利率全面开放时期的风险识别与防范

综观国际上实施利率市场化改革的经验和教训,不难看到虽然利率市场化是提高金融系统效率和效益的必要途径,然而它也将给该国的经济,金融系统带来许多严重的风险。我国目前正加紧利率市场化改革步伐,为使改革顺利进行,减轻负面影响,研究和探讨防范和管理利率市场时期的风险的方法和途径应是我们面临的迫切任务。本将利用保险理论中风险管理的思想,来分析,研究这类风险的管理与防范,希望能起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

开放经济条件下公司使用利率互换的动机

在开放经济条件下,以公司为背景,对利率互换的使用动机进行研究。给出了一个利率互换对利率风险控制作用的信息经济学解释,证明了利用利率互换,有利于公司利率风险暴露的降低,尤其是在债务融资时同时使用利率互换可以有效控制利率风险并减少融资成本。     

On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy

Contrary to the predictions of the theory underlying international finance, inflows of capital triggered by financial liberalisation have neither equalised real interest rates nor increased income growth in many emerging economies. We explain this puzzle by developing a model that combines the balance‐of‐payments constraint approach to economic growth with a less stringent version of the real interest rate parity hypothesis. The model’s foundations are based on robust empirical findings or well‐established macroeconomic models. We show that a perverse combination of income elasticities of demand for imports and exports generates slow income growth and high real interest rates. As domestic income grows and imports rise faster than exports, the real exchange rate is expected to depreciate in order to clear the balance of payments (or the foreign exchange rate market). An incipient capital outflow arises and interest rates increase. Faster adjustment in capital rather than in the goods market therefore generates a higher real interest rate differential between the domestic small open‐economy and the rest of the world. The long run analysis shows that a constant degree of risk aversion implies a positive equilibrium real interest rate differential that affects economic growth. A permanent increase in default risk driven by persistent current account imbalances thus impacts on long run growth. The model’s results are illustrated with evidence from the three major Latin America economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.     

Impact of interest rates on Islamic and conventional banks: the case of Turkey

Identifying the impact of the interest rates upon Islamic banks is a key to understand the contribution of such institutions to the financial stability, designing monetary policies and devising a proper risk management applicable to these institutions. This article analyses and investigates the impact of interest rate shock upon the deposits and loans held by the conventional and Islamic banks with particular reference to the period between December 2005 and July 2009 based on Vector Error Correction (VEC) methodology. It is theoretically expected that the Islamic banks, relying on interest-free banking, shall not be affected by the interest rates; however, in concurrence with the previous studies, the article finds that the Islamic banks in Turkey are visibly influenced by interest rates.     

论利率市场化下的利率互换功能与风险

随着一系列利率改革措施的颁布实施，我国利率市场化进程正在加速。我国已初步建立市场利率形成机制和市场利率体系。利率市场化催生利率互换，利率互换有利于规避利率风险、降低融资成本、资产负债管理和完善利率定价机制。但是，利率互换存在法律和政策风险、基础协议的效力风险、履约风险以及利率本身的风险。     

财险公司防范利率风险的策略研究

财险公司在防范利率风险时,需要采用对利率变动反应灵敏的策略。大多数的研究都不太重视这个问题,认为财险公司可以通过再保险安排来解决利率风险问题。本文利用期望效用理论证明了财险公司不能依靠再保险来防范利率风险。而后．通过一个算例直观地说明了利率变动与财险公司保费策略之问的关系．并结合我国的保险实践提出了解决方案。     

利率市场化与商业银行利率风险管理

我国商业银行资产负债结构比较单一 ,主要是存贷款业务而且两者不匹配 ,利率市场化后 ,可能给商业银行带来的利率风险有四类 ;我国商业银行应参照巴塞尔利率管理的核心原则 ,积极推进利率风险管理体系的建设。     

Interest rate risk estimation: a new duration-based approach

Duration is widely used by fixed income managers to proxy the interest rate risk of their assets and liabilities. However, it is well known that the convexity of the price-yield relationship introduces approximation errors that grow with changes in yield. In this article we suggest a new approach, ‘discrete duration’, which significantly improves upon the accuracy of traditional duration methods and achieves a level of accuracy close to the more complex ‘duration-plus-convexity’ measure. In particular, discrete duration performs particularly well for long dated and low coupon rate bonds where the estimation error is impressively close to zero.     

我国货币政策对股票市场流动性风险的影响——基于流动性波动性的风险测度方法

本文以流动性的波动性度量流动性风险,从货币供应量和利率两个方面,应用VAR模型首次研究了我国货币政策对股票市场流动性风险的影响。研究发现,货币供应量变化与流动性风险负相关,其中,M2变化对流动性风险影响最大,M1变化的影响次之,M0变化的影响最小;利率对流动性风险有正向影响,但影响力度小于货币供应量变化的影响。研究还发现,牛市状态下,货币供应量变化和利率对流动性风险的影响周期长于熊市状态,利率对流动性风险的影响力度明显大于熊市状态;但熊市状态下,货币供应量变化对流动性风险的影响力度相对较大,其中,M0变化对流动性风险的影响明显大于牛市状态。     

Interest rate reforms,financial deepening and economic growth in Tanzania: a dynamic linkage

In this paper we examine the dynamic relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania using two tests. In the first test, we examine the impact of interest rate reforms on financial deepening using a financial deepening model. In the second test, we examine whether the financial deepening, which results from interest rate reforms, Granger‐causes economic growth – using a trivariate model. The empirical findings of our results reveal that there is a significant positive relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania. However, the results fail to find any support for finance‐led growth.     

