To liberalize or not to liberalize: Political and economic determinants of financial liberalization

Using a sample of 70 emerging market and developing countries, we examine the political and economic factors which affect the government's decision to liberalize the domestic equity markets. We document that the levels of industrialization and financial development, the quality of investor protection, and the level of the government's involvement in the economy are closely associated with the stock market liberalization decision. Furthermore, we find a positive and significant relation between the amount of foreign financial aid received by the governments in emerging market countries and the probability of stock market liberalization.     

The liberalization in the EC’s telecommunications sector and its effects

The telecommunications sector is a powerfully growing market which is expected to play a key role in the EC of the future. This article offers a survey of the liberalization measures envisaged in this formerly heavily protected sector followed by an analysis of their economic effects on both EC member states and third countries.     

Financial deregulation and integration: an Australian perspective

Many countries in recent years have progressively removed economic and financial barriers and this process has provided easier access to their capital markets. Further, such liberalization measures can impact upon the risk-return relationship between assets. This paper investigates whether the Australian stock market is segmented from or integrated into the world equity market. The aim is to ascertain if the liberalization undertaken in the Australian economy, in the form of financial deregulation in the early 1980s, has resulted in its integration with the world equity market. Consistent with expectations, we find evidence that the stock market was segmented in the pre-deregulation period but integrated following financial deregulation. The hypothesis that industry factors may impact upon integration could not be supported.Keywords: Australia; Deregulation; IntegrationJEL classification: F36; G12; G15     

Modelling Competition in the Textbook Market: Some Lessons still to Learn

Many European governments still advocate a so-called ‘cultural exception’, intended to protect consumers and smaller bookshops, to keep their book markets isolated from competition. Other countries, with similar aims in mind, have chosen liberalization schemes instead. To reconcile these opposing views, this paper provides a theoretical framework to study the textbook market, depicting it as dominated by two simultaneous forces: horizontal differentiation among booksellers and a vertical relationship between publishers and bookshops. Using this model, we analyse the effects of alternative price schemes on the market structure and how potential benefits from price liberalization are influenced by the number (and size of) booksellers.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND GROWTH: Evidence from Mexican Cities

Applying the most recent methodology for explaining economic growth differences across countries (Barro, 1997), education, learning by doing, infrastructure, and knowledge spillovers due to specialization have been considered relevant in explaining productivity growth differences in Mexican urban manufacturing (de León, 1999). In this article, I evaluated whether there is a significant change in the relevance of these variables under trade liberalization. In particular, I evaluated the hypothesis that trade liberalization would promote productivity growth in the northern cities as result of the dynamic effect of trade given that these cities are close to the new central market for Mexican manufacturing and the loss of relevance in the previous accumulated growth factors (Livas and Krugman, 1992; Hanson, 1994). In contrast to that hypothesis, I observed that urban manufacturing close to the United States did not show a better performance than the rest of the cities as expected and that accumulated growth factors, such as education, learning by doing, and infrastructure are still relevant in explaining productivity growth across urban manufacturing in Mexico.     

发展中国家金融自由化的路径研究

20世纪70年代中期以来，发达国家与发展中国家都先后进行了金融自由化改革。由于经济基础以及相应的金融制度的差异，发达国家与发展中国家的金融自由化路径呈现出不同的特征。本试图通过分析比较发达国家与发展中国家金融自由化路径的差异，来探索一条适合发展中国家的金融自由化之路。     

The impacts of trade liberalization on informal labor markets: A theoretical and empirical evaluation of the Brazilian case

Following trade liberalization, several developing countries experienced a sharp increase in the share of informal manufacturing employment. In this paper, I examine the impacts of trade liberalization on the labor markets of a small open economy, in an environment in which tariffs affect firms' payroll tax compliance decisions. I demonstrate that a reduction in domestic import tariffs reduces the average formal wage and show that the direction of the effect on the share of informal employment depends on the initial labor market conditions. A cut in trading partner import tariffs decreases the share of domestic informal employment and increases the average formal wage. I confirm the model's principal findings empirically, using data from the 1989–2001 Brazilian trade liberalization episode. I find the results robust to endogeneity and self-selection concerns, which are addressed, respectively, using instrumental variable and switching regression approaches.     

