measured by reading achievement, is found to be a strong, statistically significant determinant of community housing values, independent of student racial mix or socioeconomic background. Estimates of the model suggest that changes in achievement scores have substantial impacts on community housing values.     

近期国际石油价格回顾与预测

受美国遭遇恐怖袭击的影响，9月份国际原油市场波动剧烈。国际基准原油美国西得克萨斯中质油（WTI）和英国布伦特原油波幅均达到8美元／桶左右，为1990－1991年海湾战争以来最大的月波幅。该月WTI、布伦特及亚洲迪拜原油的现货价格分别平均为25.93、25．52和24．10美元／桶，较8月份每桶仍分别下降了1．51美元、18美分和45美分。     

The Effects of Charm Listing Prices on House Transaction Prices

As is the case for many different goods and services, it is common practice in many real estate markets for sellers to offer properties for sale at listing prices just below some round number price ( e.g. , $99,900 instead of $100,000). The academic marketing literature refers to this practice as "charm" pricing and suggests that this strategy is an attempt by sellers to take advantage of buyers' cognitive processes in which charm prices affect buyers' perceptions about the seller or the item being offered for sale. Although numerous papers in the housing economics literature have addressed the impact of the magnitude of listing price on observed house transaction prices, no prior published study has considered the impact of the design of listing prices in housing markets. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the effects of charm pricing on house transaction prices using sample data. The results provide some evidence that houses listed at certain charm prices sell for significantly greater transaction prices than those listed at round number prices.     

近期国际石油价格回顾与预测

回顾 1.原油价格 5月份国际原油价格呈稳步上扬走势,并基本在高价位上宽幅波动。虽然美国汽油一直坚挺的态势有助于原油价格进一步上涨,但是国际能源机构下调石油需求预测、经合组织国家囤积库存、欧佩克产量超配额等因素在一定程度上抑制了油价上升的势头。美国西得克萨斯中质油(WTI)、英     

近期国际石油价格回顾与预测

回顾 1.原油 6月份国际原油价格总体呈下滑走势。虽然欧佩克部长级会议并没有达成增产协议,但是近期美国汽油库存连续上升,加之市场预期欧佩克即将恢复石油出口,促使6月份国际原油市场总体较为疲软,价格下滑。该月国际原油价格波