Intraindustry Trade and Relative Factor Endowments

This article investigates the relationship between relative factor endowments and intraindustry trade shares in bilateral trade flows. While Helpman and Krugman's theoretical framework predicts a negative relationship, empirical studies often report contrary results. We, however, argue that previous empirical studies fail to provide an exact link between the theory and the data. New empirical evidence based on the estimating equation derived directly from the theoretical framework demonstrates that the theory finds support in the data once the sums of capital–labor ratios are controlled for.     

Marginal Intraindustry Trade and Labor Adjustment

In the context of Ethier's model of the division of labor, this paper accomplishes three tasks. First, it complements existing literature on the algebraic properties of marginal intraindustry trade (MIIT) measures by embedding one of these measures in a general equilbrium model. Consistent with the existing literature, it is found that change in the Grubel–Lloyd index provides systematically different economic information from change in the MIIT index. Second, it examines the connection between intraindustry trade and intra- industry adjustment. Here it is found that the informal assumption that intraindustry trade generates only intraindustry adjustment cannot be sustained. That is, intraindustry trade will generally induce interindustry adjustment. Finally, because intraindustry trade generates interindustry adjustment, increased intraindustry trade will generally induce long-run changes in relative factor prices. This suggests, given the prominence of intraindustry trade in OECD countries, that there may be problems with inference on the link between rade and wages undertaken in a strict Heckscher–Ohlin framework.     

Dynamics of Intraindustry Trade and Labor-Market Adjustment

This paper investigates some dynamic aspects of the 'smooth adjustment hypothesis' that is commonly associated with intraindustry trade (IIT). The analysis is conducted on a panel of plant-level employment data and industry-level production and trade data for Ireland. Rates of intraindustry job turnover are used as a proxy for labor-market adjustment. Three findings stand out. First, a measure of marginal IIT is found to be more appropriate for the analysis of adjustment issues than the traditional static IIT index. Second, the effect of marginal IIT on labor-market adjustment is most significant in the short term, namely for indices calculated on one-year ntervals and lagged by one year. Third, the most significant determinants of the intraindustry job turnover rate are sector-level plant concentration ratios and trade openness.     

Differences in GDP Per Capita and the Share of Intraindustry Trade: The Role of Vertically Differentiated Trade

This paper examines the relationship between per capita GDP differences and bilateral intraindustry trade shares. The relationship is negative in OLS regressions but positive in fixed-effect regressions, and evidence is presented suggesting this is due to the presence of vertically differentiated trade. The paper begins by distinguishing between vertically and horizontally differentiated trade, and then finds a positive and significant relationship between GDP per capita differences and the trade shares only in the regressions on the vertically differentiated trade shares. It is shown also that the extent to which income distributions overlap affects only the share of vertically differentiated trade.     

产业内贸易与经济增长:基于人力资本的分析框架

贸易的知识扩散效应和贸易竞争的资源配置效应是长期内产业内贸易影响增长的最根本的两个方面。本文将包含贸易知识扩散程度参数的人力资本积累函数引入Bucci提出的经济增长模型,把模型拓展到开放经济环境,在动态贸易均衡中考察这两种效应。研究发现：贸易的知识扩散效应促进人力资本积累,有利于经济增长;贸易竞争效应使人力资本更多地配置到低效率的非竞争性部门,不利于经济增长。因此,产业内贸易对经济增长的影响取决于知识扩散效应和贸易竞争效应的影响程度的相对大小比较结果。     

Asymmetric Country-of-Origin Effects on Intraindustry Trade and the International Quality Race

A model of North–South intraindustry trade in quality differentiated products is proposed to examine the role of country-of-origin reputation in determining the competitive edge of emerging industries. It is shown that if consumers rationally harbor negative expectations about the quality of Southern products, economic progress in either the North or the South shifts the terms of trade against Southern exports, and worsens Southern producers' incentive to produce high-quality products. In addition, the paper illustrates the role of income redistributive policies in shifting consumer's demand in favor of Southern high-quality products.     

Hedging a Portfolio of Derivative Securities: A Simulation Approach

We illustrate a numerical simulation method to decompose a portfolio of derivative securities in a linear combination of dynamical risk factors. The price of the portfolio and its sensitivities are linear functions of these factors.
The method generalizes the static hedging theory proposed by Madan and Milne (1994) and applies to a dynamically complete, arbitrage free market with purely Brownian fluctuating assets. The extension to a class of market models whose volatility dynamics shows long memory and scaling behaviour is discussed and shown to be possible.
(J.E.L.: G12).     

