International Outsourcing of Services: What Role for Central and East European Countries?

Central and East European countries (CEECs) that have recently acceded to the European Union are increasingly emerging on the map of global companies as possible locations for outsourcing services. Starting from the assumption of labor cost differentials in favor of the CEECs, the paper explores the CEECs' capacity and potential to supply outsourcable services to the EU-15. We analyze trends in trade flows and foreign direct investment in computer services and other business services. Although the available statistical data are deficient and excessively aggregated, the scattered evidence suggests that the CEECs are important suppliers of outsourcable services to the EU-15. Apart from labor cost differentials, other factors, such as the availability of skilled workforce as well as geographical and cultural proximity, might also contribute to EU-15 companies' preference for the CEECs when deciding on the location for international outsourcing of services. Increased specialization within the enlarged European Union could bring greater benefits from the international outsourcing of services, provided the European Union improves the functioning of labor markets and the competitiveness of the service sector, including the efficient implementation of the internal market for services.     

How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies

In this paper, we argue that banks anticipate short‐term market rates when setting interest rates on loans and deposits. In order to include anticipated rates in an empirical model, we use two methods to forecast market rates—a level, slope, curvature model, and a principal components model—before including them in a model of retail rate adjustment for four retail rates in four major euro area economies. Using both aggregate data and data from individual French banks, we find a significant role for forecasts of market rates in determining retail rates; alternative specifications with futures information yield comparable results.     

What determines the share of non-resident public debt ownership? Evidence from Euro Area countries

This paper provides, for the first time, a detailed picture of the composition of public debt by type of holder (foreign vs. domestic) and type of holding institution for a set of 7 Euro Area countries between 1991Q1 and 2015Q4. In addition, it empirically inspects the determinants of nonresident public debt ownership, accounting for both domestic and external factors and paying special attention to the global financial crisis period. Using a previously unexplored dataset and by means of panel and country-specific time series regressions, we find that improved fiscal positions, systemic stress and financial volatility, a strong business cycle position, all increase share of public debt held by non-residents. Also, a higher share of monetary and financial institutions cross-border holdings of sovereign debt issued by the other Euro Area countries was correlated with higher share of public debt held by non-residents. Finally, results are robust to outliers inspection and other sensitivity checks.     

International Stock Return Predictability: What Is the Role of the United States?

We investigate lead‐lag relationships among monthly country stock returns and identify a leading role for the United States: lagged U.S. returns significantly predict returns in numerous non‐U.S. industrialized countries, while lagged non‐U.S. returns display limited predictive ability with respect to U.S. returns. We estimate a news‐diffusion model, and the results indicate that return shocks arising in the United States are only fully reflected in equity prices outside of the United States with a lag, consistent with a gradual information diffusion explanation of the predictive power of lagged U.S. returns.     

Superannuation in Society: What are the Accountability Relationships and is there a Role for (Group) Accounting?

Superannuation fund reporting is a topical issue: it is in a state of flux and currently on the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) work program for 2012, with the release of ED 223 Superannuation Entities in December 2011. Issues under debate include uncertainty regarding the users of superannuation financial reports, and the application of the principle of ‘transaction neutrality’ to accounting for corporate groups by superannuation entities. Accountability reporting by superannuation funds has remained largely unchanged since the introduction of compulsory superannuation 20 years ago. This paper describes the changing nature of superannuation from a managerial gratuity to a type of deferred pay, and how accounting for superannuation is likely to increase in significance as it responds to the shifting economic nature of superannuation, especially since the global financial crisis. This paper uses basic content analysis to analyse member submissions to the Australian Government's Review into Governance, Efficiency, Structure and Operation of Australia's Superannuation System 2009, and submissions to the AASB's consultation paper on consolidation accounting for superannuation entities in 2007. Limited characterisations of members as being not interested in financial reporting are out of step with the underlying nature of superannuation, and will likely change as the economic significance of superannuation increases in the future.     

What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance

Using laboratory experiments, we provide evidence on three factors influencing trader performance: fluid intelligence, cognitive reflection, and theory of mind (ToM). Fluid intelligence provides traders with computational skills necessary to draw a statistical inference. Cognitive reflection helps traders avoid behavioral biases and thereby extract signals from market orders and update their prior beliefs accordingly. ToM describes the degree to which traders correctly assess the informational content of orders. We show that cognitive reflection and ToM are complementary because traders benefit from understanding signals’ quality only if they are capable of processing these signals.     

What Drives Fiscal Decentralisation? Further Assessing the Role of Income*

This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal decentralisation, focusing in particular on the impact of the level of income on the level of fiscal decentralisation. Various measures of fiscal decentralisation, several of them novel in this context, are employed in a cross‐country econometric model to test established and more recent hypotheses. Paying careful attention to variable measurement, model specification and sample coverage, the results suggest that there are significant relationships between fiscal decentralisation and income, as well as a range of other factors. However, these relationships may be more complicated than previously reported. For the entire large sample of countries, and for the OECD subsample, a positive relationship between income and decentralisation is found. This corroborates the results found in earlier studies. However, for the middle‐ and lower‐income nations, higher income is found to be associated with less decentralisation.     

Survey Under‐Coverage of Top Incomes and Estimation of Inequality: What is the Role of the UK's SPI Adjustment?

Survey under‐coverage of top incomes leads to bias in survey‐based estimates of overall income inequality. Using income tax record data in combination with survey data is a potential approach to address the problem; we consider here the UK's pioneering ‘SPI adjustment’ method that implements this idea. Since 1992, the principal income distribution series (reported annually in Households Below Average Income) has been based on household survey data in which the incomes of a small number of ‘very rich’ individuals are adjusted using information from ‘very rich’ individuals in personal income tax return data. We explain what the procedure involves, reveal the extent to which it addresses survey under‐coverage of top incomes and show how it affects estimates of overall income inequality. More generally, we assess whether the SPI adjustment is fit for purpose and consider whether variants of it could be employed by other countries.     

