Econometric forecasting of European community policy impacts on the Scottish cereals and dairy sectors

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric model of the Scottish cereals and dairy sectors. The model was used to analyse the effects of the proposed “MacSharry” Reforms on production and prices in the two sectors. This was done by comparing two ex‐ante forecasts, the first of which assumed that the policies of the proposed “MacSharry” Reforms take place and the second that the policy instruments included in the model remained unchanged from their 1992 values. The results suggested that under the “MacSharry” Reforms cereal production would fall by approximately 8%, cerealprices wouldfallby approximately 11.2%, milk production would fall by 2%, while milk prices would increase by just under 2% as compared with a no change policy.     

The Impact of FDI on CO2 Emissions in Latin America

This paper uses panel Granger causality tests to study the relationship between sector-specific foreign direct investment (FDI) and CO₂ emissions. Using a sample of 18 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2007, we find causality running from FDI in pollution-intensive industries (“the dirty sector”) to CO₂ emissions per capita. This result is robust to controlling for other factors associated with CO₂ emissions and using the ratio of CO₂ emissions to GDP. For other sectors, we find no robust evidence that FDI causes CO₂ emissions.     

The incremental construction land differentiated management framework: the perspective of land quota trading in China

Construction land plays a vanguard role in China’s rapid urbanization process. However, confront with massive loss of farmland resources, the highly centralized land-use planning and management system established by the central government in 1998 stipulates that the red line of 1.8 billion mu of farmland should be guarantee to ensure food security. A series of land management system innovations such as “the replacement of basic farmland in different places”, “the compensated supplement of farmland in different places”, and “the land conversion quotas transregional transaction” in Zhejiang province have received increasing attention, under the premise that neither dissipating the economic development efficiency nor breaking the constraints of various planning quotas. Inspired by the “three-phase” efficiency improvement based on the concept known as the “adaptive efficiency”, this article first proposes the inherent policy shortcomings as incalculability, inseparability, and uncontrollability. Then, adopting the mathematical model derivation and economic analysis tool, we demonstrate that the “general allocation + competition allocation + rewarded allocation” of new construction land quota allocation scheme has improved the three-stage Pareto efficiency. Relying on the network analysis of the cross-regional trading in Zhejiang province, the “time hotspot”, “regional hotspot”, Siphon effect, price fluctuation and inequality of opportunity are also observed in the process of trading. The authorities should play a quasi “wedge-like” blocking role in due course. It is therefore suggested that a differentiated management scheme should be adopted considering the variance in regional resource endowments and social ecosystem. This paper expected to shed light on improving construction land-use efficiency for China and other similarly placed developing countries.     

Can soil-less crop production be a sustainable option for soil conservation and future agriculture?

Agriculture faces huge challenges regarding sustainable use of soils and its sustainability performance in general. There are three different approaches to sustainable agricultural production commonly proposed, namely intensification, agro-ecological approaches and high-tech industrial approaches. Often, some propose that only agro-ecological approaches are truly sustainable options, with particular benefits for soil protection, while others argue that intensification or high-tech performs better through land sparing. In this viewpoint, we scrutinize the notion of “sustainable agricultural production” and the role these approaches may play for such, in particular addressing the controversy of “naturalness” versus “artificiality” in production systems. Consumers often perceive agriculture as “natural”, but agriculture today thrives always on strong human intervention. We posit that agriculture is linked to soils and natural processes, but that this provides little guidance on what sustainable agriculture should be. Being “natural” need not be an aspect of being sustainable. If it is, arguments for this need to be provided. Furthermore, revealed consumer preferences may much less frequently posit being “natural” as a central criterion for food consumed than usually assumed. By all this, we do not want to promote any of those three approaches uncritically. We rather argue for enlarging the option space for sustainable agriculture in an unprejudiced way.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade

Agricultural market distortions remain a major focus of contention in world trade negotiations. Estimates of the effects of liberalising current agricultural trade restrictions indicate an approximately $385 billion increase in global welfare, with the disproportionate share of the benefit being enjoyed by developing countries. In response to difficulties in adopting agricultural trade reforms, individual groups of countries have formed multiple bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) to enhance trade among members. Few sectoral analyses exist of the effects on agricultural and food product trade of PTAs. This research uses a gravity model to isolate the effects of various PTAs on both intra‐ and extra‐bloc agricultural and food product trade for three time periods: 1995, 2000 and 2004. Findings strongly support PTA benefits in terms of increased intra‐bloc trade in both sectors. The findings also generally support trade creation in agricultural products. PTA membership was also associated with food trade creation in most cases, although diversion was observed for several associations composed primarily of developing countries.     

