Measuring and Utilizing Corporate Risk Tolerance to Improve Investment Decision Making

Strategic investment decisions are generally characterized by financial risk as well as an irrevocable commitment of significant amounts of capital. The firm's willingness to undertake financial risks plays an important role in the investment decision making process. A comprehensive economic decision analysis to evaluate strategic investment decisions requires a measure of the firm's tolerance for financial risk. This article describes a decision analysis–based technique for assessing managerial risk tolerance as well as managers' ability to be consistent in terms of their financial risk taking. These assessments are then utilized to assist the firm in establishing a corporate risk policy that can guide strategic decisions under uncertainty. The study firm is a business unit within a U.S.-based major oil company with an annual capital budget of approximately $400 million. Our findings suggest that managers are generally risk averse but struggle in terms of being consistent in their financial risk-taking decisions. This work enabled the firm to implement a financial risk tolerance that could be utilized in the economic decision analysis of investment decisions.     

Evaluating growth options as sources of value for pharmaceutical research projects

The financial value of research projects is difficult to assess because they are highly uncertain. Often, the result is either an overly conservative approach to strategic innovation, based on net present value analyses, or an overly aggressive approach based on optimistic qualitative portfolios. R&D project evaluation requires recognizing threats as well as opportunities from uncertain events, and incorporating flexibility in managerial action in response to them. Real options pricing analysis is a widely discussed tool for evaluating such managerial flexibility. The limitation of options pricing lies in its requirement for complete financial markets, in which a replicating asset can be found that reproduces (or, at least, is correlated with) the project’s payoffs in all possible states of the world. However, the major risks of research projects are typically project specific and cannot be replicated in external markets. In this situation, a decision tree is a better tool to represent managerial options during execution of the project, and to evaluate its value. A decision tree is equivalent to options pricing for risks that can be priced in the financial markets (if trading of securities is explicitly included), and moreover, it can incorporate risks and flexibility that are not traded in financial markets. Using decision trees, we demonstrate a quantitative evaluation of compound growth options from research at BestPharma, a large international pharmaceutical company. A growth option is a future opportunity that may arise from a current R&D investment. The growth option may not be related to the primary purpose of the R&D project, or not even be directly foreseeable. Kester (1984) has argued that growth options may account for a large part of project value. BestPharma faced the problem of choosing among several strategic research initiatives. They developed a decision tree representation of the projects, which helped to provide transparency about project value and strategic options. Most importantly, carefully thinking through the tree helped to identify growth options, represented by additional branches in the tree, and to quantify that they represented major sources of value.     

Financial Evaluation of the Product Line

When decisions are being made about adding or dropping a product, most managers will make a financial evaluation of the product and they may try to get some sense of the riskiness of the decision. They will also probably consider the effect of the add/drop decision on other products in the line. Seldom, however, do they consider the risk of a product mix decision in the context of the risk level of the overall product line. Professors Rabino and Wright argue that product managers should take a leaf from the analytical book of financial analysts and calculate a "product Beta" that shows the impact of the risk of the individual product on the risk of the whole portfolio of products. They also suggest some other ways of sharpening the financial picture in what are often strictly marketing evaluations. This is Professor Rabino's second article in JPIM . As in the previous one he coauthored with Howard Moskowitz, this one adds some interesting analytical methodology to managerial decision making.     

A review of: “EXPLOITING CYCLE TIME IN TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT”BY GERALD H. GAYNOR McGraw-Hill,Inc., New York, 1993, xvi + 349 pp. ISBN 0-07-023474-4. List $46.50.

Teaching engineering economy at the undergraduate level has changed little over the past century. In fact, it has become stagnant as its focus has turned toward financial mathematics and away from decision analysis. This is seen as a disservice to students who must eventually develop engineering economy studies. This paper provides motivation and suggestions to revitalize the curriculum, including teaching engineering economy in a decision-making context and integrating research advances into the curriculum. From these suggestions, a tested semester outline is presented. In the spirit of this special issue, it is hoped that these suggestions help move the teaching of engineering economy to the “next level” such that we can produce effective decision makers in the critical area of capital investment analysis.     

再论金融是现代经济的核心

金融是现代经济的核心。经济决定金融,一国的经济发展水平决定了它的金融发展水平,但是,金融服务于经济的过程中,又反作用于经济。如果运用不当,就可能产生金融风险,甚至会危及全局。本文通过对新世纪中国金融的形式分析,研究金融在现代经济中所起到的核心作用,包括金融在市场资源配置中起到核心作用;金融是调控宏观经济的重要“杠杆”;金融安全是国家经济安全的核心三个部分。     

民营企业应对环境管制的战略导向与创新行为——基于浙江纺织行业调查的实证分析

民营企业在金融危机中面临内外需求下降与环境管制加强的双重压力。面对环境管制,根据企业的战略差异可以将其分为主动型和防御型,而企业是否采用绿色技术的决策很大程度上取决于企业的环境战略导向。在环境管制趋于加强的趋势下,主动型企业较防御型企业更倾向于改进绿色工艺或者开发绿色产品。本文以浙江纺织行业为例,实证分析民营企业应对环境管制的战略导向与绿色技术创新行为,并为我国制定和实施针对民营企业的环境管制政策提供建议。     

