华北平原农地利用变化及驱动力分析

[目的]农地资源是人类赖以生存、国民经济和社会发展的基础,随着我国城镇化和人口数量的不断扩张,人地矛盾日益显著。探讨农地利用的变化情况其驱动力对于促进农地的可持续利用及保障粮食安全具有十分的现实意义。[方法]文章以华北平原地区为例,在分析农地利用变化的基础上,选取驱动力指标,通过灰色关联法分析其关联程度。[结果]2004~2016年间华北平原农地利用程度变化率均大于0,农地利用程度综合指数和复种指数呈下降的趋势。影响华北平原农地变化的各个驱动力从大到小依次为:人口、城市化率、农业科学技术、年平均气温、GDP、日照时数、农业机械总动力和年降雨量。关联度介于0.65~0.85的有人口、城市化率、农业科学技术和年平均气温。人为因素是主要的驱动力。[结论]华北平原农地利用受各种驱动力指标的共同影响,今后应因地制宜,在自然因素不可控的基础上,加强人为因素的调控,保障农地利用的同时促进社会经济的协调发展。     

华北地区农业资源环境与经济增长协调性分析

[目的]现阶段资源环境问题依然是经济社会发展的短板,随着城乡建设进程的加快,农业资源环境问题凸显,探究农业资源环境与经济增长之间的耦合发展关系,对实现农业的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。[方法]通过构建华北地区农业资源环境与经济增长两个系统发展评价指标,采用熵值法和加权综合法评价2010—2016年该地区农业资源环境与经济发展水平,在此基础上构建耦合模型,深入探究华北地区农业资源环境与经济增长的协调性关系。[结果](1)2010—2016年华北地区农业经济评价分值整体呈上升趋势,由2010年的0.096提高到2016年0.847;农业资源环境的评价分值存在波动。2010—2016年两系统之间一直处于中等耦合阶段,耦合协调度由低度协调耦合最终过渡到高度协调耦合。(2)2010—2016年,华北地区各省、直辖市、自治区农业资源环境与农业经济增长两系统之间均处于中等耦合阶段。山西省和河北省两系统之间耦合协调度由低度协调耦合最终过渡到高度协调耦合,内蒙古由低度协调耦合过渡到中度协调耦合,北京市和天津市两系统均处于中度协调耦合阶段。[结论]华北地区农业资源环境与经济增长之间的耦合协调性表现良好的发展态势,但仍有较大发展空间,如何优化农业产业结构,促进农业资源环境与经济增长向更高水平耦合阶段发展依然是今后关注的问题。     

苏北平原农业资源调查及利用评价

[目的]为了推动苏北平原现代农业的发展,针对苏北平原农业资源进行调查,评价苏北平原农业资源的利用效率,为促进农业资源的可持续利用提供参考。[方法]文章以苏北平原农业资源为出发点,利用行政区的划分对各市农业资源展开调查,构建资源丰度指数模型对农业资源进行评价,采用层次分析法构建苏北平原农业资源利用评价指标体系,基于指标权重,构建可持续发展模型对农业资源作出评价。[结果]苏北平原农业资源的利用效率较高,各市的土地资源都较充足,水资源指数分析结果表明盐城市水资源最充足,而连云港市和宿迁市的水资源较为缺乏,其丰度指数分别为0.410 6和0.601 2。此外,各市水资源情况都存在不同程度的污染现象,而农村生活水平也有待提高。[结论]苏北平原农业资源利用效率较高,土地资源和水资源整体上都较充足,但存在水资源污染、明显的城市分配不均的现象,农村发展整体发展水平比较落后。对此,应该立足农业资源,改善生态环境,建设生态农业,加大农村建设力度,促进苏北农业健康协调地发展。     

Efficiency Wages, Deferred Payments, and Direct Incentives in Agriculture

Empirical evidence from agricultural labor markets is consistent with efficiency–wage theory and inconsistent with several alternative explanations. According to this theory, the higher wage or deferred payment (benefits) that direct–hire growers pay relative to that of farm labor contractors is an efficiency wage. Growers use this extra compensation to lower their monitoring expenses and reduce shirking by workers.     

