EU Enlargement and the Portuguese Economy

The main focus of the present paper is on the emerging and likely future trade effects of enlargement. Though our particular concern is with Portugal, we set the scene by comparing the trade structures of the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (i.e. the eight CEE accession states plus Bulgaria and Romania) – including an analysis of the individual cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – with those of the EU15 as a whole, and with those of the 4 EU cohesion countries. The elimination of trade barriers between incumbents and accession states will have two trade‐related effects on EU incumbents: an increase in bilateral flows with the CEEC and a shift effect as the CEEC displace some incumbent exports to EU markets. The first effect is likely to be strongest for those incumbents for which there is a strong overlap between their export structure and the import structure of the CEEC. Portugal emerges as one of the economies with the least overlap. The displacement effect, we conclude, is likely to be particularly strong in the case of Portugal, given the high degree of similarity between Portuguese exports and those of the CEEC. Portugal appears to be ‘being squeezed from below’ in that, for the majority of its traditional export sectors, the CEEC became progressively more competitive during the second half of the 1990's. Portuguese specialisation was increasingly confined to low‐technology, low‐added‐value sectors with declining demand, as strong FDI inflows to the CEEC led to an increasing preponderance of more dynamic sectors in their export structures. Thus, Portugal is also being squeezed from above. This suggests that there may be substantial industrial disruption, in response to which labour‐market flexibility and dynamic entrepreneurial response is crucial. Intersectoral mobility is generally easier the more highly educated the workforce – an indicator on which Portugal scores poorly. The Portuguese labour market, however, displays a high degree of flexibility, consistent with its long lasting low rate of unemployment. Continued flexibility will help minimise these likely adjustment costs. Besides the trade and industry effects, other topics considered in the paper include the implications of enlargement for Portugal's ability to attract FDI, the likely consequences for Portugal of inward migration from the CEEC to the EU, and the implications of enlargement for Portugal's budgetary relations with the rest of the EU.     

EU Consumer Law Outside the European Union: The Case of Albania

The article examines the emergence of Albanian Consumer Law as an example of the application of the EU consumer acquis beyond the European Union. The argument is that Albanian Consumer Law was established and developed principally as a result of external pressures, whereby as part of the pre-accession process Albania has undertaken an obligation to harmonize its consumer law with EU law. In turn, the weakness of domestic pressures and factors, including a genuine commitment on the part of Albanian policy makers to develop consumer law so as to protect their citizens as consumers, resulted in a fairly slow evolution of consumer law in Albania and the lack of implementation of the initial enactments in practice. However, the empowering of a dedicated Consumer Protection Commission as the main institution in charge of enforcement of consumer law in Albania has led to some enforcement activity and a significant number of consumer protection cases. An analysis of the cases suggests the Commission is using, and upgrading, its powers so as to intervene in a number of different sectors in the economy, including against quite powerful market players.     

The Brexit Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges After the EU Referendum

Prior to the Brexit referendum, the UK government sent an information brochure to households across the country. Surprisingly, key findings of a study by the UK Treasury — including an expected per capita income loss of £1800 — were not included in the brochure. Calculations indicate that if this information had been included, the outcome of the referendum would have been 52.1% for Remain. Instead, the pro-Brexit campaign utilised anti-immigrant rhetoric to create a scapegoat for the under-provision of local public services, when actually this was due to massive cuts in budget transfers to local communities after the financial crisis. Looking ahead, major reforms are now necessary if the EU is not to disintegrate. Given the fresh support in the UK and US for banking deregulation, the EU must stand firm in support of prudential supervision and banking regulation to prevent a new international banking crisis.     

Free trade's intertemporal Pareto-optimality

Emmanuel's thesis of ‘unequal exchange’ — that free trade at equalized profit rates and unequal wage rates (1) involves deadweight loss to the world, and (2) explains a one-way trend toward deterioration of poor country's wellbeing and double-factoral terms of trade — is found on analysis to be incorrect. Careful time-period analysis shows that such free trade is actually intertemporally Pareto optimal, despite misleading steady-state comparisons.     

