PROBLEMS IN EXPANDING JAPAN'S IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURES FROM DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: A SURVEY*

The Japanese economy is now the second largest market economy, with a large trade surplus. And yet, Japan's imports of manufactures have long been very low relative to its GNP, when compared with other industrial countries; its ratio of manufactured imports to GNP was in the range of 2.1–2.7% in the 1980-87 period, as compared with 8.5–10.3% for the industrial countries as a whole or 4.7-7.2% for the United States. The share of developing economies in total imports of manufactures in Japan is about the same as, if not higher than, those for most other industrial countries. If Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP were to rise in the future to approach closer to those of other industrial countries, Japan's imports of manufactures from developing economies could be two to three times what they are today, even if Japan's GNP does not increase at all and the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports does not increase. This paper is an attempt to probe the potential of the Japanese market for imports of manufactures from developing economies in terms of rising ratio of such imports to GNP. The paper explores the reasons why Japan's ratio is exceptionally low, on the basis of existing literature. (a) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP has remained exceptionally low compared with those for other industrial countries. (b) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports from developing economies to GNP has remained distinctly low despite the recent surge in such imports. (c) If a part of the reason for the low ratio for Japan was a market access problem as often alleged, the problem is not with formal import barriers such as tariffs and formal non-tariff barriers because these barriers in Japan are no higher than in other industrial countries. As for informal import barriers, evidence found indicates that: (i) Administrative guidance and flexibly managed competition policy, which in the past had considerable effects of limiting imports, appear to have declined-in importance, but they still have import-limiting effects in certain areas. (ii) Market access difficulties involving import procedures, product standards, testing and certification requirements, which were enormous in the past, may have also decreased in severity over the last decade, but problems in these areas persist. (iii) There are aspects of the Japanese distribution system and practice that seem to make foreign access to the Japanese market significantly more difficult than the access by Japanese exporters to the markets in other industrial countries. Distribution in Japan suffers from overregulation. (iv) Users of manufactured products in Japan are sensitive to quality, perhaps more so, on the average, than in other industrial countries. Does the recent upsurge in Japan's imports of manufactures suggest that the traditional import behavior of Japan is changing? Japan's manufactured imports measured in yen increased by 18 and 27 percent in 1987 and 1988, respectively, and those coming from developing economies increased even more rapidly. There is also some evidence that price and income elasticities of demand for manufactured imports may have increased recently. These are encouraging, but it remains to be seen whether the trends will continue far enough into the future to bring Japan's import behavior more into line with those of other industrial countries. If they do, implications for the market prospects of manufactured exports from developing economies could be far-reaching. Outstanding questions are: (i) How much of the recent increase in manufactured imports is attributable to the appreciation of the yen (price effect)? How much is attributable to the increase in income or industrial output (income effect)? How much is attributable to removal of formal and informal import barriers effected so far (structural change)? Has consumer taste changed? (ii) Why have Latin American countries not been successful in promoting their exports of manufactures to Japan, when Asian exporters have been so successful? (iii) Up until now, the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports has not been particularly low compared with those for other industrial countries, but is this share likely to fall or rise in the future? (iv) What is the likely impact of recently increased direct investment (DFI) by Japanese manufacturers in developing economies on the imports of their products into Japan?     

The Dynamics of Intra-industry Trade in ASEAN*

The decision to establish the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by the year 2008 has resulted in producers in all ASEAN countries except Singapore raising concerns relating to potential loss of market share and adjustment pressures. Underlying these concerns is the view that the expected growth in intra-ASEAN trade will be dominated by inter-industry or net trade (NT) rather than intra-industry trade (IIT). If most of the expected growth in trade is intra-industry, however, then the short-run resource re-allocation costs are likely to be lower. In this study, we employ a new methodology to analyse the dynamics of IIT in ASEAN. We overcome problems associated with using movements in the value of the Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index by deriving a formula that decomposes the growth in trade into the contributions of growth in IIT and NT. Our results suggest that the role of IIT in trade growth has been increasing in importance, and thus much of the recent concern that threatens the viability of AFTA may be misplaced.     

编织病媒生物防制大网

20世纪50年代中后期,一场被后人称作“人民战争”的“除四害”运动——消灭麻雀、老鼠、苍蝇、蚊子的全民爱国卫生“战斗”,给人们留下了深刻的印象.     

ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.     

An Evaluation of ASEAN Port Performance and Efficiency*

The overall objective of this paper is to evaluate the performance and efficiency of ASEAN ports. Specifically, it first identifies overseas ports similar to ASEAN ports in terms of nature and roles, port management policies, and infrastructure and operations, using the statistical technique of cluster analysis. Having identified the groupings of similar ports, the paper compares the ASEAN port performances and efficiency with their (similar) overseas counterparts. The results of the ‘like for like’comparison show that the ASEAN ports have achieved higher levels of efficiency in the utilization of cranes, berths and storage areas, with the port of Singapore as the top performer. However, they are generally less efficient in terms of timeliness, labour and tug utilization. Charges in ASEAN ports are also significantly higher than those of their (similar) overseas counterparts. Thus, we can say that, although the ASEAN ports are efficient from the port authorities’viewpoint, there is much scope for improving their services to port users, particularly in terms of timeliness and port charges.     

BRITISH IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURES AND THE COMMON MARKET

This paper assesses the impact of Britain's accession to theEEC on her imports of manufactures. It argues that account mustbe taken of the substitutability of imports for home production,and that price effects must be modelled consistently. It appliesDeaton and Muellbauer's "Almost Ideal Demand System" to annualdata on UK home sales and imports from ten sources. It identifiesconsiderable trade creation, but little or no trade diversion.     

100 YEARS OF TARIFF PROTECTION IN AUSTRALIA

This paper presents time series of tariff rates in Australia from the time of Federation. As a preliminary to the construction of economy-wide series, it constructs series for three broadly representative goods throughout the 100 years: passenger motor vehicles, blankets, and beer. It then constructs two economy-wide series, one for all imports and another for dutiable imports only. It discusses the main events relating to turning points in the series and concludes with some applications.     

EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

LONG-TERM CHANGES IN FOOD CONSUMPTION IN JAPAN*

The Japanese economy has shown a high rate of growth compared with European countries and America. Food consumption in Japan, however, has risen less rapidly than in these countries. The purpose of this paper is to explain the prewar rigidity in food consumption in Japan and to show how this has changed in the postwar period. The main factor in the rise of food consumption is usually the increase in per-capita income. Consumption of starchy foods generally decreases at certain levels of percapita income. In Japan, however, this level of income is lower than in other countries. While in the West the decline in demand for starchy foods has generally been due to the increased substitution of livestock products, in Japan this has been due mainly to low caloric consumption. Before the Second World War, starch intake in Japan remained fairly constant despite the rise in per-capita income. One reason for this rigidity is Japan's fondness for rice. In the postwar period, however, income elasticity for food and drink has doubled and livestock products have become more important, thus raising total caloric intake. This shift in food consumption, however, has caused problems for food production and agricultural incomes.