A keynesian macro-econometric model of the UK: 1955–1984

In this paper we present a small Keynesian macro-economic model in which wage-price determination is linked to the working of goods and money markets. By explicitly treating the Keynes effect we derive a general expression for the employment-money supply elasticity, and draw the IS-LM loci in the employment-interest rate space Our empirical specification allows for short-run disequilibrium dynamic adjustments around the static long-run relations predicted by the theoretical model. By careful use of our specification search strategy we obtain a statistically sound econometric model, which exhibits sensible long-run properties. A remarkable finding implied by our estimates is that equilibrium unemployment is negatively affected by both money supply and incomes policy.     

The in-depth testing of survey questions: A critical appraisal of methods

It has become increasingly apparent that the conventional piloting, or pre-testing, of survey questions does not ensure that questions are understood by respondents as researchers intend them to be understood. This has led survey methodologists to advocate the use of indepth testing procedures. While some of the procedures used to identify comprehension problems appear to be reasonably effective, almost all of the procedures used to identify other kinds of problems have not proved to be very useful. Two reasons stand out as explanations for this general lack of success. First, the probes used are themselves not likely to be interpreted in the same way by different respondents. Second, the cognitive psychological assumptions that have suggested many of the procedures may not adequately reflect the processes that underlie the way questions are answered. A number of suggestions are made with the view to making the in-depth testing of survey questions a more profitable exercise.     

Market‐oriented institutions and policies and economic growth: A critical survey

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent evidence suggesting that market‐oriented institutions and policies are strongly related to economic growth, focusing on studies using the economic freedom (EF) indicator of the Fraser Institute. This index is critically discussed. Also various serious shortcomings of empirical studies using this index are identified. Nevertheless, there are strong indications that liberalization, i.e. an increase in the EF index, stimulates economic growth. This paper also reviews studies on the determinants of EF. Political liberalization is often found to enhance economic liberalization, whereas there is less evidence for causality running in the other direction.     

Multivariate GARCH models: a survey

This paper surveys the most important developments in multivariate ARCH‐type modelling. It reviews the model specifications and inference methods, and identifies likely directions of future research. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stock-flow consistent macro-econometric model of the UK economy—part II

This paper is the second of a series of two which describe the estimation and simulation of a stock-flow consistent macro-economic model of the UK economy. The first part (Davis, 1987) surveyed the theoretical literature on stock-adjustment dynamics, criticized existing UK forecasting models for omitting many potential stock-flow interactions and gave an outline of the model which is constructed here. The estimation and simulation results suggest that variables encapsulating such stock-flow effects are frequently significant in the estimation of key equations, and that their inclusion may make a sizeable difference to the simulation properties of a model.     

A stock-flow consistent macro-econometric model of the UK economy—part I

This paper surveys briefly the main theoretical developments in the analysis of stock and flow integration in macro-economics, then proceeds to use this corpus of theory as a critique of the structure of existing macro-econometric models of the British economy. An outline is then suggested for a model which would take all of these stock-flow effects into account, given the macro-economic data currently available. In a following paper (Davis, 1987) we give a detailed account of estimation and simulation of such a stock-flow consistent model.     

Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence

It is known that the small sample significance levels of Cox-type tests of non-nested regression models can be much greater than the nominal level. Adjustments designed to overcome this problem are discussed and two tests are proposed. Monte Carlo evidence on the performance of the tests derived in this paper, the Davidson-MacKinnon J-test and the Fisher-McAleer test is presented. The F-test applied to the comprehensive model is also included in the simulation experiments.     