中国商业银行利率风险的实证分析

运用计量经济学方法估计中国商业银行资产和负债的平均成熟期,以检验中国商业银行的净利息收入是否受利率变动的影响。实证分析的主要结论是,目前中国商业银行的利率风险暴露水平较高,其中中等商业银行的利率风险暴露水平比大型商业银行更高。所以,大力加强利率风险管理体系的建设,提高利率风险管理水平是中国商业银行当前面临的迫切任务之一。     

我国商业银行利率风险及其管理研究

我国商业银行将面临越来越大的利率风险,从目前国内商业银行所处的金融环境出发,我国商业银行应从利率风险管理的流程、利率预测,利率风险度量技术和利率风险控制工具等方面控制利率风险.     

利率市场化对我国商业银行的挑战及应对策略

利率市场化是我国金融市场国际化非常重要的一步。利率市场化使中国银行业面临严峻考验。面对净利息收入减少、利率波动提高、银行竞争加剧、信用风险提高以及系统性风险加大,我国商业银行必须调整盈利结构,创新产品,拓宽利润增长点。     

利率市场化视角下的货币政策风险承担渠道问题研究*

利率市场化进程的深入可能会对我国货币政策传导、金融稳定等产生不可忽视的影响。基于此,本文研究了利率市场化对货币政策风险承担渠道的影响。结果表明：（1）我国存在货币政策风险承担渠道,且从利率市场化间接度量的维度来看,在考虑以直接效应来衡量的贷款利率市场化之后,银行的实际风险承担水平上升;但是在考虑以价格约束效应来衡量的存款利率市场化之后,其效果并不明显。（2）从利率市场化直接度量的方法来看,直接引入虚拟变量的研究发现贷款利率市场化会使得货币政策对银行风险承担水平的影响变得明显;进一步从利率市场化综合度量的维度,引入整体的利率市场化指数的方法则发现,随着利率市场化进程的深入,银行的实际风险承担水平会上升。（3）利率市场化对货币政策风险承担渠道的影响在不同类型银行间存在差异。     

运用久期模型进行利率风险管理的若干问题分析

利率的波动会给金融机构带来利率风险:重新定价风险和市场价值变动风险。传统的资产负债管理方法:缺口(gap)管理,只能解决前者而对后者无措。因而,后来理论界和业界并始广泛推崇和实行久期(duration)方法。久期充分考虑了与时间因素相关的现金流问题,可以同时兼顾利率变动对于收益和资本利得或损失的影响,从而实现利率免疫(interest immun ization)。巴塞尔委员会(2001年)推荐的监管银行利率风险的模型就是以久期模型为基础的。然而,也有些人认为该模型在金融机构资产负债管理中实际运用起来有种种困难,并对该模型提出了许多批评意见,本文将逐一分析这些问题及解决之道。     

Do interest rate controls work? Evidence from Kenya

This paper reviews the impact of interest rate controls in Kenya, introduced in September 2016. The intent of the controls was to reduce the cost of borrowing, expand access to credit, and increase the return on savings. However, we find that the law on interest rate controls has had the opposite effect of what was intended. Specifically, it has led to a collapse of credit to micro‐, small‐, and medium‐sized enterprises; shrinking of the loan book of the small banks; and reduced financial intermediation. Because of their adverse effects on bank lending, we estimate that the interest rate controls have reduced economic growth by ¼–¾ percentage points on an annual basis. We also show that interest rate caps reduced the signaling effects of monetary policy. These suggest that (1) the adverse effects could largely be avoided if the ceiling was high enough to facilitate lending to higher‐risk borrowers and (2) alternative policies could be preferable to address concerns about the high cost of credit.     

商业银行利率市场化风险分析——以5家股份制商业银行为例

利率升高和利率作不规则的波动是商业银行利率市场化的主要风险。本文用实证方法,选取了我国5家股份制商业银行,从资本充足率、资产负债率、利息收入占营业收入比率3个关键指标来分析商业银行的利率风险。分析表明,我国的商业银行处于高风险状态。本文最后指出了利率风险的防范和规避的途径。     

利率风险管理的重要免疫工具:持续期模型

利率市场化进程的加快凸现利率风险管理的重要性和迫切性.作为一种利率风险管理的重要免疫工具,持续期配比策略在近些年来有了较大发展.本文在深入探讨Macaulay持续期的三种重要含义的基础上,详细地分析和比较了近期提出的几种主要持续期即:方向持续期、 部分持续期和近似持续期,最后简单讨论了将这些持续期模型及其免疫策略用于中国市场应注意的问题.     

中国商业银行利率风险管理的约束与行为选择

中国商业银行为什么存在着利率风险管理的弱化?这种选择是否满足于商业银行在约束条件下最优的理性行为? 本文通过对中国商业银行利率风险管理的具体约束条件的分析,从成本收益角度,在理论上解释了中国商业银行行为的理性选择.     

Australian financial firms’ exposures to the level,slope, and curvature of the interest rate term structure

This study examines the risk exposure of Australian financial firms to changes in the term structure of interest rates. Non-linearity in the interest rate term structure is captured by the three-factor model of interest rate level, slope, and curvature. We observe that financial firms have negative exposures to the interest rate level, while non-financial firms have positive exposures. This finding suggests that financial firms need to hedge against rising interest rates, while non-financial firms need to hedge against falling interest rates. Small banks and insurance companies have a positive risk exposure to the slope factor, while real estate firms have a negative risk exposure to the curvature factor. Though the interest rate level is the most important factor, ignoring the slope and curvature factors could lead to underestimating a financial firm’s overall interest rate risk exposure. These findings are robust to controlling for the orthogonalized market return, time-varying equity risk premium, and the global financial crisis. This study offers practical tools to regulators, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority for assessing interest rate risk exposures of the financial and non-financial sectors.