Forecasting broadband provision

The provision of broadband telecommunication services in the United States is spatially heterogeneous. Previous studies find that urban locales typically have a larger selection of access platforms and providers when compared to rural or remote areas. Therefore, the ability to forecast broadband provision is important to understanding regional trends in telecommunications competition and availability. This paper provides a comparative analysis of cross-sectional and spatial econometric forecasts of broadband provision, with results suggesting that the integration of spatially referenced demand-side variables significantly improve the accuracy of short and mid-range forecasts.     

Evidence of a modest price decline in US broadband services

In this paper, we construct a consumer price index for broadband services in the United States using over 1500 service contracts offered by DSL and cable providers from 2004 through 2009. This exercise frames a range of open questions about measuring price changes in a manner that informs policy discussions about US broadband services. We employ approaches used commonly for constructing a consumer price index by using a mix of matched-model methods and hedonic price index estimations to adjust for qualitative improvements. We find a quality-adjusted price decline, but the evidence points towards a modest decline at most. Our estimates of the price decline range from 3% to 10% in quality-adjusted terms for the 5-years period, which is faster than the BLS estimates for the last 3 years. In contrast to other innovative industries that experience rapid price declines, such as computers or integrated circuits, the modest price decline for broadband services raises many questions.     

罗尔斯公平观视角下的美国城市更新策略研究——以亚特兰大环线再开发为例

近年来,美国一些以城市更新为导向的大型景观项目因其巨大的规模和尺度、多元的利益相关方以及所产生的积极社会效应而受到广泛关注,如纽约高线公园、亚特兰大环线。这些景观项目除关注空间设计品质外,相较传统更新实践更加重视利益分配、社会参与以及景观服务可达性等社会公平议题。基于罗尔斯公平理论的视角,系统分析了以亚特兰大环线项目为代表的美国城市更新策略,重点探讨了程序正义、重叠共识、结果正义的实现方法和形式,以期对中国当下的城市更新提供参考与借鉴。     

Empirical study of broadband adoption using data from the 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey

Using 2009 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a study of factors that influence broadband adoption is conducted. The data set includes previously studied demographic factors, as well as records associated with the household’s use of computers, television, pay television services, and broadband. Analysis of the data indicate that, when controlling for a number of demographic factors, the purchase of television services is positively correlated with broadband adoption, with consumers who purchase either cable or satellite television service adopting broadband at a higher rate than those who utilize over-the-air television services. The results suggest that consumers who prefer over-the-air television services may face a more substantial hurdle in broadband adoption, one that might be lowered through the availability of affordable stand-alone broadband services.     

The Spatial Range of Public Goods Revealed Through Referendum Voting

Billions of dollars are now spent annually in the United States and Europe for spatially delineated environmental services such as agricultural landscape management and river restoration programs, yet little is known about the spatial distribution of the benefits from these policies. This paper develops a framework for recovering information on this question from the spatial pattern of votes cast for referenda on the provision of spatially delineated public goods. We specify a model linking voter support for environmental improvement to the distance at which such improvements are expected to occur. The empirical application is to a river restoration referendum in the Swiss canton of Bern. Our results indicate that the benefits from river restoration have a strong local component, sufficiently strong that voter approval would not occur if only canton-wide benefits were at stake. Surprisingly, support for river restoration is no greater, and in some specifications is actually lower, in locations where rivers are a prominent feature in the environment.     

Spatial contagion in the subprime crisis context: Adjusted correlation versus local correlation approaches

This paper investigates the influence of the spatial dimension on financial contagion in the subprime crisis based on adjusted and local correlation measures. Daily series of stock indexes of American and Asian countries are used from January 1, 2003, to December 30, 2011. We consider two groups of countries: the first group includes the United States and countries that are geographically close: Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Canada. The second group includes countries that are geographically distant from the United States: Hong Kong, India, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, China, and Singapore. The results show that simple and adjusted correlations are not enough to explain the spatial effect of contagion. Using local correlations and polynomial regressions, the results show the existence of spatial contagion between the United States and all countries in the American region. As for countries that are geographically distant from the United States, we prove the existence of spatial contagion between only some groups of countries (United States/India, United States/Australia, United States/Indonesia, United States/Malaysia, United States/China). These results have international diversification, and within-industry implications.     

Mind the Gap! International Comparisons of Productivity in Services and Goods Production

Abstract. In this paper, we make a comparison of industry output, inputs and productivity growth and levels between seven advanced economies (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States). Our industry-level growth accounts make use of input data on labour quantity (hours) and composition (schooling levels), and distinguish between six different types of capital assets (including three information and communication technology (ICT) assets). The comparisons of levels rely on industry-specific purchasing power parities (PPPs) for output and inputs, within a consistent input–output framework for the year 1997. Our results show that differences in productivity growth and levels can be mainly traced to market services, not to goods-producing industries. Part of the strong productivity growth in market services in Anglo-Saxon countries, such as in Australia and Canada, may be related to relatively low productivity levels compared with the United States. In contrast, services productivity levels in continental European countries were on par with the United States in 1997, but growth in Europe was much weaker since then. In terms of factor input use, the United States is very different from all other countries, mostly because of the more intensive use of ICT capital in the United States.     

