地方政府投融资平台研究综述

2008年金融危机以来,我国实施经济刺激计划使地方政府投融资平台数量和规模得到了迅猛的发展。地方政府投融资平台对地方经济发展作出了巨大的贡献,同时也累积了巨大的风险。本文对地方政府投融资平台的国内外相关文献作了梳理和评述,以期对未来相关领域的深入研究有所裨益。     

地方政府投融资平台金融风险的防范

2009年以来,在我国政府采取4万亿元财政投资和10万亿元信贷投放政策的刺激下,我国经济社会逐渐走出了金融危机的阴影．步入了经济回升及稳步发展的健康轨道。但是,经济发展中投融资过热、通货膨胀加大、金融风险苗头逐步显现等问题已日益严重．对我国经济向好的局面带来了不利影响。特别是我国地方政府投融资平台的贷款规模快速增长。政府投融资平台风险不断加大。据有关部门统计．     

地方政府融资平台研究——以景德镇为例

随着各地方政府投融资平台的快速扩张,导致各级政府承受着巨大的债务风险,削弱了地方政府投融资平台对地方政府经济的促进作用.而且,国家出台了大量地政策用于规范地方政府债务,提升各级政府的投融资体系.以景德镇为例,分析当地投融资平台的现状,借鉴发达国家和国内的先进经验,为景德镇地方政府投融资平台的完善提出相应的对策建议.     

规范政府财政责任约束 强化地方投融资平台风险控制

随着2008年下半年4万亿元经济刺激计划的实施,以地方投融资平台为载体的银行信贷融资成为我国基础设施建设融资的主导力量,为我国应对国际金融危机和扩大内需发挥了重要作用。但是政府投融资平台总体负债率较高、盈利能力和透明度较低,平台贷款潜藏着系统性金融风险和财政风险。     

地方政府投融资平台运行中 问题与对策

地方政府投融资平台在弥补地方财力不足、推动地方经济社会发展等方面发挥了积极作用.但有些地方特别是一些经济落后地区投融资平台过多、债务负担较重.由此带来巨大的财政风险和金融风险.地方政府投融资平台究竟何去何从？本文通过分析提出,在当前经济条件下,地方政府投融资平台还将在很长一段时间内长期存在.因此加快现有平台整合,消减平...     

我国地方政府投融资平台贷款存在问题及对策

我国地方政府投融资平台通过大规模融资推动基础设施建设,为应对金融危机和扩大内需发挥了重要作用。但同时地方政府融资平台的高负债风险对我国金融机构的健康发展带来很大威胁。深入分析地方政府投融资平台现状及其面临的风险,探讨风险的影响因素,对于完善地方政府投融资平台风险管理体系有着重要的现实意义。     

地方政府投融资平台问题研究——基于朔州市的实践与思考

近年来,地方政府投融资平台已逐渐成为经济建设的重要组成部分,为地方城市建设做出了巨大贡献.但随着地方政府投融资平台数量、规模、融资数额以及涉及范围的不断增加与扩大,也暴露出了许多不足和问题,如何合理解决存在的问题,促进地方投融资平台规范发展,发挥其规模效应,推动地方经济转型显得尤为迫切.本文从朔州市投融资平台运行的现状出发,在充分分析平台建设特点、存在风险的基础上,提出了规范地方政府投融资平台建设,促进地方经济增长的建议.     

地方政府投融资平台存在的风险及对策分析

在各地方政府扩大投资应对金融危机的过程中,地方政府投融资平台的风险日益凸显,成为人们关注的焦点.针对现有关于投融资平台的两种错误观点,本文从地方政府投融资平台的发展过程入手分析了投融资平台存在的风险及成因.在此分析的基础上,从政府、银行和投融资平台三个方面指出降低投融资平台风险的对策.     

地方政府融资平台:动因、风险和防范

2008年以来,为应对全球金融危机的冲击,我国政府实施了积极的财政政策,推出了4万亿元经济刺激计划,地方政府随之提出了总额高达24万亿的投资计划.地方政府有限的财力和不能"直接举债"的法律约束,使得地方政府组建了大量的地方政府融资平台.主要是在地方政府相关部门主导下成立的、以政府财政收入或相关资产提供保证的、为地方城市基础设施建设提供资本运作的政府公司.借助数量众多的融资平台,地方政府获得了规模庞大的资金,实施了大量基础设施项目,推动了各地城市化建设的进程,为保增长、扩内需、促稳定提供了有力的保证.     

我国地方政府性债务整体风险评估与监管机制研究

正我国地方政府性债务的扩张在全球金融危机后进入高潮。2008年,受到金融危机的冲击,我国经济增速急剧下滑。为了实现反危机、保增长的战略,我国政府公布了4万亿元经济刺激计划,但中央政府只承担了其中30%的份额,其他部分则只能靠地方政府和相关企业来解决。为了解决资金来源问题,地方各级政府均成立了"地方融资平台",将大量项目组合打包后用来提高信用评级,获得银行贷款。以此为标志,地方政府性债务呈现井喷式扩张。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.