泰勒规则与我国货币政策选择的思考

随着金融创新和金融自由化的不断发展,许多国家开始放弃将货币供给量作为中介目标,而改使用泰勒规则作为指导货币政策制定与实施的首选目标。由于我国市场经济的发展状况,以及经济制度等方面的特殊性,我国目前的具体情况并不适合采用泰勒规则。现阶段我国要采取的策略应该是:改善宏观经济环境,建立统一、开放、高效、有序的金融市场,提高利率管理水平,健全金融监管体系,运用金融工程管理技术,进行金融衍生产品的交易管理和风险控制,提高长、短期利率变动趋势的预测能力,根据对各种经济变量的预测分析,调整银行资产负债结构,缩小风险缺口或增加高收益资产的持有比例以回避利率风险,获得更高的收益。     

自由贸易是经济发展的必要选择吗？——基于历史视角的富国发展之路

通过分析当今几个最主要发达国家在它们各自发展阶段所采用的贸易保护方式的历史,来质疑当今发达国家鼓吹贸易自由化能有效促进发展中国家经济增长的观点,得出结论：发达国家的成功并不是建立在学术理论和经济政策上所倡导的贸易自由化,而是基于幼稚产业保护的技术性竞赛;发展是个复杂的过程,贸易自由化不应该在缺乏实证检验下被高度概括为适应所有经济体成功的条件;发达国家不应该限制发展中国家自由使用它们在发展阶段曾经使用过的贸易政策,而应该尊重它们的选择。     

Smuggling in emerging markets: Global implications

Economists and policymakers have lauded the adoption of liberal trade policies in many of the emerging markets. From the outside it may appear that governments in these countries have cemented a new set of rules governing economic behavior within their borders. Yet the authors have found that these countries are likely to see the emergence or resurgence of smuggling and contraband distribution in response to trade liberalization. In order to survive under trade liberalization, smugglers will rely on cost savings associated with the circumventing of legal import channels. In addition they may employ violence to bolster a diminished competitive advantage and may seek new illegal sources, both local and international, for the consumer products they distribute. In a market environment in which organized crime competes alongside more legitimate channels of distribution, U.S. multinationals will face new challenges relating to strategic planning, maintaining alliance relationships and corporate control of global brands and pricing.     

经济全球化对发展中国家居民影响的实证研究

最近十几年,经济全球化的发展对发展中国家产生了很大的影响。从贸易自由化效应来看,经济全球化并没有给发展中国家带来人均收入的增长及就业率的提升,反而令其环境遭受破坏;从金融一体化效应来看,经济全球化加剧了发展中国家的贫富悬殊差距,并导致其国民经济的大幅波动。     

Trade liberalization in asian newly industrialized countries

Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are often perceived as having achieved similar trade patterns; nevertheless, their trade policies and patterns differ in fundamental respects. In this study, three models are considered and different aspects of the trade liberalization policies of these three countries are highlighted. The model of South Korea underscores the significance of product market concentration in restraining real wage growth and contributing to income inequality. The model of Singapore highlights the role of foreign investment in producing manufactured goods for export and in raising real wages. The factor proportions model of a labor-abundant economy adequately describes the Taiwanese liberalization. The model's predictions of rising real wages and no monopoly profits are consistent with Taiwan's declining income inequality.     

Antitrust and Liberalization in developing countries

A number of developing countries around the world have recently liberalized once highly protected regimes through privatization programs and by reducing impediments to market trade. Many of these countries have adopted an antitrust policy as an integral component of their market reforms. Recent assessments of trade liberalization programs show disappointing results. Such outcomes contradict long-held beliefs that free trade is sufficient to generate competitive outcomes in small economies. Antitrust advocates view these underwhelming achievements as further justification for extensive antitrust enforcement. We argue instead that the failure of liberalization suggests not the correctness but the inappropriateness of the enactment of antitrust policies. The continuance of market power after liberalization is due primarily to lobbying activities by producer interest groups to establish nontariff barriers rather than to collusive practices among producers. Interest groups find cartelization and rent seeking as substitutes in raising prices above competitive levels. Accordingly, the establishment of antitrust serves to improve the relative attractiveness of seeking nontariff barriers. Antitrust policies are ineffective in challenging the emergence of nontariff barriers and thus may have the unintended consequence of promoting anticompetitive activities.     

Productivity, terms of trade and the ‘home market effect’

This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade (changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods) and the extensive margin (creation and destruction of varieties). We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation. Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. Output growth driven by demographic expansions, as well as government spending, is associated with an improvement in international relative prices and firms' entry. While trade liberalization may result in a smaller array of goods available to consumers, efficiency gains from deeper economic integration benefit consumers via lower goods prices. The international transmission mechanism and the welfare spillovers vary under different asset market structures, depending on trade costs, the elasticity of labor supply, and consumers' taste for varieties.     