Evaluation of the Information and Communications Infrastructures of Bulgaria and Romania Following Their Accession to the EU

ABSTRACT

The European Union (EU) completed a massive expansion in 2004. On January 1, 2007 Bulgaria and Romania were admitted into the union. EU accession requires the fulfillment of a list of requirements relating to judicial, economic, information and social infrastructures. This article examines Bulgaria's and Romania's National Information Infrastructures (NII) analyzing traditional, high technology and competitive structures. Comparisons are made to the original 15 European Union member countries' (EU15) NII structures and to those ten countries which entered in 2004 (EU10). Results of the analysis indicate that Bulgaria and Romania compare favorably on traditional measures, though high technology infrastructures lag considerably in some instances, and will be costly to build well beyond available EU funding sources. The gap will provide opportunities for western high technology firms which should be favorably embraced by the two resource strapped governments.     

Semi-Supervised Response Modeling

Response modeling is concerned with identifying potential customers who are likely to purchase a promoted product, based on customers' demographic and behavioral data. Constructing a response model requires a preliminary campaign result database. Customers who responded to the campaign are labeled as respondents while those who did not are labeled as non-respondents. Those customers who were not chosen for the preliminary campaign do not have labels, and thus are called unlabeled. Then, using only those labeled customer data, a classification model is built in the supervised learning framework to predict all existing customers. However, often in response modeling, only a small part of customers are labeled, and thus available for model building, while a large number of unlabeled data may give valuable information. As a method to exploit the unlabeled data, we introduce semi-supervised learning to the interactive marketing community. A case study on the CoIL Challenge 2000 and the Direct Marketing Educational Foundation data sets shows that the transductive support vector machine, one of widely used semi-supervised models, can identify more respondents than conventional supervised models, especially when a small number of data are labeled. Semi-supervised learning is a viable alternative and merits further investigation.     

Reform of the EU Sugar Market

After years of negotiations, the European Union finally reformed its sugar market in November 2005. Unilateral trade concessions, ongoing WTO negotiations and internal pressures were pushing the EU for a change. The following short article highlights some of the key features of the reform and the implications for EU member countries, world sugar markets and countries that currently enjoy preferential access to the EU market.      

Firms' acquisition decisions and Tobin's q ratio

We develop the hypothesis that Tobin's q ratio signals favorable opportunities for a firm to make acquisitions and then undertake an empirical test of this hypothesis within the context of a more general “multicausal” model. The results of this test support our hypothesis. The empirical study is also notable in that our data consists of a representative sample of large manufacturing firms (selection to the sample is not conditional upon merger activity) and the time period covered (1971–1978) postdates the conglomerate merger boom era of the 1960s.     

The nexus between competition and efficiency: The European banking industries experience

In this paper, we investigate competition in banking systems in the EU27 as a whole for the period 2004–2010, but also for old members’ banking systems compared with new members’ banking systems and for banking systems from countries member of euro zone compares with banking systems from countries non-member of euro zone. In order to investigate this issue, we estimate a non-structural indicator of banking competition, using the H-statistic indicator that is estimated using bank-level data. Also, we apply two tests of convergence, β- and σ-convergence, for assessing competition evolution during the specified period. We want to fill the gap in the banking literature testing the validity of the Competition–Efficiency Hypothesis, analysing the impact of the banking competition measures on two alternative measures of efficiency, cost and profit efficiency, in the European banking systems in a Granger-causality manner. The results confirm us that in the EU the convergence process occur from the banking systems with higher competition level than the mean score of all countries. The evidence for all groups of countries, except non-euro zone group, where results are not statistically significant, confirm the Competition–Efficiency Hypothesis in terms of cost and profit efficiency.     