Tribals,Forests and Resource Conflicts in Kerala,India: The Status Quo of Policy Change

One of the constraints in policy analysis of tribal issues in India has been the lack of analytical approaches that have looked at the existential problem of tribal communities in an integrated manner. While restrictive forest policies have played a major role in fomenting tribal unrest in India and other parts of the world, the part played by “poorly designed” development programmes in creating the impasse cannot be ignored. With reference to the District of Wayanad in north Kerala, India, it is argued that natural resource conflicts involving tribal communities have their roots in both restrictive forest policies and misplaced development strategies. While it is true that, in recent times, there has been a serious effort in India to open forests to tribal communities, this has not been accompanied by a change in basic development thinking. It is argued that, for a paradigm change in policy to occur, tribal communities need to be nurtured in forest settings. This is particularly relevant at this juncture, when the ideal of “biodiversity conservation” is considered to be the defining mark of sustainable development in the “natural resource-rich” countries of the South.     

Supply-Driven Input-Output Multipliers

The paper raises and discusses issues related to the derivation, behaviour and characteristics of input-output multipliers where the exogenous changes are not assumed in elements of final demand but in total outputs of sectors and commodities. These multipliers are more appropriate for use in impact analysis of policies which influence farm outputs, than the traditional final demand multipliers. The paper estimates also such “supply-driven” multipliers for 16 farm commodities of US agriculture. The empirical analysis shows that despite the variability in the multipliers' values, two rather solid groups of commodities which feel the strongest impacts of different crop and livestock output changes respectively, can be found. Several commodities are common to both groups, verifying also the significance of some indirect linkages between farm and non-farm commodities. However, the final demand sectors absorb the largest part of the initial exogenous change itself.     

对中国天然橡胶产业补贴的博弈分析

加入WTO后,中国减少征收天然橡胶进口关税,为此中国天然橡胶产业将面临进口胶的巨大冲击:中国天然橡胶的比较优势较弱,进口贸易依存度逐年增加。本研究通过建立博弈模型来分析政府对中国天然橡胶产业补贴的策略选择,分析发现,政府的补贴对中国天然橡胶产量起促进作用,而对东南亚国家天然橡胶产量起抑制作用。当东南亚国家天然橡胶生产厂商选择高价格策略时,中国政府选择补贴国内良种种植、高新技术割胶等生产厂商;当东南亚国家选择低价格策略时,中国政府选择补贴普通民营胶农。     

‘Deal’ or ‘No Deal’? Impacts of Alternative Post‐Brexit Trade Agreements on UK Agriculture

Brexit will have important implications for UK agricultural commodity markets due to potentially significant changes to trade flows. We quantify the sectoral impacts on UK agriculture of three illustrative scenarios, which capture a broad range of potential trade arrangements: Bespoke Free Trade Deal , WTO Default and Unilateral Trade Liberalisation . It is estimated that the projected market impacts are relatively small if the UK negotiates a Bespoke Free Trade Agreement with the EU. The projected impacts are much greater under the two other scenarios, which capture potential trade arrangements if ‘no deal’ is reached. The high tariffs imposed under the WTO default scenario lead to significant adjustments in trade between the UK and EU‐27, with the impact on the domestic UK market depending on whether the UK is a net importer or a net exporter of the relevant commodity. All sectors experience price and production declines under the trade liberalisation scenario in which the UK unilaterally sets tariffs on imports from both the EU‐27 and the rest of the world to zero; the impacts are particularly severe in the beef and sheep sectors where international competition is very strong.     

