尼克松冲击与广场协议：日本的教训

I. IntroductionThe Chinese exchange rate regime, a de facto dollar peg system, is coming under increas-ingly severe criticism from the international community including the U.S. and other G7countries, who argue that the renminbi is significantly undervalued and the competitiveadvantage China gains from the undervaluation is hurting their industries. They also arguethat the fixed exchange rate regime for the renminbi hampers the international adjustmentprocess and at the same time, risks a lo…     

货币贬值政策的相对有效性研究--以日本和泰国为例

本文以东南亚金融危机前后日本和泰国为例,从两者在国际货币体系的不同地位、汇率变动对 内外经济目标均衡推动的作用以及汇率过度波动时调整的手段和效果三方面分析了货币贬值的 相对有效性。     

"广场协议"对日本经济的影响及启示

20世纪80年代,日本与美国的双边贸易摩擦不断加剧,贸易战逐渐升级到汇率战。1985年,美日等国签订了著名的“广场协议”,引发日元急剧升值,并伴随着资产价格的迅速膨胀和经济结构的较快调整。90年代初,日本资产泡沫破裂,经济增长戛然而止,并出现长达十年左右的停滞,日元升...     

"广场协议"后的美元/日元汇率与美日双边贸易失衡

1985年"广场协议"的最主要目标是通过美元对全球主要货币特别是对日元的贬值来缩减美国的贸易逆差。然而,对1985-2006年美元/日元汇率、美日双边贸易差额等数据进行的分析说明,美元/日元汇率变动对美日双边贸易收支变动没有解释能力,美元对日元的贬值没有解决美日之间的贸易失衡问题。我们有理由相信,人民币对美元的升值也同样不能解决当代美中之间的贸易失衡问题。     

"压缩型经济发展"和与国际接轨所带来的问题--加入WTO后的中国经济和日本的经验

一、本次报告的目的 以70年代末"改革开放"的经济政策转变为契机,实现了经济的高速持续增长、被誉为"世界工厂"的中国,今年年初加入了WTO(世界贸易组织).加入WTO是中国实现"现代化"成果的集中体现,是谋求长期持久发展的契机.入世对中国来说,前景如何,会出现什么情况,会遇到什么挑战等值得认真探讨.     

"对赌协议"的运行机制分析——以蒙牛乳业为例

文章以摩根斯坦利对蒙牛乳业的财务投资为例,具体阐明"对赌协议"的具体的运行机制,借以更好地了解和利用对赌协议,充分发挥其在企业初创期中的重要作用,从而为改善中国企业结构,培养有竞争力的中国企业做出努力.     

外向型农业对汇率和物价的弹性反应和政策分析——以浙江省为例

一、引言 改革开放特别是20世纪90年代以来,浙江省的农业种植结构和供求结构发生了巨大的变化,传统的粮食性作物种植面积和产量大幅降低,而效益农业、出口农业的收人在农业总收入中的比重越来越大.浙江省的个别区县,如嵊州、奉化等,当年的农业出口收入占总农业收人的比重已经分别达到40%、50%以上,一批优势农业的出口收入占其总收人的比重也达到较高的比例,如茶叶、罐头和水产品等.     

如何打造中国外贸升级版--以人民币汇率机制为例

近期，人民币兑美元汇率连创新高，再次引起我国外贸企业对汇率走势的担心。在向全面小康社会迈进的新形势下，坚持市场化改革目标，科学运用汇率机制，是打造我国外贸升级版的一项重大课题。     

近代日本的对华资本输出原理--以在华日本纺织业为例

在经历了中日甲午战争、日俄战争之后,由于日本帝国主义的形成,日本开始了大规模的资本输出,并且呈现出以中国为主要对象的资本输出特征。日本是基于何种资本输出理论来进行对外投资的?为什么中国成了近代日本对外投资的主要对象?本文试从经济史的角度,通过对近代日本的资本输出特征、资本输出的典型——在华日本纺织业的形成和发展背景、日本纺织资本对中国市场的认识等问题进行探讨和分析,对近代日本的对华资本输出原理做一个历史性的考察。     