股票发行认购不足的理论分析

股票发行认购不足,是指投资者认购股票的数量低于公司实际发行的股票数量.这种现象主要存在于公司配股过程中,而且投资者完全放弃认购的现象是非常少见的,通常是部分投资者认购股票,而部分投资者放弃认购股票.为什么不同的投资者选择不同的股票认购比例?文章以完全市场为假设前提,运用证券组合理论,分析了投资者选择认购股票比例的内在经济动机,研究结果表明,在完全市场条件下,投资者根据原有的投资组合以及股票风险,选择不同的认购比例.因此,确定合理的发行价格,允许配股权的转让,都可以有效降低股票发行认购不足的风险.     

Portfolio Composition Choice: A Behavioral Approach

This experimental study investigates portfolio composition choice for different types of financial assets and different levels of wealth. For a group of financially sophisticated executive MBA students with work experience in capital markets, the findings of this study indicate that the proportion of wealth invested in risky assets increases with wealth for all portfolio compositions examined, and increases with the degree of asset risk. This proportion is found to be as much as three times higher for common stocks than for options: For stock portfolios, it increases from 33% to 44% over the five wealth levels examined, and for options it increases from 11% to 17%. These results may imply a decreasing rel w proportions of their wealth in risky assets possess the following characteristics: they do not invest in options in real life; they sometimes buy lottery tickets; they assign a higher risk level to options than to common stocks; they are female; and they are employed.     

Intraindustry trade in intermediate goods

Since intermediate goods play such a vital role in foreign trade, this paper develops a model that explains the benefits from intraindustry trade in differentiated intermediate goods. In comparison with a situation of autarchy, this type of trade causes an increase in the number of intermediate good varieties. In this way, the producers of final goods will benefit from intermediate good varieties, which are closer to the ideal for a specific production process. At the same time, the producers of intermediate goods will, under conditions of international division of labor, benefit from economies of scale.     

US Trade in Advanced Technology Products

In 2002, US net exports of advanced technology products (ATPs) registered a deficit of US$16.6 billion for the first time. By 2006, the ATP trade deficit reached US$43.7 billion. This is primarily due to China's increasing importance as an ATP import source and does not indicate a wholesale loss of US competitiveness in ATPs. Mostly, China's market share gain came at the expense of other Asian countries. This geographical shift in China's favor is due to her greater integration with Asian supply chains. Trade gravity regressions show that the USA exports more advanced technology parts and accessories to lower income countries but advanced technology capital and consumer goods imports by the USA are not correlated with the income of the import source countries. Thus, there is weak evidence that labor cost savings via foreign assembly operations dominate US ATP trade with middle and low income countries.     

生产者服务贸易：一个基于赫克歇尔——俄林模型的方法

一、前言 　　最近,关于服务的作用及重要性的讨论（如参见,Gershuny and Miles 1983;Inman1985）对这方面的关注的高涨的部分原因是有着大量的美国代表表达的把服务贸易列为GATT谈判的一部份的愿望.但是尽管服务部门的重要性被量化,可是令人惊奇的是几乎没人去注意这方面的理论,特别是国际贸易理论.     

Towards a More General Approach to Trade Liberalization

Despite the frequency with which they have been promoted as a model of development. East Asian trade policies have had little influence on the normative economics of trade reform. In contrast to directly dismantling protection, developing countries have often provided concessional import rights which override existing protection. These instruments include EPZs and duty remission. This paper accommodates these instruments of 'new trade liberalization' within a more general understanding of trade liberalization illustrating their similarities and their differences. Both old and new trade liberalization can, on their own, bring about complete free trade. Needless to say, so far, neither has!     

Tariffs Versus Quotas in a Differentiated Products Market: A Conjectural Variations in Prices Approach

This paper examines the (non)equivalence of a tariff and a quota set at the level of imports generated by the tariff using a conjectural variations in prices model. It extends previous studies by considering a variety of firm behavior patterns in the tariff equilibrium and when the imports and the domestic products are complements. The results obtained encompass most of the previous results. In addition, for complements, replacing a tariff with a quota has opposite effects on the prices of two products. Also, the prices under tariffs and quotas are not necessarily equivalent for complements. [F13]     

中国农产品贸易问题研究

2005年底,中国进入后WTO过渡期,这意味着中国的农产品市场开放达到承诺的最高水平。中国农业普先面对的是农产品关税降至承诺的终点,加入WTO对中国农业的深远影响开始显现出来。分析后WTO时期中国农产品贸易问题,对推进农产品贸易的发展研究有着重要意义。     

