AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE: COMMENT

Bardsley and Harris (1987) test empirically the effects of changes In deterministic wealth and random income on the measure partial risk aversion. The paper, which is otherwise well written, failed to impose the relationship between the two effects and estimated them independently. Consequently, inconsistent estimates were derived for the elasticities of the measure of partial risk aversion with respect to wealth and to income. The purpose of this comment is to derive that relationship theoretically and to point out the resulting inconsistencies in the original paper.     

RISK PERCEPTION AND THE ANALYSIS OF RISK ATTITUDES*

Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE SUPPLY AND MARKETING OF APPLES IN NOVA SCOTIA*

The supply of apples in Nova Scotia is disaggregated in two dimensions: by variety–namely, fresh, processing, and dual purpose apples and by number of bearing trees and yield per tree. Using regression techniques, price distributed lags explained tree planting decisions. Market variables and climatic factors such as frost, sunshine, and wind explained yield. Simulation studies indicate (I) a relative stability in the population of apple trees, (2) a noticeable sensitivity of yield to climatic factors, especially wind in unfavorable cases and sunshine in favorable ones, and (3) that the buffering effect of dual purpose apples and the relative inelasticity of demand for processing apples both help maintain relative overall stability in the industry in the face of unpredictable climatic variations. On divisé?apprivisionmemenl des pommes de la Nouvelle Ecosse en deux: ?abord par varietés, la pomme de consommalion, la pomme industrielie, les pommes peuvent servir 1'un ou I'autre de ces fins et ensuiie par le nombre de pommiers et le rendement par arbre. Employant une technique regressive, ?on peut comprendre que le nombre de pommiers planter dépendent directement du prix des pommes sur le marché. Par variations dans le marché et les conditions climatiques telle que le gel, ?énsoleillement el le vent expliquent le rendement. Des études controlées nous indique: 1. Une stabilityé relative dans le nombre des pommiers 2. Une variation marquée suivant les conditions climatiques, spéciallemenl le vent, (condition infavourablejet lesoleil(conditionfavorable) 3. Que I'effet amortissônt des pommes a double fins et ?inélasticicité de la demande pour les pommes preparées a la consommalion aident à maintenir une certaine stabilityé dans cette Industrie aux prises avec les changements climatiques imprévisibles     

A MICRO-ECONOMIC APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN BRITISH AGRICULTURE

Most of the work undertaken on the estimation of supply response in U. K. agriculture has been based on the analysis of time-series data. However, there are a number of problems associated with an analysis of aggregate supply response for British agriculture based on time-series analysis alone. This paper reports on an alternative supply response model being developed at Newcastle in which estimates of aggregate supply levels are built up from optimal programmes for a set of representative farms.     

AN INTEGRATED ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE CANADIAN LIVESTOCK-FEED SECTOR*

Canadian econometric studies dealing with the livestock-feed sector have tended to concentrate on individual commodities, or on a particular component of the market equilibrium process. In this article an integrated model of the sector is presented which depicts the nature of commodity interactions both at the consumer level and the producer level. The feed sector was conceptualized primarily in terms of derived demand. The model contained a total of 82 equations, of which 64 were related to the livestock subsystem. The estimated model was subsequently used for predicting the impact of changes in selected instrumental variables on the livestock-feed sector.
Les dernières etudes économétriques canadiennes traitant du pâturage se sont concentrées sur les produits séparés on sur un composé particulier répondant au besoin commercial. Cet article présents un modèle intégré du secteur montrant la nature des actions réciproques entrc les produits au niveau du consommateur et du producteur. Le secteur pâturage est expliqué en fonction de la demande. Le modèle contenait 82 équations, 64 desquelles se rapportaient àľélevage; par conséquent le modèle est employé pour prédire ľinfluence dans les pâturages de changements opérés sur les composants choisis.     

THE REPRESENTATION OF RISK IN ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF SUPPLY: SOME OBSERVATIONS

The high correlation between many of the measures used to represent risk in econometric models of supply is demonstrated. A case is made for a very simple measure, the moving range, to be used to represent risk in these models.     

