Carbon Sequestration and Conservation of Tropical Forests Under Uncertainty

Concern for global warming has focused attention on the role of tropical forests in the reduction of ambient CO₂ levels and mitigation of climate change. Deforestation is a major land use change in the tropics, with forest resources undergoing degradation through the influence of logging and conversion to other uses. Land use change is a product of varied local and regional resource use policies. Management of forest resources is one such major temporal factor, influencing resource stability and the carbon pool. Under a given management policy, both the long period of forest growth, and the slow turnover and decay of the carbon pool, enhance the relevance of stand level management policies as cost-effective mechanisms mitigating climate change. Apart from regional level uncertainties like the nature of land use and the estimation of carbon storage in vegetation and soil, the carbon flux of tropical forests is greatly influenced by uncertainty in regenerative capacity of forests and in harvest and management policies. A case study from India is used to develop a transition matrix model of natural forest management, and to explore the economic implications of maintaining and expanding existing carbon sinks. The study further explores the significance of investments in additional carbon sinks in plantation forests, given continued uncertainty in natural forest management.     

The Dynamic Competitiveness of U.S. Agricultural and Forest Carbon Sequestration

Society is increasingly turning attention toward greenhouse gas emission control with for example the Kyoto Protocol has entered into force. Since many of the emissions come from energy use, high cost strategies might be required until new technological developments reduce fossil fuel dependency or increase energy utilization efficiency. On the other hand biologically based strategies may be used to offset energy related emissions. Agricultural soil and forestry are among the largest carbon reservoirs on the planet; therefore, agricultural and forest activities may help to reduce the costs of greenhouse gas emission mitigation. However, sequestration exhibits permanence related characteristics that may influence this role. We examine the dynamic role of carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forest sectors can play in mitigation. A 100-year mathematical programming model, depicting U.S. agricultural and forest sectoral activities including land transfers and greenhouse gas consequences is applied to simulate potential mitigation response. The results show that at low cost and in the near term agricultural soil and forest management are dominant sectoral responses. At higher prices and in the longer term biofuels and afforestation take over. Our results reveal that the agricultural and forest sector carbon sequestration may serve as an important bridge to the future helping to hold costs down until energy emissions related technology develops.     

碳排放权交易的制度构想

温室效应是导致全球气候变暖的重要原因,二氧化碳是温室效应中最重要的温室气体。碳排放权交易是缓解温室效应的一项重要措施,也是当前科学研究热点之一。对国际碳排放市场交易机制、交易类别、成交量价格及国内碳排放交易现状进行了分析。在此基础上,提出建立气候交易所的制度构想。     

我国"非京都规则"森林碳汇市场构建研究

由于市场容量固定、操作复杂,“京都规则”森林碳汇市场不可能成为解决我国林业生态效益补偿的主要方式。借鉴“京都规则”森林碳汇市场的成功经验,积极建设我国“非京都规则”的森林碳汇市场,应是森林碳汇市场发展的重点。研究了构建“非京都规则”森林碳汇市场的必要性,以及扩大森林碳汇需求、保证森林碳汇供给和规范森林碳汇市场交易秩序的具体措施。     

碳交易市场林业碳汇供给博弈分析

运用博弈模型,探讨了地方政府碳汇供给政策与林业经营者行为之间的博弈关系,并量化分析了双方行为变化对彼此收益的影响和最终均衡收益。研究结果表明:企业购买林业碳汇积极性、地方政府林业碳汇供给扶持政策都对林业经营者碳汇供给行为产生重要影响。因此,提出全面制定林业碳汇供给扶持政策和积极构建林业碳汇需求激励机制的对策建议:制定全面的林业碳汇供给扶持制度,积极构建林业碳汇需求激励机制。     

碳汇林业融资机制研究

针对碳汇林业投入不足的问题,借鉴传统林业融资方式,提出了构建碳汇林业融资机制,包括碳交易平台融资、商业贷款融资、产业投资基金融资、资本市场融资以及BOT系列项目融资等途径和方式,同时对融资项目风险进行了分析,并从财政补贴、政策性保险、林权配套改革和林产品市场等4个方面构建碳汇林业融资保障体系,以解决碳汇林业融资过程中的问题,以及为保障融资机制的有效运行做好准备。     

The Time Path and Implementation of Carbon Sequestration

We develop a dynamic model to investigate the optimal time paths of carbon emissions, sequestration, and the carbon stock. We show that carbon sinks should be utilized as early as possible, and carbon flow into sinks should last until the atmospheric carbon concentration is stabilized. We rule out any cyclical patterns of carbon sequestration and release. We propose and assess three mechanisms to efficiently introduce sequestration into a carbon permit trading market: a pay-as-you-go system, a variable-length-contract system and a carbon annuity account system. Although the three mechanisms may not be equally feasible to implement, they are all efficient.     

