SYMPOSIUM ON PROJECT APPRAISAL IN LESSER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: NUFFIELD COLLEGE RESEARCH ON PROJECT ANALYSIS IN AGRICULTURE

This paper discusses the O.E.C.D. Manual of Industrial Project Analysis for Developing Countries by Professor Mirrlees and myself, and the extension to agriculture of its guidelines for project evaluation, a subject now being explored at Nuffield College. Since the principles of cost-benefit analysis are very general, the question arises as to why it was restricted, in the O.E.C.D. Title at least, to developing countries and to industrial projects.     

耕地保护政策的分析与设计——基于公共物品管理视角

耕地具有公共物品的属性特征,耕地保护类似于公共物品管理。在公共物品管理视角下,对耕地保护的基本目的、成本-收益和供给-需求进行了深入分析,进而对我国耕地保护的主要目标、基本策略和政策体系进行了优化设计。研究结论:耕地保护在性质上属于公共物品管理的范畴;耕地保护政策的制定和实施应以目的分析、成本-收益分析、供给-需求分析为基础和依据;我国耕地保护应在目标和策略方面实现转变,系统地构建包括指标控制、利用管制、税费、公共投资、调查监测等政策在内的耕地(农地)保护政策体系。     

基于成本效益分析的地膜回收政策研究——以甘肃省景泰县为例

[目的]地膜是农业生产的重要物质资料之一,但地膜残留却极易造成严重的环境外部性影响。需提出合适的政策选择,协调农业短期经营行为与农业可持续发展的矛盾,纠正市场失灵。[方法]遵循成本效益原则,构建地膜回收的成本效益分析框架。基于地膜使用、回收的私人成本和私人收益,判断农户的行为逻辑;基于地膜使用、回收的社会成本和社会收益,提出政府的策略选择。[结果]在甘肃景泰的案例中,短期经营主体追求个人利益最大化,最优选择是保持更低的地膜捡拾率。政府代表长期经营者的利益,最优选择是引导农户到达更高的地膜捡拾率。当前,景泰5元/kg的残膜回收价格对短期经营主体产生的激励作用较为有限。[结论]地膜残留属环境外部性问题,问题的解决依赖于政府干预。政策手段的选择,应根据管理对象的不同有所差异,考虑政策的执行成本、可行性和公平性。建议政府依据"污染者付费原则",强化对规模较大的短期经营主体的行政约束;向分散小农户提供地膜捡拾方面的公共服务。     

基于农户的竹林经营模式及成本收益分析——以浙江省为例

以浙江省2个"竹子之乡"安吉和临安为案例点,通过227户农户的调查,总结分析了农户现有的竹林经营模式及其成本收益。结果表明,笋用林经营和材用林经营是浙江目前主要的竹林经营模式,笋材两用林经营目前尚处于试点阶段;笋用林经营的经济效益相对较高,材用林经营相对较低;另外,劳动力成本是3种竹林经营模式面临的共同问题,为此需要更加重视相关技术和林道等基础设施建设。     

ON RISK DEDUCTIONS IN PUBLIC PROJECT APPRAISAL

Project appraisal under uncertainty should, in general, be worked in terms of carefully computed expected or mean values of uncertain elements. The major exceptions are when: (a) project returns are large relative to national income; or (b) project returns are highly correlated with other national income. Approximate procedures have been developed for computing risk adjustments in each of these special cases singly, but here, a more comprehensive procedure is described that encompasses both cases separately and jointly.     

森林认证在中国推广的可行性分析

文章研究了森林认证在中国推广的可行性。通过对市场需求、成本-效益比较、政策支持和风险等几方面进行分析,得出结论:森林认证在中国推广是非常可行的,这是中国林业可持续性发展的需要,也是中国林业经济与世界接轨的需要。在分析时,采用了论述加数据支持以及对比的方法,得出森林认证在中国推广的具有必要性和可行性,同时又对森林认证在我国推广中应注意的一些问题进行讨论,希望能够给我国的森林认证工作顺利开展提供一定参考。     

城市绿地的经济效益分析与评价

通过环境经济学原理,分析了城市绿地的经济效益可计量性,并开展城市绿地生态效益和社会效益的货币化计量分析,提出城市绿地经济价值评价和成本—效益分析是辅助决策的重要手段。     

PROJECT IMPACT MONITORING: A MISNOMER

The overall record of monitoring and evaluation activities relating to agricultural and rural development projects has been unimpressive. In taking stock of the situation, particular attention must focus on the relevance and place of impact assessment activities. It is suggested that disqualification of the notion, as well as future references to, terms such as impact monitoring, would be beneficial. Whilst certain analytical studies concurrent with project imple-mentation would be necessary, these should not be tantamount to impact evaluation, which has its own time and place. Towards greater clarity on this aspect, a redefinition of the current evaluation terminology is called for. Finally, a number of neglected areas essential for improving monitoring's role in project management are reviewed.     