Tests on the validity of static equilibrium models

This paper provides a framework to test the validity of static cost minimizing equilibrium assumptions that form the basis for much of the empirical literature on industrial production. The point of departure in our model is to allow the observed technology to be at a short-run equilibrium where firms minimize variable costs while being constrained by the utilization levels of quasi-fixed factors. The long-run equilibrium is then inferred by minimizing total costs with the optimal adjustment of quasi-fixed factor levels.We use results from the optimization problem to form tests with respect to quantities and prices. In the quantity space version, departures between the actual and the optimal long-run levels of quasi-fixed factors are tested for statistical significance. A significant non-zero departure implies the rejection of a static equilibrium specification. In the price space version, the test is cast as a comparison of the market price and the long-run shadow value of a quasi-fixed factor. Although the two versions would give identical results in the non-stochastic case, the rejection powers of these two tests are found to depend on the particular functional form chosen to represent the production process (i.e. cost function).In an application based on aggregate U.S. manufacturing where capital is taken to be quasi-fixed, we were able to reject the static equilibrium specification. These results cast doubt on the validity of a number of previous empirical studies.     

Tests of risk premia in linear factor models

We show that statistical inference on the risk premia in linear factor models that is based on the Fama–MacBeth (FM) and generalized least squares (GLS) two-pass risk premia estimators is misleading when the β$\beta$’s are small and/or the number of assets is large. We propose novel statistics, that are based on the maximum likelihood estimator of Gibbons [Gibbons, M., 1982. Multivariate tests of financial models: A new approach. Journal of Financial Economics 10, 3–27], which remain trustworthy in these cases. The inadequacy of the FM and GLS two-pass t$t$/Wald statistics is highlighted in a power and size comparison using quarterly portfolio returns from Lettau and Ludvigson [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S., 2001. Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying. Journal of Political Economy 109, 1238–1287]. The power and size comparison shows that the FM and GLS two-pass t$t$/Wald statistics can be severely size distorted. The 95% confidence sets for the risk premia in the above-cited work that result from the novel statistics differ substantially from those that result from the FM and GLS two-pass t$t$-statistics. They show support for the human capital asset pricing model although the 95% confidence set for the risk premia on labor income growth is unbounded. The 95% confidence sets show no support for the (scaled) consumption asset pricing model, since the 95% confidence set of the risk premia on the scaled consumption growth consists of the whole real line, but do not reject it either.     

Estimation methods for stochastic volatility models: a survey

Abstract.  Although stochastic volatility (SV) models have an intuitive appeal, their empirical application has been limited mainly due to difficulties involved in their estimation. The main problem is that the likelihood function is hard to evaluate. However, recently, several new estimation methods have been introduced and the literature on SV models has grown substantially. In this article, we review this literature. We describe the main estimators of the parameters and the underlying volatilities focusing on their advantages and limitations both from the theoretical and empirical point of view. We complete the survey with an application of the most important procedures to the S&P 500 stock price index.     

Tests of seasonal integration and cointegration in multivariate unobserved component models

This paper considers tests of seasonal integration and cointegration for multivariate unobserved component models. First, the locally best invariant (LBI) test of the null hypothesis of a deterministic seasonal pattern against the alternative of seasonal integration is derived for a model with Gaussian i.i.d. disturbances and deterministic trend. Then the null hypothesis of seasonal cointegration is considered and a test for common nonstationary components at the seasonal frequencies is proposed. The tests are subsequently generalized to account for stochastic trends, weakly dependent errors and unattended unit roots. Asymptotic representations and critical values of the tests are provided, while the finite sample performance is evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation experiments. Finally, the tests are applied to the series of industrial production of the four largest countries of the European Monetary Union. It is found that Germany does not appear to cointegrate with the other countries at most seasonal frequencies, while there seems to exist a common nonstationary seasonal component between France, Italy and Spain. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tempus volat,hora fugit: A survey of tie-oriented dynamic network models in discrete and continuous time

Given the growing number of available tools for modeling dynamic networks, the choice of a suitable model becomes central. The goal of this survey is to provide an overview of tie-oriented dynamic network models. The survey is focused on introducing binary network models with their corresponding assumptions, advantages, and shortfalls. The models are divided according to generating processes, operating in discrete and continuous time. First, we introduce the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) and the separable TERGM (STERGM), both being time-discrete models. These models are then contrasted with continuous process models, focusing on the relational event model (REM). We additionally show how the REM can handle time-clustered observations, that is, continuous-time data observed at discrete time points. Besides the discussion of theoretical properties and fitting procedures, we specifically focus on the application of the models on two networks that represent international arms transfers and email exchange, respectively. The data allow to demonstrate the applicability and interpretation of the network models.     