基于低碳经济发展视阈的产业节能减排自愿协议--以日本经验为例北大核心CSSCISSCI

产业节能减排是中国当前控制碳排放、发展低碳经济的一个最为现实的路径之一。从发达国家以及日本产业自愿协议实施经验经验看,自愿协议是实现产业节能减排目标的有效措施。     

Nordic Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes

The Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden share common history, culture and institutions. Four, with the exception of Finland, have languages that stem from a common root. Yet the five countries have chosen different paths when it comes to membership in international organizations. Denmark, Iceland and Norway became founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization while Finland and Sweden decided to stay neutral. Denmark, Sweden and Finland belong to the European Union while Iceland and Norway only belong to the European Single Market. Only Finland of the three European Union member countries has adopted the euro as its currency, Denmark has a fixed exchange rate against the euro and Sweden has a floating exchange rate regime. Yet, in spite of different monetary regimes, the economic performance in recent decades is quite similar, casting doubt on the importance of the exact regime chosen.     

日本物流政策的特征及其启示意义

从1997年日本制定第一部物流政策至今,其物流政策发展经历了3个阶段,在物流政策的演进中以提高国家和产业的国际竞争力为目标、以量化指标为导向等六个基本特征贯穿始终,构成日本物流政策内容的鲜明特征。另外从政策制定、实施和评价过程来看,日本物流政策的特征也很突出。剖析日本物流政策的内容和过程特征,并探讨其对中国的启示意义是本文的根本任务。     

Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment

The incentive to renege on a commitment to a fixed exchange rate is shown to be state contingent. A fixed exchange rate policy is not viable under unusual circumstances, and the incentive to violate the commitment is larger in the case of contractionary shocks than in the case of expansionary shocks. The possibility that the exchange rate regime is changed in unusual circumstances has significant effects also under normal circumstances, implying systematic devaluation expectations, excessive real wages and (ex post) real rates of interest, lower output and loss of reserves, which in turn reduces the incentive to initiate a fixed exchange rate policy. Moreover, policyshifts may be contagious among countries.     

Exchange Rate Shocks and the Speed of Trade Price Adjustment

A quantity adjustment cost model is developed in the context of international trade along the lines proposed by Krugman (1987). The model implies that prices adjust dynamically to exchange rate fluctuations. The price adjustment speed is determined as a function of foreign demand responsiveness, the appropriate discount rate, and an adjustment cost parameter. Pass-through is incomplete and increases over time and with the speed of price adjustment. A preliminary empirical analysis finds that the speed of price adjustment from the time series by industry and then in a cross-sectional regression tentatively relates the obtained adjustment speeds to their theoretical determinants.     

新汇率政策的长期影响

中国人民银行于7月21日宣布，将以市场需求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度，取代自1997年起实行的实际盯住美元的汇率制度。新制度将参考一篮子货币来确定汇率水平。在一篮子货币中．主导货币包括美元、欧元、日元和韩元．但它们的权重并没有对外公布。中央银行还将人民币对美元汇率调整为一美元兑8．11元人民币．比调整前升值了2．1％。     

人民币汇率体制的历史演变及其启示

当前关于人民币汇率体制及汇率水平调整的讨论许多针对汇率与近期中国国际收支平衡的相互关系。这些讨论无疑有助于全面认识问题,帮助形成有意义的政策思路。另一方面,为使这种讨论的范围进一步扩大,联系到国内经济发展和国际经济环境变化,我们还可以从历史角度考察人民币汇率体制调整的历史经验及可能给当前思路带来的启示。本文以下着重结合20世纪70年代前后的情况说明当时人民币汇率调整的国内外背景及主要内容、意义和经验。一、人民币汇率调整的主要历史时期人民币作为中华人民共和国统一的法定货币,出现于20世纪40年代末并在50年代初…     

Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis: Policy Responses to External Shocks in Uruguay

The 2008 global economic crisis affected the Uruguayan economy through two main channels: collapse in global trade and drop in capital flows. In response to the crisis, the Uruguayan government increased public consumption and investment and expanded social benefits to unemployed workers. We apply a computable general equilibrium model linked to microsimulations to analyze the distributional impacts of these policies and assess their effectiveness. We find that an increase in public investment was the only policy effective in mitigating the negative impact of the crisis on extreme poverty. The other policies reinforced the negative impact of the crisis on the poor. All three policies are costly and have an important impact on macroeconomic variables and the structure of production and export, while they have only slight or negative results on poverty and household income. More focalized policies, such as direct cash transfers, might have better results in terms of cost‐benefit.