Dutch Disease in Australia: Policy Options for a Three‐Speed Economy

‘Dutch Disease’ refers to the adverse effects through real exchange rate appreciation that the mining boom can have on various export‐ and import‐competing industries. The distinction is made between the booming sector (mining), the lagging sector (exports not part of the booming sector and import‐competing goods and services) and the non‐tradeable sector. What should the government do to reduce this Dutch ‘disease’? The principal options are: do nothing, piecemeal protectionism, moderate exchange rate effects by running a fiscal surplus, combined with lowering the interest rate, and possibly establishing a sovereign wealth fund. The costs of the latter measures may be considerable.     

Copyright reform and business model innovation: Regulatory propaganda at German music industry conferences

Inspired by new digital technologies, diverse actors in cultural and creative industries propagate conflicting visions of how to adequately innovate – or rather preserve and strictly enforce – copyright-related business models, which has resulted in substantial amounts of regulatory uncertainty. Looking at a decade of regulatory discourse at industry events in the popular music industry in Germany, we investigate how these actors make sense of and strategically shape this uncertainty in the process of industry transformation. Our longitudinal argumentative discourse analysis reveals cycles of regulatory propaganda of two discourse coalitions that do not engage in debate, but aim to find support for competing business models among regulators and the public. Organizing, canceling, and participating in industry events are discursive strategies used effectively to transport their claims by both industry lobbyists and challenging actors, but industry incumbents are failing to use these sites for testing out and introducing new business models. We conclude that regulatory struggles, not least at industry events, mediate between disruptive technologies and business model innovation.     

Prediction of volatility based on realized-GARCH-kernel-type models: Evidence from China and the U.S.

We propose three Realized-GARCH-Kernel-type models which do not make the distribution assumptions on the return disturbance terms. We use this type of model to predict the return volatilities of the 50ETF in China and the S&P500 index in the U.S. The semiparametric kernel density estimator of our models, which captures the skewness, asymmetry and fat-tail of financial assets, performs well both statistically and economically. Our models have more predictive power than other eight comparable volatility models that need to pre-specify the distribution of the disturbance terms. Our results are robust to eight measures of realized volatility. Using option straddle strategies, we show that our models generate larger trading profits and greater Sharpe ratios than the other competing models.     

Currency returns and downside risk: Debt,volatility, and the gap from benchmark values

The paper considers competing portfolio-balance specifications of currency returns, including one based on expected utility theory and another on prospect theory. The prospect theory specification relates downside risk to the gap between the exchange rate and its benchmark value. The empirical analysis uses survey data on exchange rate expectations to test directly the models’ predictions concerning ex ante excess returns. It also relies on the cointegrated VAR framework, which is well suited for testing competing models and dealing with unit roots. Like earlier studies, we find little support for the expected utility theory model in three major currency markets. By contrast, the prospect theory model’s predictions are largely borne out in the data, including those about sign reversals. We find the strongest support for a hybrid model that incorporates the risk factors of both models.     

Hysteresis in trade

The paper presents a model of hysteresis in trade which is based on the existence of sunk market-entry costs. The study concentrates on the aspect of two models. In both models an exchange rate overvaluation leads to additional entry by foreign firms. The models differ in their accounts of why the foreign firms do not exit after the exchange rate shock passes.     

Forecast performance of exchange rate models revisited

This paper re-evaluates the performance of reduced form exchange rate models by updating the Messe-Rogoff study (1983). This paper confirms earlier tests showing that simple monetary models do not perform well, but it finds more positive results for other monetary models that incorporate more dynamic econometric specifications. A simple error correction monetary model out-forecasts a random walk almost half of the time.     

Civil service reform,self‐selection,and bureaucratic performance

I use a formal model to analyze the effect of civil service protections on bureaucratic performance. In a two‐period model, a public manager observes a bureaucrat's actions for a period and decides whether to retain or attempt to remove the bureaucrat. Bureaucrats vary in terms of their intrinsic motivation and choose between careers in government or the private sector. I show that bureaucratic performance is greater in any separating equilibrium in which motivated bureaucrats choose government than in all equilibria in which they do not. Stronger civil service protections reduce the amount of effort that motivated bureaucrats must exert to distinguish themselves from their unmotivated peers in order to ensure retention. This strengthens incentives for motivated bureaucrats to choose careers in government. Stronger civil service protections, however, also reduce the ability of public managers to remove unmotivated bureaucrats. These competing effects yield a non‐monotonic and discontinuous relationship between civil service protections and bureaucratic performance. I use the model to analyze recent reforms to U.S. state and federal personnel management that have significantly rolled back traditional job protections.     

