AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALISATION AND THE URUGUAY ROUND*

With the Punta del Este Declaration, agriculture was accorded prominence in the GATT negotiations and, for the first time, national support policies were on the agenda. In this paper, the progress of the negotiations on agriculture is reviewed in an attempt to understand the factors which shaped the final outcome and to assess the likely impact of the round on liberalising agricultural trade. Although the immediate impact is likely to be modest, the round will provide longer term benefits to agricultural trade through the extension of the GATT rules-based system to agriculture. The framework which has been laid should provide a sound basis for future negotiations. Within the multilateral framework, the pace of change is a function of the willingness of all parties to compromise and this is evident in the Uruguay Round's outcome which reflects the European Union's agricultural reform agenda.     

WORLD AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND MERCHANDISING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE 1970s*

"There is going to be a continuing great need for food." In a wide review of Canadian and world markets, the author makes a case for an opportunity-oriented agriculture, geared to the developing and changing market potentials of the 1970s. Canadian and world market potentials for the 1970s present attractive prospects, but the future will only be as bright as agriculture and its institutions are flexible to adapt to the emerging environment.
LES POSSIBILITÉS DE DÉVELOPPEMENT DU COMMERCE MONDIAL AGRICOLE AU COURS DE LA PROCHAINE DÉCENNIE –"Il y a un besoin croissant de biens alimentaires." Au cours ďune large revue des marchés canadiens et mondiaux, ľauteur étudie les chances ďune agriculture orientée, axée sur le développement et le changement des marchés pour les années 1970. Les possibilités de développement des marchés canadiens et mondiaux au cours de la prochaine décennie apparaissent favorables, à condition toutefois que ľagriculture et ses institutions s'adaptent au nouvel environnement.     

LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE

A dynamic, stochastic, multi-commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial-country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax-payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non-agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non-farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural-exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

REBALANCING EC CEREALS PROTECTION AND THE GATT URUGUAY ROUND

This paper considers the proposals put forward by the EC at the GATT Uruguay Round in December 1990. The EC's objective of rebalancing the Common Agricultural Policy in the context of a partial liberalisation of agricultural support on the world cereals market is assessed, as is the choice of base year from which liberalisation would have been initiated. The US's proposal for more significant reduction in agricultural support is also considered. The results show that the EC would not necessarily have benefited from rebalancing, since the effects would have depended on the choice of base period. For example, with 1986 (1988) as the base year, net welfare changes would have been 20 (50) percent higher (lower) with rebalancing, relative to the case without. Not surprisingly, the more substantial liberalisation proposed by the US would have resulted in greater net welfare gains even if rebalancing was conceded by the US.     

A POST-KENNEDY ROUND LOOK AT SOME PROBLEMS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE

The Kennedy Round, concluded in 1967, ws the most far-reaching in the series of trade negotiations. The United States insisted on the inclusion of agricultural products, with the support of other foodexporting countries. The results for agriculture should not be underestimated. The agreement on cereals gave practical recognition of joint responsibility in food aid. There were also many agricultural tariff concessions. However, it is domestic agricultural policies, not tariffs, which really hamper agricultural trade. The cost of these policies and the extent to which they achieve their objectives are questionable. Competition becomes fiercer for the remaining accessible markets, and export subsidies multiply. The Kennedy Round left the basis problems untouched. It did, however, strengthen the “global” or comprehensive, multilateral approach.     

TECHNICAL CHANGE AND EC-US AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALISATION

The paper aims to investigate the biases produced by assessing the effects of partial liberalisation of EC and US farm policies through comparative-static simulations, when a more adequate approach would require time, or more precisely technical change, to be explicitly accounted for. Three points are underlined: taking into account technical change (i) alters the trade-off between farm income and budgetary expenditures, (ii) has different effects according to the policy instruments used, and (iii) may reverse the sign of cross-effects, particularly on the budget, in the case of large price-support reductions which result in trade reversal. The relatively limited fall in farm income losses in scenarios corresponding to full harmonisation makes the associated support-price cuts more acceptable, both politically and socially.     

