Is per capita real GDP stationary in five southeastern European countries? Fourier unit root test

This study uses the newly developed Fourier unit root test advanced by Enders and Lee (2004, 2009) to investigate the time-series properties of real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for five Southeastern European countries for the period from 1969 to 2009. The empirical results from several conventional unit root tests indicate that the per capita real GDP for all of the countries studied are non-stationary; however, when Enders and Lee (2004, 2009) Fourier unit root tests are conducted, one rejects the unit root hypothesis of real GDP per capita in all countries under study. These results have important policy implications for these five Southeastern European countries under study.     

Unawareness of theorems

This paper provides a set-theoretic model of knowledge and unawareness. A new property called Awareness Leads to Knowledge shows that unawareness of theorems not only constrains an agent’s knowledge, but also can impair his reasoning about what other agents know. For example, in contrast to Li (J Econ Theory 144:977–993, 2009), Heifetz et al. (J Econ Theory 130:78–94, 25 2006) and the standard model of knowledge, it is possible that two agents disagree on whether another agent knows a particular event. The model follows Aumann (Ann Stat 4:1236–1239, 1976) in defining common knowledge and characterizing it in terms of a self-evident event, but departs in showing that no-trade theorems do not hold.     

Dominance testing for ‘pro-poor’ growth with an application to European growth

This article introduces statistical testing procedures to evaluate ??pro-poor?? growth. Our measure of ??pro-poorness?? follows Kakwani (J Quant Econ 16(1):67?C80, 2000), Kakwani and Pernia (Asian Dev Rev 18(1):1?C16, 2000), and Son (Econ Lett 82:307?C314, 2004), who decompose the generalized Lorenz ordinates into a growth effect and an inequality effect. We derive an asymptotic distribution-free covariance matrix for the decomposed generalized Lorenz curves. Using this decomposition (and our standard errors), we test for pro-poor dominance in the growth process. We illustrate our test for the pro-poor dominance by evaluating the degree of pro-poor growth in five European countries.     

Competition, knowledge, and local government

This paper applies the insights of Austrian economics to an important issue in local political economy. Basic economic theory holds that greater competition produces superior outcomes in private goods markets. The same should be true in the ??markets?? for the output of local government. Brennan and Buchanan (1977, 1980) show that interjurisdictional competition may serve as a potential restraint on the monopoly powers of local Leviathan and Tiebout (1956) shows that it may help lead to the production of efficient quantities of local public goods. However, other potential virtues of competition in the market for local collective goods have been largely ignored. This paper explores those other virtues as well as the neoclassical theoretical foundations of the Tiebout (1956) model, upon which much of this literature is based. This has public policy implications for local governments, which have taken on increased importance given the recent global movement towards more decentralized government.     

Lorenz rankings of rules for the adjudication of conflicting claims

For the adjudication of conflicting claims, we develop three general approaches to obtain Lorenz rankings of rules. Our first approach concerns a parameterized family that contains several important rules (Thomson in Soc Choice Welf 31:667?C692, 2008). We give a condition that the parameters defining two members of the family should satisfy for one of them to Lorenz dominate the other. Our second approach exploits the concept of ??consistency?? (Young in Math Oper Res 12:398?C414, 1987). We derive a criterion to deduce Lorenz domination for arbitrarily many claimants from Lorenz domination in the two-claimant case. Our third approach is based on the notion of an ??operator?? on the space of rules (Thomson and Yeh in J Econ Theory 143:177?C198, 2008). We develop conditions under which operators preserve the Lorenz order, or reverse it. As corollaries of our general theorems, we obtain rankings of most of the rules that have been discussed in the literature.     

More equal but not so fair: an analysis of Brazilian income distribution from 1995 to 2009

This study measures unfair inequality in Brazil between 1995 and 2009. To achieve that, we used the statistical tool developed by Almås et al. (J Public Econ 95:488–499, 2011) and the concept of “responsibility-sensitive” fairness proposed by Bossert (Math Soc Sci 29:1–17, 1995), Konow (J Econ Behav Organ 31(1):13–35, 1996) and Cappelen and Tungodden (Fairness and the proportionality principle, Discussion paper SAM 31/2007. Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, 2007). The results indicate that the fairness level in Brazil remained unchanged throughout the analyzed period.     

Definitions of ambiguous events and the smooth ambiguity model

We examine a variety of preference-based definitions of ambiguous events in the context of the smooth ambiguity model. We first consider the definition proposed in Klibanoff et?al. (Econometrica 73(6):1849?C1892, 2005) based on the classic Ellsberg two-urn paradox (Ellsberg Q J Econ 75:643?C669, 1961) and show that it satisfies several desirable properties. We then compare this definition with those of Nehring (Math Soc Sci 38(2):197?C213, 1999), Epstein and Zhang (Econometrica 69:265?C306, 2001), Zhang (Econ Theory 20:159?C181, 2002), and Ghirardato and Marinacci (J Econ Theory 102:251?C289, 2002). Within the smooth ambiguity model, we show that Ghirardato and Marinacci (J Econ Theory 102:251?C289, 2002) would identify the same set of ambiguous and unambiguous events as our definition while Epstein and Zhang (Econometrica 69:265?C306, 2001) and Zhang (Econ Theory 20:159?C181, 2002) would yield a different classification. Moreover, we discuss and formally identify two key sources of the differences compared to Epstein and Zhang (Econometrica 69:265?C306, 2001) and Zhang (Econ Theory 20:159?C181, 2002). The more interesting source is that these two definitions can confound non-constant ambiguity attitude and the ambiguity of an event.     