An analysis of self-employment subsidies with duration models

The determinants of continuity of subsidized self-employment activities are studied by means of duration models in Asturias (Spain). Variables related to socio-economic characteristics of the self-employed and to subsidized businesses are included in the models. Moreover, to consider the economic situation, the regional unemployment rate has been taken into account. A general survival analysis is complemented with a competing risk model that considers two types of exits from self-employment (failure versus other reasons). The significant variables that explain survival are age, industry, whether the business is the main source of family income or not and the unemployment rate.     

Trade Policy Platforms of Competing Parties: What Makes Them Different?

Theoretical voting models predict convergence of two parties' trade policy platforms. In contrast, real-world observations reveal substantial differences in the platforms of competing parties. This paper modifies the standard probabilistic voting model in a way that allows for divergence of policy platforms. Two parties are shown to adopt different policy platforms if the impact of trade policy choices on expected election outcomes depends on the specific identity of the policy-promising party; that is, if the chance to win depends not only on what trade policy is promised but also on which party does the promising.     

Competition vs. collaboration in the generation and adoption of a sequence of new technologies: a game theory approach

The study provides a game theoretic exploration of firms’ decisions on whether to compete or collaborate in the generation and adoption of a sequence of new technologies. Different from models proposed by previous studies, which concentrates on process innovation and a two-strategy set (innovation or do nothing), the present game theory model emphasises product innovation and a three-strategy set (innovation, collaboration, or do nothing). The study makes three contributions. The proposed game theory model extends current understanding of the impacts of collaboration possibilities and collaboration cost in a dynamic game theory. Further, the model clarifies the impact of transaction costs on the outcome. Finally, the study finds that the relationship between collaboration costs is not univariate, but depends on the market type and various market characteristics, such as technology gap, technology level, the product substitution index, transaction costs, and the discount rate of price sensitiveness.     

Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination

This article investigates the out-of-sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate determination. We compare standard linear models with models that characterize the relationship between exchange rate and the underlying fundamentals by nonlinear dynamics. Linear models tend to outperform at short forecast horizons especially when deviations from long-term equilibrium are small. In contrast, nonlinear models with more elaborate mean-reverting components dominate at longer horizons especially when deviations from long-term equilibrium are large. The results also suggest that combining different forecasting procedures generally produces more accurate forecasts than can be attained from a single model.     

Informal incentive labour contracts and product market competition

This paper studies the dynamic interaction between product market competition and incentives against shirking. In contrast with standard results, efficiency wages paid by each firm can decrease when competition (i.e. the number of firms in the product market) increases. Discretionary bonuses, on the other hand, do not vary with competition. There is an upper threshold for the number of competing firms, however, above which such schemes are no longer sustainable as an equilibrium. Industry profits with bonuses are generally higher than with efficiency wages but, when information regarding firms’ misbehaviour flows at a low rate, a competition range exists for which firms can make a positive profit by only paying efficiency wages.     

Testing economic models of volunteer labour supply: some empirical evidence for the German Red Cross

We use a new data set collected by means of a questionnaire study of volunteers of the German Red Cross to test predictions of three competing economic models of volunteer labour supply: the public-goods model, the private-consumption model and the human-capital model. The three competing economic models make different predictions regarding the response of a volunteer’s labour supply to a change in the perceived labour supply of other volunteers. Our empirical results lend support to the public-goods model.     

A Nonlinear Approach for Modeling and Forecasting US Business Cycles

The purpose of this paper is to provide a complete evaluation of four regime-switching models by checking their performance in detecting US business cycle turning points, in replicating US business cycle features and in forecasting US GDP growth rate. Both individual and combined forecasts are considered. Results indicate that while the Markov-switching model succeeded in replicating all the NBER peak and trough dates without an extra-cycle detection, it seems to be outperformed by the Bounce-back model in term of the delay time to a correct alarm. Concerning business cycle features characterization, none of the competing models dominates over all the features. The performance of the Markov-switching and bounce back models in detecting turning points was not translated into an improved business cycle feature characterization since they are outperformed by the Floor and Ceiling model. The forecast performance of the considered models varies across regimes and across forecast horizons. That is, the model performing best in an expansion period is not necessarily the same in a recession period and similarly for the forecast horizons. Finally, combining such individual forecasts generally leads to increased forecast accuracy especially for h=1.     

