Grain Production and Food Security in Arab Countries

Grains are the most important group of products in the food security programs of the Arab countries. These countries suffer from a shortage of food in general and in particular a shortage of grains. This results from a rapidly growing population and growing disposable incomes. This paper describes the grain sector in the economy of the Arab countries with special attention to its role in the national and regional food security programs. First, output and consumption of grains between 1973 and 1984 are analysed in all Arab countries, with special attention to wheat. Second, the concept of food security is discussed. Food security is defined as continuity of food supply to the whole population and unhampered access to food by all groups of the population. Food security is considered principally as a problem of short-term variability of food production and instability of imports. Food insecurity is thus measured by the size of production and consumption variability in relation to the long-term levels of consumption and production. The standard deviation and the coefficient of variation are used as indicators of the variability. Last, strategies and policies for achievement of food security are discussed. The growing food supply gap in the Arab countries implies the need to increase grain production as an element of major importance in the development of food-security programs. Proper grain policies must foresee increases of yields, reduction of post-harvest losses, and increased capacity to handle and store grain reserves. The establishment of national and regional Arab strategic grain stocks equal to the average magnitude of harvest shortfalls is recommended as one measure of short-term strategy. The long-term strategy, in turn, focuses on development of domestic agricultural production and greater cooperation among the Arab countries.     

World food markets into the 21st century: commodity risk management policies

Recent concerns about future global food production seem poorly based. The rapid phase of growth in food consumption is over for most of the world's population because of increased incomes and, besides, population growth rates continue to slow. Thus, the rate of growth of food production needed in the future is much lower than it has been for the past 40 years. Production and price instability will continue, perhaps with lessened intensity because of reduced government intervention. With private agricultural interests now facing greater exposure to price and production risks, especially in developing countries, there needs to be greater emphasis on financial market instruments for managing these risks.     

基于水—能—粮关联关系的粮食主产区农业种植结构优化研究——以吉林省为例

[目的]通过调整农业种植结构,优化水资源、能源及土地资源配置,在生态优先绿色发展的要求下实现区域粮食生产目标。[方法]文章选取吉林省为研究区域,采用水足迹模型和能耗核算模型解析主要农作物的耗水及耗能特点,并以区域的经济和生态效益为目标,构建以土地资源、水资源、能源、粮食安全、农业政策作为约束条件的多目标规划模型对种植结构进行优化。[结果]（1）不同农作物的水足迹、能耗结构以及资源利用效率存在显著差异。（2）优化后的耕种总面积略有增加,玉米种植面积比例明显下降,小麦和烤烟种植面积比例基本稳定,其余作物种植面积比例均有不同程度的上升。（3）优化后各类效益均有明显提升,其中水足迹减少5.02%,能耗减少5.96%,生物质能增长26.14%,粮食产量增加5.27%,经济效益提高34.38%,生态效益提高18.69%。[结论]充分考虑农业种植中水、能源和粮食的关联关系以及内外部的多种约束条件,在保障各类作物的最低产量前提下,优先发展低耗水、低耗能、低污染、高收益的作物,提高资源利用效率的同时改善区域农业生产的经济收益和生态效益,实现区域农业的可持续发展。     

The Variable Response of Agricultural Supply to World Price Instability in Developing Countries

This paper analyses the effect of world price instability on the agricultural supply from developing countries and determines to what extent this effect is dependent upon the macroeconomic environment. Producers from agricultural commodity‐exporting countries are particularly vulnerable to the fluctuations of world prices: they are widely exposed to price shocks and have little ability to cope with them. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of risk‐coping strategies is conditioned by the influence of macroeconomic factors (infrastructure, inflation and financial deepening). Thus country‐specific price indices are established, and the response of production indices to price instability indices is estimated by using a panel model including macroeconomic variables which interact with price instability. Such analysis is based on a sample of 25 countries between 1961 and 2002. The results highlight a significant negative effect of the world price instability on supply, and further show that high inflation, weak infrastructure and a poorly developed financial system exacerbate this effect.     

