Digital Economy Development,Institutional Quality and Upstreamness of Global Value Chains

By building a composite index for measuring national digital economy development and sectoral digital intensities, this paper derives metrics of industry-level digital economy penetration under the framework of specialization within global value chains (GVCs), systematically analyzes the mechanisms through which digital economy development affects GVCs upstreamness, and examines the moderating effect of institutional quality. The study shows that different dimensions of digital economy development significantly boost GVCs upstreamness, a conclusion that holds even after accounting for endogeneity through dynamic panel models with instrumental variables based on past data. Further research shows that technological innovation capabilities and resource allocation efficiency have gradually become important channels for digital economy development to boost GVCs upstreamness. Adding indicators on institutional quality reveals that greater institutional quality not only directly promotes GVCs upstreamness but also reinforces the impact of digital economy development on higher GVCs positioning.     

场景驱动的创新：内涵特征、理论逻辑与实践进路

新发展阶段，科技创新要超越传统的技术驱动，把握场景驱动的新范式、新机遇，发挥我国超大规模市场和丰富应用场景的优势，实现从创新追赶到创新引领的跨越。结合数字经济时代世界科技强国建设理论与实践，在回顾现有创新范式的基础上，系统探讨场景驱动的创新的内涵特征、理论逻辑、实践进路与典型案例，并展望未来研究和实践前沿。场景驱动的创新既是将现有技术应用于特定场景，进而创造更大价值的过程，也是基于未来趋势与愿景需求，驱动战略、技术、组织、市场需求等创新要素及情境要素整合共融，突破现有技术瓶颈，开发新技术、新产品、新渠道、新商业模式，乃至开辟新市场和新领域的过程。研究成果可为数字经济时代坚持创新引领发展，加快推进技术、场景和商业模式融合创新，以场景驱动原始性创新、关键核心技术突破、重大技术应用提供重要理论和实践启示。     

围绕产业链部署创新链——论科技创新与产业创新的深度融合

当代国际竞争突出表现为全球价值链竞争。创新发展的关键是推动产业迈上全球价值链中高端。突破口就是围绕产业链部署创新链，把科技创新落到产业发展上。我国产业迈上全球价值链中高端主要有两个方向：一是建立以我国拥有的核心高端技术为主导的全球价值链，二是从全球价值链中低端环节向中高端环节攀升。这两个方向实际上指明了围绕产业链部署创新链的方向。在产业链上部署创新链，关键是在相应的产业链环节上创新处于国际前沿的核心技术。产业创新链的基本功能是有效衔接知识创新和技术创新两大体系。产学研协同创新更适合产业创新链的构建。     

数字经济如何影响制造业全球价值链地位：机制分析与空间溢出

当前,数字经济已成为稳定经济增长的新优势。构建数字经济影响制造业全球价值链地位的数理模型,利用2005—2020年中国省级面板数据,从数字产业化和产业数字化两方面构建省级数字经济发展水平综合评价指标体系,实证研究数字经济对制造业全球价值链地位的影响。结果表明,数字经济能显著提升省域制造业全球价值链地位且具有动态非线性递增效应;与东部地区和非“一带一路”沿线地区相比,数字经济对中西部地区和“一带一路”沿线地区制造业全球价值链地位的提升作用更大。就内在机制而言,提高技术创新能力和推动产业结构升级是数字经济影响制造业全球价值链地位的两条基本路径。进一步的空间杜宾模型分析表明,数字经济对制造业全球价值链地位的影响存在空间溢出效应。     

The Mechanism and Path for Digital Economy to Foster New Drivers for High-Quality Economic Development in China

As traditional drivers fade, cultivating new drivers has become the key to the high-quality development of China’s economy. In the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the digital economy plays a strategic role in promoting high-quality economic development in China, by using data as a new key production factor and innovation as the driving force, and driving impetus change, efficiency change and quality change to increase total factor productivity. The mechanism for the digital economy to cultivate new drivers for the high-quality development of China’s economy is through four dimensions, namely allocation optimization, economies of scale, industrial integration, and innovation-driven growth. In the context of the digital economy, accelerating the cultivation of new drivers calls for the following efforts: speeding up digital innovation and promoting the driving force change, efficiency change, and quality change; accelerating the process of digital industrialization and pushing advanced industrial basic capabilities; using industrial digital transformation to promote the modernization of the industrial chain; and advancing the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, and promoting the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy.     

