HEDGING INTEREST RATE RISK UNDER TERM STRUCTURE EFFECTS: AN APPLICATION TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

In this paper we investigate the use of the structured full rank model for hedging the balance sheet of a financial institution. Simulation results suggest that the optimal hedge is insensitive to changes in parameter estimates. In addition, we hedge a portfolio of Treasury bills using both the full information covariance matrix and the structured covariance matrix. We then contrast these results with those obtained from a duration-based model. Empirical results suggest that the structured full rank model is generally more effective in hedging applications than either the full information model or duration-based model.     

COMMERCIAL BANK RISK: MARKET,INTEREST RATE,AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Because of recent structural changes in the balance sheets of banks, regulatory changes in the risk-based capital requirements, and the recent adoption of mark-to-market accounting changes, interest rate risk remains an important issue for commercial banks and an important regulatory concern. Market, interest rate, and foreign exchange risk are estimated for a sample of commercial banks using ordinary least squares from 1986 to 1991. Consistent with earlier studies, the estimated coefficients continue to be unstable. We find that interest rate risk decreases and foreign exchange risk increases. Moreover, the results differ depending on practices of the bank (money center, superregional, or regional). We find evidence consistent with earlier studies that theorize foreign exchange risk is explained by unhedged foreign loan exposure.     

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION LOCATION AND PRO FORMA FINANCIAL HEDGING OF EXCHANGE RATE RISK

There are many considerations in a firm's choice of where to locate a production facility. One of the least understood is the implication of foreign exchange risk. The issue is complex because, in addition to the concept of operational hedging, managers must also consider economic exposure and, in cases with foreign competitors, competitive exposure. As shown in this article, a firm's competitive exposure to exchange rate changes depends upon the location of its competitors' plants as well as its own.
The currency exposures of various international production strategies are demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios. The scenarios can also be used to perform a pro forma financial hedging analysis of currency exposure in simple three-outcome cases. By implicitly accounting for the market's pricing of exchange rate risk, the financial hedging analysis provides a straightforward way for managers to evaluate various international production possibilities.     

INTEREST RATE RISK AND EQUITY VALUES OF HEDGED AND UNHEDGED FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES

This paper uses an approach developed by Flannery and James to show that interest rate changes have different effects on equity values of hedged and unhedged financial institutions. Equity values of (generally unhedged) savings and loans are significantly more sensitive to unexpected interest rate changes than equities of (generally hedged) commercial banks. The interest rate sensitivity of (generally hedged) life insurance equities is similar to that of bank equities. Overall, the equity values of unhedged financial institutions are more sensitive to interest rate changes than the equity values of financial institutions that more closely balance the maturities of their assets and liabilities.     

INTEREST RATE RISK HEDGING FOR DUE-ON-SALE MORTGAGES WITH EARLY TERMINATION

The impact of random early termination on the interest rate elasticity and the related implications of hedging a mortgage security are examined. The common approach to computing duration using average mortgage life is shown to be biased and insufficient. Because the prepayment distributions of mortgages tend to have wide dispersions, substantial errors result from using average mortgage life. These results are also applicable to other financial obligations subject to prepayment.     

DURATION,IMMUNIZATION, AND HEDGING WITH INTEREST RATE FUTURES

The recent advent of the interest rate futures markets has greatly enriched the hedging opportunities of market participants faced with undesired interest rate risk. The variety of futures contracts presently spans a number of instruments with different risk, maturity, and coupon characteristics. This paper modifies the concept of duration and extends the duration hedging approach to cases where futures contracts are used as the hedging instrument. The derived hedge ratios take into account differences in coupon, maturity, and risk for three different regimes. Usage of these hedge ratios should lead to more efficient hedging of interest rate risk.     

FINANCIAL RATIO ADJUSTMENT DYNAMICS AND INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS

This paper re-examines the financial ratio adjustment model by (1) respecifying the model such that the speed of adjustment coefficient follows a dynamic adjustment process in response to some kind of economic shocks, and (2) proposing a joint estimation of firms within the same industry to capture unobservable industry effects. Examining six financial ratios within seven industries that contain 85 firms, our results reveal that a joint estimation method substantially improves the traditional model based upon an OLS method and that economic shocks, measured by changes in interest rate expectations, affect the speed of adjustment coefficients for over one-third of the sampling firms.     

市场化条件下利率风险对商业银行的影响及其防范机制

我国利率市场化改革进程缓慢,整体上呈现先外币、后本币,先贷款、后存款,先批发、后零售的特点,并在管理观念、管理体制、管理技术和管理法规等方面存在一些问题。利率市场化真正实行后将产生许多风险,其中利率风险对商业银行的存贷款、收益、利率价格和内部利率政策等产生重大影响。对此作者提出从五个方面构建我国商业银行利率风险防范机制:建立提高资本充足率,迅速增强抗风险能力的机制;建立合理确定内部资金转移价格等为内容的产品定价体系;建立高效完善的资产负债管理组织体系;建立新业务和中间业务体系;建立商业银行利率风险规避工具的应用体系等。     

DURATION AND INTEREST RATE RISK FOR UNCERTAIN CASH FLOW STREAMS

This paper amends the Hicks-Macaulay-Samuelson duration analysis to allow for uncertainty in asset cash flows. An asset's duration measure then becomes a random variable which may possess no central moments. We show, however, that a transformed version of the duration measure is normally distributed. This can be used to make probability assessments of the sensitivity ofthe present value of an asset's cash flow stream to interest rate movements.     

BOND RISK PREMIUMS, FINANCIAL DATA, AND THE EFFECT OF MARKET SEGMENTATION

The main question which this empirical study addresses is: Are the fmancial determinants of bond risk premiums different for industrial versus utility bonds (i.e. market segmentation)? First, a multiple discriminant analysis of eight financial variables is conducted to verify an underlying argument that divergent operational characteristics lead to different financial profiles. Linear regression analyses are then performed cross-sectionally for the years 1975 to 1979. The results indicate that (1) the market segmentation effect materially affects the determination of bond premiums, (2) the business cycle is an important factor, and (3) utility premiums are less sensitive to fmancial risk than industrial bond premiums.     

INTEREST RATE HEDGING: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES

For hedging, financial and agricultural futures contracts differ in their usefulness. This paper presents a new hedging approach uniquely appropriate to financial futures that better fits the typical hedging situation confronted by those wishing to hedge interest rate risk. The superiority of this new hedging strategy is demonstrated empirically by comparing the strategy with several other methods currently in use.