基础设施投资与经济增长的相关性分析

根据我国1996—2008年间的基础设施投资与GDP变动统计数据,计算出的相关系数和回归分析结果。表明GDP总量与基础设施投资总额之间的相关性较强。由此可以判断：我国今后2年4万亿元的投资对GDP增长产生巨大的拉动力。但1996—2008年间我国基础设施投资增长率与GDP增长率之间的相关系数和回归分析结果,则表明相关性较弱。其原因在于GDP增长率相对于投资增长率的滞后性、消费需求增速缓慢、出口需求锐减等方面。     

China Stimuli Package to Boost the Two ＂Pillar Industries＂

After China issued a RMB 4 trillion stimulus package, the central government and local governments sped up the formulation of plans related to the implementation of this big plan last November. On January 14, 2009, China＇s State Council unveiled plans for the auto and steel industry, put together by the National Development and Reform Commission in conjunction with other departments.     

Analysis of Energy Consumption in Beijing

1. Present characteristics of Beijing＇s energy consumption
1.1 The slowing of the growth in total energy consumption
In 2008. Beijing＇s total energy consumption reached 63.437 million tons of standard coal, an increase of 586.6 thousand tons compared with the previous year. The increasing range was 1%, dropping 5.45% compared with the previous year, as shown in Figure 1.     

人民币汇率与FDI关系的实证研究

本文运用协整关系分析和误差修正模型对1979—2008年度人民币双边实际汇率与美国、日本和欧盟对华直接投资的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:对美国而言,从长期来看,人民币对美元升值不仅不会导致中国FDI流入的减少,反而能够促进FDI流入的增加;对日本和欧盟而言,我国国内生产总值的增长率与其对华直接投资之间存在显著的正相关关系;对美、日和欧盟而言,我国的开放度和政策的稳定性对它们的对华直接投资均有显著的正面影响。     

人民币汇率对FDI的影响——基于VAR模型的动态分析

运用协整关系、误差修正模型实证研究了1980年～2009年人民币双边实际汇率对外商直接投资(以下简称FDI)流入的影响。研究结果表明:长期来看,人民币对美元升值不仅不会导致FDI流入的减少,反而能够促进FDI流入的增加;中国的开放度和政策稳定性使FDI流入呈现为显著的正向影响。     

Investment Guide to Shanghai

Shanghai plays an important role in China's social and economic development.With a population of 16 million,Shanghai contributes 1/12 of China's total industrial output value,1/6 of China's port cargo handling volume,1/4 of China's total exports and 1/8 of China's financial revenue.In 2007,Shanghai's GDP reached RMB 1.2 trillion (US$167.2 billion) up around 90 times over that of 1952 according to the comparable prices.     

人民币跨境流动自由度的测算——基于资本项目名义开放指数的借鉴

长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。     

Construction

Building Materials Sub-council of CCPIT is the other sub-council in construction field.CCPIT Building Materials Subcouncil（CCPITBM）,as well as CCOIC Building Materials Chamber of Commerce,is authorized by CCPIT and state administration of building materials industry in 1992.CCPITBM is a sub-organization of CCPIT and CCOIC. Meanwhile, it is a non-governmental organization for commercial trade and liaison with trade organization, chamber of commerce, association, and other economic group internationally in the field of building materials industry.     

Trade Performance： Highlights in the Crisis

On January 13, China Customs issued the annual profile of China＇s foreign trade, including import and export, in 2008. According to the Customs statistics, trade volume last year amounted to US$2.562 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 17.8%. In the total amount, value of US$1.42 trillion goes for China＇s export growth, 17.2% up, while the import takes up US$1.13 trillion, 18.5% up. The trade surplus stood at US$295.47 billion in 2008, increased by 12.5% year-on-year, with the net increase value ofUS$32.83 billion.     

中美贸易不平衡成因及相关分析

本文认为,中美经贸关系是中国进出口贸易的集中写照。起始于1994年的中国出口导向政策,最直接的结果是中国外汇储备近2万亿美元,这种高能货币基于乘数效应在国内市场上形成至少60万亿人民币的购买力,这是形成流动性泛滥的真正原因。经过金融危机冲击的中美贸易,预计仍然将呈现增长的趋势,中美贸易顺差大一点好还是小一点好,取决了市场结构性变化。本文指出,通过对以往中美贸易结构的梳理,对应对这次金融危机以及进一步发展中国的进出口贸易都是十分必要的。     

Loan Growth Slowing down in 1st 7 Months

The growth of loans significantly slowed during the first seven months of this year, which indicates the government's economic macro control measures are taking effect, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. By the end of July, outstanding loans of all financial institutions stood at RMB18.1 trillion (US$2.18 trillion),up 15.9% on a year-on-year basis. The growth rate compared to 23.2% registered during the same period in 2003,the central bank said.     