数字经济时代下联盟管理能力对企业颠覆性技术创新的影响——知识流动的中介作用与知识重构能力的调节作用

随着5G网络、人工智能等新科技的推广，数字经济时代已经到来。然而，在数字经济时代下，工业企业要在新一轮科技革命中抢占先机，必须组建联盟关系推动颠覆性技术创新。基于创新联盟理论，构建联盟管理能力与企业颠覆性技术创新研究框架，通过对451份有效问卷数据的实证研究发现：①联盟管理能力对企业颠覆性技术创新有显著正向影响；②知识流动在联盟管理能力与企业颠覆性技术创新的关系中起部分中介作用；③知识重构能力调节联盟管理能力与知识流动和颠覆性技术创新之间的正相关关系。     

Does global value chains participation really promote skill-biased technological change? Theory and evidence from China

The positive effect of global value chains (GVCs) integration on skill-biased technological change (SBTC) in developed countries has been proved extensively, yet little is known about that effect in developing countries, almost all of which are integrated into the low end of GVCs dominated by developed countries (universally located in the middle or at the high end of GVCs). Thus, research on the case of China, the world's largest developing country, can provide a novel insight into the general effect. In this study, we first develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with GVCs low-end integration and SBTC, through which we find that the mechanism whereby GVCs low-end integration works against SBTC in developing countries lies in too much skilled labour being absorbed by low-skill industries due to low-skill-biased technology diffusion, which causes insufficient skilled labour for high-skill industries. After that, the model is estimated using China's provincial panel data over the period from 1997 to 2015, and the empirical results show the negative impact of GVCs low-end integration on SBTC. The findings indicate that the GVCs position should not be overlooked in analysing the impact of GVCs integration on SBTC and that an improvement of the GVCs position is crucial for SBTC in developing countries.     

垂直专业化与中国企业技术创新

本文利用面板数据分析方法,从行业和地区的角度实证分析了垂直专业与中国企业技术创新之间的关系。研究发现,以垂直专业化融入全球价值链在总体上促进了企业技术创新产出的提高,但对本土的创新投入有一定的挤出效应。通过对不同种类专利数据的进一步分析表明,中国企业往往只是掌握某些实用型的非核心技术实现一般意义上的产品升级,要彻底改变中国企业在全球价值链中的位置,仍需要在开放条件下实现本土自主创新能力的提升。     

基于全球价值链视角的欠发达地区产业升级研究——以韶关汽车零部件产业为例

全球价值链网络是经济全球化的重要组织方式。嵌入全球价值链是欠发达地区产业升级的必要条件而非充分条件。在分析韶关汽车零部件产业链特征和嵌入全球价值链地位的基础上,认为韶关汽车零部件产业可借助政府、品牌整车及其骨干零部件企业、科研院所和中介组织四种力量,构建零部件产业集群和区域创新体系,快速嵌入珠三角价值链,并推进价值链的国际化延伸,以全球价值链嵌入跟随式和自主创新式并举的模式实现产业升级。     

The Impact of Digital Economy Development on the Industrial Structure Upgrading: A Study Based on Grey Relational Entropy and Dissipative Structure Theory

In recent years, the global booming of the digital economy has become a booster for China’s high-quality development. In the digital economy era, the digital upgrading of the industrial structure has become obvious. Based on a grey relational entropy model and dissipative structure theory, our empirical study reveals that the impact of the digital economy on the industrial structure varies over time. Since 2013, the digital economy has become an engine for China’s continuous industrial structure upgrading. By comparing the influence of the development of digital industrialization and the industrial digitization on industrial structure upgrading, we find that the former has a foundational leading role in the upgrading of the industrial structure, but the latter has a stronger impact. Therefore, the digital economy is an important driving force being able to lead the future upgrading of the industrial structure. China should rapidly promote the construction of new digital infrastructure and implement strategic spatial layouts for the development of digital industrialization while concurrently accelerating the industrial digitization. This will enable China’s economy to achieve higher-quality, more efficient and more secure development in the post-epidemic era. It is also an effective means for accelerating the development of a modern industrial system and will promote the upgrading of the economy.     