A comparison of the spatial distribution of innovative activities in China and the U.S.

In order to enhance the independent innovation capability and help China to become an “innovation-oriented country” this article compares the spatial distribution of innovative activities between China (representing a typical developing country) and the United States. We also provide some recommendations for China and other developing countries to optimize the spatial distribution of their innovative activities. Using invention patents as an indicator gathered from the websites of the CSIPO and the USPTO, this paper compares the spatial distribution of innovative activity in China and the U.S. by methods such as rank-frequency, concentration and classification. The results show that the invention patents have experienced rapid growth and significant fluctuation in recent years in China, while the United States has been relatively stable. The spatial diversity of patent distribution in China is more obvious than in the United States. There is a concentrated trend of innovative activities in both China and the United States from the inland areas to the coastal regions.     

Vintage Effects In Human Capital: Europe Versus The United States

The standard assumption in growth accounting is that an hour worked by a worker of given type delivers a constant quantity of labor services over time. This assumption may be violated due to vintage effects, which were shown to be important in the United States since the early 1980s, leading to an underestimation of the growth of labor input (Bowlus anA1d Robinson, 2012). We apply their method for identifying vintage effects to a comparison between the United States and six European countries. We find that vintage effects led to increases of labor services per hour worked by high-skilled workers in the United States and United Kingdom and decreases in Continental European countries between 1995 and 2005. Rather than a productivity growth advantage of the US and UK, the primary difference with Continental European countries was human capital vintage effects instead.     

NEW EVIDENCE ON THE EXPANSION OF SERVICE EMPLOYMENT IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES

In this article the expansion of service sector employment is examined in detail in seven OECD countries, i.e. France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States, using a newly developed set of estimates for service employment. A sufficient degree of disaggregation, consistency and harmonization was attained by merging existing national sources on employment. The twenty two distinguished service activities are aggregated into four subsectors i.e. producer, distributive, personal and social services. The new evidence revealed that the characteristics of the expansion of services claimed by a number of studies needs adjustment, and for some services the figures of recent years indicate serious changes in trends. In the sixties the growing service employment share was largely due to the expansion of social services. In the seventies and eighties growth in social services slowed down and the expansion of producer services became more prominant. Further, employment growth in personal services started to accelerate in the seventies after substantial declines in the sixties. These changing trends were most pronounced in the United States, but other countries seem to be following the same pattern with some lag.     

Economies of scale for broadband in rural United States

Empirical cost models for wireline broadband circuits are used to test whether economies of scale exist in rural areas and whether new Ethernet technology lowers the unit cost of broadband transportation. Previous studies have shown small or nonexistent economies of scale for wireless technology. Results from earlier studies also demonstrated economies of scale for voice-only wireline networks which diminished with network size and were fully exploited for large networks. To our knowledge presence of economies of scale for wireline broadband networks has not been tested, certainly not in rural United States. We use data supplied by more than 500 rural local exchange carriers and find economies of scale for small rural wireline broadband providers. Market size limitations appear to prevent rural telephone companies from fully exploiting unit cost savings. The data also show increasing capacity over existing broadband connections is subject to substantial economies of scale, but such economies diminish quickly as bandwidth capacity increases. The data do not support the hypothesis that Ethernet technology reduces broadband transmission cost.     

Online sales, Internet use, file sharing, and the decline of retail music specialty stores

This paper uses phonebook records of music retailers in the United States for the years 1998 and 2002 to examine how Internet use, file sharing, and online sales of records have affected the entry and exit of brick and mortar music specialty retailers. By merging music store information with data on Internet activity and broadband connectedness at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level, with the number of broadband providers at the zip code level, and with a database of the location of universities, I analyze how online purchases, broadband, and Internet use affected the survival probability and the change in the number of music stores between 1998 and 2002. I further study whether the number of employees and chain membership affected the survival probability. I find that broadband connectedness increased the death rate of brick and mortar music stores and reduced their number. I also find that the presence of a university led to a reduction in the number of music specialty stores in the zip code.     

金融服务外包企业竞争力的动态演化模型的构建与优化

20世纪90年代以来,随着全球金融服务产业转移加速,国内金融行业的蓬勃发展,国际金融外包市场需求不断增加。面对印度的领先优势,中国金融外包企业只有明确认知自身的竞争力演化阶段,并采取相应的优化策略,才能够抓住当前发展机遇,改善竞争格局。服务外包企业竞争力动态演化模型是由坐标轴、竞争力演化曲线、竞争力演化四个阶段构成。针对不同的竞争力演进阶段,提出了竞争力演化的优化策略,并结合中国、印度、美国的金融外包实践,结果表明了该模型的正确性。     

The Long Run Growth and Productivity Performance of the United Kingdom

This paper examines Britain's long run growth and productivity performance since the late nineteenth century, taking an international comparative perspective and disaggregating by sector. Britain was richer than the United States and Germany in 1870 largely because of high levels of labour productivity in services and agriculture rather than in industry, together with a highly favourable structure, particularly a small share of the labour force in agriculture. By 1990, the productivity gap in manufacturing had not grown bigger. Rather, the deterioration in Britain's overall comparative labour productivity position has been concentrated in services and agriculture, together with the effects of structural change, particularly the later shift of labour out of agriculture in the United States and Germany.     