Epidemiology of yoga-related injuries in Canada from 1991 to 2010: a case series study

The aim is to describe the epidemiology of yoga injuries presenting to select Canadian emergency departments (EDs). Those who presented with a yoga injury to a Canadian ED participating in the Canadian Hospitals Injury Reporting and Prevention Program and had completed a data collection form between 1991 and 2010 were included. Demographic and injury characteristics were tabulated and injury profiles of children were compared to adults. Sixty-six individuals (48 female, 18 male) who sustained 67 injuries were included. The median age was 19 (intraquartile range: 13, 32) and 73% of individuals were injured after 2005 (p = 0.0003). Sprain was the most common injury (23/67, 34%) and the most common body region injured was the lower extremity (27/67, 42%). Significantly more children were injured while being instructed than adults (p = 0.003) but more adults required treatment (p = 0.023). Although yoga-related injuries presenting to an ED are not common, the number of injuries are increasing.     

Bulgaria's Inward FDI and EU Accession

Bulgaria's extraordinary openness performance in terms of international trade and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) volumes has not been affected by both the country's failure to reach the levels of structural transformation and technological upgrading achieved by Central and Eastern Europe member states and by the failure to comply with European Union (EU) law within certain time frames. Although a substantial literature has evolved on the country's inward FDI due to this performance, empirical microeconomic studies explore the time frame up to EU accession. This study focuses on the effect of EU accession in order to revisit Bulgaria's primary inward FDI determinants via a meso-economic panel analysis of disaggregated data by industry. The findings indicate the neglected importance of extra-EU exports as a driver of Bulgaria's inward FDI and the appropriateness of micro-/meso-approaches to the subject.     

Labour demand in the EU and returns to scale: A production function approach

The paper tests the hypothesis that small member states of the European Union (EU) experience economies of scale constraints. This study adopts a production function approach, utilising data from the 27 differently sized EU member countries. The results confirm the hypothesis and indicate that larger EU member countries incur lower costs per unit of output produced when compared to the smaller ones. This finding has important implications for small EU member states, including that smaller countries have to overcome their economies of scale constraint in order to attain and maintain international competitiveness. This disadvantage is particularly relevant for small states, because these states tend to be highly dependent on international trade, in which case international competitiveness is a major issue.     

The Future of Privacy: A Consumer‐Oriented Approach to Managing Personal Data Online

Beginning with Facebook's recent controversial “tweaks” to its privacy policy and its promise to support users against employers and others who attempt to compel users to divulge passwords, we critically review European Union (EU) and US digital privacy initiatives. Whereas the EU proposal relies on legislative regulation, the United States proposes industry self‐regulation partially enforceable by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). We conclude that not only do the sharply differing EU and US approaches present significant problems of global digital interoperability, but neither proposal promises to result in practical and feasible consumer protection, at least not in the near term. Moreover, the EU proposal poses serious threats to the profitability of digital commerce. As an alternative, we propose a “third approach,” empowering the individual digital consumer/user through a personal online strategy we call “wide‐open privacy,” which provides security without sacrificing the transformative economic, cultural, and personal benefits of the Internet. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Way into Bankruptcy: Market Anomie and Sacrifice Among Portuguese Consumers

Portugal ranks among the EU27 countries with higher levels of consumer indebtedness. Contrary to the trend observed in countries with similar indebtedness rates, Portugal has one of the lowest rates of consumer default. Previous studies (e.g., Frade et al. 2006) have identified three strategies that have contributed to keep levels of credit default low: reliance on savings, financial support from relatives and friends, and cuts in household expenses. These strategies have been widely used for the last decade and have been strained since the very beginning of the global financial crisis in 2007. We argue that these three strategies are near to collapse and consequently the levels of consumer default will rise steeply in the next years. The savings rate in Portugal has been declining over time, and the social networks are limited in their action due to the current crisis that affects everyone. In this article, we advance the hypothesis that sacrificing living standards is rooted on collective beliefs about the current economic crisis in Portugal and trust in political and market agents in line with the Theory of Market Anomie (Karstedt and Farrall 2006). The conclusions are based on macroeconomic statistics and on the results of a Web survey of 1244 Portuguese households, which focuses on attitudes towards the financial crisis, trust in political and economic institutions, and strategies to cope with the crisis. The results show that trust in financial companies (banks and insurance companies) and in the European Parliament promotes a sense of empowerment to contribute to the country economic restoration. This attitude induces citizens to avoid default by sacrificing living standards. But in the current austerity context, with low levels of trust in political institutions and detachment of the economy, consumers will be less prone to sacrifice. In this scenario, credit default and insolvency is expected to rise especially in those households most exposed to unemployment and to cuts in social benefits. This reality puts a huge and growing pressure on bankruptcy procedure, civil courts, and economic and social policies. Some adjustments should be made to the Portuguese Bankruptcy Code by facilitating and simplifying the bankruptcy regime in order to accommodate the increase in insolvency cases. But the improvement of the insolvency procedure will not resolve the situation of financial distress if the structural causes persist, such as unemployment and deterioration of salaries, and cuts in social benefits. A reform of the Bankruptcy Code facilitating and simplifying the bankruptcy regime should be coupled with measures that boost the economy and stimulate the labour market. Otherwise, Portuguese households will not have the resources necessary to benefit from the bankruptcy process and regain the control over their financial lives.     