Spatial price efficiency in Mozambique's post-reform maize markets

Maize (Zea mays) shortages and maize price instability continue to occur in Mozambique in spite of policy reforms and great capacity for increased production in northern Mozambique. This study measured the efficiency of spatial maize price arbitrage in Mozambique's post‐reform period. Spatial price inefficiency does not seem to explain why food shortages continue to occur in Mozambique, suggesting nonprice market constraints such as poor infrastructure and poor market institutions as more likely explanations. Baulch's spatial efficiency test indicated that it is not profitable to ship maize from northern surplus maize regions to southern Mozambique. Records of interregional maize shipments show that indeed grain is not being shipped from the north to the south. Market liberalization may have improved spatial price efficiency, but high transfer costs still limit trade and potential benefits from freeing markets. Under these circumstances, food shortages and price instability are likely to continue.     

RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY AMONG AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper develops measures of relative price variability among agricultural commodities in the UK farm sector for the period 1956-88. Econometric tests of the hypothesis that relative price variability is positively correlated with instability in the macroeconomy are carried out. The results indicate that UK agricultural commodity prices become more volatile relative to one another when the economy-wide inflation rate increases and when aggregate output becomes more variable. These findings suggest that UK producers and consumers of domestically grown farm products experience increased risk and uncertainty in their production and consumption decisions during periods of macroeconomic instability. The effects of UK entry into the European Community are also examined; no evidence is found to suggest that adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy reduced year-to-year relative price variability among agricultural commodities.     

China's changing diet and its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions: an index decomposition analysis

With increasing awareness of agriculture's contribution to global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and China's position as the world's top GHG emitter, there is heightened attention to the embodied emissions in China's food consumption. China's diet has shifted to include more fruit, vegetables, meat and dairy. Not surprisingly, GHG emissions from food consumption have also increased substantially. This analysis links China's food consumption with the emissions of food production industries in China and its trade partners to determine the effects of dietary change on GHGs since 1989. We utilise high‐resolution food production and emissions data to perform a logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition to attribute changes in GHG emissions to the scale, supply structure, demand structure and efficiency effects resulting from Chinese dietary changes over a 20‐year period. This study finds that while countries supplying food to China contribute little to China's food‐related GHGs, demands for meat and dairy play a much larger role, driving up emissions. The overall scale of increased consumption of all food further propels growth in GHG emissions. Results indicate, however, that while food consumption in China more than doubles between 1989 and 2009 improvements in technological efficiency limit the rate of increase.     

新一轮国际粮食价格上涨：原因及对中国市场的影响

[目的]随着中国粮食进口不断增加,国内外市场联系越来越紧密。2020年下半年以来,国际市场粮食价格快速上涨,对国内粮食市场产生一定影响,分析国际市场价格上涨的原因和影响对确保国内粮食供应稳定、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。[方法]文章分析了2019年以来小麦、大米、玉米、大豆4种粮食产品的国内外价格走势,从供需状况、贸易政策、气候变化等因素分析国际市场价格波动的原因,并探讨了国际价格对国内价格的影响。[结果]当前全球主要粮食品种供应充足,库存仍处于较高水平,此轮国际粮食价格上涨主要是受到美国等发达国家宽松的货币政策以及疫情后全球消费逐步回暖的影响;但国际市场价格上涨对中国市场的影响总体有限,国内小麦、大米、玉米价格上涨的主因是国内消费回暖和生猪产能恢复带动的饲用需求快速增长,油用大豆受国际市场的影响较大。[结论]为稳定国内粮食市场,避免国际市场的冲击,中国要进一步提升粮食综合生产能力,强化科技支撑,加强粮食储备管理,健全政策支持体系,并引导居民建立科学的消费观念。     

Household Food Demand in Burkina Faso: Implications for Food Policy

Chronic food production deficits since the early 1970s have prompted policymakers of Burkina Faso to emphasize technological research with the goal of increasing the production of the most-consumed locally-grown cereals: sorghum, millet and maize. Meanwhile, urban consumers have been developing preferences for rice and wheat, cereals that are primarily imported. This study estimates demand relationships among food items in Ouagadougou, Burkina. The results of the estimation suggest that prices, income, household composition, education, marital status and urbanization were jointly important in explaining household expenditure allocations. Both local and imported cereal consumption responded positively to an income increase. However, incremental income changes would lead to relatively greater consumption of locally produced cereals by low-income households whereas high-income households would consume relatively more wheat and rice. The household model is then used to demonstrate its relevance in addressing food policy issues, by forecasting the levels of urban grain demand under alternative income and demographic scenarios. With increased production due to advances in technology, the urban demand levels do not exhaust the rural surplus of local cereals, but deficits persist in the rice-wheat sector. The results underscore the importance of technological research since Burkina could become self-sufficient in at least the production of sorghum, millet and maize.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击粮食安全:趋势、影响与应对

