能源价格变动对经济增长与通货膨胀的影响——基于我国1996～2005年间的数据分析

基于1996~2005年的时间序列数据,本文就中国能源价格变动对经济增长与通货膨胀的影响进行了实证研究。实证结果表明在中国实际GDP、能源价格以及通货膨胀之间存在着长期均衡关系;能源价格变动对经济增长短期呈现负向冲击,它引起的成本推动是本轮通货膨胀的主要原因。     

能源价格上涨对中国经济增长的影响

能源价格上涨对中国经济有很大影响。煤电油价格指数变动对国内生产总值和进出口贸易总额指数之间存在反相关关系,而对固定资产投资和消费者物价指数的影响不显著。为实现中国经济可持续发展,应加快建设节约型社会步伐,促进集约型经济发展,推进新能源研发及发展循环经济。     

The Impact of Chinese Economic Increase on Economy of Northeast Asia

Chinese economic total quantity has leaped to the sixth m the world because ot the tast development for nearly 30 years, and become the world economics powerful nation gradually. The Chinese economic growth has influenced tremendously on the world economic development. Being Chinese close neighbor, how has the Northeast Asia be influenced？ This paper will elaborate from the following three aspects： Chinese economic increase made China become important strength to promote the process of regional cooperation; Chinese economic increase made the pattern of Northeast Asian cooperation in economy and trade changed; competition and difference that Chinese economic increase brought to Northeast Asia. The increase of Chinese economic has positive influence on the economy of Northeast Asia, and is one of the powers causing the Northeast Asian economy to grow. At the same time, this kind of influence is mutual. In particular the economic cooperation with Japan is the key to establish the integration of the Northeast Asian economy.     

Price elasticities and tax reform in Mexico

Price responses are usually estimated for the average household. However, different households are unlikely to respond in a similar way to movement in prices. Consequently, relying on averages may be misleading when examining the behaviour of a particular group of households such as the poor. This article uses six household surveys collected in Mexico between 1989 and 2000 to derive price responses for 10 product groups and for five levels of income households. The estimated price elasticities are then fed into a micro simulation model to measure the effect of a marginal tax reform. The results find that that poorer households tend to react substantially more to movement in prices, suggesting the usefulness of estimating elasticities that reflect the behavioural responses of the poor rather than of the entire population. The micro simulation results indicate that reducing the taxes on maize, alcoholic beverages and vegetables would be both more equitable and more efficient in terms of social welfare. Meanwhile, a reduction in the tax on legumes, sugar, and oils and fats, while inefficient, would contribute to reduce inequality.     

油电涨价对福建经济增长影响的分析

近日,国家发改委宣布上调汽油、柴油价格1000元/吨,提高销售电价平均2.5分.油电价上涨对福建经济发展的影响利弊兼而有之.根据我们的测算,此次油电上涨通过直接和间接方式合计推动福建省PPI、CPI分别上升0.83和0.62个百分点,最终拉动物价总指数上升0.64个百分点,缩减GDP增量约70.06亿元.分产业看,此次油电涨价对农业发展的不利影响相对较小,对二、三产业经济发展的负面影响比较突出.最后,本文从推动经济发展方式转变,加强新能源开发利用等五个方面提出应对油电涨价的政策建议.     

Energy demand in the transportation sector of Mexico

This paper report results of an analysis of the demand for energy in the Mexican transport sectors, focusing on the railroad, air transport and motor vehicle modes. The approach is an econometric one with emphasis placed on the structure for each mode. For two of the modes a two-stage approach is employed where in the first stage demands for services from the particular mode are modeled, and in the second stage demand is treated as a derived demand from these transport services. For the motor vehicle mode, gasoline demand is considered as the product of gasoline consumption per vehicle times the total number of vehicles, and then these components are related to economic and structural variables. Diesel demand of motor vehicles is modeled in a more reduced from approach. The principal finding is that changes in income play a more important role in affecting energy demand than do changes in energy prices, especially in the railroad and air transport sectors. For the gasoline and diesel fuel demand in the monitor vehicle sector, however, price is of substantial importance.     

