Foresight in science and technology

Emerging generic technologies seem set to make a revolutionary impact on the economy and society. However, success in developing such technologies depends upon advances in science. Confronted with increasing global economic competition, policy-makers and scientists are grappling with the problem of how to select the most promising research areas and emerging technologies on which to target resources and, hence, derive the greatest benefits. This paper analyzes the experiences of Japan, the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and the UK in using foresight to help in selecting and exploiting research that is likely to yield longer-term economic and social benefits. It puts forward a model of the foresight process for identifying research areas and technologies of strategic importance, and also analyzes why some foresight exercises have proved more successful than others. It concludes by drawing an analogy between models of innovation and foresight.     

Future issues of science and technology

The Millennium Project involved 237 scientists, futurists, and policymakers around the world in a two-round Delphi on the future issues of science and technology (S&T) over the next 25 years. This is the first of a 3-year study. The study began by asking science attaches to Washington, DC, what questions were worth asking to their leading scientists and issues that were important to explore on an international basis. A series of questions were identified and rated. Actions to address the questions were also suggested and rated. The results are presented in this paper with some regional differences discussed. The next year of the study interviewed S&T policymakers for the management and policy implications of these findings, and the third year developed scenarios based on these implications.     

Diversity and integration of science and technology policies

This paper discusses recent conceptual approaches to technical change, based on an emerging diversity of policies and increasing “institutional specialization” and clarification of the role of the private and public incentives to support S&T. This fact is reflected in the trend in developed economies towards increasing private investment in science and technology and we argue for the need to promote public policies in modern societies fostering competence building.This broad concept has motivated the work behind the present special issue, which was launched during the 6th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), hold in Monterey, Mexico, in the summer of 2003. Under the broad designation of “Connecting People, Ideas, and Resources across Communities” the Conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology, policy and management in a context much influenced by a dynamic of change and a necessary balance between the creation and diffusion of knowledge. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended and revised contributions to the Monterey conference that are largely grounded on empirical experiences of different regional and national contexts. The aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible views for emerging science and technology policies.     

2011年奥地利科技创新战略

2010年奥地利创新能力在欧盟27个国家中排在第7位.排行榜前5位的是瑞典、丹麦、芬兰、德国和英国,属于“创新领导者”;紧随其后的是“创新跟随者”,由10个国家组成,奥地利名列第2位.为了到2020年跻身欧盟的“创新领导者”,奥地利联邦政府于2011年3月正式出台了“科研、技术、创新”战略,提出到2020年将研发投入占国内生产总值的比例提高到3.76％,为此,着力从6个方面采取措施推进科技创新工作,并确定了电动汽车、智能制造、能源技术、人才等重点领域.     

IS model: A general model of forecasting and its applications in science and the economy

Expanding the work of Marchetti and Modis on Lotka-Volterra competition systems, a general model of Interaction Systems (IS) is introduced to describe the dynamics of multiple member interactions among different populations concerning not only biological systems but other types of systems as well. The new IS model provides us with a general framework of analysis and forecasting, where all parameters, variables, and interactions have real meaning, by using basic knowledge of each system.The proposed model can be applied to many different fields covering economic, business, social, physical, and other phenomena giving us both numerical estimates and qualitative insights of the system's dynamics. This is illustrated in two case studies. In the first case, the IS model is applied to elementary chemical reactions in order to quantify the reactions' kinetics. The result is the well known rate law of chemical reactions kinetics thus providing evidence of the proposed model's validity. In the second case, the IS model is applied to the global economy. The resulting model is tested against real global GDP data. The new IS model gave reliable estimates and proved to be considerably more accurate as compared to a similar forecast of global GDP based on the logistic growth model. Furthermore, the new model presented a basic framework of understanding the nature of major economic shifts, including the recent global recession of 2009, by studying the dynamic relationship between demand and supply.     

2011年法国科技发展现状

2011年,法国政府尽管面临经济危机、财政困难,但仍坚定不移执行国家创新发展战略,高举“科技创新、投资未来”旗帜,大力支持优先领域的发展.通过介绍基础科学、能源领域、航空航天、环境生态、农业和食品工业、医疗卫生、生物技术、信息技术等领域的创新举措和取得的成果,得出结论是:2011年是法国完成大学自治改革和科研机构调整的一年,是投资未来计划进入全面实施、科研创新蓬勃发展的一年.     

2011年俄罗斯科技发展综述

2011年多国金融危机仍在继续,并有可能进一步演化成债务危机,但由于国际原油价格持续高位,使得俄罗斯宏观经济形势得以进一步好转。前政府制定完成了《俄罗斯2020年创新发展战略》,从而开始实施2008年提出的经济增长模式及从原料出口型向创新型过渡的国家发展战略,以实现经济现代化。本文分析了俄罗斯的总体经济形势,介绍了俄罗斯2011年的国家科技投入、出台的重要科技政策以及重大科技成果,并对未来的发展趋势进行了简要的分析。     

2011年匈牙利科技发展概况

2011年,匈牙利仍深受欧洲主权债务危机的影响,经济下滑.政府推出了新经济发展计划,以图振兴经济发展.科技发展方面有不少令人鼓舞的消息:第五届世界科学论坛在布达佩斯召开;3名从事神经研究的匈牙利科学家获得欧洲大脑研究大奖.科学界强调基础研究的重要性,呼吁重视基础研究;政府采取了多种举措以促进科学研究的发展.最值得关注的是,匈牙利科学院的大规模改革与重组,新的科研体制将以杰出科学家及其研究团队为核心.在政府的经费支持下,匈矛利科学院的人才计划扩大了规模,并将适用范围进一步扩大到高校.     