Modelling EU FDI Deflection Between the New EU Member States and Chinese Provinces

The issue of regionalism and how it affects FDI allocation within and between regions has not yet been dealt with satisfactorily by the voluminous literature on FDI. The issue of FDI dispersion, or of how traditional recipients of FDI flows can be affected by rising competitive advantages in countries of the same region as well as in countries of other regions, has received little attention. This article introduces the concept of EU FDI deflection across regions and measures it for 14 chosen locations in the new EU member states and Chinese provinces against the background of the fifth EU enlargement.     

Predicting new venture survival: An analysis of “anatomy of a start-up.” cases from Inc. Magazine

This article tests the insights and predictions of venture success as offered by reporters and experts in Inc. magazine, to the predictions generated from an analysis of data from a venture screening questionnaire. The venture screening questionnaire, consisting of 85 items covering four broad categories: (1) Individual Characteristics; (2) Entrepreneurial Behaviors; (3) Strategy; and (4) Environment, was used to evaluate 27 “Anatomy of a Start-up” articles from Inc. magazine. The creation of the questionnaire was guided by the following premises:Individual Characteristics. We hypothesized that the chances of venture survival would be improved if: (1) entrepreneurs had substantial knowledge and ability at the beginning of the start-up story; (2) entrepreneurs gained knowledge and ability during the start-up process; and (3) entrepreneurs continued to demonstrate substantial knowledge and ability at the end of the start-up story.Entrepreneurial Behaviors. We hypothesized that entrepreneurs who expended more effort in any of the following activities would be in new ventures that survived compared to entrepreneurs who expended less effort: Finding and Refining the Opportunity—comprised of 9 different activities, such as, defining the purpose of the business, planning, analyzing competitors; Acquiring Resources and Help— comprised of 15 different activities, such as, finding investors, getting advice from lawyers, getting a loan, acquiring technical expertise; Operating the Business—comprised of 5 different activities, such as, dealing with distributors, managing the day to day operations of the business; Identifying and Selling to Customers—comprised of 5 different activities, such as, identifying specific customers to sell to, selling to customers, managing sales channels; Outside of the Business Issues—comprised of 4 different activities, such as, dealing with family problems, spouse, and friends.Strategy and Environment. The strategy and environment variables were characteristics requiring comparisons of the relative performance of new firms vis-à-vis other competitors and their industry characteristics, much like the questions used in PIMS research: first to entry, degree of innovation, rate of industry growth, size of market, relative price, and relative quality. There were 28 questions in this section of the instrument. We hypothesized that niche oriented strategies and high growth environments might be strategy and environmental characteristics common to startups that survived.In total, there were 85 questions that comprised the venture screening questionnaire.New Venture Survival. The measure of new venture survival for this study was a determination of whether the new venture described in each Inc. magazine article (Longsworth 1991) was still in operation as of January 1995. This date is nearly 4 years after the last case study that we analyzed was published (September 1990), and nearly 7 years after the first case study was published (February 1988). We were able to determine that of the 27 new ventures profiled in the “Anatomy of a Startup” series published in Longsworth (1991), 17 of these ventures were still in operation.A discriminant analysis was performed that resulted in seven variables that correctly classified 85% of the cases into new venture survivors or non-survivors. New ventures that survived were more likely to have: (1) entrepreneurs who gained knowledge and ability during the founding process; who devoted greater efforts to (2) dealing with suppliers; (3) analyzing potential new entrants and who (4) devoted less time to determining the identity of the business; businesses that had (5) “fundable” resource requirements (6) focused on products or services that were designed or produced to order; and (7) were in high growth industries. The classification accuracy of the model was much better than industry experts (55% correct), competitors (55% correct), venture capitalists and financiers (40% correct), and customers (38% correct).Even though the discriminant analysis was better able to predict venture survival or non-survival compared to the experts, there are significant limitations to the reliability and validity of this one particular model, and the data set used. The primary value of this exercise involves making obvious the variables that observers use to make judgments about predicting venture success. One of the frustrations we experienced in analyzing the expert’s predictions was our inability to glean consistent and general “rules of thumb” about new venture success from their observations. We conclude by discussing the value of academic research on new venture success predictors vis-à-vis other avenues of inquiry and expertise: popular journalism and practice.     