Economic prospects and policies in Mexico

This paper focuses on Mexico's possibilities in the world economy, especially in North America. Any successful policy must reorient Mexico's development away from oil and import substitution and toward exports. Proposed reforms would involve (1) devaluing the exchange rate and unifying the official and free-market exchange rates; (2) liberalizing imports by abolishing import restrictions, eliminating official import reference prices, and reducing those tariffs exceeding 40 percent; (3) reducing the existing bias against exports of the incentive system; and (4) limiting the public sector's influence in the economy by reducing the public sector deficit, liberalizing the financial sector, and denationalizing public firms outside basic industries.     

中国能源价格上涨对居民消费水平的影响——基于SVAR模型的研究

笔者运用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)脉冲响应函数及方差分解技术,考察了不同期限内我国能源价格上涨对居民消费水平的影响特征.研究结果显示,在整个冲击响应期间,能源价格的上涨均对居民消费水平有正向影响作用;居民消费水平的提高在短期对能源价格水平有正向冲击作用,在长期有负向冲击作用.另外,能源价格水平在短期主要受其自身水平的影响,居民消费水平在长期对能源价格水平有较大影响;居民消费水平短期内主要受其自身前期水平的影响,长期则受其自身与能源价格水平的共同影响.基于以上结论,在调控能源价格与制定居民消费政策时,应考虑二者之间的影响特征,以实现能源价格水平与居民消费水平的均衡发展.     

关于后金融危机时代粮价上涨的思考

金融危机时代,粮价飞涨,后金融危机时代,粮价依然居高不下,前者能用传统发散型蛛网模型理论解释,但后者却无法用传统理论分析。在市场自身机制调节外,非市场因素也会对粮价波动造成较大的影响,鉴于此,应该加强流动性监管以有效平抑粮价,提高农民种粮收益,鼓励种粮,多项举措促使农民卖粮,促进粮食市场的健康发展。     

关于经济增长与发展的几点看法

有人写文认为:“江苏经济有增长、无发展”。这不符合事实,在理论上也讲不通。因为增长与发展有联系又有区别。增长是发展的基础,没有增长就没有发展,发展也离不开增长;但是,增长要讲质效,并有利于提高人民生活,不能片面追求数量和总量的扩张。江苏经济增长快,并已注意提高质效、优化结构和富裕人民,当然,还有继续改进的余地,重在转变经济增长方式,提高技术含量并不断增加城乡居民收入,特别是使部分农民和失业下岗者得到实惠,共享发展成果,实现全面小康。     

能源价格对宏观经济的影响——基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)的分析

石油与煤炭价格上涨将对中国经济造成什么样的影响,其影响度与中国现阶段的经济特点的相关性,以及如何应对能源价格上涨的影响,都是政府宏观决策需要研究的重大问题。本文运用CGE方法研究了这些问题,尤其是对石油与煤炭价格上涨影响程度的对比,填补了这一方面的研究空白。结果表明:能源价格上涨对中国经济具有紧缩作用,但对不同产业的紧缩程度不一致,能源价格除了影响经济增长,还将推动产业结构变化。对大多数产业而言,相同比例的价格上涨,煤炭的紧缩作用是石油紧缩作用的2至3倍;对于非能源密集型的服务业紧缩幅度也达3倍,石油和煤炭的经济紧缩作用程度不一致与目前中国能源消费结构基本吻合,2007年中国煤炭消费占一次能源的70%,而石油消费仅占20%。本文最后就如何应对能源价格上涨的影响提出建议。     

影子价格在经济管理中的应用

利用线性规划有关理论和实例,讨论了影子价格在企业经济管理中的作用。进上步讨论了线性规划对偶问题有无穷多最优解时,如何理解影子价格。从而更好地利用影子价格为管理者决策提供数量化的方法。     