Boards of Directors,Innovation, and Performance: An Exploration at Multiple Levels

This work reports on an investigation of the dynamics of governance over breakthrough innovation within Fortune 1000 firms. The primary research question investigates the boundary of agency theory within the firm. Using agency and stakeholder theoretic perspectives, the study tests the hypothesis that innovation will thrive in firms that combine a board of directors operating in accordance with a high agency theoretic focus in addition to an innovation governance board operating deeper within the firm that employs a strong stakeholder theoretic orientation in its behavior. The model is tested with data from 98 large firms. Results suggest that the relationship between board of directors' behavior and the firm's overall innovativeness is mediated by innovation decision‐making boards that (1) promote projects that are breakthrough in scope, (2) incorporate input of diverse constituencies within the firm, (3) exhibit patience with financial results, and (4) engage in frequent, informal interactions with project teams. Firms exhibiting high board of director agency orientation in combination with loyalty to mandate, patient financial capital disposition, inclusiveness, and project team interaction as described above for innovation governance board decision‐making prove to be the most innovative as measured by external indicators. For firm innovativeness, consolidated managerial power and behavior is frequently present at the upper levels of the firm, but must be broken down at deeper levels of the firm. This research offers implications to innovation decision‐makers as to how to proceed if the intent is to offer commercializably successful breakthrough innovations.     

APPLYING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND RISK ANALYSIS TO THE FACILITY LOCATION PROBLEM

Facility location problems have become a more strategic decision than just finding the lowest cost space to house a company's product. When choosing the placement of a distribution center, a company must weigh the new freight costs and the cost of a new or leased structure against its necessary service levels, as well as several other factors. Companies can also save on logistics costs in choosing the correct location by incorporating the inherent risk and variability that are involved in a facility location decision. However, in reality, most companies do not analytically consider risk and variability in choosing a location. This article presents a methodology to help determine candidate locations and then conduct a financial risk analysis to determine the ideal location of a new facility.     

Analyzing the Techno-Economic Determinants for the Repowering of Wind Farms

The aim of this article is to identify the relative importance of technical and economic variables in the financial feasibility of repowering wind farm projects. A financial valuation model is developed. We carry out a sensitivity analysis with several variables considered to be key in the repowering decision. The most relevant technical variable is the increase in production efficiency and the most relevant economic variable is the capital expenditures in new equipment. Furthermore, the decision to repower critically depends upon the level of support being provided. The repowering project would not be feasible in the absence of support.     

Applying financial portfolio and multiple criteria approaches to product line decisions

This article describes the application of decision rules from financial portfolio theory to the evaluation of product lines. The focus is on the risk/return implications of an “add” decision to the total portfolio versus the individual product. Multiple criteria approaches that aid product line evaluations are also presented.     

投资项目财务评价内部收益率的比较研究

投资项目财务评价是可行性研究报告的核心内容之一,而内部收益率是判断项目财务可行性和预期盈利能力的主要指标。从内部收益率的经济含义入手,分析了项目投资内部收益率、项目资本金内部收益率和投资各方内部收益率3类内部收益率的适用条件和数量关系,认为项目投资内部收益率是项目融资前决策的首选指标,且只需计算所得税前指标;资本金内部收益率是项目融资决策分析的主要指标,当项目投资内部收益率大于银行利率时,资本金内部收益率大于项目投资内部收益率;当各股东（投资方）同股非同权或存在股权之外的收益分配时,需要计算投资各方内部收益率。     

Integration of financial statement analysis in the optimal design of supply chain networks under demand uncertainty

Models that aim to optimize the design of supply chain networks have become a mainstream in the supply chain literature. This paper aims to fill a gap in the literature by introducing a mathematical model that integrates financial considerations with supply chain design decisions under demand uncertainty. The proposed Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem enchases financial statement analysis through financial ratios and demand uncertainty through scenario analysis. The applicability of the model is illustrated by using a case study along with a sensitivity analysis on financial parameters expressing the business environment. The model could be used as an effective and convenient strategic decision tool by supply chain managers.     

Polychronicity in top management teams: The impact on strategic decision processes and performance of new technology ventures

This study focuses on polychronicity as a cultural dimension of top management teams (TMTs). TMT polychronicity is the extent to which team members mutually prefer and tend to engage in multiple tasks simultaneously or intermittently instead of one at a time and believe that this is the best way of doing things. We explore the impact of TMT polychronicity on strategic decision speed and comprehensiveness and, subsequently, its effect on new venture financial performance. Contrary to popular time‐management principles advocating task prioritization and focused sequential execution, we found that TMT polychronicity has a positive effect on firm performance in the context of dynamic unanalyzable environments. This effect is partially mediated by strategic decision speed and comprehensiveness. Our study contributes to research on strategic leadership by focusing on a novel value‐based characteristic of the TMT (polychronicity) and by untangling the decision‐making processes that relate TMT characteristics and firm performance. It also contributes to the attention‐based view of the firm by positioning polychronicity as a new type of attention structure. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investment decisions in troubled times: A Bayesian approach applied to Brazilian firms

This study analyses the investment decision of 497 Brazilian firms during a period of unstable macroeconomic conditions. The role of financial constraints is considered in a Bayesian econometric model. We estimate three different models, and the results indicate the presence of financial restrictions, especially for capital-intensive firms. The recursive predictive density criterion indicates that the most preferred model is the one in which firm-specific effects are correlated with cash-flow. Financial restrictions are more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.     

