Compatibility of Government Guarantees with Flexibility in Canadian Wheat Price Pooling

Financial option theory is used to evaluate Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) price pooling and associated government guarantees. Price guarantees and final payments on the pool can be viewed as special financial derivative products. Financial models are used to evaluate alternative pricing flexibility alternatives within the constraints of the CWB price pooling system and at the same time to provide a measure of the CWB dollars at risk associated with offering these contracts. Flexible pricing alternatives are incompatible with a government price guarantee that is valuable. The CWB dollar risk associated with flexible pricing could be substantial.
Les auteurs recourent à la théorie des contrats d'option pour évaluer le système de fixation de prix communs par la Commission canadienne du blé (CCB) et les garanties connexes du gouvemement. On peut considérer les prix garantis et les paiements finals du pool comme un type particulier de produits dérivés. Des modéles financiers permettent d'évaluer d'autres méthodes qui autoriseraient la fluctuation des prix dans les contraintes du systéme de pool de la CCB, mais serviraient aussi à mesurer les risques financiers de la CCB associés à la proposition de contrats. Les autres méthodes de fixation des prix sont incompatibles avec une garantie valable du gouvemement au niveau des prix. La CCB courrait le risque de penes importantes si elle adoptait une politique de variation des prix.     

Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.     

城市特性差异下的土地财政依赖度与房地产价格关系

以我国35个大中城市为样本,对其在2003-2010年间土地财政依赖度、房价水平和房价上涨情况做了简单描述性统计,并通过聚类发现这些城市在土地财政依赖度和房价关系总体上有4种不同的类型,在对这4种类型城市的平均人均GDP、平均第三产业占比、平均人口密度、建成区面积年增长率、平均人均实际利用外商投资额等特性进行分析之后,认为土地财政是一些地区城市化的必经之路,只要选择好城市发展方式,做好经济结构转型,也可以减少对土地财政的依赖程度。     

替代性小麦期货合约价格的相互影响机制:基于VECM的实证研究

本文运用向量误差修正模型(VECM),实证分析了在用途上具有一定替代性的小麦期货交易品种(强筋小麦和硬冬白麦)每日连续(nearby)期货合约价格间的关系。结果表明,强筋小麦与硬冬白麦期货合约价格之间存在着较弱的长期协整关系。该协整关系对两个小麦品种价格波动的短期失衡都有显著的系统调节作用,其中对硬冬白麦价格波动的修正作用要强于对强筋小麦价格波动的修正作用。在短期内,强筋小麦和硬冬白麦的价格波动同时受到自身和对方滞后期价格波动的影响。另外,CBOT小麦价格波动对硬冬白麦价格有显著影响,而对强筋小麦价格没有显著的影响。     

新疆粮食收购价格政策执行情况及思考

深化粮食流通体制改革是党中央、国务院的一项重大决策 ,也是当前经济工作一项重要任务。目前 ,我区粮食流通体制改革已取得初步成效 ,粮食企业亏损得到有效遏制。粮食价格政策的逐步完善 ,对深化粮食流通体制改革 ,发挥了重要的作用。但在粮食收购中 ,出现了一些新的情况、新的问题 ,对执行粮食收购价格政策产生了消极影响 ,应引起有关部门的重视。一、贯彻落实国家粮食收购政策的基本情况《国务院关于进一步完善粮食流通体制改革政策措施的通知》规定 ,各地要根据粮食市场供求情况 ,按照有利于粮食生产结构的调整 ,有利于农民获得合理收益…     

The Market Structure and Price Competition in China's Wheat Import Market:

This paper reveals that wheat exporters to China compete in an imperfectly competitive market. U.S. wheat exports face strong price competition from Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Community, but has a highly elastic demand in China. By adopting an aggressive promotion policy, the U.S. could reduce the market shares of Argentina and Canada. China would shift to wheat from Argentina, Australia, and Canada if U.S. wheat exports were interrupted because of high prices or non-price trade frictions. An expansion in China's wheat imports would accrue to wheat from Argentina and the U.S.     

国外地价与房价关系及其启示

研究目的:介绍美国、英国、瑞典、韩国、日本以及新加坡等国家地价与房价的关系.研究方法:比较分析法.研究结果:国外地价与房价的关系可分成4类:一是地价低房价也低的国家(瑞典),二是地价低房价不低的国家(美国),三是地价高房价不高的国家(新加坡与英国),四是地价高房价也高的国家(韩国与日本).研究结论:中国应根据人多地少的基本国情,借鉴国外有关经验,协调好地价与房价的关系,促进房地产业的健康发展.     