Developing Chinese Heavy Truck Industry

Strong economic recovery = Great opportunity in heavy trucks
Based on the four trillion investment expansionary fiscal policy and the loose monetary policy, China＇s economy is stimulated. Meanwhile, the CITIC Securities Research Dept. estimated that the economic growth will be better than expected in 2009 and 2010. Macro-economic expectations continue to improve and the fix-asset investment growth rate hit a new high level of the recent five years. Therefore, the heavy truck engineering vehicle and engineering machinery car market can benefit from them. From January to June this year, the national investment in new projects and the total investment of the construction project have respectively increased by 87% and 36%. Excavators, truck cranes, bulldozers, loaders and other Construction Machinery varieties have a significant rise in sales.     

人民币升值对跨国公司经营的影响

本文认为,人民币升值对跨国公司行为的影响主要表现在两个方面:一是对跨国公司生产、销售等经营行为的影响;二是对跨国公司对外直接投资的影响。对已经制定好全球经营战略的跨国公司来讲,人民币汇率变动不会对其战略部署带来太大影响,且人民币升值最初必然对国内企业走出国门进行跨国投资收购、生产经营产生积极影响,但一定要吸取日元升值后日本经济"迷失十年"的教训。     

Invest in Textile in Western China？

The thirteenth Investment ＆ Trade Forum for co-operation between East ＆ West China was held in Xi＇an, Shaanxi Province in April,2009. Under the upsurge of Western China Development, Shaanxi enjoys countless business opportunities and broad investment space.     

RMB Appreciation in 2008

At the beginning of 2007, both foreign investment banks and domestic commercial banks all thought that last year＇s RMB appreciation would grow between 4 to 5 percent; however the realization of a 6.77 percent increase has surprised everyone. The RMB has appreciated much faster than expected, keeping pace with the rise of China＇s foreign trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves.     

纺织服装——转型在即

国际市场需求疲弱在短期内难有改善,加之国内经济增长不利因素增多,中国纺织品服装的出口增速或将继续回落。2011年1-11月,规模以上纺织企业工业增加值同比增长10.5%,增速较上半年提高0.6个百分点;纺织行业工业增加值占全国比重为5.7%,较上半年提高0.1个百分点;产销率97.7%,较上半年提高0.1个百分点。行业整体运行良好。     

人民币汇率变动趋势及其影响

根据中国经济增长、国际收支状况和PPP理论,人民币汇率长期呈升值趋势。2005年7月,政府在恰当的时机选择实施了恰当的小步渐进式调整方案,短期内对投机外汇流入、对外贸易、引进外资和对外投资、国内物价和金融稳定产生一定的趋势性影响。     

自贸区玄机

19亿人口,6．5万亿美元国内GDP,4．5万亿美元年贸易额、世界上最大的自由贸易区,一切看起来都很诱人。2010年1月1日,中国-东盟自由贸易区全面落实,关于它的美好前景正在被期待。     

人民币升值预期与我国汇率制度改革

近几年来,我国经济持续快速发展,投资环境不断改善,外国直接投资持续增加。然而,西方主要国家经济长期持续低迷,对我国施加压力,要求人民币升值,形成了强烈的人民币升值预期。对此,我国将改革汇率制度,在完善人民币汇率形成机制的基础上,在均衡、合理的水平上保持人民币汇率的基本稳定。     

西石油巨额订单花落谁家

巴西抛出“大馅饼”谁能从中分杯羹 2009年1月23日．巴西国家石油公司披露了该公司未来5年的商业计划。根据该计划．2009年～2013年巴西国家石油公司将累计投资1744亿美元,年均投资约为350亿美元,其中1046亿美元用于上游勘探开发．434亿美元用于炼油等下游业务．118亿美元用于天然气开发和发电。与之前计划相比。此次商业计划的投资额增加了55％,其中约有80％的新增投资用于勘探开发。