TRADE AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF EC ACCESSION ON THE UK AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY INDUSTRIES

The aim of this paper is to assess the effects of accession to the EC on the UK agricultural input industries using a technique commonly applied to examining the effects of accession on the manufacturing sector, the main emphasis being on trade patterns. Some attempt is made to differentiate between the effects of market-widening and of the CAP, and an assessment of the welfare implications is given. The results indicate that the effect of market-widening on the input industries was more important than the effect of the CAP and that the net loss of trade diversion was slightly outweighed by the benefits of export expansion     

PREFERENCE PATTERNS IN THE WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE

This article assesses preference patterns in the world's coarse grains market in order to separate those areas in which there exist potentials for changing market shares from the areas in which bilateral or related arrangements are well established. The model offers a basis for evaluating Canadian trade efforts, and for suggesting future trade possibilities. Applied to feedgrains, the conclusions suggest Canadian feedgrain sales have in general been below expected levels, with the only areas of strength being irregular sales to China and Japan plus preferential treatment in the British market.
LES TENDANCES DU MARCHÉ MONDIAL DES GRAINS DE PRO-VENDE – Cet article met en évidence les principales tendances du marché mondial des grains de provende en distinguant les marchés pour lesquel il existe de fortes portentialités de ceux qui sont déjà figés par des accords bilatéraux et des arrangements divers. Le modèle, en outre, offre une base ďanalyse permettant de mesurer ľeffort commercial canadien el suggère quelques possibilités concernant ľavenir. Appliqué au commerce des grains, les conclusions soulignent que les ventes ont été en règie générale au-dessous des prévisions, exception faite des ventes irrégulières réalisées en Chine et au Japon et de celles dues au traitement préférentiel sur le marché britannique.     

1998年世界渔业产量和贸易综述

本文主要对1998年世界渔业生产和贸易状况进行了分析研究。     

AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND MCA's: A SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how some aspects of agrimonetary system of the Common Agricultural Policy may be analysed using spatial equilibrium diagrams, modified to include foreign exchange sectors. The model analyses the effects of monetary compensatory amounts on intra-Community trade. The results are: first, when the intervention price is below the market price, both the importing and the exporting country gain in social welfare; and second, when the intervention price is effective, only the importing country gains. In each case the cost of the MCA's exceeds these welfare gains. From a budgetary viewpoint there is a trade-off between the cost of intervention buying and the cost of the trade subsidy.     

世界海洋渔业贸易竞争力分析

进入21世纪,世界海洋渔业贸易迅猛发展。发达国家和发展中国家的海洋渔业的出口量和出口额都成线性增长。发达国家的主要海洋渔业进口国集中在美国、日本、德国,发展中国家的主要海洋渔业进口国集中在中国、尼日利亚。利用国际贸易理论中的国际市场占有率(IMS)、显示性比较优势指数(RCA)、比较优势指数法(CAI)、出口渗透率(ERP)四个指标,对世界海洋渔业出口竞争力进行分析后可发现,海洋渔业产业化、集聚优势和增强产业内贸易有利于提升世界海洋渔业竞争力。     

ON THE NEGLECT OF DYNAMICS,RISK AND MARKET INSULATION IN THE ANALYSIS OF URUGUAY ROUND FOOD TRADE REFORMS*

The substantial investment in models of international food markets prior to and during the Uruguay Round of international trade negotiations has been a mixed blessing so far as the prospects for reform are concerned. At worst, results from these models have misled the negotiations because they have most often ignored a primary concern lending domestic political support to food market interventions, namely the avoidance of risks borne of dependence on international markets. In this paper the reasons for market insulating policies are reviewed and their links with protection elucidated. Some errors that have stemmed from the application of 'standard' but inappropriate models are noted. Finally, the implications of extending the standard method to include dynamic behaviour and market insulating policies are examined.