新冠肺炎疫情在全球加速扩散蔓延,引发全球粮食市场异常波动以及对中国粮食安全的担忧。疫情对后期全球粮食生产与贸易的影响将进一步加大,全球粮食市场波动有可能进一步升级。随着全球金融市场充分释放流动性,国际投机资本若炒作农产品市场,爆发类似2008年粮食危机的风险将越来越高。分析表明,中国粮食安全保障体系总体上可从容应对全球粮食市场波动升级的挑战,但大豆等农产品进口需防控国际市场波动风险。本文认为,要高度重视全球粮食市场波动的可能风险和挑战,必须加强监测、及早谋划,系统应对、综合施策。包括:有效管控输入性不稳定预期对国内粮食市场的干扰和冲击;进一步强化粮食生产能力建设;构建国家粮食安全保障风险治理体系;完善重要农产品储备体系;强化农产品全球供应链管理;加强国际粮食安全、贸易和投资政策协调。     

Agricultural production and children's diets: evidence from rural Ethiopia

We study the relationship between pre‐school children's food consumption and household agricultural production. Using a large household survey from rural Ethiopia, we find that increasing household production diversity leads to considerable improvements in children's dietary diversity. However, we also document how this nonseparability of consumption and production does not hold for households that have access to food markets. These findings imply that nutrition‐sensitive agricultural interventions that push for market integration are likely to be more effective in reducing under‐nutrition than those promoting production diversity.     

Effects of Increasing Agricultural Productivity in a Multisectoral Model for the Philippines

This paper investigates empirically the economy-wide effects of agricultural productivity increases in the Philippines, reporting the results of a quantitative analysis based on a general equilibrium framework. A multisectoral, price endogenous model of the Philippine economy is employed, emphasizing not only agriculture but also other production sectors with which it closely interacts, as well as the distinction between rural and urban households in their income generation and consumption patterns. Among other findings, the differential effects on the real income of rural households vis-a-vis urban households arising from increased productivity in the various components of the agricultural production sector are striking. The resulting improvements in the trade balance and national income, among other macroeconomic variables, are also relatively significant. Moreover, there are significant differences in the economy-wide effects among the four sectors of food and agriculture distinguished in the study. Particularly interesting is the highly favorable impact of rising productivity in the food processing sector on agricultural crop production and rural income, a linkage effect that has not received much attention in the development literature.     

Food,farmers, and the future: Investigating prospects of increased food production within a national context

With international food price shocks in 2008 and 2011, food security became a political priority in many countries. In addition, some politicians have recently adopted a more nationalistic stance. Against that background, this paper critically investigates the prospects of increased food production within a national context. We use a small, high-income country, Norway, as an empirical case. In 2012, the government set a goal of increasing agricultural food production by 20% by 2030. We ask: 1) How has food production in Norway developed before and after the goal was set? 2) What plans do farmers have, and what do they regard as the main obstacles to increased production? We apply a mixed method combining public statistics, a survey, and interviews. We analyze four production systems: a) milk; b) grass-based meat; c) combined pig and grain; and d) grain. These systems represent around 80% of the domestically consumed food produced on farms in Norway. Since 2000, aggregate food production has had a slight downward trend with periodic fluctuations. Based on a political economy approach, we identify land and labor as the most limiting factors. Capital is less of a hindrance and offers a potential for increased production. Farmers have modest expectations of increased production, though. This outlook resonates with the strong integration of agriculture into the wider economy, at both micro and macro levels, making it challenging to implement new policies and change farm practices on a broad basis. Increases in some specific products, however, are realistic.     