智慧城市建设与城市碳排放：基于数字技术赋能路径的检验

智慧城市作为数字时代技术赋能型城市发展的新模式、新趋势,对我国实现低碳转型具有关键性作用。基于2006—2019年我国223个城市面板数据,实证研究智慧城市建设对城市碳排放的影响效应。研究发现：(1)智慧城市建设显著降低了城市碳排放,在引入PSM-DID、空间DID等模型进行稳健性检验后该结论依然成立;(2)智慧城市通过数字技术创新的直接路径和“数字技术创新→产业结构升级”的间接路径影响城市碳排放;(3)在人力资本、资金、物质越集聚的城市,数字技术赋能路径对城市碳减排的正向调节作用越显著。上述研究对我国实现碳达峰碳中和、城市实现数字赋能与低碳引领的双轮驱动发展具有重要现实意义。     

基础设施互联互通对出口经济体参与全球价值链的影响

本文利用亚洲开发银行（ADB)提供的贸易增加值分解数据构建出口经济体的全球价值链参与程度模型，实证检验各经济体间基础设施互联互通水平对各经济体参与全球价值链的影响。实证结果发现：基础设施互联互通水平促进了出口经济体在全球价值链中的前向垂直专业化参与率以及垂直专业化深度。贸易双方之间的技术差距、制度质量差距等因素会影响物流质量、双边联通变量对全球价值链参与程度的边际影响。技术差距、制度质量差距的增加会降低物流质量对出口经济体在全球价值链中前向垂直专业化参与率的促进作用，但会提高双边联通对出口经济体在全球价值链中前向垂直专业化参与率的促进作用。而技术差距、制度质量差距的变化对物流质量、双边联通对出口经济体在全球价值链中垂直专业化深度的促进作用没有影响。     

Inequality and Income Distribution in Global Value Chains

Global value chains (GVCs), led by transnational corporations (TNCs), have reshaped the world division of labor over the past two decades. GVCs are pervasive in low technology manufacturing, such as textile and apparel, as well as in more advanced industries like automobiles, electronics, and machines. This hierarchical division of labor generates wild competition at the lower value-added stages of production, where low wages and low profit margins prevail for workers and contract manufacturers in developing countries. At the top of the hierarchy another kind of competition prevails, centered on the ability to monitor and control intellectual property rights related to innovation, finance, and marketing. We argue that GVCs have had crucial effects on income inequality and the appropriation of rents in modern capitalism.     

How Digital Economy Affects High-Quality Economic Development: Based on International Comparison

This paper estimates the size of the digital economy in 38 countries between 2005 and 2018 and conducts an empirical study on this foundation. The results show that the digital economy has a significant role in promoting high quality economic development, primarily through industrial digitalizaion. Further research shows regional heterogeneity in the impact of the digital economy, which is greater in developed countries. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms shows that the digital economy promotes high-quality economic development in both developed and developing countries by improving technological efficiency and technological progress. However, the effect of technological progress in developing countries is clearly weaker than that in developed countries. In addition, scale efficiency in developing countries are not strengthened by the digital economy. Therefore, high-quality economic development requires the digital transformation of traditional industries and promoting their integration with digital technologies.     

中国不同行业全球价值链位置对创新效率的影响

关注中国各行业全球价值链位置对创新性效率的影响,基于新古典经济理论提出假设,采用非竞争性投入产出法计算中国19个代表性行业在全球价值链中的位置及变化趋势,测算其整体创新效率。进一步将创新效率分解为技术进步指数、规模效率指数、纯技术效率指数,通过观察分解变量值揭示行业差异。结果表明：研发阶段,处于全球价值链上游的行业,行业技术前沿水平上升,行业整体向前沿靠近的程度降低;生产阶段,处于全球价值链上游的行业,行业技术前沿水平下降,行业整体向前沿靠近的程度上升。     