Dietary patterns and body mass indices among adults in Korea: evidence from pseudo panel data

The debate over the association between dietary patterns and obesity has not been settled in the literature. Some studies suggest that there are significant differences in mean body mass index across dietary patterns whereas other studies refute that result. The objective of this study is to test whether dietary patterns have a significant effect on body mass index in Korean adults when controlling for calorie intake and several sociodemographic factors. We present new evidence derived from pseudo panel data created from a series of cross‐sections. Our results from the pseudo panel analysis show that some of the dietary patterns that were identified from the Korean adults’ food intake survey have a significant effect on body mass index. Specifically, males with the “beef and processed food” (P < 0.05), or “pork and alcohol” (P < 0.05) dietary pattern had significantly higher BMIs, whereas females with the “fast food” (P < 0.1) or “ramen and bakery” (P < 0.01) dietary pattern had higher BMI.     

Exports and governance: the role of private voluntary agrifood standards

The empirical evidence that institutional differences across countries affect bilateral trade is robust. The crucial question remains how countries can enhance trade amid these differences. In this article, we measure the degree to which governance and institutions differ between countries as “governance distance.” Using a sample of EU/EFTA imports, we examine how adopting private agrifood safety standards modify the effect of governance distance on exports of fruits and vegetables, in particular apples, bananas, and grapes, within a structural gravity framework. Our results show that while increasing governance distance hinders bilateral trade, the interaction of standards and the governance distance is positively associated with exports, hence partially offsetting the direct trade‐inhibiting effects of the latter. GlobalGAP certified countries see the trade‐inhibiting effects of governance distance on their exports reduced by about 50%, ceteris paribus.     

Global market shocks and poverty in Vietnam: the case of rice

World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These “shocks” affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment, and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this article, we present a framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. We quantify transmission of the shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Then we use an applied general equilibrium model to simulate the economic effects of the price changes. A recursive mapping to a nationally representative household living standards survey permits us to identify in detail the ceteris paribus effects of the shock on household incomes and welfare. In this analysis, interregional and intersectoral labor market adjustments emerge as key channels transmitting the effects of global price shocks across sectors and among households.     

天然橡胶产业发展政策分析:红线与红利

在介绍天然橡胶的产业和价格波动的基础上,从天然橡胶产业“红线”与“红利”的视角出发,解读了天然橡胶政策“红线”不能保障战略资源安全和天然橡胶市场“红利”不能保障农户生计发展。最后,提出了争取天然橡胶国际定价权,通过股权运作等方式控制产量和交易成本等;设定合理天然橡胶“红线”,以进口依赖度、胶园开割率和单产等指标确定中国天然橡胶“红线”为110万hm 2;释放双向天然橡胶“红利”,在宜胶区实施“价格支持”政策,在非宜胶区实施“退胶还林”政策等建议。     

Priority setting for research on aquatic resources: an application of modified economic surplus analysis to natural resource systems

In contrast to research on farming systems, research on natural resource systems seldom applies rigorous priority setting techniques, mainly due to difficulties associated with estimating research impact ex ante for such systems. This article presents a replicable approach to priority setting that addresses these difficulties. Assessment is based on multiple criteria, combining economic surplus analysis with subjective scoring, based on information drawn from a cross‐country survey of expert opinion. The approach is applied to the WorldFish Center, a global agricultural research organization focusing on living aquatic resources, both farmed and wild. The exercise demonstrates the relevance of conventional evaluation techniques to fisheries research based on a practical application of its impact pathways.     

自然资源资产价值可持续实现路径分析

基于马克思劳动价值论视角阐释"两山"理论的新时代内涵,对自然资源资产价值实现路径进行理论分析,采用案例分析法、质性研究法,分析"森林生态银行"运行模式实现自然资源资产价值的路径及其运作过程中面临的问题,探讨自然资源资产价值可持续实现的路径。结果表明:"森林生态银行"运行模式实现自然资源资产价值是以生态资源为基础,通过精准调查,在明晰生态资源产权的前提下,运用经济学方法对其价值进行核算,以直接或者间接利用权属交易、生态服务交易、产业化等方式将生态产品货币化。因此,应该建立市场化生态要素产权制度,引入市场经营主体发展生态产业,建立"公私合营"的生态产品交易制度,以便推进自然资源资产价值得以可持续实现。     

Development And Adjustment Policy For A Low Income Farm Area1

This paper attempts to develop profit-maximizing plans for a low income farm area and to indicate the magnitude of resource adjustment required to meet this optimum. A secondary objective is to evaluate the usefulness of the variable resource programming technique as a device for determining resource misallocation and as a guide to regional and national policy. The study set out to develop optimum plans for the individual farm units and for the area using the variable resource programming technique. The results of the individual farm programs indicate that considerable income development potential exists on farms through internal farm resource reorganization and development. Results of the area programs suggest a need for substantial farm unit adjustment in order to achieve efficient resource use, particularly in achieving minimum farm income needs of the future.     