基于潜力阻力模型的城市建设用地生态适宜性评价——以兰州榆中县为例

为了评估城市土地用作建设用地的生态适宜程度,识别可用于进行城市建设的土地资源和生态敏感、脆弱、必须重点保护的区域,以兰州榆中县为例,借鉴环境经济学中的损益分析原理,引用潜力-阻力分析方法,将评价要素分为生态潜力和生态阻力两大类,通过取大原则和成对明智比较法分别确定权重,进行城市建设用地生态适宜性评价,并根据适应性等级将研究区划分为禁建区、限建区、适建区。从保护城市生态环境的角度为城市的土地利用提出建议,为城市规划提供有益尝试和补充。     

LAND USE STUDIES IN BRITAIN: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO APPLICATIONS OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS*

Since the ending of World War II increasing attention has been paid in Britain to the need for the formulation of a coherent land use planning strategy. Public control over land use has strengthened and interest in the conceptual and practical problems involved has grown to a sufficient extent to have generated a significant body of literature. This article begins with a short account of the land use planning process, considers the state of land use statistics and outlines the results of work by a number of writers on projections of land requirements in various uses notably for agriculture, forestry and urban expansion. Against this background attention then focuses on the use of cost-benefit analysis as a means of resolving conflicts in land allocation, particularly those which centre on agricultural use as against urban expansion, and agriculture versus forestry development. A further section considers the application of cost-benefit methods in research on recreational uses of land. The paper is designed primarily as a critical survey of the present state of knowledge, though it also indicates areas of study in which the expertise of the agricultural economist might be particularly useful.     

试论灌区改造工程国民经济评价中的费用和效益计算方法

结合江苏省苏北地区某灌区改造工程实际，探讨国民经济评价中费用和效益的计算方法。阐述灌区改造工程费用和效益计算的步骤和方法，指出计算灌区改造工程国民经济评价中费用和效益时应注意的问题。     

基于环境经济效益的旅游开发区投资决策分析

旅游业在给人们带来丰厚收益的同时,也对环境产生不利影响。旅游开发区内的环境经济效益,是旅游业生存和发展的基础。环境经济效益分析中影响因素较多,基于旅游资源开发主体——水域的环境脆弱性,运用环境经济学、技术经济学、现代数学等有关理论和方法,以某旅游开发区为实例,说明费用——效益分析方法在评价水域旅游开发区环境经济效益的有效性。     

基于DEA模型的我国淡水养殖生产效率实证研究

通过运用DEA模型,以年份为决策单元,对我国2000～2007年淡水养殖生产投人和产出数据进行了实证分析,并且衡量和比较了我国淡水养殖的综合效率、技术效率和规模效率。结果表明,我国淡水养殖生产效率总体低下,非DEA有效单元的表现既有投入要素的不合理,又有产出结构不合理的原因。在2001～2003年,表现为物质费用投入过多和成本收益率产出不足;在2005～2007年,表现为劳动力投入过剩和成本收益率产出不足。文章又通过投影对非DEA有效单元进行分析,提出了相应的建议和措施。     

脆弱性分析和制图系统在中国扶贫项目的应用

介绍了联合国世界粮食计划署在选择粮食援助项目受援地区和人群时,采用的脆弱性分析和制图系统（Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping）及其在中国扶贫项目区选择中的应用,特别是在确定了项目县后,通过脆弱性分析,进一步进行了项目乡镇的选择,对于提高扶贫资源的效率、扶助最需要帮助的人群起到了重要的作用。     

Courts and contract enforcement in transition agriculture: theory and evidence from Poland

The paper investigates theoretically and empirically the role of courts for contract enforcement in transition agriculture. In a survey of 306 Polish farmers conducted in 1999, only 38.5% respondents reported to believe that they could use courts to enforce contracts with their most important customer. Furthermore, those who believed the legal system could be used would accept significant financial losses before taking action. We develop a theoretical model, based on the costs and benefits of court enforcement, which captures the boundary between contracts to be regarded as 'enforceable' and 'not-enforceable' and, simultaneously, the threshold of taking legal action. The empirical analysis strongly supports our model: (1) the farmers' responses can be explained by cost-benefit calculations regarding the use of courts, (2) the legal 'enforceability' of contracts depends not only on the efficiency of the legal system but also on the attributes of the transaction, the contracts and the relationship between buyer and seller and (3) the threshold of taking legal action is significantly influenced by indirect costs of court enforcement, such as the disruption of a valuable business relationship, and by the availability of alternative enforcement mechanisms.     