EU Enlargement Creating a Framework for the Eu-Russian Rapprochement

Abstract

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union has substantial influence on EU external policy and its relations with non-EU countries, including Russia. In this situation, Russia's main concern is to avoid the creation of new dividing lines after the enlargement. This paper will argue that instead of dividing Europe, the EU enlargement would create a framework for further cooperation and eventually rapprochement between the EU and Russia. Therefore, Russia would be able to benefit from this process. The paper will analyse the consequences of the EU enlargement for Russia and examine the main political concepts determining directions of this rapprochement between the European Union and Russia: New Neighbourhood, Common Spaces and Eastern dimension.     

Green intentions under the blue flag: Exploring differences in EU consumers’ willingness to pay more for environmentally‐friendly products

Recent research on consumer social responsibility highlights the need to examine psychological drivers of environmentally‐friendly consumption choices in a global context. This article investigates consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) more for environmentally‐friendly products across 28 European Union (EU) countries, using a sample of 21,514 consumers. A multigroup structural equation modeling analysis reveals significantly different patterns and relationships, in how (a) subjective knowledge about the product's environmental impact, (b) environmental product attitudes, and (c) the perceived importance of the products’ environmental impact influence consumers’ WTP more for environmentally‐friendly products across countries. The hypothesized model predicts WTP for 20 out of 28 countries and the findings show that a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach is inadequate in capturing the heterogeneity of EU consumers. Hosfstede's cultural dimensions of uncertainty tolerance and individualism explain differences in WTP for environmentally‐friendly products across EU countries. Business, marketing communications, and policy making implications are discussed.     

Visegrad economies’ active implication in a “new” EU: A new regional economic approach

The EU faces maybe to the greatest challenges in its history. The paper deals with the idea of analysing the sub‐regional organisation Visegrad Group Visegrad 4 (V4) and its role in the new EU‐27 before and after Brexit. For realisation of this scope, six representative economic indicators are taken into consideration. The data analysis procedure covers latest 10 years meaning 2010–19. In order to support the analysis in the paper, first objective has the building a hypothetic optimal database which has to cover the above six indicators related to EU‐28 and V4. Second objective is relate to the performances quantification of each EU and V4’s economy based on a separately analyse. Final and the major objective is that V4 is able to face to the new global and regional challenges. The analysis in the paper is based on two new models. First of them is a regional development radiography model based on a hexagon diagram. The second is a regional evolution model based on a matrix approach. Both proposed models have distinct hypotheses, which are finally valid by the analysis. The paper puts into discussion five objectives and succeeds in achieving them. The main conclusion of the paper is that V4 is and will continue to be a growth pole for the EU economy. It would be supported by the EU in order to implement policies able to manage better employment.