浙江省农村土地流转模式初探

根据江苏省农村土地使用权流转的新特点,系统分析了委托经营制、股份经营制和互换制等几种土地流转模式,最后提出了若干完善和浙江省土地流转创新的对策与建议。     

STABILISATION AND RISK REDUCTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE*

Agricultural producers typically are faced with risk about the yields they will experience and the prices they will receive. Stabilisation schemes can spread risk and thereby reduce the risk faced by individual producers. The risk-reducing capacity of a scheme and the cost of risk reduction depend upon the design of the scheme. In particular, it is important to distinguish between risk and instability. A classification of scheme designs is presented to bring out the effects of various design types. Schemes for the wheat industry are given most attention.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY IN AGRICULTURE*

This paper is an outline only of a Ph.D. thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham. The paper proposes a socio-economic model of farm production with special emphasis placed on the role of management: formulates an econometric model, to represent the socio-economic model, in which the degree of managerial efficiency appears as a variable, and suggests means of interpretation of the econometric model to aid farm planning at the individual farm level.     

对福建省农业结构优化调整的探讨

通过对福建省改革开放以来农业结构调整成效和问题的分析,提出了粮食、经作、畜牧、林业、水产业结构优化调整的总体思路和具体实施重点,以及搞好农业结构优化调整的5项对策措施。     

THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The economic surplus of an industry is defined as the difference between its real product, and the real income accruing to it. The surplus from U.K. agriculture measured at 1964/65–66/67 prices is estimated to have risen by about 20 million per year in recent years. The absorption of this surplus by other sectors is identified and an approximate indication is given of the equivalent surpluses and deficits of other industry groups. The economic surplus from agriculture is transferred principally through changes in relative prices, the necessity of which tends to create an unavoidable minimum rate of inflation. There is an international equivalent of these transfers of real income through price changes, but without the institutional constraints on the market which in the domestic economy preserve some measure of equity in the distribution of income.     

AN ADAPTIVE CONTROL APPROACH TO AGRICULTURAL POLICY*

It is postulated that some issues of economic policy in general, and of Australian agricultural policy in particular, may be analysed in the framework of an adaptive control model. Policy making is characterized as a rational, sequential decision-making process under conditions of imperfect knowledge in which forthcoming information may be used to learn about the uncertain terms as decision periods pass. Emphasis is given to the linear-quadratic control problem. The paper provides a review of the formulation of a policy problem in the framework of an adaptive control model and of derived policy strategies. An illustrative example is reported.     

A SYSTEM APPROACH TO MODELLING SUPPLY EQUATIONS IN AGRICULTURE

A multinomial logit model is a useful approach in the study of the allocation of a fixed resource between alternative uses. Here a geometric mean form of the system is presented and a number of theoretical and empirical issues are explored. In particular, its performance is compared with the use of double logarithmic equations estimated separately. As an illustration of the methodology, an allocation model of UK cereals area is specified and estimated in both static and dynamic forms.     

RISK EVALUATION IN FARM PLANNING* A STATISTICAL APPROACH

Economic planning implies decision-making based on the comparison of alternative courses of action, viewed against a background (in the real world at any rate) of uncertainty and imperfect knowledge. Successful planning is thus heavily dependent on the reliability of prediction which lea & inevitably to the domain of probability theory and its application to planning models. In spite of the considerable attention given to the application of mathematical models in farm management research work in recent times⁽¹⁾ to⁽⁹⁾ and ⁽¹⁵⁾ there is stilla paucity of applied work with respect to evaluating the nature of risk associated with planning projects at the individual farm level. In addition, very little published data is available on either a regional or production-type basis that gives a clear understanding of the nature of probability distributions for planning variables. This paper formulates a simple model which can be used in practical planning exercises and also demonstrates that with a new generation of statistically-processed planning data the application of the classical concepts of probability to routine economic planning is both practicable and worthwhile.     