A territorial approach to assess the transition to trellis vineyards in special protection areas for steppe birds in Spain

Traditional vineyards in Spain are being upgraded to trellis vineyards. A key question is to what extent the transition to trellis vineyards is compatible with the environmental preservation goals in Special Protection Areas. This paper presents a GIS-based model to assess the suitability of Special Protection Areas for the development of trellis systems. The model was applied in a Special Protection Area for steppe birds in Castilla-La Mancha, Spain, a region with the largest concentration of vineyards in the world. The model includes three components: (1) a vineyard structure analysis, (2) an analysis of habitat fragmentation, and (3) a suitability analysis. The results showed that 50.9% of the study area, including 82.1% of the existing vineyards, was classified as suitable for transition to trellis systems. In the remaining unsuitable areas an increase in trellis systems should be avoided. The model is a stepping stone for improving the sustainable land use development of Mediterranean agricultural landscapes. Further research is needed to include wider socio-economic and environmental consequences of modernizing viticulture practices.     

江苏区域经济差异实证分析

以人均GDP为测度指标衡量江苏区域经济差异,通过比较三大区域和县域经济的差异情况,发现江苏区域差异基本体现在三大区域差异,进入21世纪以来差异更加明显。以分形理论为基础,预测江苏区域经济差异未来发展趋势,旨在强调继续深入贯彻区域协调发展策略,尽可能缩小区域差异。     

Farmers' Acceptance of the Organic Certification System in Germany: A Partial Least Squares Model

The institutional framework of the certification scheme is a crucial factor in the future success of the organic market. Increasing complexity and a couple of scandals indicate that current control structures might be insufficient. A better understanding of farmers' attitudes is necessary to increase acceptance and to guarantee the longer term success of the organic certification system. By means of a conceptual framework based on the technology acceptance model, an investigation was conducted into acceptance of the organic certification system in Germany. The empirical basis of the study was a survey conducted among organic farmers in Germany. Partial least squares was used as a multivariate analysis technique to estimate the parameters of the proposed causal model. The findings indicate that the majority of farmers accept the present organic certification system but are not convinced of its cost-benefit relationship.     

Costs and benefits of forest conservation: regional and local comparisons in Eastern Finland

In addition to environmental interests vs. timber production, debates on forest conservation have typically dealt with nationwide vs. local and regional interests. While most previous studies have focused on the nationwide perspective, this paper considers the benefits and costs of existing conservation areas from the regional and local point of view. The non-market benefits of conservation are measured by means of contingent valuation. Unlike most discrete-choice CV studies, we allow for zero willingness to pay. The results of our cost-benefit analysis suggest that the aggregate benefits of conservation clearly exceed the total opportunity costs when viewed from a regional (or nationwide) perspective, but at the local level costs exceed the benefits of conservation. Differences were also found in locally vs. regionally relevant benefits and costs.     

生态循环农业的发展模式及利益联结研究——基于河南省漯河市的案例分析

[目的]生态循环农业是我国农业发展的重要方向,探索有效的生态循环农业发展模式及其利益联结机制意义重大。[方法]在对河南省漯河市生态循环农业实地调研的基础上,综合运用成本收益方法、博弈论等方法进行分析与研究。[结果]在模式构建上,提出农业企业是生态循环农业发展的关键主体,构建了以农业企业为核心力量的企业内部自循环、企业间链条循环和区域内大循环等3种生态循环农业发展模式,归纳了各模式的运行特点及适用场合。在利益联结机制上,阐明企业内自循环取决于循环与不循环两种方式成本的比较情况;企业间链条循环模式稳态存在的实质是各个独立企业和政府之间的博弈过程,各方在满足各自经济利益和环境目标需求下形成一种均衡状态,这是企业间链条持续循环存在的基础;区域内大循环既要遵从企业内自循环和企业间链条循环的基本条件,更要从区域的总体要求出发,通过规模经济、范围经济、网络经济、产业扩散效应等获得更大的效益。[结论]研究认为在发展生态循环农业中要重视农业企业的作用,培养农业企业的生态意识、循环经济意识,通过系统化措施鼓励、引导企业采用适合自身实际的生态循环发展模式,并在参与主体间形成长期、稳定的利益联结机制,推动生态循环农业持续健康发展。