EFFECTS OF PRICE AND AVAILABILITY ON ABORTION DEMAND

Over 1.5 million legal abortions were performed in the United States in 1988. State-level regulation affecting the price or availability of abortion services may expand given recent Supreme Court decisions. This paper uses state-level data pooled over time to estimate abortion demand. Using single cross-sections of state data, past studies find abortion demand per 1,000 pregnancies to be price inelastic and find income elasticity to be positive and significant. The analysis here shows that price elasticity estimates in a single cross-section are sensitive to the choice of state characteristics used to control for "abortion attitudes" within a state. Ajixed-efects model design with pooled data gives more robust abortion demand price elasticity estimates. The results suggest that any new state regulations that increase the costs of obtaining abortions will reduce abortion use and increase unintended fertility .     

中美物流业的产业关联效应动态比较分析

基于中美1997、2002、2007年投入产出表和相关指标,比较分析了两国物流业与制造业、其他服务业的产业关联关系及其在不同经济发展阶段的动态变化特征.结果表明,由于目前我国尚处于工业化中期,我国物流业的发展对制造业具有较强的中间依赖,而美国已进入服务经济社会,物流业逐渐与其母体制造业分离,对其他服务业的依赖更强,且两国物流业与其他服务业的融合对产业价值创造贡献均更大;影响产业发展的因素中,产业自身的作用均占据主导地位,但对中国来说,物流业与制造业之间的互动效应也较大,而美国其他服务业与物流业之间互动更为显著.     

Trade liberalization in the presence of domestic regulations: public policies applied to EU and U.S. wine markets

Wine is the highest valued product in the agricultural, food, and beverage sector traded between the United States and the European Union (EU) and wine faces a range of tariffs that are differentiated by country and product category. In addition, the production of wine grapes is heavily regulated within the EU and there are complicated state-level policies in the United States designed to limit the retail availability of wine. There continues to be economic and political pressure for reform to the tariffs between the United States and the EU, and to the domestic regulations in each region. We carefully develop parameters to characterize the effects of tariffs and domestic regulations that affect production and consumption of wine in the two regions. Simulation results show that reductions in tariffs would have relatively small effects in EU and U.S. wine markets, whereas reductions in EU domestic policies that affect wine grape production would have much larger trade and welfare implications.     

美、英、日三国经济发达阶段服务业发展及其动因定量分析

通过投入产出法计量模型,对美国、英国、日本三国经济发达阶段服务业和生产者服务业发展,进行了历史数据的定量分析。分析表明,在所考察的期间内,服务业增加值占GDP比重随时间序列而不断提高;以服务业中间需求率为判据,虽然呈现出国别差异,但三国消费者服务业比重各年份均高于生产者服务业比重,服务业中间需求率最高未超过45%;生产者服务业增加值呈现出不断提高的趋势,但其提高幅度低于服务业增加值提高幅度。由此得出推论:进入经济发达阶段,三国服务业发展的主要动因不是生产者服务业的发展,而是最终消费者服务业的发展。     

中国对美“双重输出”格局及其新变化*

20世纪末以来，中美关系作为最重要的南北关系，很大程度上反映着世界格局的演进。客观上，中美分别作为产业资本第一大国和金融资本第一大国，其大国关系的实质乃中国对美“双重输出”：中国向美国输出廉价工业品和对美输出资本投资；美国向中国输出低成本资金和服务。双方因处于不同的发展阶段而形成战略上紧密的经济互补关系。但这一关系因2008年金融危机之后的中美“相向转型”--中国向金融资本经济升级，美国向实体产业回调--而渐进向互斥竞争转化。处于对立矛盾却难以对抗的中国客观上只能对内依次转嫁“输入型危机”所引发的制度成本，近期需要借生态文明和城乡统筹转向国家综合安全战略调整，使这种危机借助乡土社会实现软着陆。     

Models of labour services and estimates of total factor productivity

This article examines the manner in which labour services are modelled in the aggregate production function, concentrating on the relationship between numbers employed and average hours worked. It argues that numbers employed and hours worked are not perfect substitutes and that conventional estimates of total factor productivity which, by using total hours worked as the measure of labour services, assume they are perfect substitutes, will be biased when there are marked changes in average hours worked. The relevance of the theoretical argument is illustrated using data for the United States and the United Kingdom.