A PORTFOLIO MODEL FOR EVALUATING RISK IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS,WITH AN APPLICATION TO AGRICULTURE IN NIGER

After a literature review, a planning and project evaluation model is developed that includes both risk and profit considerations but avoids some weaknesses of other mean-variance models. Agricultural extension and project evaluation results of an application of this model are compared to those of the common profit-maximisation model. The two sets of results differ on the worth of intercropping, the relative merits of raising small ruminants and cattle, the likelihood of success of a major livestock development programme (which would benefit only wealthier farmers), the benefits of introducing labour-saving technologies, and the value of teaching/demonstration components in the projects being evaluated.     

AN OPTIMAL-CONTROL APPROACH TO STABILISING AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRICES*

In this paper, some aspects of the application of optimal-control techniques to wool industry price stabilisation are considered. It is not intended to provide a blueprint for the immediate adoption of optimal-control techniques in the management of wool price stablisation. Rather, the contribution is to the developmental and evaluative process involved in considering these techniques. A new econometric model of wool price and supply is also presented, since none of the existing models satisfied the requirements of the study.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE CANADIAN EGG MARKET

This paper analyzes the market forces - demand, supply, price and trade - operative in the Canadian egg market. Quarterly data for the period 1961–1973 (inclusive) was employed, and Three-Stage least squares procedure was applied to a 12-equation model. Eggs were found to have a very small (–.003) coefficient of direct price elasticity and a negative (–.267) coefficient of income elasticity. At supply level, lagged egg-feed price ratio had an inelastic coefficient. The model was used to forecast for 1974, and was found satisfactory.
Cette étude analyse les forces qui influencent Ie marché des œufs - la demande, l'approvisionnement, les prix et le commerce - au Canada. Les données trimestrielles couvrant la période de 1961 à 1973 (inclusif) fûrent basées sur le système du moindre carré en trois stages sur un modèle à 12 équations. II fut trouvé que les œufs donnent us très petit coefficient (– .003) d'élasticité de prix directe, ainsi qu'un coefficient négatif (–.267) d'élasticité de revenu. Au niveau d'approvisionnement, la proportion ceuf-nourriture retarded avait aussi un coefficient inelastique. Le modéle fut 'employ' pour les predictions de 1974, et fut trouvé satisfaisant.     

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY COMPOUND FEED SECTOR: AN APPLICATION TO FRANCE

This paper develops a model of the European Community compound feed sector capable of explaining demand for feed ingredients, and the output demand and prices for compound feeds. The adopted framework rests upon the use of duality theory to represent the optimising production decisions of compound feed firms. In addition, an appropriate methodology is suggested to capture the rapid expansion in the consumption of compound feeds in the European Community and their adoption by livestock producers. The model is then applied to the French compound-feed sector using annual time-series data stretching over the period 1962–1980.     

区域休闲农业旅游开发的风险评价——以浙江省为例

风险是区域休闲农业旅游开发不可回避与亟待探究的问题。为深化区域休闲农业旅游开发风险的认识与实践,研究以休闲农业旅游开发较为成熟的典型地浙江省为案例,运用数据包络与因子分析方法,在对区域休闲农业旅游开发当前效率与未来潜力进行评价与分析的基础上,借助合图法以效率与潜力为聚类指标,通过两者比较对浙江省休闲农业旅游开发风险进行整体分析和评价,并将其划分为休闲农业旅游低风险积极开发、较低风险适宜开发、一般风险适度开发和较高风险整合开发等4类区域。最后,总结浙江省休闲农业旅游开发风险特征为:(1)开发风险与区域经济发展水平和区位优势条件存在明显的相关关系;(2)区域间经济社会相关联系程度影响开发风险分布方向;(3)开发水平在空间上存在较强的收敛性特征,并从中提炼出明确区域休闲农业旅游开发方向、营造良好区域交流与合作环境和构建区域休闲农业旅游开发风险协同管理机制等开发风险规避策略。