The visible hand: finger ratio (2D:4D) and competitive bidding

In an experiment using two-bidder first-price sealed bid auctions with symmetric independent private values and 400 subjects, we scan also the right hand of each subject. We study how the ratio of the length of the index and ring fingers (2D:4D) of the right hand, a measure of prenatal hormone exposure, is correlated with bidding behavior and total profits. 2D:4D has been reported to predict competitiveness in sports competition (Manning and Taylor in Evol. Hum. Behav. 22:61–69, 2001, and H?nekopp et al. in Horm. Behav. 49:545–549, 2006), risk aversion in lottery tasks (Dreber and Hoffman in Portfolio selection in utero. Stockholm School of Economics, 2007; Garbarino et al. in J. Risk Uncertain. 42:1–26, 2011), and the average profitability of high-frequency traders in financial markets (Coates et al. in Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106:623–628, 2009). We do not find any significant correlation between 2D:4D on either bidding or profits. However, there might be racial differences in the correlation between 2D:4D and bidding and profits.     

Liquidity and asset prices in rational expectations equilibrium with ambiguous information

The quality of information in financial asset markets is often hard to estimate. Reminiscent of the famous Ellsberg paradox, investors may be unable to form a single probability belief about asset returns conditional on information signals and may act on the basis of ambiguous (or multiple) probability beliefs. This paper analyzes information transmission in asset markets when agents?? information is ambiguous. We consider a market with risk-averse informed investors, risk-neutral competitive arbitrageurs, and noisy supply of the risky asset, first studied by Vives (Rev Financ Stud 8:3?C40, 1995a, J Econ Theory 67:178?C204, 1995b) with unambiguous information. Ambiguous information gives rise to the possibility of illiquid market where arbitrageurs choose not to trade in a rational expectations equilibrium. When market is illiquid, small informational or supply shocks have relatively large effects on asset prices.     

A Time-Series Investigation of the U.S. Real Health Expenditure: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests

This paper contributes to the literature on health expenditure studies by applying the non-linear unit root tests formulated recently by Kapetanios et al. (Journal of Econometrics 112(2):359?C79, 2003) to empirically test whether the U.S. real health expenditure time-series are non-stationary or non-linear and globally stationary during a relatively long period from 1965 to 2009. For comparison purposes, it also reports the results of a battery of traditional linear unit root tests and the Lee and Strazicich??s minimum LM unit root (Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4):1082?C1089, 2003) test for structural breaks. The empirical findings of the paper show that in the United States during the period under investigation, the real health expenditure time-series are non-stationary in levels. Policy implications of the empirical findings are discussed.     

Rationality, political economy, and fiscal responsibility: wrestling with tragedy on the fiscal commons

The continuing budget deficits and accumulating public debt that commonly plagues western democracies reflects a clash between two rationalities regarding human governance: one of private property and its conventions and one of common property and its procedural framework. Democratic budgeting creates a form of fiscal commons whose governance is subject to the tragic outcomes depicted by Garret Hardin (in Science 162:1243?C1248, 1968). To be sure, tragedy can be avoided as Elinor Ostrom (1990) explains, but only to the extent that the fiscal commons is governed in a manner consonant with Antonio De Viti de Marco??s (1936) model of the cooperative state. While the tragedy of the commons that results from this tectonic clash is an inherent feature of democratic political economy, that tragedy can nonetheless be limited through reasserting the conventions and institutions of a constitution of liberty.     

Inequality aversion and separability in social risk evaluation

This paper examines how to satisfy “independence of the utilities of the dead” (Blackorby et al. in Econometrica 63:1303–1320, 1995; Bommier and Zuber in Soc Choice Welf 31:415–434, 2008) in the class of “expected equally distributed equivalent” social orderings (Fleurbaey in J Polit Econ 118:649–680, 2010) and inquires into the possibility to keep some aversion to inequality in this context. It is shown that the social welfare function must either be utilitarian or take a special multiplicative form. The multiplicative form is compatible with any degree of inequality aversion, but only under some constraints on the range of individual utilities.     

Fictitious students creation incentives in school choice problems

We identify a new channel through which schools can potentially manipulate the well-known student and school-optimal stable mechanisms. We introduce two fictitious students creation manipulation notions where one of them is stronger. While the student and school-optimal stable mechanisms turn out to be weakly fictitious student-proof under acyclic (Ergin in Econometrica 88:485–494, 2002) and essentially homogeneous (Kojima in Games Econ Behav 82:1–14, 2013) priority structures, respectively, they still lack strong fictitious student-proofness. We then compare the mechanisms in terms of their vulnerability to manipulations in the sense of Pathak and Sönmez (Am Econ Rev 103(1):80–106, 2013) and find out that the student-optimal stable mechanism is more manipulable than the school-optimal one. Lastly, in the large market setting of Kojima and Pathak (Am Econ Rev 99(3):608–627, 2009), the student-optimal stable mechanism becomes weakly fictitious student-proof as the market is getting large.     

Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting

Global vector autoregressions (GVARs) have several attractive features: multiple potential channels for the international transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks, a standardized economically appealing choice of variables for each country or region examined, systematic treatment of long-run properties through cointegration analysis, and flexible dynamic specification through vector error correction modeling. Pesaran et al. (2009) generate and evaluate forecasts from a paradigm GVAR with 26 countries, based on Dées, di Mauro et al. (2007). The current paper empirically assesses the GVAR in Dées, di Mauro et al. (2007) with impulse indicator saturation (IIS)??a new generic procedure for evaluating parameter constancy, which is a central element in model-based forecasting. The empirical results indicate substantial room for an improved, more robust specification of that GVAR. Some tests are suggestive of how to achieve such improvements.     

Walras’ theory of capital formation: an intertemporal equilibrium reformulation

We develop a mainstream reformulation of the original Walras?? model of capital accumulation. We overcome the shortcomings of the original model. First, we prove the existence of intertemporal competitive equilibria. Our proof combines a well known theorem due to Yannelis and Prabhakar (J Math Econ 12:233?C245, 1983) with a lemma due to Geanakoplos (Econ Theory 21:585?C603, 2003). Secondly, we remedy the indeterminacy of allocation of savings across multiple types of capital goods by introducing a storage technology. Finally, we show that, for stored capital goods, the equality of rates of returns emerges endogenously in equilibrium, while it was imposed by Walras from the outset in his original contribution.     

Monopoly pricing when consumers are antagonized by unexpected price increases: a “cover version” of the Heidhues–K?szegi–Rabin model

This paper reformulates and simplifies a recent model by Heidhues and K?szegi (The impact of consumer loss aversion on pricing, Mimeo, 2005), which in turn is based on a behavioral model due to K?szegi and Rabin (Q J Econ 121:1133?C1166, 2006). The model analyzes optimal pricing when consumers are loss averse in the sense that an unexpected price hike lowers their willingness to pay. The main message of the Heidhues?CK?szegi model, namely that this form of consumer loss aversion leads to rigid price responses to cost fluctuations, carries over. I demonstrate the usefulness of this ??cover version?? of the Heidhues?CK?szegi-Rabin model by obtaining new results: (1) loss aversion lowers expected prices; (2) the firm??s incentive to adopt a rigid pricing strategy is stronger when fluctuations are in demand rather than in costs.     

The irrelevance of normative considerations for founding an Austrian law and economics: Reply to Marciano

In a comment on my paper, ??An Austrian approach to law and economics, with special reference to superstition?? (Leeson 2012), Marciano contends that Posnerian foundations ??may be problematic for an Austrian approach to law and economics??. In this reply I argue that the differences between Posner and Austrians that Marciano uses as the basis for his contention are normative. If, as Austrians claim, Austrian economics is purely positive, those differences are irrelevant to the appropriate foundations for an Austrian law and economics. They pose no problem for a Posnerian founding.     

Second-order ambiguous beliefs

This paper axiomatizes models of second-order ambiguous beliefs in the original domain of preferences of Anscombe and Aumann (Ann Math Stat 34:199–205, 1963) by weakening the first-stage independence postulate. The models we propose include the second-order subjective expected utility (SOSEU) of Seo (Econometrica 77:1575–1605, 2009) as a particular case. We characterize the intersection of our models of second-order ambiguity with the canonical models of (first-order) ambiguity aversion and provide a further generalization of SOSEU by relaxing the completeness axiom.     

Are the treasures of game theory ambiguous?

Goeree and Holt (Am Econ Rev 91:1402?C1422, 2001) experimentally study a number of games. In each case, they initially find strong support for Nash equilibrium; however, by changing an apparently irrelevant parameter, they find results which contradict Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we study the five normal form games from Goeree and Holt (Am Econ Rev 91:1402?C1422, 2001). We argue that their results may be explained by the hypothesis that subjects view their opponents?? behaviour as ambiguous. Ambiguity-aversion causes players to avoid strategies, which give low out of equilibrium payoffs. Similarly, ambiguity preference can make strategies with high payoffs more attractive.     

The effects of the take-option in dictator-game experiments: a comment on Engel’s (2011) meta-study

In this paper, we report a replication of Engel’s (Exp. Econ. 14(4):583–610, 2011) meta-study of dictator game experiments. We find Engel’s meta-study of dictator game experiments to be robust, with one important exception: the coding of the take-option (List in J. Polit. Econ. 115(3):482–493, 2007; Bardsley in Exp. Econ. 11(2):122–133, 2008; Cappelen et al. in Econ. Lett. 118(2):280–283, 2013). While Engel reports this as having no statistically significant effect, in our replications, we find an economically and statistically significant negative effect on giving in line with the relevant literature.