The arrival of the new

In this work we present a number of urn models in which, contrary to standard Pólya urns, the number of competing alternatives is not given from the outset but may increase with the arrival of innovations. We begin by describing a variant of Pólya urns, first introduced by Fred Hoppe, in which balls of previously non-existing colors are added with some (declining) probability. We then propose new variants in which the probability of the arrival of new colors is itself subject to adaptive change depending on the success of past innovations and discuss applications to evolutionary models of technologies and industries. We numerically simulate different specifications of these urns with adaptively changing mutation rate and show that they can account for complex patterns of evolution in which periods of exploration and innovation are followed by periods in which the dynamics of the system is driven by selection among a stable set of alternatives.     

Exchange rate models and exchange rate expectations: an empirical investigation

A non parametrictest of popular modern exchange rate models under alternative expectation specifications is presented. It is found that there is little difference in the predictive success of the alternative exchange rate models, however, there are significant differences in the performance of a model depending upon the expectations mechanism specified. Our most important finding is that the flexible price monetary model, the portfolio balance model and a hybrid model under extrapolative and adaptive expectations mechanisms provide statistically significant information about the direction of exchange rate movements. By contrast, the same models when employing static, regressive and rational expectation mechanisms do not provideany satistically significant information.     

Can Economists Forecast Exchange Rates? The Debate Re‐Visited: The Case of the USD/GBP Market

In the debate on forecasting exchange rates, critics claimed that traditional macroeconomic models could not outperform a random walk in post‐sample forecasts. Perceived deficiencies include inadequate allowance for simultaneity, and expectations hypotheses inconsistent with the structure of models employed. This paper re‐visits the debate, first to address critics' major concerns, and second because in the view of the present authors, the debate closed on an unduly pessimistic note. This paper develops a simultaneous, rational expectations model of the USD/GBP market, with functional relationships for hedgers, speculators and a spot rate equation. The model is estimated with data contemporaneous to the debate, including a period during which the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission did not collect data on traders' open positions. Using the results of post‐debate research on tests for stationarity with missing observations, the model, using only public information, outperforms a random walk in post‐sample forecasts of the spot rate. Recent microstructure models of the exchange rate based on order flow have re‐kindled the forecasting debate. The model developed here, however, is differentiated from these microstructure models, first because order flow utilises both public and private information, and second because the microstructure models do not directly address critics' concerns.     

Precious metals,oil and the exchange rate: contemporaneous spillovers

We investigate the contemporaneous spillovers among precious metals, crude oil and the US$ exchange rate. We contend that conventional reduced-form vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on lead/lag relations do not fully capture the interactions among these series as these models ignore the contemporaneous effects. Using a Structural VAR model, we identify these contemporaneous spillovers, which are shown to be strong and asymmetric. We further show that not taking into consideration the contemporaneous interactions among these assets leads to inaccurate findings and inevitably to inaccurate interpretations of the causal relations among them.     

Non-nested models of Australia's overseas aid program

After briefly surveying the existing on overseas aid motivations, some empirical results are presented for Australian bilateral aid in terms of the two competing theories in the aid literature, namely the recipient need model and the donor interest model. The empirical results for Austrlia are atypical in that there is support for both hypotheses. This is contrast to the results of previous studies of ‘large’ nation states, the United States, Britain, Germany, France and Japan, which have found support for the donor interst model but not the recipient need model. Given that the empirical results reported here are consistent with both models, this paper then proceeds to apply the relatively new tests of non-nested hypotheses to the models. The results indicate that Australia's aid program has both recipient need and donor interest concerns. I some years the recipient need motive dominates, and in other years, donor interest dominates.     

Understanding intertemporal choices

Previous experimental results show clearly that many subjects do not optimize when solving a life-cycle consumption problem. What do they do? This paper attempts to resolve this question, looking at the discounting, hyperbolic and rolling models as possible explanations. Data from two experiments (one an experiment with a typical subject pool and the second an experiment with subjects from the CentER panel) is used, and the advantage of having experimental data is exploited, which means that one can actually estimate the hyperbolic model. It is shown that the (exponential) discounting model appears to give the best explanation – suggesting that subjects do look ahead (as they should) but increasingly less as time passes (as they should not in the context of these experiments).