International trade and agricultural development in developing countries: Significance of the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations

Liberalization of world trade in agricultural products ranks high on the agenda of the Uruguay Round. After a period of more than six years, however, the negotiations have not been concluded. Nevertheless, an outcome seems to be in sight. The agreement will most likely not result in a move to freer trade. It seems that domestic policies will become even more regulative than in the past in an attempt to cut exportable surpluses and to ease trade tensions among the main exporting nations. This paper explores possible impacts of the GATT Round on agricultural development in developing countries. Agricultural development is more than only growth in agricultural production or productivity. However, it is argued in the paper that other variables which also indicate agricultural development are often closely correlated with growth in production and productivity. Trade in agricultural products is not always an engine for agricultural development. If internal divergences are not accounted for by appropriate domestic policies, trade may be even harmful to agricultural development. Hence, empirical research based on cross-country analysis does not provide a clear answer about the role of trade for development. Past policies in industrialized countries have most likely had a negative effect on developing countries as a group; however, the effects differ widely across countries. Liberalization policies in industrialized countries would not just reverse these negative effects for developing countries. Price reduction in industrialized countries may not result in the often-cited production decline in the short term. Present X-inefficiency in agriculture will be reduced by liberalization, leading to an outward shift of the supply curve. Hence, liberalization may not lead to higher world market prices for temperate-zone products in the short and medium term. Apart from this, empirical models differ widely in the price effects they predict. The expected outcome of the Uruguay Round – increased regulation of domestic policies – is likely both more negative for developing countries than past protectionist policies and worse than an overall liberalization. World market prices will increase, uncertainty and instability can be expected to grow, and food aid may become less available. There will be a need to react to these challenges with measures on the international and national level. Initiatives to deal with food crises in developing countries and to stimulate liberalization in developing countries should be considered. Finally, developing countries should be made aware that their own domestic policies have a much greater economic impact than policies in other countries, even if the latter are as protectionist as current agricultural policies in the industrialized world.     

Gendered impacts of fertilizer subsidy removal programs in Malawi and Cameroon

Gladwin's^** main contention is that women provide most of the agricultural labor in sub-Saharan Africa and because much of this labor is oriented to food production for home consumption, the effects of structural adjustment programs on them and the children they work to feed are likely to be different than on men who produce crops for commercial and export production. Her specific hypothesis for Malawi is that the removal of the fertilizer subsidy affects women farmers more than men farmers because it reduces fertilizer use on local maize. As part of the structural adjustment program, a major purpose of removing the fertilizer subsidy is to reallocate resources from food production for domestic consumption to cash crop production for export. In Gladwin's analysis, men farmers produce hybrid maize and tobacco for export and women produce the subsistence food crop, local maize. Gladwin's main contention is probably correct. For the Malawi case, the presentation does not support the hypothesis because two of the major underlying assumptions are inappropriate and the evidence provided is inconclusive. This comment proceeds by discussing the two assumptions and corresponding evidence. The purpose of this comment is not to contradict the hypothesis, but to clarify the Malawi situation and to suggest that a different analytical approach is needed in that context.     

深化对粮食安全问题的认识

粮食是国民经济战略物资,是基础性公共产品,是全体社会成员的必需商品,涉及千家万户,而且具有经济、社会、文化、生态等多种功能.粮食生产和消费的重大变化容易引发大的波动,带来连锁反应.近年来,国内外粮食供求关系偏紧,粮价总体持续上涨,引起了人们极大关注.保证粮食安全,应在深刻认识影响粮食生产和供求的自然、社会和政策、人为因素及其变化的基础上,坚持自给为主、进口为辅,宏观调控与市场调节相结合,依靠科技进步,面向国内国际两个市场、两种资源,不断完善惠农政策和增加农民收入等原则.     

Agricultural price distortions: trends and volatility,past, and prospective

Historically, earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro‐urban bias in own‐country policies, as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduced global economic welfare and agricultural trade, and added to global inequality and poverty. Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in reducing agricultural protection in high‐income countries and agricultural disincentives in developing countries. However, plenty of price distortions remain. As well, the propensity of governments to insulate their domestic food market from fluctuations in international prices has not waned. Such insulation contributes to the amplification of international food price fluctuations, yet it does little to advance national food security when food‐importing and food‐exporting countries equally engage in insulating behavior. Thus there is still much scope to improve global economic welfare via multilateral agreement not only to remove remaining trade distortions but also to desist from varying trade barriers when international food prices gyrate. This article summarizes indicators of trends and fluctuations in farm trade barriers before examining unilateral or multilateral trade arrangements, together with complementary domestic measures, that could lead to better global food security outcomes.     

