信用衍生工具及其启示

信用衍生工具是一种可以用做分散、转移、对冲信用风险的金融创新产品。它在设计理念、交易规则和风险收益特性方面都与传统的衍生工具不同，这种新的衍生产品对我国信用风险管理具有多方面的启示。     

PRICING AND SEMIMARTINGALE REPRESENTATIONS OF VULNERABLE CONTINGENT CLAIMS IN REGIME‐SWITCHING MARKETS

Using a suitable change of probability measure, we obtain a Poisson series representation for the arbitrage‐free price process of vulnerable contingent claims in a regime‐switching market driven by an underlying continuous‐time Markov process. As a result of this representation, along with a short‐time asymptotic expansion of the claim's price process, we develop an efficient novel method for pricing claims whose payoffs may depend on the full path of the underlying Markov chain. The proposed approach is applied to price not only simple European claims such as defaultable bonds, but also a new type of path‐dependent claims that we term self‐decomposable, as well as the important class of vulnerable call and put options on a stock. We provide a detailed error analysis and illustrate the accuracy and computational complexity of our method on several market traded instruments, such as defaultable bond prices, barrier options, and vulnerable call options. Using again our Poisson series representation, we show differentiability in time of the predefault price function of European vulnerable claims, which enables us to rigorously deduce Feynman‐Ka? representations for the predefault pricing function and new semimartingale representations for the price process of the vulnerable claim under both risk‐neutral and objective probability measures.     

EQUILIBRIUM ASSET AND OPTION PRICING UNDER JUMP DIFFUSION

This paper develops an equilibrium asset and option pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion. The model provides analytical formulas for an equity premium and a more general pricing kernel that links the physical and risk‐neutral densities. The model explains the two empirical phenomena of the negative variance risk premium and implied volatility smirk if market crashes are expected. Model estimation with the S&P 500 index from 1985 to 2005 shows that jump size is indeed negative and the risk aversion coefficient has a reasonable value when taking the jump into account.     

Feeder Cattle Options: Where’s the Beef?

Feeder cattle is one of the most important commodities in the livestock industry worldwide. Nonetheless, beef production is subject to many uncertainties; therefore, the risk management tools that agents use must be efficient. This article discusses the financial options available in the Brazilian futures market to feeder cattle producers and describes the best risk pricing model to determine the option premium. Our results consider several option pricing models and different types of volatility. The best pricing is obtained with the model of Bjerksund and Stensland with the implied volatility.     

谈计算机网络安全防范技术

计算机网络技术的应用已渗透到各个领域,网络信息安全问题已成为人们的日常生活颇为关注的问题。针对目前存在着物理设备本身的故障、CP/IP协议的不足,系统、网络软件的漏洞,网络泄密、黑客攻击、病毒破坏等方面的威胁和困扰,必须不断完善计算机安全防范技术,身份认证技术、数据加密技术、防火墙技术、安全扫描技术、入侵检测技术,以确保网络信息安全运行。     

Derivatives pricing with liquidity risk

This paper develops a novel, general derivative pricing model which introduces a liquidity risk factor. The model variants we outline offer a sufficient degree of flexibility so as to enable the valuation of various types of derivative classes including futures, American options, and mortgage backed security options, whereas existing derivative models can only price liquidity risk in European derivatives. We validate the model with oil and gold futures data and compare it to a classical benchmark model void of any liquidity risk. We find that our model is significantly more accurate than the classical model for pricing both oil and gold contracts.     

On Feedback Effects from Hedging Derivatives

This paper proposes a new explanation for the smile and skewness effects in implied volatilities. Starting from a microeconomic equilibrium approach, we develop a diffusion model for stock prices explicitly incorporating the technical demand induced by hedging strategies. This leads to a stochastic volatility endogenously determined by agents' trading behavior. By using numerical methods for stochastic differential equations, we quantitatively substantiate the idea that option price distortions can be induced by feedback effects from hedging strategies.     

Jump variance risk: Evidence from option valuation and stock returns

We study jump variance risk by jointly examining both stock and option markets. We develop a GARCH option pricing model with jump variance dynamics and a nonmonotonic pricing kernel featuring jump variance risk premium. The model yields a closed-form option pricing formula and improves in fitting index options from 1996 to 2015. The model-implied jump variance risk premium has predictive power for future market returns. In the cross-section, heterogeneity in exposures to jump variance risk leads to a 6% difference in risk-adjusted returns annually.     