数字经济发展与高技术产业创新效率提升——基于中国省级面板数据的实证检验

以数字经济拓展实体经济发展空间，是实现传统经济模式向智能化模式转变、数量型增长模式向质量型增长模式转变的重要手段。采用2013—2019年中国内地30个省域面板数据，在对数字经济发展水平和高技术产业创新效率进行测度分析的基础上，实证检验数字经济对高技术产业创新效率的影响效应。结果表明，数字经济发展能够有效提升高技术产业创新效率，但随着时间推移，影响效应趋于减弱；数字经济发展会强化企业家精神和产业结构升级对高技术产业创新效率提升的边际效应；数字经济发展对高技术产业创新效率的影响存在显著的区域和行业异质性，东西部地区数字经济发展更能有效促进高技术产业创新效率提升，数字经济发展对电子及通信设备制造业创新效率的提升作用更加显著。基于此，提出大力发展数字经济、培育企业家精神、加大研发投入力度、促进区域协调发展等建议。     

数字经济核心产业对区域创新能力的影响机制研究——数字赋能产业的中介效应

虽然数字经济发展驱动区域创新能力提升已经取得一定成效，然而数字产业化和产业数字化的作用机制、影响路径仍有待深入研究。对国内31个省市2008-2019年数据进行中介效应模型检验发现，数字经济核心产业不仅能够直接提升区域创新能力，而且能够通过加速数字赋能产业发展，间接驱动区域创新能力提升。异质性检验结果表明，东部地区数字赋能产业的中介效应最显著，西部地区较弱。因此，可以因地制宜、精准施策，充分发挥数字经济对区域创新能力的积极影响。     

产业协同集聚对经济高质量发展的影响

以创新能力为中介变量,剖析产业协同集聚对经济高质量发展的影响机理,构建门槛效应模型,收集2005—2019年中国内地30个省市区产业协同集聚、创新能力、经济高质量发展相关数据,准确测度产业协同集聚及其通过创新能力对经济高质量发展的影响效应,运用Arcgis软件对产业协同集聚水平进行可视化分析。结果表明,我国产业协同集聚呈现不均衡特征,在空间上,除西部协同集聚区（四川、重庆、贵州、陕西）外,呈现东高西低、沿海高内陆低的特征,马太效应显著;在时间上,呈现四足鼎立的演化趋势。依据自身产业协同集聚与经济高质量发展的协同性水平,各省可采取协同集聚与经济高质量维持型、协同集聚与经济高质量加强型、协同集聚度加强型、经济高质量加强型的差异化策略。产业协同集聚对创新能力和经济高质量发展都存在双门槛效应,影响效应边际递减。     

在位企业非连续性技术变革的技术代际桥研究

非连续性技术变革给在位企业带来巨大挑战，要求在位企业克服新技术研发困难和自身潜在惰性进行积极响应，在与新进入企业市场竞争中获取持续竞争优势，化解熊彼特提出的破坏性创新威胁。整合社会网络理论、知识管理理论及创新管理理论，以65家汽车综合型整车在位制造企业为样本，通过搭建发明家桥、合作研发桥、混合技术桥等3个维度的技术代际桥，探讨在位企业如何在维持两代技术阶段性平衡的前提下提高新技术创新绩效。结果发现：发明家桥与企业新技术创新绩效呈倒U型关系；合作研发桥和混合技术桥对企业新技术创新绩效具有显著促进作用；旧技术创新绩效负向调节发明家桥与新技术创新绩效的倒U型关系。研究旨在为在位企业应对非连续性技术变革，提高新技术创新绩效提供相应的对策建议。     

迎接第三次工业革命的关键 在于发展模式的革命 ——我国光伏产业和机器人产业的案例研究与反思

按照演化经济学家佩蕾丝有关经济追赶的两种机会窗口理论，“第一种机会窗口”不可能存在追赶机会。但是，由于产品内分工和全球价值链的发展，“第一种机会窗口”在战略性新兴产业中也大量地出现了，那么，这是否有追赶成功的可能呢？本文通过对我国光伏产业和机器人产业的案例研究，认为我国光伏产业和机器人产业的发展模式无法承担起迎接第三次工业革命的历史重任，其根本原因就在于我国在战略性新兴产业上仍然试图通过“第一种机会窗口”即继续沿袭劳动力成本低廉的比较优势应对新工业革命。为了抓住第三次工业革命的“第二种机会窗口”，我国战略性新兴产业的发展模式亟须重大变革。