新疆小麦生产效率及地区差异研究

新疆是我国西北重要的小麦优势产区和消费区,小麦消费总量和人均消费量都高于全国平均水平,小麦的有效生产与供给对保证全疆粮食供需平衡和区域粮食安全起着至关重要的作用。小麦作为新疆的第一大粮食作物,成本收益决定了其在农业生产中的比较优势。为提高新疆小麦的生产效益和效率,促进小麦的可持续发展,提高农民种植小麦的积极性和新疆粮食安全,文章利用2004~2013年新疆小麦生产成本收益数据,分析了新疆小麦成本收益变化趋势,对新疆小麦生产的单要素生产率进行分析,运用DEA模型对新疆小麦生产效率进行分析,并对新疆小麦全要素生产率增长进行了收敛检验。结果表明:新疆小麦的生产成本总体上呈上升趋势,成本收益率呈波动下降趋势;小麦生产的全要素生产率总体较高,技术进步是小麦生产效率增长的源泉,技术效率不高阻碍了小麦生产效率的提高;各地区间的小麦生产效率存在差异,但存在显著的绝对收敛和条件收敛,存在地区间的追赶效应。综上所述,提出了提高新疆小麦生产效率的建议,依靠科技进步和人才培养推动农业科技创新,加大良种繁育体系建设,在小麦新品种的研发和栽培技术上创新和突破。结合新疆不同地区土地资源生态特点、环境条件和气候特点,科学地指导生产,提高小麦产量。     

Domestically produced food: Consumer perceptions of origin, safety and the issue of trust

It is becoming increasingly difficult for the public to attempt to assess risks using traditional methods such as smell, taste or other physical attributes of food. The existence of extrinsic cues such as the country of origin (COO) of food can help to make food purchase decisions easier for consumers. However, the use of extrinsic cues depends heavily on the extent to which consumers trust such signals to be indicative of quality or safety, which in turn depends on the credibility behind that cue. This paper aims to examine consumers association of domestically produced food with increased food safety standards and the association of COO and food safety information with socio-demographics and other aspects of consumer psychology such as attitudes, risk perception and trust. Using an ordered probit model, domestic production is examined as an extrinsic cue for food safety by looking at the relationship with trust in food safety information provided by national food standards agencies (NFSAs) and other socio-demographic characteristics, based on nationally representative data from 2725 face-to-face interviews across five European countries. Results suggest that domestic production of food is an extrinsic cue for food safety and as consumers place increasing importance on food safety they are more interested in food produced in their own country. This, coupled with consumer trust in a strong, and independent national food standards agency, suggests the potential exists for the increased consumption of domestically produced foods.     

Critical issues suggested by trends in food,population, and the environment to the year 2020

This article reviews the emerging trends in global food supply and demand up to 2020, and discusses policy challenges and obstacles to meeting this demand. Data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (Rosegrant et al.). The country-specific data pertains to 37 countries and regions and 17 food commodities and prices in the world market. Cereal prices are expected to decline by about 11% by 2020; meat prices may decline by 6%. After 2010, cereal prices are expected to dramatically decline. Cereal demand will change with changes in income and urbanization. Maize and coarse grains will be replaced by wheat and rice. Life style changes may lead to a switch from rice to wheat. Growth in food consumption in developed countries will slow. A projected 82% of growth in global cereal consumption and almost 90% of increased global meat demand will occur in developing countries during 1993-2020. Asia alone will account for 48% of increased cereal consumption and 61% of increased meat consumption. 88% of food production growth will occur in developing countries through increased yields and 94% in developed countries. World trade in cereals will increase from an estimated 185 million metric tons annually to 328 million during 1993-2020. Food security for the poor and child malnutrition will remain unimproved. Yield growth is affected by agricultural research, fertilizer and energy use, land degradation, water scarcity, and bad policy. Water scarcity is the most limiting on yield growth. Malnutrition problems present multiple challenges.