2011年国际原子能机构科技新举措

2011年3月11日发生的日本福岛核事故,是继1979年美国三里岛核事故及1986年前苏联切尔诺贝利核事故后第三次重大的核事故.作为核能领域全球唯一的政府间国际组织——国际原子能机构,责无旁贷地采取了一系列应对举措,密切与国际社会的沟通,在检查和提高核能的安全性、强化国际核安全框架、恢复对核安全的信心、稳定核能发展势头等方面,表现出中心和主导作用.本文重点研究和分析了国际原子能机构2011年的科技新举措,特别是围绕日本福岛核事故展开的一系列响应行动,及其在加强核安全检查和评估、构建后福岛时代全球核安全框架、促进世界核能可持续发展等方面的努力.     

The structure and infrastructure of Mexico's science and technology

The structure and infrastructure of the Mexican technical literature was determined. A representative database of technical articles was extracted from the Science Citation Index for the year 2002, with each article containing at least one author with a Mexican address. Many different manual and statistical clustering methods were used to identify the structure of the technical literature (especially the science and technology core competencies). One of the pervasive technical topics identified from the clustering, thin films research, was analyzed further using bibliometrics, in order to identify the infrastructure of this technology.     

Institutional mobility and the management of technology and science

Using a theory which views scientzjc or technological innovation as generated from a re-synthesis of prevzously existzng knowledges and techniques—in general obtained zn various different institutional environments, both inside and outside the firm—policies are proposed for optimizing the mobility (and, hence, interactions) of the carriers of these knowledges and techniques.     

Institutional mobility and the management of technology and science

Using a theory which views scientzjc or technological innovation as generated from a re-synthesis of prevzously existzng knowledges and techniques—in general obtained zn various different institutional environments, both inside and outside the firm—policies are proposed for optimizing the mobility (and, hence, interactions) of the carriers of these knowledges and techniques.     

The Five-Year Outlook as metaphor for technology forecasting and social change

The National Science and Technology Policy Organization and Priorities Act of 1976, which mandated the Five-Year Outlook, is considered as a doctrine of anticipation to coalesce the federal bureaucracy in order to engage the future and to determine, as a community, its long-term priorities. The Outlook is thus a symbol of a broader process of managing technology to produce, over time, socially satisfactory outcomes that will not be squeezed out by short-term needs. The article argues that to transfer preparation of the Outlook back to OSTP would add immensely to the stature and influence of the report.     

Towards endogenous science and technology for another development

Basing his arguments on a historical survey of the development of science and technology, the author argues for the strengthening of the autonomous S and T capacity of the Third World and gives special attention to the need for a recovery and development of traditional technologies. Such a policy would call for a reorientation of production away from an imitative pattern of consumption that favors a great diversity of goods for higher-income groups, and thus requires a widespread importation of technologies. A different productive structure, based on the satisfaction of basic human needs and with greater emphasis on collective rather than individual consumption, could reduce substantially the need for imported technology and lead to an increased demand for local scientific and technological activities.     

A model for disruptive technology forecasting in strategic regional economic development

As regions look to increase their economic development activities, technology-based developments and the penchant for long-term developments in disruptive technologies like nanotechnology become an important part of the options available to these regions. There are typically many technologies and therefore product areas that the region, however, can further develop by investing resources in these areas. At the same time, other regions in the world are considering the same areas of great growth and potential financial and social returns. This paper proposes a model that analyzes several important factors that can lead to success in analyzing these factors promoting the idea that policy makers should analyze the situation from different perspectives to reach justifiable decisions. These factors include the research capabilities of the region, its commercialization and manufacturing capabilities and the markets on which they should focus. Several mathematical models are then presented to help in that endeavor.     

2011年哥斯达黎加科技发展

哥斯达黎加政府在出台的科技创新2011-2014国家计划中,确定了7个优先发展领域:地球和空间科学、纳米技术和新材料、生物技术、自然资本、健康(新生疾病)、可替代能源和数字技术.发布了《支持中小企业创新和技术开发计划》法令,作为提高中小企业竞争力的重要机制;其农业政策强调技术创新,与美洲国家区域政策相协调,创新和技术发展成为农业政策的基石;其国家信息通信技术基础设施得到增强,服务收费较往年为低.高科技产品出口名列拉美第一.     

A Litterman BVAR approach for production forecasting of technology industries

Forecasting the production of technology industries is important to entrepreneurs and governments, but usually suffers from market fluctuation and explosion. This paper aims to propose a Litterman Bayesian vector autoregression (LBVAR) model for production prediction based on the interaction of industrial clusters. Related industries within industrial clusters are included into the LBVAR model to provide more accurate predictions. The LBVAR model possesses the superiority of Bayesian statistics in small sample forecasting and holds the dynamic property of the vector autoregression (VAR) model. Two technology industries in Taiwan, the photonics industry and semiconductor industry are used to examine the LBVAR model using a rolling forecasting procedure. As a result, the LBVAR model was found to be capable of providing outstanding predictions for these two technology industries in comparison to the autoregression (AR) model and VAR model.     

日本科技体制改革的经验与启示

20世纪90年代初泡沫经济破灭以来,日本对其科技体制进行了系统改革,建立了凝聚企业、社会共识与加强一元化领导的决策机制,建立了各司其职又分工合作的创新模式.目前正努力建设以科学家为中心的科研体制.通过改革,实现了“日本式举国体制”与市场机制的有机结合.合理的机制带来了高效的创新,日本在各国激烈竞争的战略性科技领域名列前茅,成为维持其第二大发达国家地位的决定性因素.