Exchange Rate Effects on Domestic Prices in Bulgaria and Poland: Progress in Making Markets?

The economic liberalization which has occurred in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past 15 years generally has involved establishing domestic markets and privatizing state‐owned firms, both with the intention of integrating the CEE economies into the global economy and allowing the benefits of competition to be realized. We explore how well this has been accomplished in two countries, Poland and Bulgaria, and the domestic conditions that contribute to its accomplishment. The sensitivity of domestic markets to international shocks, as reflected in exchange rate effects on domestic prices, may be viewed as an indicator of how integrated a country’s markets are into the global economy, and a proxy for competition in those markets. In explaining variation in exchange‐rate pass‐through, we examine the impact of market structure, economic liberalization and infrastructure as factors contributing to the development of competitive markets. We find that although integration into global markets can significantly increase market competitiveness, domestic factors also play a significant role.     

To formalize or not to formalize: Entrepreneurship and pro-market institutions

In this paper, we examine the effects of pro-market institutions on both formal and informal entrepreneurship. While formal entrepreneurship has long been studied in economic literature, informal entrepreneurship has been less frequently discussed. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is not only to examine the impact of pro-market institutions, but also to foster a better understanding of, and introduce a method to measure, informal entrepreneurship. For the purpose of this paper, pro-market institutions are broken into their two main components: economic liberalization and governance levels. The arguments posit that economic liberalization positively impacts both formal and informal entrepreneurship while governance levels have a positive impact on formal entrepreneurship but a negative effect on informal entrepreneurship. Furthermore, governance levels reduce informal entrepreneurship to a greater extent than they increase formal entrepreneurship, resulting in a net reduction in entrepreneurial activity. The analyses of a panel covering 51 countries from 2002–2009 provide robust support for these arguments.     

贸易自由化下东盟国家关税政策的新进展

近年来,随着经济全球化进程的加快,东盟国家(本文主要指印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国)加快了贸易自由化的步伐,积极改革与调整关税政策,本文对东盟五国关税水平和关税结构呈现的新变化进行分析,总结出其调整的特点与趋势,这对中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立具有重要的现实意义。     

Timing of trade liberalization

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of trade liberalization on growth and long-run global income inequality using a two-country model of human capital accumulation by credit-constrained households. I show that the timing of trade liberalization is a crucial determinant of its effects on growth. Moreover, I show that the size of the long-run income gap between the two countries depends on the difference in domestic income inequality when they open up to trade. Based on these results, I analyze the effects of redistributive policy within a country. I show that redistribution in one country may increase income per capita of its trading partner if it is undertaken in a steady state, while the opposite is true if the policy is undertaken during transition.     

Trade and technology adoption

This paper endogenizes firms' choices of production technology in what would be a standard Melitz model otherwise. The responses of firms' productivity to trade liberalization are heterogenous: exporters, on average, improve their level of technology adoption, whereas nonexporters downgrade their level of technology adoption. The degree to which firms adjust production technology depends on domestic market size, export destination market size, trade impediments, and export status. The conflicting empirical results of the impact of trade liberalization on exporters' productivity are rationalized by showing that changes in different trade costs (variable vs. fixed costs) affect firms' productivity differently. We calibrate the model's parameters to match firms' characteristics in the global economy. The results indicate that endogenous productivity increases the gains from trade liberalization.     

World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors

This paper is motivated by the unparalleled increase in foreign direct investment to emerging market economies of the last 25 years. Using a large cross-country time-series data set, we evaluate the dependence of foreign direct investment on global factors, or worldwide sources of risk (i.e., factors that drive foreign direct investment across several countries). We construct a globalization measure that equals the share of explained variation in direct investment attributable to global factors. We show that our globalization measure has increased steadily for developing and developed countries. For the full sample of countries, the globalization measure rose by over 10-fold from 1985 to 1999. Furthermore, in recent years, developing countries' exposure to global factors has approached that of developed countries. Finally, our globalization measure correlates strongly with measures of capital market liberalization, supporting our hypothesis that increased market integration leads to a greater role for worldwide sources of risk. We discuss the implications of our results for public policies regarding capital market liberalization and policies directed at attracting foreign investment.