商业银行贷款组合的风险控制研究

商业银行经营管理的核心是收益与风险的权衡,对贷款进行组合多样化管理,可以达到分散风险的目的,而单项贷款违约模型的确定是贷款组合多样化的基础。本文基于期权模型讨论了商业银行的贷款组合问题,认为在商业银行贷款管理中引入期权概念,可以定量地利用成熟的期权理论进行分析研究,为多样化分析提供较为准确的量度方法。     

社会保障基金运行中的道德风险及防范

随着我国社会保障基金规模的扩大,在其运行中存在着的道德风险问题也日益凸显,主要表现为政府挤占挪用,保障机构违规操作,冒领、骗领社会保障基金等行为增多。为有效防范社保基金运行中的道德风险,应加速构建以自治为核心,监治为约束,法制为保障的高效风险的抗衡体系,以此遏止社会保障基金运行中道德风险的滋生与蔓延。     

论供应链的安全风险及防范措施

随着世界经济的全球化和一体化,企业的生存环境变得更加不确定,以致于供应链在运作过程中,面临着越来越多的安全风险。尤其是“9.11”事件之后,恐怖分子利用和破坏全球供应链已经成为一种新的威胁。本文分析了供应链的安全风险及其产生的原因和后果,提出了预防风险的对策,目的是规避风险及降低风险产生的损失。     

基于信用扩张的金融安全研究评述

本文认为,信用过度无序扩张导致金融系统不断积累风险直至最终爆发.信用扩张在金融风险扩大过程中起主导作用,银行信贷扩张可以通过多样的流动性效应使大量资金流向股市等虚拟经济领域,推动能源、原材料以及房地产等资产价格快速上涨.信用过快扩张会加剧我国经济、金融结构失衡,阻碍产业升级和经济增长方式的转变,最终影响经济与金融体系的安全及稳定.     

基于期权博弈理论的企业并购定价风险研究

并购能够为企业带来诸如规模经济、资源配置、组合协同效应。但是并购的各个环节都有风险,笔者由于定价不准确而导致的并购结果的不确定性,从而使主并企业蒙受损失的可能性定义为并购定价风险,用风险价值VaR来度量。利用期权博弈理论的思想与建模方法确定并购成交价格,在此基础上建立并购定价风险（VaR）的数学模型,并进行实证分析。     

Laguerre Series for Asian and Other Options

This paper has four goals: (a) relate ladder height distributions to option values; (b) show how Laguerre expansions may be used in the computation of densities, distribution functions, and option prices; (c) derive some new results on the integral of geometric Brownian motion over a finite interval; and (d) apply the preceding results to the determination of the distribution of the integral of geometric Brownian motion and the computation of Asian option values. The usual fixed‐strike options on the average are treated, as well as options with payoffs expressed in terms of one over the average of the underlying security, which this author calls “reciprocal Asian options.” In all cases the underlying asset is represented by geometric Brownian motion, the averages are performed continuously, and the options are of European type.     

安全与人口安全：概念的发展与讨论

回顾了不同历史时期安全的概念和发展变化,探讨了以政治和军事安全为中心的国家安全观和涉及经济、科技、生态、环境、资源、文化、公共卫生、人口等诸多领域的非传统安全观以及人类安全观。提出人口安全是安全观演进的结果,也是社会经济发展的需要;是一种非传统安全观,也是一种系统的大人口观和积极的人口观。     

网上银行的风险与防范

网上银行的出现给人类社会带来了深刻的变化,同时也带来许多新问题。随着网上银行业的发展,网上信息安全风险也随之而来。如:技术和产品选择风险、系统安全风险、技术支持风险等。控制和防范风险要从行业整体管理和企业具体技术安全两方面进行。     

Generic Existence and Robust Nonexistence of Numéraires in Finite Dimensional Securities Markets

A numéraire is a portfolio that, if prices and dividends are denominated in its units, admits an equivalent martingale measure that transforms all gains processes into martingales. We first supply a necessary and sufficient condition for the generic existence of numéraires in a finite dimensional setting. We then characterize the arbitrage‐free prices and dividends for which the absence of numéraires survives any small perturbation preserving no arbitrage. Finally, we identify the cases when any small, but otherwise arbitrary, perturbation of prices and dividends preserves either the existence of numéraires, or their nonexistence under no arbitrage.     

实施信息安全技术风险评估，预防网络与信息安全事件的发生

在网络信息时代,网络空间成为人们工作、学习、生活、交流信息不可缺失的平台。为有效预防黑客攻击,机密泄露,个人信息被窃取盗用,我们应该采取相应的预防措施,开展信息安全风险评估,对潜在威胁、薄弱环节、防护措施等进行分析,以预防、减少网络与信息安全事件的发生。避免造成危害。     

我国商业银行与骇客的博弈模型

运用博奕论方法分析了我国商业银行和骇客对银行网络安全系统进行攻击与防御的各种策略和行动方案，指出商业银行与骇客双方只有通过重复博弈建立起长期的博弈关系，才有可能消除商业银行的“不增加对系统安全性的投入”行为，建立起良好的商业银行注重网络系统安全性声誉，从而使整个社会网络安全得以实现。     

信用风险缓释工具对商业银行贷款定价之影响

本文基于我国上市公司的银行贷款数据,就信用风险缓释工具对商业银行贷款定价的影响进行了多视角的研究,发现只有抵押贷款和非抵押贷款的风险溢价间存在显著差异,且信用贷款和保证贷款的风险溢价显著小于抵押贷款。我国商业银行似乎对更高质量的风险缓释工具执行了较高的贷款利率,表明信用风险缓释工具在其贷款风险定价中未能得到应有的体现与反映。我国商业银行对抵押等工具的风险缓释作用的漠视,是与其特定的风险定价与激励机制有关;同时,基于供应链小企业融资中的过程控制等结构化设计等,讨论了如何降低抵押贷款风险溢价的方式和方法。