华北地区休闲型农业园区空间分布特征及影响因素分析

［目的］近几年,华北地区休闲农业发展取得长足进展,研究其空间基本分布特征,剖析其发展影响因素,对把握其休闲农业分布现状,找准发展华北地区休闲农业关键入手点具有重要意义。［方法］以2012—2017年华北地区评定的680个休闲农业园区（企业）为样本,采用地理信息系统（GIS）对休闲型农业园区的空间分布特征进行简要分析,并利用层次分析法（AHP）探究华北地区休闲型农业发展的影响因素。［结果］（1）华北地区休闲型农业园区呈集聚分布,且集中分布程度极高,空间分布不均衡,主要集中分布在北京,其次为天津、河北、山西,内蒙古分布最少; （2）影响华北地区休闲型农业发展排名前3位的因素是公路密度、农林牧渔业总产值、城镇居民可支配收入; （3）目前城镇居民生活水平显著提高,游客消费水准已成为影响休闲型农业产业发展的重要要因素但并非决定性因子。［结论］休闲型农业是一个新产业,影响华北地区休闲农业发展的重要因素还是政府以及投资者,游客的可意愿度、经济能力已经不是休闲型农业产业发展的决定性因素。要发展休闲农业产业要从增加对投资者的政策导向以及增加园区（企业）的可到达性,将公路密度适当向郊区拓展入手。     

农业水价改革与农民承受能力研究

阐述我国农业水价改革的现状,分析水价改革后灌区运行情况,以河南省新乡市人民胜利渠农业水价改革为例,对北方灌区农业水价改革以后的运行情况以及农民对水价的承受能力进行了研究,对农业水价改革中有关供水成本的确定、农民承受能力、补偿办法提出了建议：完善基础设施建设,促进水价改革,确定供水的合理成本,充分考虑农民对水价的承受能力,确定合理的农业水价补偿办法。     

The restructuring of Italian agriculture and its impact upon capital–labour relations: Labour contracting and exploitation in the fresh fruit and vegetable supply chain of the Lazio Region,Central Italy

Labour contracting is anywhere on the rise globally, even in fully developed capitalist countries. Far from being an anomaly in the smooth everyday functioning of the economy, contractors are a crucial node in facilitating and ensuring global capital's control over local labour regimes. This article uses a global value chain perspective to investigate the re‐emergence of gangmasters and gang labour in the agricultural sector of Lazio, Central Italy. It analyses the fruit and vegetable supply chain formation and configuration in the Lazio Region with the aim of identifying the underlying processes leading to the creation of gangmasters by capital to have a cheap and disposable, especially migrant, labour force. It also intends to give a more nuanced understanding of labour contracting in this context.     

基于进化博弈的水利工程施工安全监督管理

为了探讨影响水利工程建设施工安全监督管理行为的因素,分析施工监督管理进化稳定策略,在水利工程建设监理单位和施工承包商具有有限理性的前提下,运用博弈论方法,构建了基于进化博弈的水利工程建设监理单位和施工承包商的博弈模型。对进化博弈稳定策略的分析结果表明:水利工程建设监理单位对水利工程建设施工安全监督管理的策略选择主要和严格监督管理成本与奖励、监督管理失误率、监督管理可能受到的惩罚等有关;施工承包商对水利工程严格施工的策略选择主要和严格施工成本与奖励、不严格施工可能受到的惩罚等有关;水利工程建设监理单位和施工承包商之间的进化博弈稳定策略与各影响因素的初始值有关。最后运用Matlab软件进行数值仿真,模拟博弈双方之间的动态博弈过程,并提出加强我国水利工程建设施工过程中安全监督管理的建议。     

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA

One of the problems of economic policy concerns the best use of the resources available to the nation, whether they are distributed in the best way between the sectors of production and whether they are used in an optimal way within each sector. Clearly this is a “productivity” problem. It is said that neither the distribution of resources between sectors, nor the use that is made of them within each sector is optimal either in Europe or North America. One of the most important examples is in agriculture, to which too much labour is allocated and sub-optimal use is made of the resources available. Thus agricultural productivity is low, and there are regional and international differences. To answer questions about the level of agricultural productivity it is necessary to have a method of measurement and on this there has been a lot of discussion. The object of this note is to define the optimal yardstick and to use it to estimate the differences in agricultural productivity between the countries in Eastern and Western Europe and North America.     