气候变化与中国林业碳汇政策研究综述

旨在研究气候变化与中国林业碳汇管理政策,国内外就碳汇问题的探讨和研究主要集中在碳汇背景、碳汇概念、碳汇意义、碳汇技术、碳汇市场、碳汇政策及碳汇项目等7个方面。在对已有研究的主要内容和观点进行概述的基础上,认为林业碳汇是指通过实施造林、森林管理和保护、吸收大气中二氧化碳并将其固定在植被和土壤中,从而减少大气中二氧化碳浓度的过程和活动。     

An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration

This study develops an optimal control model of carbon sequestration and energy abatement to explore the potential role of forests in greenhouse gas mitigation. The article shows that if carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, the rental price for carbon sequestration should rise over time. From an empirical model, we find that carbon sequestration is costly, but that landowners can sequester substantial amounts of carbon in forests mainly by increasing forestland and lengthening rotations. Forest sequestration is predicted to account for about one-third of total carbon abatement. Tropical forests store over two-thirds of this added carbon.     

对我国碳汇林业发展之思考

在我国碳汇林业发展历程和发展现状的基础上分析在发展过程中遇到的集体林权制度改革等政策风险、交易与管理缺失导致的投资短缺问题、专业技术和人才缺失的技术壁垒和自然风险等一系列障碍,进而从问题根源角度提出了依国情落实相关政策和标准,规范交易机制管理机制,拓宽投资渠道,提高公民生态意识,加强碳汇林业多元化发展的建议。     

黑龙江省森林碳汇估算及潜力分析

随着《京都议定书》正式生效,森林碳汇问题已经越来越受到世界各国的重视,随着碳汇造林的广泛开展,森林碳汇的计量问题也越来越受到人们的重视.黑龙江省森林资源丰富,是我国最主要的林区,巨大的“碳汇”既具有重要的生态功能,也蕴藏着潜在的巨大经济利益.本文运用森林蓄积量扩展法与生物量换算因子(BEF)法对黑龙江省森林碳汇容量和碳...     

The Consequences of Cobenefits for the Efficient Design of Carbon Sequestration Programs

In this paper, we study the social efficiency of private carbon markets that include trading in agricultural soil carbon sequestration when there are significant cobenefits (positive environmental externalities) associated with the practices that sequester carbon. Likewise, we investigate the efficiency of government run conservation programs that are designed to promote a broad array of environmental attributes (both carbon sequestration and its cobenefits) for the supply of carbon. Finally, policy design and efficiency issues associated with the potential interplay between a private carbon market and a government conservation program are studied. Empirical analyses for an area that represents a significant potential source of carbon sequestration and its associated cobenefits illustrate the magnitude and complexity of these issues in real world policy design.     

基于碳汇的云南退耕还林工程生态补偿研究

以碳汇为生态指标,结合县域经济发展水平、县级政府支付能力、县域经济中农业贡献率、农户后续生机情况等社会经济指标,采用相对比较法确定指标权重,采用线性比例变换法规范指标值,然后对云南省实施退耕还林工程的129个县(区)进行综合评价,根据评价结果将之分为3个等级,建议不同等级的县(区)实施不同的补偿额度,同一等级内实施不同的补偿方式。     

Investment Attractiveness of Afforestation in Canada Inclusive of Carbon Sequestration Benefits

Afforestation is one of several possible mechanisms available to sequester carbon and help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations. We have developed a spatial Monte Carlo-based simulation model, Canadian Forest Service—Afforestation Feasibility Model (CFS-AFM) to help assess the financial attractiveness of afforestation as a means of carbon storage in Canada. The model tracks five carbon pools and simulates costs and benefits of plantation investments. In this paper we simulate three afforestation scenarios that could be used in Canada; plantations using hybrid poplar, hardwoods, and softwoods with average growth rates of 14 and 6–7 m³/ha/year, respectively. The attractiveness of afforestation is driven by regional cost and plantation productivity variation and carbon price expectations. The results indicate that afforestation would be an attractive investment in many areas of the country at carbon prices of $10 per metric ton of CO₂ or higher. However, with a zero carbon price, very little afforestation would be financially viable. Thus, with low carbon price expectations, other co-benefits may be required to make afforestation more attractive to Canadian investors.     

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade

Using a sample of bilateral trade flows across ten developed countries between 1974 and 1995, this article explores the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors. Based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results show that real exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant negative effect on agricultural trade over this period. Moreover, the negative impact of uncertainty on agricultural trade has been more significant compared to other sectors.     

我国森林碳汇市场构建的研究

随着气候变暖趋势的到来,对森林碳汇市场这种新兴市场的研究,在国际上已经迅速开展起来。然而,在我国,森林碳汇市场并未得到其应有的发展。在阐述了森林碳汇市场在我国建立的必要性与可行性、发展优势与市场建立的障碍以及发展的巨大潜力的基础上,从五个方面分析了森林碳汇市场的运行机制,提出了构建我国森林碳汇市场的具体措施和建议。     

中国林业碳汇项目的需求分析与设计思路

随着世界各国应对气候变化谈判的不断深入和我国环境治理力度的加强,林业碳汇项目的地位和作用日益上升。因此,如何更好地促进林业碳汇项目的发展已成为我国林业建设的一项新工作。文章介绍了林业碳汇项目的相关背景,分析了中国林业碳汇项目的类型和需求。在此基础上,对如何更加有效地设计未来的林业碳汇项目提出了几点建议。