货币政策与财政政策的“新共识”

20世纪90年代以来,宏观经济政策领域出现了一种"新共识",近年来得到进一步发展。在"新共识"宏观经济模型中,货币存量不起作用,但货币政策被赋予非常重要的作用,货币政策可以决定通货膨胀;货币政策采用盯住通货膨胀的方式,通过调节利率将通货膨胀控制在一个较低的水平。财政政策在管理总需求水平方面仍然是一个强有力的工具,"新共识"宏观经济学体现了"货币主义与财政主义的综合"。     

Overturning Mundell: Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union

Central to ongoing debates over the desirability of monetary unions is a supposed trade-off, outlined by Mundell (1961) : a monetary union reduces transactions costs but renders stabilization policy less effective. If shocks across countries are sufficiently correlated, then, according to this argument, delegating monetary policy to a single central bank is not very costly and a monetary union is desirable.
This paper explores this argument in a setting with both monetary and fiscal policies. In an economy with monetary policy alone, we confirm the presence of the trade-off and find that indeed a monetary union will not be welfare improving if the correlation of national shocks is too low. However, fiscal interventions by national governments, combined with a central bank that has the ability to commit to monetary policy, overturn these results. In equilibrium, such a monetary union will be welfare improving for any correlation of shocks.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU

Abstract. This paper studies the design and effects of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area. To do so, a stylized two‐region model of monetary and fiscal policy rules in the EMU is built. We analyse how monetary and fiscal rules affect the adjustment dynamics in the model. Both the effects on the individual countries and on the EMU aggregate economy are studied. Three aspects play an important role in the analysis: (i) the consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policy rules, (ii) the consequences of asymmetries between EMU countries (asymmetries in macroeconomic shocks and macroeconomic structures), and (iii) the role of alternative degrees of backward‐ and forward‐looking behaviour in consumer decisions and inflation expectations.     

Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate

Domestic fiscal and monetary policy settings can influence the strength of the Australia dollar in a number of different ways.     

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in an Endogenous Growth Model With Financial Intermediaries

This paper presents a framework that can help reconcile conflicting findings in the growth-inflation literature. Here, the behavior of financial intermediaries plays a crucial role in the determination of the economy's inflation and real growth rates. Absent any restrictions on financial intermediation, there will be a unique equilibrium when agents are fairly risk averse. In this case, an increase in seigniorage-financed government spending will always be inflationary and detrimental to growth. When agents exhibit a low degree of risk aversion, multiple equilibria emerge and a positive relation between inflation and growth à la Tobin can be observed.     

Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules

The Fiscal Stability Pact for EMU implies that constraints on fiscal policy facilitate inflation control. In this paper we identify two stable policy regimes. When monetary policy seeks to raise real interest rates in response to excess inflation, a self-stabilising fiscal policy is required to ensure model stability. A fiscal policy which does not, by itself, ensure fiscal solvency constrains monetary policy to be relatively 'passive'. However, in simulations we conclude that the central bank does not need to seek, on this account, the degree of debt stabilisation that appears to be implied by the fiscal stability pact.     

Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy

We study the implications of alternative monetary targeting procedures for real interest rates and economic activity. We find that countercyclical monetary policy rules lead to higher real interest rates, higher average tax rates, lower output but lower variability of tax rates and consumption relative to procyclical rules. For a country with a high level of public debt (e.g. Italy), the adoption of a countercyclical procedure such as interest rate pegging may conceivably raise public debt servicing costs by more than half a percentage point of GNP. Our analysis suggests that the current debate on the targeting procedures of the European Central Bank ought to be broadened to include a discussion of the fiscal implications of monetary policy.     

Monetary Stabilisation Policy in a Monetary Union: Some Simple Analytics

We do two things in this paper. First, we look at some simple models of monetary decision making in a monetary union and ask how much more variable a country's output and inflation is likely to be if it joins the union. We answer this analytically and then go on to 'calibrate' the simple model. The model has few structural equations, but it is useful in allowing us to examine how the variability of output and inflation are likely to change as key parameters change. Our conclusions on this front are likely to be sensitive to model specification. However, we also identify a second best issue concerning the optimal make–up of the monetary union which is likely to be more robust: namely that only when all members of the union have the same structural parameter values (and shocks are perfectly correlated) will it be optimal for a new member to have these same structural parameter values.     

论我国财政政策与货币政策的选择

财政政策与货币政策都是有效的。积极的财政政策的负面影响不能低估，财政风险的波及面更大，其影响的深度和广度也较金融风险为甚。治理通缩，货币政策不应是消极和无所作为的，应随宏观经济形势变动而适时调整。特别在积极的财政政策换位时，宽松的货币政策应作为首选，否则，货币政策就会“失职”。     

On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.     