增长理论与经济发展道路的选择

自改革开放至今的二十多年中 ,中国经济通过一系列改革措施的实施 ,取得了举世瞩目的成就 ,同时也得到了世界的认可。然而 ,中国这种渐进式的改革如何进一步发挥其优势 ,再创奇迹 ,是对未来经济发展的一大挑战。本文通过对相关经济增长理论和中国目前经济发展困境的论述 ,比较了这些经济增长理论中技术进步对经济的巨大贡献及其对理论的指导作用 ,并结合中国的经济状况 ,推导出既能发挥中国劳动力资源的比较优势 ,又能发展高新技术的复合型经济发展道路 ,即将发展劳动力密集型产业和高新科技产业结合的协调发展之道路     

The Impact of a Marginal Cost Increase on Price and Quality: Theory and Evidence from Airline Market Strikes

This paper examines the impact of a marginal cost increase for one firm on price and quality in a duopoly market. The results are derived theoretically and then tested empirically. The marginal cost increase is interpreted as an increase in the wage one firm pays its workers. The predictions are tested with two United States airline strikes during the 1990's. Quality is proxied in three ways: (1) the number of flights per day, (2) the percentage of flights cancelled, and (3) the percentage of flights arriving late. The results show that the strike coefficients for the effects on quality are most consistent with theoretical predictions when quality is measured as the number of flights per day. These results are encouraging because of the three measures of quality, it seems that number of flights per day is the measure of quality that is most controllable by the .rm. The strike coefficients for the direct effect on price are most consistent with theoretical predictions when quality rankings are determined by the percentage of flights cancelled. The strike coefficients for the total effect on price are most consistent with theoretical predictions when quality rankings are determined by the percentage of flights arriving late.     

积极扩大就业 努力促进经济增长

下岗和失业不仅影响着我国经济的持续发展,而且还影响着我国社会的安定团结。从经济增长与就业增长的关系出发,对“创造”就业机会作了初步的探讨。     

我国经济增长与就业增长的悖论

从世界各国经济发展的历史看,一般经济增长与就业增加有着正相关的关系。中国经济20余年持续高速增长,1978年～2000年平均经济增长率达到9．52％,应该说,中国不会有失业问题。但从下表和图来看,我国经济增长与就业增加出现了不一致的情况,即就业增长弹性出现下降趋势,经济增长对就业的拉动受到了抑制。     

Educational Attainment and Regional Economic Performance in Mexico

A growing number of studies confirm the importance of educational attainment and human capital investment as a means for improving per capita income performance. In developing countries, attention to this linkage has primarily been carried out using national data aggregates. For relatively large countries such as Mexico, it is helpful to conduct similar analyses that document regional market income patterns. This paper utilizes 2000 census data for all 31 states and the Federal District in Mexico City to quantify regional income performance. Similar to other studies conducted using regional data in higher income economies, results confirm strong links between education and incomes across Mexico.     

价格补贴的经济效应分析

价格补贴又被称为"负税收",是由价格因素引起的国家财政的一种无偿性支出.实施价格补贴基于价值补偿、社会福利、经济干预等三方面的原因和目的,但它会扭曲价格体系,增大管制成本,增加财政支出.在运用价格补贴的过程中,从总量上要控制价格补贴占财政支出的比重,从用途上要将"好钢用在刀刃上",从对象上要符合WTO<补贴与反补贴措施协定>,从效果上要加强与其他经济、政治、技术措施的配套协同.     

The Price Impact of Lending Relationships

This study analyzes the impact of bank relationships on a firm's borrowing costs. We find that a firm's borrowing costs decrease with relationship strength, proxied by the share of bank debt provided by the lender. Borrowing costs, however, rise with relationship length. While the increase over time is weak on average, bank‐dependent borrowers face a substantial premium after several relationship years. Switching the lender initially leads to only a small price discount on average. However, the discount is considerable for borrowers that switch and had a strong relationship with their previous lender. Our results suggest that close lending relationships lead to benefits for the firm, but may also imply hold‐up costs in the long term.