How do Migrants Choose Their Destination Country? An Analysis of Institutional Determinants

We analyze the effects of socio‐economic and institutional determinants, especially labor‐market institutions and features of social protection systems, on migrants’ location choices. Based on micro‐data for France, Germany, the UK, and the USA, we study migration to one of these four countries using a multinomial choice framework. Our estimates confirm conventional results regarding wages, networks, and unemployment rates. In addition, we find that there are indications of “insider–outsider effects” for union coverage and unemployment benefits, while employment protection does not have a clear‐cut impact on migration. Good education and health systems tend to attract migrants, while generous pension systems deter them.     

How much profit shifting do European banks do?

This paper studies whether and to what extent the largest and systemically relevant European multinational banks engage in profit shifting to lower their tax burden. We exploit unique data on bank operations reported on a country-by-country basis since 2015 in compliance with European legislation. The dataset contains information on profits, turnover, taxes paid and employment of bank affiliates worldwide, including tax and regulatory havens. In our empirical model, profits shifting incentives are captured through a weighted average of international tax rate differences between all countries where the bank is active. We find that international tax differences trigger the geographical distribution of profits within multinational banks, and that low tax jurisdictions, notably tax havens, attract disproportionately high profits. Our results suggest that, overall, 21% of profits is shifted. Moreover, profits in tax havens are 51% higher than they would be without tax-motivated profit shifting, pointing to a significant reduction of tax bases in high-tax countries.     

How do banks set interest rates?

This paper studies cross-sectional differences in banks interest rates. It adds to the literature in two ways. First, it analyzes systematically the micro and macroeconomic factors that influence the price-setting behaviour of banks. Second, by using banks’ prices (rather than quantities) it provides an alternative way of disentangling loan supply from loan demand shift in the “bank lending channel” literature. The results suggest that heterogeneity in the banking rates pass-through - depending on liquidity, capitalization and relationship lending - exists only in the short run.     

How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.     

How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?

This paper develops a theory of optimal fertility behavior under mortality shocks. In an OLG model, young adults determine their optimal fertility, labor supply and life-cycle consumption with both exogenous child and adult mortality risks. We show that a rise in adult mortality exerts an ambiguous effect on both net and total fertility in a general equilibrium framework, while child mortality shocks unambiguously lead to a rise in total fertility, leaving net fertility unchanged. We complement our theory with an empirical analysis using a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the 1980–2004 period, examining the overall effects of the child and adult mortality channels on both total and net fertility. We find child mortality to exert a robust, positive impact on total fertility but no impact on net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility. Given the particular demographic profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (killing essentially young, active adults), we then conclude in favor of an unambiguous negative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on net fertility in SSA.     

How do advertised brands benefit from private labels? An application of rational expectations models

Private labels have traditionally been viewed as a threat to advertised brands. Contrary to traditional wisdom, this study uses a two-asset rational expectations model to show that advertised brands could benefit from private labels. While the manufacturer’s advertising creates product differentiation, the retailer’s synchronous pricing strategy further enhances the product differentiation and raises profits as well as the efficiency of price discounts for the advertised brand. In addition, the existence of private labels improves the advertising efficiency, especially for newly introduced brands. The economic role of private labels is not limited to taking a free ride on the manufacturer’s advertising efforts, and this role cannot be replaced by another advertised brand.     

How do Heterogeneous Beliefs Influence Asset Volatility?

We investigate the influence of heterogeneous beliefs on asset volatility when agents' degrees of confidence differ. With a continuous‐time model subsuming agent's heterogeneous beliefs in the expected increase in dividends, a stock price formula is derived. Based on this formula, the stock volatility is computed via Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that the influence of belief heterogeneity in expectation on volatility depends on the confident agents' level of optimism. Empirical results are also provided.     

How do mutual recognition agreements influence trade?

This paper empirically tests how the magnitude of trade promotion effects of mutual recognition agreements (MRA s) varies with various mediums. The main rationale for the research is that because an MRA eliminates technical barriers to trade (TBT ), the trade promotion effects of MRA s are inversely much stronger if TBT originally restricted trade before their entry into force. Using data on MRA s and international trade in 34 countries and 22 manufacturing sectors covering 1995 to 2009, the paper empirically shows that the trade promotion effects of MRA s can be much stronger, depending on the type of contract, time period after the entry into force, components of exports, and country and industry characteristics such as technology level and global competitiveness. The results will provide insight for policy makers and stakeholders who cooperate with foreign countries in various regulations, especially in developing countries that have low levels of technology, competitiveness, and regulatory governance capacity.     

How do business startup modes affect economic growth?

This paper examines researchers’ choices between either collaborating with venture capitalists or going independent when investing in research (e.g., labs, scientists, equipment, perishable materials, etc.) and how their interaction affects long‐run growth in an economy characterized by incomplete contracts and financial market imperfections. We find that venture capital is more likely to be selected by entrepreneurs when startup risks are median to high. A ranking of the welfares associated with each startup mode under different legal and financial environments shows that economic policy and research incentives may not always align as entrepreneurs may not select the mode that provides the highest welfare level.