Hedonic Price Functions for Wheat in the World Market: Implications for Canadian Wheat Export Strategy

This study derives econometric estimates of the marginal implicit values of major characteristics of wheat in world markets for two recent time periods using pooled time-series and cross-sectional data. The results indicate that a one percentage point increase in protein content was associated with an average 0.3% price premium from 1976–77 to 1979–80. This price response had increased to an average 0.5% premium from 1980–81 to 1983–84, when there was an average world market protein premium of about U.S. $6.00 for a one percentage point increase in protein per tonne of wheat. During the latter time period, there was a premium for white wheat of nearly U.S. $16 per tonne. Wheat exported from the United States and Canada appeared to be discounted in price relative to wheat from Australia. Given the general order of the inverse relationship between yield and protein content that applies in wheat breeding, it is apparent that total revenue from Canadian wheat exports could be considerably increased by more emphasis on the development of higher-yielding wheats that are adapted to the higher-moisture regions of the Prairies. More emphasis on development of white wheats that are suited to Prairie growing conditions is also merited. La présente étude vise à obtenir des estimations économétriques à partir de valeurs marginales implicites des caractéristiques principales du blé sur les marchés mondiaux pour deux périodes de temps récentes, à l'aide de séries chronologiques regroupées et de données transversales. Les résultats obtenus montrent qu'une augmentation de un pour cent de la teneur en protéines correspond en moyenne à une bonification de 0,3% de 1976–1977 à 1979–1980. Cette réaction des prix a atteint en moyenne 0,5% de 1980–1981 a 1983–1984, alors qu'une augmentation de un pour cent de la teneur en protéines par tonne de blé donnait lieu à une bonification moyenne, sur les marchés mondiaux, d'environ 6 $ US. Pendant la dernière période, le blé blanc faisait l'objet d'une bonification de près de 16 $ US par tonne. Le blé exporté des États-Unis et du Canada semble avoir été vendu à rabais, comparativement au blé venant d'Australie. Compte tenu du rapport inverse généralement observé entre le rendement et la teneur en protéines dans un contexte de sélection végétale, il semble que le total des revenus tirés des exportations canadiennes de blé pourrait s'accroître considérablement si l'on mettait davantage l'accent sur la production de variétés à rendement plus élevé, adaptées aux régions à haut taux d'humidité des Prairies. II serait également justifié de consacrer davantage d'énergie à la production de blés blancs mieux adaptés aux conditions de croissance des Prairies.     

Measurement and Testing for Equality of Foreign Price and Consumer Price Index Transmission in Russia

This paper tests for segmentation of retail meat markets in Russia before and after the financial crisis of 1998. Using monthly prices of pork and beef in 80 regions of Russia from 1994 to 1999, we measure the short-run response of regional prices to changes in foreign prices and domestic inflation. We find that changes in both foreign prices and domestic inflation have distinct impacts on the prices of these commodities in different Russian cities, indicating that the markets are segmented in the short run. An analysis of the effect of the financial crisis shows that the response to the crisis was mixed, with some regions showing more evidence of segmentation than others.     

改粮食保护价收购为直接补贴农民—我国农业保护政策的重大调整

进入 2 0 0 2年以来 ,安徽、河南、湖南、湖北等粮食主产省纷纷提出要进行改保护价收购为直接补贴农民的试点。推进这项改革究竟有什么意义 ?时机是否成熟 ?如何具体实施 ?为回答这些问题 ,笔者研阅了有关资料 ,并到安徽省与有关部门的干部和农民进行座谈讨论。总的认识是 :放开主产区粮食购销市场和价格 ,把国有粮食购销企业真正推向市场 ,对农民减少的收入给予相应补偿 ,是彻底解决目前主产区粮食库存量居高不下、大量陈化变质、价格背离供求、亏损继续发生、人员不断膨胀、企业依赖政府等种种问题的根本出路。一、改粮食保护价收购为直接…     

Structural Breaks and the Relationship between Barley and Wheat Futures Prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange

Co-movement between futures prices can arise when commodities are substitutes. Counterintuitively, Dawson and White fail to find a significant long-run link between feed barley and wheat prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. This relationship is re-examined using  Johansen, Mosconi, and Nielsen's co-integration procedure that permits structural breaks. Results show evidence of co-integration and hence price discovery. There is a significant break in October 2000 following Common Agricultural Policy intervention price reductions, the barley–wheat futures market is perfectly integrated, and the barley price Granger-causes the wheat price. Modeling structural breaks in price relationships appears important.     

The Impact of Price Stabilizing Policies on the Risk Efficient Crop/Fallow Decisions of Wheat Farmers in the Brown Soil Zone of Saskatchewan

The micro-linkages between the crop/fallow decision and price-induced risk are examined for wheat producers located on the brown soils of Saskatchewan. Three generic price stabilization policies are defined. Based on a bio-economic simulation model, the risk-efficient FLEXCROP decision rules are selected, and their corresponding cropping patterns are assessed for each generic price stabilization policy. Assuming no subsidy component within the mandatory price stabilization program:
• risk lovers reduce cropped acreages by 0% to 4%, depending upon both the risk-aversion level and the stabilizing program and
• risk-averse producers increase cropped acreage from 10% to 35% over no price stabilization.     

