中国与东盟国家贸易对中国经济增长影响的实证研究——基于不同生产要素密集型产品贸易的视角

东盟已连续十几年成为中国第五大贸易伙伴,因此研究中国与东盟贸易对中国经济增长的影响具有重要的意义。本文从不同生产要素密集型产品贸易的角度,运用协整分析技术和脉冲响应函数法,采用1987～2005年的数据,分析中国与东盟国家进出口贸易对中国经济增长的影响。研究显示:1987～2005年,在中国对东盟国家的出口贸易中,产品总体呈现技术密集程度越高,对中国经济增长促进作用越大的特点。但是,1987～2005年间中国自东盟国家进口的技术密集程度高的产品对我国经济增长却没有显现出明显的促进作用。     

对外贸易、经济增长与趋同发展——基于东盟国家1990～2009年面板数据的实证研究

本文集中研究东盟国家贸易发展、经济增长与趋同问题,并对1990～2009年间东盟国家贸易发展指标对经济增长和经济趋同的作用和影响进行实证检验。我们得出结论:在促进经济增长方面,东盟国家致力于发展外向型经济、放松管制以及AFTA等制度安排是有效的;而在推动东盟国家经济发展趋同、缩小成员国收入水平差距方面,目前东盟各国的贸易发展政策和实践却没有显示出显著的积极效应。文章首先介绍了东盟国家贸易发展的基本情况;其次分析东盟各国经济增长和发展水平及存在的差距;再次就贸易发展指标与经济增长、收入差距之间的关系进行实证检验,分析其原因;最后进行总结,并就东盟贸易和经济发展以及对世界经济的影响等问题提了几点看法。     

东盟各国明后两年经济发展趋缓

东盟各国明后两年经济发展趋缓据联合国的一项报告指出。东盟将因各成员国采取经济紧缩政策及出现经常帐赤字而导致明后两年经济增长缓慢。联合国经济分析家Ｐｒａｂｏｗｏ在有关亚太经济社会调查报告中指出，印尼及其他东盟国家明后两年的经济增长将比过去５年缓慢。东盟...     

论东盟国家的经济增长：兼论东南亚国家金融危机的原因

东盟国家是亚太地区经济增长较快的地区之一，但东南亚金融危机对东南亚乃至亚洲、欧美的发展造成重大影响。东盟作为经济增长较快的地区之一，为什么在短短的时间内爆发了这场波及全球的金融危机呢？本文试图从经济增长方面作了一些探求。一、东盟国家经济增长概况东盟国家的经济增长开始于60－70年代，在80年代到90年代初得到较快增长，特别是80年代以来，东盟成为世界上最具经济活力的地区受到世界关注。1985年一1992年7年间，泰国经济的年均增长率高达8.5％，新加坡和马来西亚均为6.3％，印尼为5．8％，文莱5.1％，经济相对落后的菲律宾…     

环境规制、产业结构升级与经济增长——基于东盟国家的实证检验

利用2010—2017年东盟国家面板数据构建计量模型,考察环境规制、产业结构升级与经济增长三者之间的关系。结果表明：目前阶段,东盟国家环保关注度和环境政策措施与经济增长呈负相关关系,而环境政策级别与经济增长呈正相关关系。为了研究环境规制影响经济增长的路径,在基础模型的基础上,以产业结构优化升级为中介变量,构建中介效应模型,实证结果显示,产业结构优化升级在环境规制与经济增长的关系中起到部分中介作用。     

制约东盟国家工业发展速度和比例的因素探析

东盟国家(1984年才加入东盟的文莱国,本文将不述及)是当今世界上经济增长令人瞩目的发展中地区。关于东盟国家发展经济的成功之道,以及它们的经济发展战略特点等,国内专家已经谈得不少,写得很多,我们无意赘述。本文打算从另一个角度,即从探讨制约东盟国家工业发展速度和比例的主要因素着手,来剖析它们的工业化过程和特点。一、结构现状和变革方向东盟国家的工业结构是随着新兴工业部门在工业化进程中的地位逐渐增强而不断变革调整的。60年代至80年代中期,它们的工业结构变革主要反映在轻重工业比例变化和制造业各部门比例变化这两个方面。1、轻重工业比例变化。工业变革导致重工业发展加快,这是东盟国家,也是大多数发     