Trade Union Rights,Democracy, and Exports: a Gravity Model Approach*

The paper uses a gravity trade model to evaluate the effects of trade union rights and democracy on exports for the 1993 to 1999 period for four classifications of manufacturing industries by labor‐intensity. The model includes data for 162 countries and used eight indicators of trade union rights and democracy, including those constructed by the authors. The paper finds robust relationships between stronger trade union rights and higher total manufacturing exports and between stronger democracy and higher total exports, total manufacturing exports, and labor‐intensive manufacturing exports. The paper finds that the relationship between trade union rights and labor‐intensive manufacturing exports is highly sensitive to the classification of labor‐intensive manufacturing industries and to model specification, yielding statistically significant results of opposite sign depending on assumptions.     

Measuring and Optimizing Portfolio Credit Risk: A Copula‐based Approach*

In this work, we present a methodology for measuring and optimizing the credit risk of a loan portfolio taking into account the non‐normality of the credit loss distribution. In particular, we aim at modelling accurately joint default events for credit assets. In order to achieve this goal, we build the loss distribution of the loan portfolio by Monte Carlo simulation. The times until default of each obligor in portfolio are simulated following a copula‐based approach. In particular, we study four different types of dependence structure for the credit assets in portfolio: the Gaussian copula, the Student's t‐copula, the grouped t‐copula and the Clayton n‐copula (or Cook–Johnson copula). Our aim is to assess the impact of each type of copula on the value of different portfolio risk measures, such as expected loss, maximum loss, credit value at risk and expected shortfall. In addition, we want to verify whether and how the optimal portfolio composition may change utilizing various types of copula for describing the default dependence structure. In order to optimize portfolio credit risk, we minimize the conditional value at risk, a risk measure both relevant and tractable, by solving a simple linear programming problem subject to the traditional constraints of balance, portfolio expected return and trading. The outcomes, in terms of optimal portfolio compositions, obtained assuming different default dependence structures are compared with each other. The solution of the risk minimization problem may suggest us how to restructure the inefficient loan portfolios in order to obtain their best risk/return profile. In the absence of a developed secondary market for loans, we may follow the investment strategies indicated by the solution vector by utilizing credit default swaps.     

Preferential Trade and Welfare with Differentiated Products

We consider analytically and numerically the welfare tradeoffs inherent in a preferential trade area (PTA) with products differentiated by region of origin. For a small open economy in such a setting, welfare gains are associated with higher trade volumes within the PTA. However, welfare losses are induced by declining tariff revenues on trade with non‐member countries. We show that both effects are concave, while one is a non‐monotonic and the other a potentially non‐monotonic function of pre‐PTA partner trade shares. Therefore, the relationship between initial partner import shares and direct static welfare impacts of a PTA are theoretically ambiguous. This finding contrasts with conventional results in the homogeneous‐goods case, whereby the smaller is the pre‐agreement trade volume with a potential partner the more beneficial is a PTA.     

Differentiated Products,Divided Industries: Firm Preferences over Trade Liberalization

The recent focus on firms in international trade suggests two conjectures about preferences over trade policy – only the most productive firms should support freer trade, and industries can be internally divided over reciprocal liberalization. This paper clarifies the content and scope of these claims. The most productive firms are generally not the greatest beneficiaries from trade liberalization and may oppose further liberalization due to increased competition in export markets from compatriot firms. Exporting industries will feature no support for trade if foreign competition is too strong or barriers too unequal. The key analytic factor generating intra‐industry division is product differentiation, both directly, by increasing export opportunities for less efficient firms, and by inducing home market effects wherein larger countries are more competitive. The implications of these findings for the distributional effects of liberalization and the study of trade politics are discussed.     

Trade Agreements and Trade Opportunities: A Flexible Approach for Modeling Australian Export and Import Elasticities

Patterns of trade have changed enormously over the last 30 years, particularly due to the economic emergence of several Asian countries. With the increasing international tendency for bilateral preferential trade agreements, it is important for countries to be aware of trade substitution possibilities. This paper estimates import and export price elasticities for Australia and its major trading partners in Europe and Asia, 1958 to 2002, using a fully flexible version of the Symmetric Normalized Quadratic aggregator function. Imports and exports are disaggregated into six regions, covering 17 countries. Our results illuminate the (changing) substitution and complementarity patterns for Australian foreign trade, highlighting trading opportunities in the face of a changing international environment.