Two new models for survey sampling with sensitive characteristic: design and analysis

Sensitive topics or highly personal questions are often being asked in medical, psychological and sociological surveys. This paper proposes two new models (namely, the triangular and crosswise models) for survey sampling with the sensitive characteristics. We derive the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) and large-sample confidence intervals for the proportion of persons with sensitive characteristic. The modified MLEs and their asymptotic properties are developed. Under certain optimality criteria, the designs for the cooperative parameter are provided and the sample size formulas are given. We compare the efficiency of the two models based on the variance criterion. The proposed models have four advantages: neither model requires randomizing device, the models are easy to be implemented for both interviewer and interviewee, the interviewee does not face any sensitive questions, and both models can be applied to both face-to-face personal interviews and mail questionnaires.     

Semiparametric econometrics: A survey

Semiparametric econometric models contain both parametric and nonparametric components, reflecting in some fashion what has been learned from economic theory and previous empirical experience, and what remains unknown. They raise such questions as how well the parametric component can be estimated, and how to construct rules of inference with good statistical properties. The paper attempts to survey the econometric and most relevant statistical literature on semiparametric inference, and includes a partial bibliography.     

Talent management: A critical review

If the volume of literature in the popular and practitioner press is any guide, practitioners in the field of human resources are now primarily in the business of talent management. But what is talent management and what basis does it have in scientific principles of human resources and management? In this paper we address this question by reviewing problems with the definition of talent management and the lack of data supporting many practitioner claims. We then outline research that supports a systems-oriented definition of talent management that focuses on the strategic management of talent. We then outline future avenues of research to further develop the field of talent management and tie it more closely to the large volume of work in strategic human resources management.     

Innovation ecosystems: A critical examination

Publications pushing the “innovation ecosystem” meme have added valuable dimensions to the economic development discussion. The phrase has captured the imagination of policy makers and has motivated public initiatives of substantial magnitude. This paper reviews the concept of innovation ecosystems as it is set forth in the academic and trade literature, and asks, “What is gained from adding ‘eco-’ to our treatment of national and regional innovation systems?”The answer is, “Very little, and the risks outweigh the benefits.” Innovation ecosystem is not yet a clearly defined concept, much less a theory. Moreover, the idea carries pitfalls, notably its over-emphasis on market forces, and its flawed analogy to natural ecosystems.The prospect that the phrase “innovation ecosystem” is here to stay, in investment and economic development circles, implies a research gap, and indicates caution in using the phrase in rigorous research. The paper describes the gap, indicates directions for bridging it, and offers recommendations for prudent use of “ecosystem” terminology.     

Stage models of corporate ‘greening’: a critical evaluation

Corporate ‘greening’, i.e. the process by which companies can become more environmentally responsible in their operations, has attracted considerable interest lately. Largely born out of hands-on consultancy experience, various models have been proposed which describe a series of ‘stages’ by which companies become progressively more environmentally conscious and reduce their impact on the natural environment. The present article critically analyses some of these ‘stage’ models of corporate ‘greening’ from both an empirical and a management theoretical point of view. The empirical analysis is based on four case studies of the ‘greening’ efforts of companies in the UK water and electricity industries. Environmental strategy and management in these companies is found to fit poorly into the stage models of corporate ‘greening’. The article concludes that more comprehensive and interpretative explanations of organizational ‘greening’ are needed, including contextual and process oriented analysis. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Empirical labor search: A survey

This paper surveys the existing empirical research that uses search theory to empirically analyze labor supply questions in a structural framework, using data on individual labor market transitions and durations, wages, and individual characteristics. The starting points of the literature are the Mincerian earnings function, Heckman's classic selection model, and dynamic optimization theory. We develop a general framework for the labor market where the search for a job involves dynamic decision making under uncertainty. It can be specialized to be in agreement with most published research using labor search models. We discuss estimation, policy evaluation with the estimated model, equilibrium model versions, and the decomposition of wage variation into factors due to heterogeneity of various model determinants as well as search frictions themselves. We summarize the main empirical conclusions.