加强与东盟产业合作 推动南宁跨越发展

南宁与东盟产业合作现状中国—东盟框架协议签署10年以来,尤其是中国—东盟自由贸易区建立以来,南宁与东盟经济贸易往来日益密切,继续深化两者合作,不失时机地大力推进产业合作已成为共识。一是从经济贸易往来上看,2006年至2010年,南宁市与东盟国家进出口总值由10892万美元增长至50667万美元,年均维持48.48%的高速增长。2010年,南宁市对东盟国家出口额达1000万美元以上的就有越南、马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、新加坡六个国家。二是从产业对接和     

外国直接投资与东盟国家的工业化

随着经济持续强劲地增长,东盟国家成为继亚洲“四小”之后又一充满生机的经济群体。“东盟热”带来了投资“热潮”。虽然外国直接投资(除新加坡外)在东盟国家的国内资本积累总额中不占主体,但人们对外国直接投资促进东盟国家工业化发展这点却深信不疑。争论焦点只表现在东盟国家从外国直接投资中能获得多大利益?外资来源该不该分散化以求引进工作的协调发展?本文拟就外国直接投资与东盟国家工业化关系作一初略探讨。     

论东盟国家的资本积累与经济发展

在战后发展中国家经济发展中,东盟国家的经济成就举世瞩目。七十年代中后期以前,东盟国家的高积累和高增长的模式,被不少国际组织和学者推崇为发展中国家经济的一个成功范例。但在七十年代末以后,随着资本积累的增幅,经济增长率却普遍下降,有的甚至出现大衰退。因此,探讨东盟国家资本积累与经济发展的关系具有其现实意义。     

公共资本与经济增长——东盟五国数据的实证检验

20世纪60年代以来,东盟国家持续快速的经济增长引起了人们的重视。在对这些国家经济增长来源的研究中,前人的研究着重考察了私人投资的重要性。本文运用生产函数法对东盟五国公共投资与经济增长关系进行了实证研究①。实证分析结果显示,除了菲律宾之外,其余4个东盟国家公共资本产出弹性显著为正值,表明公共投资对其经济增长具有明显的促进作用。而菲律宾的公共资本对经济增长则没有显著的影响,公共投资效率低下是造成菲律宾公共资本非生产性的主要原因。     

从福建与东盟经贸合作看城市化水平问题——以福建省为例的实证分析

由于福建省特殊的地缘优势,使东盟国家成为闽籍华人的主要聚居地,福建在拓展东盟经贸合作方面处于有利的位置,也因此成为中国和东南亚国家发展友好关系的桥梁。福建省应该以建设海峡西岸经济区为依托,运用与东盟经济具有较强互补性的特点,开拓东盟市场,发展外向型经济,从而促进经济增长。然而,福建在中国—东盟自由贸易区建设中有着巨大机遇的同时也面临着挑战,城市化水平问题显得格外突出和严峻。     

Has China Crowded out Foreign Direct Investment from Its Developing East Asian Neighbors？

This paper applies a gravity model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in East Asia. Economic fundamentals, such as market size, per capita income and country risk indicators, economic and cultural ties, exchange rate volatilities and information asymmetry are found to be important determinants for FDI. Globally, the inward FDI among high-income OECD economies declined significantly on average over the period of 1990-2003, whereas the inward FDI of the high-income OECD economies in emerging market economies gained substantially. In the East Asian region, the ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) received above-average inward FDI from the high-income OECD economies after controlling for their economic fundamentals. By contrast, China's FDI from the high-income OECD economies is below average relative to its economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is difficult to establish that China has crowded out FDI from its developing ASEAN neighbors.     