Strange bedfellows or an aligning of values? Exploration of stakeholder values in an alliance of concerned citizens against coal seam gas mining

In the inter-stakeholder relations in environmental and natural resource management disputes, farmers and environmentalists have traditionally fallen along opposing lines arguably due to seemingly incompatible values and fundamental differences between the groups. However, the expansion of the coal seam gas (CSG) industry has resulted in outrage and opposition from farming groups, environmentalists, and communities, leading to an alliance of these “strange bedfellows”. This study explored the opposition movement to CSG in Australia with the use of techniques from social psychology to investigate whether shared values provided the common ground for the alliance. An online survey of values was conducted (N = 197) with members of the CSG opposition alliance. No evidence was found to support the hypothesis that this alliance of stakeholders is comprised of two distinct sub-groups; farmers and environmentalists. The personal values of the respondents were highly inter-compatible, and aligned with social altruism. Sub-clusters were identified which corresponded with the extent to which respondents considered the CSG industry to impact on their lives. This research challenges the appropriateness of predetermined stakeholder classifications being applied to environmental and natural resource management issues, and highlights values as a relevant social factor in the cooperation potential of oft-conflicting stakeholder groups.     

Consumer Motives and Purchase Preferences for Organic Food Products: Empirical Evidence From a Consumer Survey in Bangalore,South India

ABSTRACT

Consumer organic food choice motives and purchase preferences were studied in a structured quantitative survey (N = 201) in Bangalore, with the aim of identifying consumer segments based on these motives and preferences. Further, sociodemographic differences between the clusters were studied. Face-to-face interviews were used to sample the data, which were analyzed with factor and k-means cluster analysis (SPSS 16.0). Five latent factors were identified based on the motives, representing a set of consumer concerns labeled here as “food phobia” (health),” “environment,” “humanity,” “healthy eaters,” and “control.” Further, three clusters emerged from these motives representing 38%, 37%, and 25% of the sample size. The factors differ in terms of variance. Here, the records of perceived healthiness (food phobia) were the most important element, explaining 18.37% of the total variance. These clusters were differing in terms of the level and order of motivations. The health factor was a most important motive in two clusters, followed by environment. Further, humanity was the most important motive for the third cluster. This may reflect a heterogeneous nature of consumers in study area. Additionally, five clusters were identified based on the preferences, and profiles of these clusters differed in terms of sociodemographic factors and consumption pattern. Segments were identified based on motivating factors and preferences, and linking them with food choice motives and products preference provides the input needed by marketing professionals and policy makers to calibrate more efficient marketing strategies to better focus and position their products and design their communication strategies for target segments.     

Diffusion and spillover of new technology: a heterogeneous-agent model for cassava in West Africa

Understanding what determines the geographic spread of innovations can help guide the funding and implementation of research and extension programs. Our approach uses household survey data as model parameters, to simulate behavior across the entire surveyed population and avoid the aggregation bias associated with representative‐farm models. Such a “heterogeneous agent” approach allows us to infer the distribution of a technology's impacts across one set of households, and predict the potential for spreading to another set that shares similar characteristics with respect to natural resource endowments and farming systems. We apply the technique to new cassava varieties in West Africa, finding a strongly poverty‐alleviating impact, with substantial spillover potential from Nigeria to neighboring countries.     

Principles of Australian Quarantine

This article provides an overview of the report on Australia’s quarantine policies and procedures, Australian Quarantine. The Report proposes fundamental changes to Australia’s approach to quarantine and recommends: the development of a partnership between industry, governments and the general public; the establishment of a statutory authority to develop Australia’s quarantine policy and to ensure national delivery of quarantine services; acknowledgment of the importance of maintaining Australia’s unique natural environment; the need to redress the imbalance between the plant and animal sectors; development of a more formally structured process for conducting risk analyses; and expanding the scope of quarantine beyond the ‘barrier’ to cover pre-border, border and post-border activities.