THE CORPORATE SOCIAL PERFORMANCE–FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE LINK

Strategic managers are consistently faced with the decision of how to allocate scarce corporate resources in an environment that is placing more and more pressures on them. Recent scholarship in strategic management suggests that many of these pressures come directly from sources associated with social issues in management, rather than traditional arenas of strategic management. Using a greatly improved source of data on corporate social performance, this paper reports the results of a rigorous study of the empirical linkages between financial and social performance. Corporate social performance (CSP) is found to be positively associated with prior financial performance, supporting the theory that slack resource availability and CSP are positively related. CSP is also found to be positively associated with future financial performance, supporting the theory that good management and CSP are positively related.© 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Relationship of Planning and Control Systems with Strategic Choices: A Closer Look

The study finds that relative to others, firms pursuing the Prospector-like strategy (high innovation) have lower financial results uncertainty, a more long-term orientation for decision making, and more decentralized control. As well, the tightness of budgetary control is found to be negatively correlated with financial results uncertainty. Thus, we are able to reproduce in our study the result that Prospector type firms have tighter budgetary control, which many have found puzzling previously, and point to the relation between strategy and financial results uncertainty as an explanation for the result.Based on a sample of large firms in Singapore, the study also finds the impact of the 1997–1998 Asian crisis is correlated with the intensity with which the Prospector-like strategy was pursued.     

Simulating the forces impinging upon the research budgets and organizations of a major firm—a test of a possible method

This paper reports work on one of a series of projects studying the utilization of discretionary funds by managers. The model described here is intended to assist decision makers to study the impact on the financial future of the firm, of policies affecting Research and Development. The factors affecting research, its orientation, and success are several and ill-defined. The present work draws upon the empirical research of Kesztenbaum and McCosh to illuminate the most important factors. The attempt is made to explore how these factors interact, whether this interaction can be simulated by a cross-impact procedure; and translates the factors into financial results using a modification of a model developed by McCosh (1975).
The paper shows how the resulting new model, called 'RDSIM', was received by some major British companies and also considers the sensitivity of the results to some of the input which must necessarily be imprecise.     

能源费用托管合同能源管理客户财务评价研究

客户风险是合同能源管理项目面临的主要风险之一。对客户进行财务评价有助于企业了解客户的经营与信用状况,所以在合同能源管理项目决策前对客户进行财务评价可以有效降低客户风险。结合企业的财务评价理论,从能源费用托管型合同能源管理项目对客户的要求出发,选取13个财务评价指标,建立了一个适合能源费用托管型合同能源管理项目的客户财务综合评价系统。     

RECONSIDERING THE SUNK-COST CONCEPT

This paper presents a decision procedure to aid in making capital rationing investment and borrowing decisions. Weingartner's Basic Horizon Model and Oakford and huesen's Maximum Prospective Value criterion are both extended to explicitly include long-term borrowing decisions. Information derived from interviews with financial executives on the subject of business attitudes toward borrowing is used to develop the conceptual logic of the decision procedure, which is presented in terms of a mathematical programming formulation.     

Networks and the Decision to Persist with Underperforming R&D Projects

Drawing on aspiration level theory and the networks literature, this paper develops a model toward decision makers' persistence with underperforming R&D projects based on the perceived properties of their personal network. The assumption is that positive feedback from network partners motivates persistence, and that this effect is multiplied when the decision makers' network is larger and denser, when network ties are predominantly strong, and when communication frequency within the network is high. The model is tested by a field experiment and conjoint methodology. Analysis of 1632 persistence decisions nested within 51 scientists responsible for R&D projects reveals that more positive feedback enhances persistence of underperforming R&D projects, and that this effect becomes stronger with increasing network size, network density, and communication frequency. These findings extend the project management literature by focusing on the social environment of the decision maker as one so far neglected factor in empirical studies on persistence decisions. Moreover, this study is among the first to investigate contingency relationships between feedback received from network partners and network structure. Finally, while most studies have emphasized that individuals and organizations can profit from their engagements in social networks, this paper suggests a potential dark side of networks by showing that networks can encourage decision makers to persist with their investment in an underperforming—and potentially failing—project. These results can help project managers involved in networking activities to better understand the effects of these activities on their decision policies, and thus draw better and more accurate decisions. Second, this study provides insights into how organizational strategy with respect to dissemination of R&D results and involvement of the organization's R&D managers in the scientific community influences the persistence of underperforming R&D projects, and thereby the organization's R&D expenditures. This can assist top managers to design financial controls and allocate financial resources to managers of underperforming R&D projects in line with the organization's networking strategy.