FDI Flows between China and ASEAN： Emerging Factors and Prospect

I. Introduction Foreign direct investment (FDI) from ASEAN into China is now approximately fifty times as much as it was in 1990 (Table 1). China’s national statistics show that ASEAN FDI in China is comparable to that from the top five FDI outflow countries: the USA, Japan, the UK, France and Germany. The cumulative amount of China’s actually utilized FDI from ASEAN during 1994–2004 reached US$33.73 bn, which exceeded the cumulative amount of China’s actually utilized FD…     

Prospects for ASEAN-China Free Trade Area： A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area （.4 CFTA）, which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors： ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA ＇s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.     

东亚区域合作新态势及中国的战略调整

1997年东南亚金融危机使东亚各国认识到域内合作的重要性,东亚区域合作蓬勃发展。十年之后的美国次贷危机演变成全球金融危机,客观上推动东亚区域合作呈现出了一些新态势。与此同时,鉴于中国及东亚各国当前面临的发展问题,东亚区域合作应在遵循东盟主导的基础上开拓互联互通务实合作,增强区域凝聚力和内生发展动力,提升合作的机制化水平,实现区域内经济的可持续发展。     

Human Resource Development in the Asia–Pacific

The literature on education, training and other aspects of human resource development in the Asia–Pacific region is still under-developed. Many country studies are emerging, together with regional programs initiated under ASEAN, APEC and PECC auspices. Many East Asian countries have proved that a human resource development-led strategy promotes economic growth and development. Upgrading of education and skills relevant to R&D and international competitiveness in technology-intensive manufacturing and services are evident in some newly-industrialising economies in the region. But more efforts are needed.     

Explaining Trade Flows of Singapore

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, the development of the trade patterns of Singapore and particularly between Singapore and its South-East Asian partners will be outlined and interpreted against a backdrop of relevant trade policy measures, for example in the context of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Second, a simple model of the gravity type is applied in order to establish and quantify the role of various trade determinants. Despite the fact that Singapore has strived at being a 'global city', it remains rather heavily biased towards East Asia as far as foreign trade is concerned. The role of ASEAN in particular is strong, even if the role of entrepôt trade tends to exaggerate the degree of integration between the economies of Singapore and ASEAN. It also seems clear that the latter, as an organization, has not contributed much to the development of trade relations between its members. Rather the closeness and the liberalization of these economies during the last 15 years or so appear to have been decisive. It is interesting to note that the newer members of ASEAN seem to have been integrated quickly in Singapore's economic network.     

China＇s Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea： A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia's recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlights China's position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast‐growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China's FTAs with East Asian major economies: China–ASEAN, China–Japan, China–Korea and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China's output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN+3. Because forming a region‐wide FTA, such as the ASEAN+3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China should continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a medium‐term and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a region‐wide FTA.     

Lessons from the euro zone for the East Asian economies

This paper endeavors to contribute to the solution of the following critical issues: (1) what the East Asian nations can do in cooperation among themselves and with China, Japan, and South Korea in their foreign trade arrangements to improve the stability and growth of their economies; (2) what they must do individually to get their financial and real economies better integrated; (3) what they can do in cooperation with China, Japan and South Korea—bilaterally and regionally—to modernize their monetary systems and to render them more resilient to financial crises; and (4) what new focus of the IMF is most likely to enable the East Asian nations to maintain relatively free and open economies without the impact of catastrophic financial crises. Lessons from the development of the European Union, the dynamics of the euro zone, the experience of the Bank for International Settlements, and recent research on monetary and international macroeconomic theory are drawn upon to provide answers to these questions. It is argued that an area-wide approach, with a new IMF regional role and the formation of an East Asian Monetary Authority, would contribute to a sense of “community” within East Asia, leading to an enhanced role for both East Asia and ASEAN + 3 in the new world economic order.