Government Policies and Sources of Latecomer Firms' Capability Building: A Learning Story from Brazil

Millennium goals aim to halve poverty in developing countries by 2015. As a distinction is not drawn between the persistently and transiently poor, there is a risk that strategies designed to accelerate growth to achieve the desired reduction in an overall index of poverty may be preferred to those that benefit the persistently poor. Besides, in the absence of a disaggregation of these goals into rural and urban components, rural poverty reduction may not get the priority it deserves. Finally, the feasibility of the millennium goals is not plausible. While the growth rates required for achieving these goals do not differ much from those recorded in recent years, their sustainability is not self-evident. Moreover, as income inequality has increased in recent years, the poverty reduction due to a given growth rate is lower. But these goals are nevertheless useful in drawing attention to pervasive deprivation in developing countries, and to the need for a determined and co-ordinated effort by the development community in reducing it substantially in the not-too-distant future.     

Government Interventions and the Production of Wheat in Saskatchewan and North Dakota: An Empirical Analysis

This paper measures the impact of different government programs relating to wheat production in Canada and the United States. Acreage and yield equations were estimated, which specifically incorporated government policy variables, using time-series data from 1960 to 1984, for wheat production in Saskatchewan and North Dakota, the two major producing regions for spring wheat in the two countries. It was found that the Canadian system of delivery quotas, while not, initially introduced as a production control program, is theoretically and empirically a more effective form of production control than the American system of acreage diversion/set-asides. A 10 percent reduction in delivery quotas reduces wheat production in Saskatchewan by an estimated 4.87 percent in the long run; farmers reduce both acreage and yield per acre in response to more restrictive delivery quotas. On the other hand, a 10 percent increase in acreage diversion/set-aside reduces wheat production in North Dakota only by an estimated 0.59 percent: farmers offset their reduction in acreage by increasing their yield per acre. Estimates of the acreage response to wheat prices in Saskatchewan are much lower than previous estimates reported in the literature. Cette communication mesure l' effet des programmes gouvernmentaux différents se rapportant à la production de blé au Canada et aux Etats-Unis. Let équations quant à la surface et le rendement sont estimées, incorporant spécifiquement des variables pour les politiques gouvernementales, utilisant les informations pour les séries-temporelles depuis 1960 à 1984, pour la production de blé en Saskatchewan et au Dakota-Nord, les deux principales régions productrices de blé au printemps des deux pays. Le système canadien des contrats de livraison, bien que ce système n' ait pas été conçu comme programme de contrôle de la production, est théoriquement et empiriquement un moyen plus efficace de contrôle de la production que le systeme américain de diversion/mise de côté des surfaces. Une diminution de 10 pourcent dans les contrats de livraison résulte en une diminution estimées à 4.87 pourcent au long terme de la production de blé en Saskatchewan; les fermiers réduisent à la fois la surface et la productivité à l' acre en réponse à des quotas de livraison plus restrictifs. D' autre part, une augmentation de 10 pourcent des surfaces en diversion/mise de côté résulte en une réduction de la production de blé au Dakota-Nord estimée a 0.59 pourcent; les fermiers contournent les réductions en surfaces par un augmentation de productivité à l' acre. Les estimés pour la Saskatchewan quand à l' ajustement en surfaces en reponsé au prix du blé sont beaucoup inférieurs aux estimés antérieurement rapportés dans la littérature sur le sujet.     

Price Discrimination in Russian Wheat Exports: Evidence from Firm‐level Data

Russia emerged as an important wheat exporter in recent years raising the question of how this will affect international wheat markets. In particular developing countries – the main destination of Russian wheat exports – could be harmed by aggressive pricing behaviour. This article analyses the exertion of price discrimination by Russian wheat exporting firms based on Krugman's pricing‐to‐market hypothesis. We apply Knetter's panel model to a firm‐level dataset and find evidence for price‐discriminating behaviour by Russian firms in 25 out of 61 destination countries over the period 2002–2011.     

Information Exchange and Distributional Implications of Price Discrimination with Internet Marketing in Agriculture

A price discrimination model is proposed to explain why firms provide extraneous information on Internet sites selling agricultural inputs. Whether an informative site is offered depends on price discrimination potential, which depends on how much farmers reveal heterogeneity by Internet behavior. Price discrimination is greater if information benefits are negatively correlated with farm size (or other characteristics), explaining why extraneous (not product-related) information is offered on Internet sales sites. Price discrimination adversely affects some farmers but may be beneficial on average because it generates free information. Outcomes depend on whether Internet users are aware of price differentials on the basis of clickstream information.     

The Evolution of Rice Price Policies over Four Decades: Thailand,Indonesia and the Philippines

Using time series data over the past four decades, the 1960s to 1990s, this paper examines rice pricing policies in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. It analyses the determinants of the paths along which these policies have moved. While it confirms the findings of previous analyses, that price stabilization has been a major policy achievement, it also reveals that stabilization was not necessarily sustained over the entire survey period. It finds that politico-economic factors—such as entry into the GATT, increase in per capita GDP and achievement of rice self-sufficiency—have been among the determinants of rice pricing policy, but the ways in which these factors have affected policy vary among these countries. Such variation, which previous cross-country studies have not analysed, is a reflection of variations in the roles of rice and in the attitudes of policy-makers in these economies. In its conclusion, this study draws policy implications for each country, taking into account differences in the impact.