New development: What is the meaning of philosophy for local government officers?

This article reflects on how the philosophical foundations of public administration and the practice of local government can be linked together. Informed by Ongaro, E. (2017. Philosophy and public administration: An introduction. Edward Elgar), the relationship between philosophy and public administration is considered, followed by a discussion of what this means for local government. Virtue ethics and utilitarianism are applied to two current examples of local government practice. The article ends by detailing key points for the future relationship between philosophy and local government.     

Monetary Policy Stress in EMU: What Role for Fundamentals and Missed Forecasts?

This article reexamines the problem of monetary policy stress in the EMU. In addition to estimating the amount of stress in particular countries, we investigate its sources by breaking it down into its “fundamental” parts, covering how it is a result of country-specific macroeconomic divergences and the EMU-wide “non-fundamental” component, with special attention given to the role of missed forecasts. Our results confirm that peripheral countries were exposed to risks emerging from low interest rates while the “core” countries did not suffer from much monetary policy stress. Interestingly, the bulk of it was non-fundamental, i.e., not caused by inflation and output gap differentials between countries. We show that missed forecasts did make an important contribution to this part of the stress and were mainly responsible for pushing the interest rate below its rule-consistent level.     

Release of a liquidity regulation: What do we learn for credit and house prices?

This paper studies the effects of the release of a limit on banks’ maturity transformation – akin to the Net Stable Funding Ratio – for mortgage supply and house prices. After the regulatory easing, credit supply increased only for the banks that were previously constrained by the regulation and not for the others. We also show that the expansion in mortgages triggered by the deregulation accelerated house prices. The effect was channeled through higher demand for housing and the relaxation of borrowers’ financial constraints. Even though the impact of the credit supply shock persisted, the interaction between credit and house prices was not conducive to a housing market overheating.     

What drives the cost of US dollar bond funding for banks?

This paper decomposes issue spreads on US dollar-denominated bonds issued by LIBOR panel banks into credit risk and liquidity premium components. We attribute the recent increase in issue spreads to the investor perception that banks are less creditworthy than in the past. Although the behaviour of the credit risk component is well-explained by a structural model of default, this mechanism is nullified by the introduction of government guarantees. The behaviour of the liquidity premium component is partially explained by the bid/ask spread in the secondary market and issue size. Government guarantees also reduce the liquidity component of the issue spread.     

An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?

In this paper we study whether the commodity futures market predicts the commodity spot market. Using historical daily data on four commodities—oil, gold, platinum, and silver—we find that they do. We then show how investors can use this information on the futures market to devise trading strategies and make profits. In particular, dynamic trading strategies based on a mean–variance investor framework produce somewhat different results compared with those based on technical trading rules. Dynamic trading strategies suggest that all commodities are profitable and profits are dependent on structural breaks. The most recent global financial crisis marked a period in which commodity profits were the weakest.     

The Use of Noncourt‐Based Corporate Rescue: Does the Australian Voluntary Administration Procedure Provide a Model for China?

In the recent international history of insolvency law reform, the reform of corporate rescue and restructuring has been an ongoing project. In China, the enactment of the Enterprise Bankruptcy Law 2006 saw the introduction of a bankruptcy reorganisation procedure that incorporates the debtor‐in‐possession model found in Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code. However, the Chinese corporate rescue procedure has been significantly underused due in part to various drawbacks associated with this court‐based and highly politicalised process. This paper explores the possibility of reforming China's current corporate rescue regime by drawing upon the Australian voluntary administration procedure. Found in Part 5.3A of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), this procedure was designed to provide a relatively swift, inexpensive and flexible corporate rescue mechanism for companies in financial distress. It comprises a noncourt based mechanism under the control of one or more professionally qualified private administrators. It is interesting to note that the UK also moved away from exclusive reliance upon court‐based administration procedures following the passage of the Enterprise Act 2002. This moved the UK closer to the Australian practitioner‐dominated approach to corporate rescue. This paper argues that the addition of a voluntary administration‐style procedure to China's current corporate rescue regime may be needed as China develops its market economy based on the rule of law. Copyright © 2017 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Support for pension reforms: What is the role of financial literacy and pension knowledge?

Despite the relevance of the issue of pension system sustainability in most advanced economies, the factors associated with the opposition to pension reforms are still under-studied. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between financial, pension and institutional knowledge and support for pension reforms. Using an ad hoc module of the SHARE data for Italy, we find that financially literate and pension knowledgeable individuals are more willing to accept pension reforms. In particular, individuals with a basic level of pension knowledge recognize that population ageing, low economic growth, and low contributions by the young make the public pension system hardly sustainable.     

Business Cycle Synchronization of Turkey with the Eurozone and the United States: What Has Changed Since 2001?

Using wavelet methodology, we make a detailed spectral analysis of the business cycle synchronization of the Turkish economy with the eurozone and the United States. We take into account the dramatic change in the main economic indicators in the Turkish economy after the 2001 financial crisis. We find that the correlation of Turkish cycles with the cycles of the eurozone and the United States increased substantially after 2001. Moreover, the correlation of the Turkish cycles with the U.S. cycles is not lower than that with the euro cycles after 2001. Accordingly, analyzing the effect of international developments should not be confined to the trade channel. We submit that capital flows offer a reasonable explanation for the high correlation with the United States.