我国财政货币政策的调整与制度安排

为启动内需 ,我国于 1998年实施了积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策 ,随着时间的推移 ,需要对其进行调整。调整的取向是向适度的财政政策和稳健的货币政策转变 ;调控方向应由基础建设投资向产业结构调整转变。加强财政货币政策协调运行的制度建设 ,提高货币政策的传导效率和财政政策的运行效率。     

欧元体系财政与货币政策协调性分析

欧元区集中统一的货币政策和权力分散的财政政策 ,已有 4年多的实践历程 ,实践表明财政与货币政策协调性较差 ,欧盟的机构设置与政策结构的设计的确存在缺陷 ,采取扩张性货币政策缓解内部冲击与价格稳定首要目标已处于两难境地。实现统一的“大财政”,通过财政转移 ,重新配置资源 ,以帮助成员国吸收不对称冲击的影响 ,是提高欧元体系财政与货币政策协调性措施之一。     

The Simple Post-Keynesian Monetary Policy Model: An Open Economy Approach

Monetary policy with an inflation targeting rule is analyzed through a simple small-scale Post-Keynesian model that incorporates open economy issues. In contrast with previous Post-Keynesian attempts, the model embodies policy authorities that are committed not only to hitting inflation and/or output targets, but also to the achievement of the external balance. To take account of the external balance objective, we model the real exchange rate as an endogenous and moving target, with the nominal exchange rate being the instrument of that target. The model shows that in response to an adverse external shock the central bank has to consider first the required real exchange rate adjustment that will preserve the external balance, and secondly the level at which the interest rate must be set in order to maintain inflation stabilization. Keeping inflation to target requires higher interest rates and strong reliance on the unemployment channel which, under certain circumstances, also has adverse side effects on income distribution. We show that to deal with an exogenous external shock a policy mix of real exchange rate targeting and income distribution targeting outperforms inflation targeting.     

京津冀治理大气污染的财政金融政策协同配合

京津冀协同发展的根本取向是低碳绿色发展。以治理大气污染为导向,以能源革命为保障条件,带动经济社会全面、协调、持续发展,是京津冀协同发展的客观要求。治理京津冀大气污染,需要按照节能减排目标,淘汰落后产能,改造提升产业结构,调整优化能源结构,提高能源利用效率,控制和减少污染物排放。实现“治污带动发展,发展促进治污”的京津冀协同发展,不仅需要技术支持,更需要资金支持。在多渠道资金投入保障机制方面,必须搞好财政金融政策协同配合,在注重发挥财政政策引导能力和支持作用的同时,更加注重发挥市场的决定作用,发挥多层次资本市场融资功能,多渠道引导金融机构、实体企业、社会资金,积极投入到节能减排和产业结构改造升级中,为治理京津冀大气污染,实现京津冀协同发展提供相应的资金保障。     

后遗症，，财政政策与货币政策效应的途径

本文基于我国特定的微观基础，并根据转轨经济体制变迁和社会群体分化的一般规律，从构建与市场经济相容的微观基础、逐步实行利率市场化、改革国有商业银行的产权制度和经营机制、深化投融资体制改革、提高低收入阶层的收入水平、增加有效供给和改革财税体制等方面，论述了提高财政货币政策效应的途径或措施问题。     

提高财政政策与货币政策效应的途径

本文基于我国特定的微观基础 ,并根据转轨经济体制变迁和社会群体分化的一般规律 ,从构建与市场经济相容的微观基础、逐步实行利率市场化、改革国有商业银行的产权制度和经营机制、深化投融资体制改革、提高低收入阶层的收入水平、增加有效供给和改革财税体制等方面 ,论述了提高财政货币政策效应的途径或措施问题。     

Productivity Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Two-Country Model

In this paper, we examine the effects of foreign productivity shocks on monetary policy in a symmetric open economy. Our two-country model incorporates the New Keynesian features of price stickiness and monopolistic competition based on the cost channel of Ravenna and Walsh (2006). In particular, in response to asymmetric productivity shocks, firms in one country achieve a more efficient level of production than those in another economy. Because the terms of trade are directly affected by changes in both economies’ output levels, international trade creates a transmission channel for inflation dynamics in which a deflationary spiral in foreign producer prices reduces domestic output. When there is a decline in economic activity, the monetary authority should react to this adverse situation by lowering the key interest rate. The impulse response function from the model shows that a productivity shock can cause a real depreciation of the exchange rate when economies are closely integrated through international trade.     

现阶段财政政策与货币政策协调配合的几个问题

本文分析了宏观间接调控所主要依仗的财政、货币两大政策的异同及协调配合的必要性,提出财政政策侧重于调结构和货币政策侧重于调总量的分工,并具体讨论了在国债、财政存款、外汇储备等"结合部"领域的合理协调,最后强调了优化我国两大政策协调配合所应注重的制度建设问题。