农业机械化发展及其服务外包的原因分析——源自冀豫鲁3省问卷调查数据的证明

[目的]在统计描述华北平原农民的机械采纳率和机械采纳方式的基础上,分析农民的机械化需求和农机手的机械服务供给行为及其内在逻辑,从理论和实证两个维度对华北平原地区农业机械技术的特殊实现形式——服务外包做出解释。[方法]运用描述性统计分析和成本收益核算等方法,利用冀豫鲁3省779个农户和45个农机手的实地调研数据分别对农业机械化发展的前提条件和实现方式做出解释。[结果]农业劳动力成本上升与农机购置成本下降,共同刺激了农民的机械技术需求,是华北平原农业机械化快速发展的前提条件;持有农业机械的农民基于理性选择而向其他农民提供农机作业服务,是推动华北平原农业机械化以服务形式实现的主要原因。[结论]相关部门应继续探索高效的农机补贴模式,刺激农民的机械技术需求;农业机械支持政策可适当向农机合作社倾斜,提高农机手的组织化程度和服务数量与质量。     

工程延误慎言“罚”

针对工程合同条款中经常出现的发包人对承包商误期违约“罚款”条款，分析了罚款、惩罚性赔偿和惩罚性违约金的法律性质，认为在合同中约定罚款难以得到法律的保护，只有在合同中清晰、准确地约定误期违约责任的性质，发包人才能快速获得赔偿，避免发生争议。     

Trajectories of large-scale land acquisition dynamics in Angola: Diversity,histories, and implications for the political economy of development in Africa

Numerous large scale land acquisitions have occurred in Angola since partial political and economic liberalization in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and further increased after 2002 and the end of armed conflict. They have occurred in conjunction with the emergence of a range of large state-coordinated agricultural projects, often by foreign contractors, for domestic food, and involving plans for backwards and forwards linkages to agro-processing and manufacturing initiatives. Altogether such land allocations and projects involve several billion dollars and several million hectares. These activities appear to often also involve high-level officials and/or wealthy Angolans and are often interpreted as neo-patrimonialism, state-sanctioned private accumulation, and instances of continuity in extractive institutions. Yet examining specific agrarian transformations illustrates how land and rural poverty in Angola are much more complex than a zero-sum game of elite accumulation of private land concessions. Key are Angola’s geo-historical trajectories of colonialism, war, socialism and liberalization, which the article examines in two concessions in Malanje Province We address the relationships between international enterprises and domestic elites, and the relevance of land dynamics within a long-term political economy perspective on capitalist industrialization and structural transformation in Angola and Africa.     

Developing Country Interests in Agricultural Trade Reform

This paper examines whether developing countries, as a group, would be better off in the absence of agricultural protection in the industrial North and, if so, whether they should support reforms negotiated between the major players in the Uruguay Round. Results from the Tyers-Anderson GLS model of world food markets suggest that the net effect of industrial country agricultural protection is beneficial to developing countries, though by only a small margin, even if its removal were to stimulate accelerated technical change in developing countries. The same is found to be true of partial reforms which are more palatable politically, such as quotas to reduce oversupply in the EC. Of course, many developing countries, including those which are members of the Cairns Group, are badly hurt by protection in the North. Unfortunately, however, they and the other members of that group stand to gain comparatively little from the reduction of oversupply in the EC through quotas.     

基于二元边际和贸易关系的中国农产品出口动态研究

[目的]文章基于动态的视角,测度中国农产品出口的贸易关系和二元边际变化,对农产品出口整体情况以及出口源地维度和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行研究。[方法]基于2000—2016年中国海关贸易库数据,测算出口贸易关系、贸易二元边际和区位基尼系数,对农产品出口动态的整体情况及其在出口源地和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行描述,并进行聚类分析。[结果]（1）从出口动态整体情况看,农产品出口增长迅速,集约边际占据主导,贸易关系“大进大出”。（2）从时空演化格局看,在出口源地维度,东部省份出口优势明显,空间格局高度集中,近年来集聚程度有所下降。（3）在出口目的国维度,东亚、东南亚、北美是主要的出口目的地和出口扩展地,集聚水平长期下降,原因是出口格局由“一超”变“多强”且中国出口到了更多的国家。（4）当同时考虑两个维度时,中国城市的出口扩展结构高度相似,绝大多数城市的扩展边际的贸易在全球分布相对均匀,东亚和东南亚为主要的出口扩展市场。[结论]为了保障农产品出口的稳定增长,既要努力维护贸易关系、实现集约边际增长,也要积极扩展新贸易联系;为了优化农产品出口格局,要推进中西部地区因地制宜挖掘特色农产品、开拓新...     

基于DEA模型的山东省农地利用经济效益分析

山东省农地面积较广,利用类型丰富,农地的合理利用对推进山东省农业经济发展及土地资源的可持续发展具有重要意义。文章阐述了山东省农地利用状况,从自然因素、土地投入、农业土地利用结构、农业从业人员素质、农产品市场意识及经营手段等方面探讨影响农地利用经济效益的因素,通过构建DEA模型,对农地利用经济效益进行应用分析,并提出加大农业用地投入和建设、优化农业用地结构和规模、强化市场经营意识和管理等提高山东省农地利用经济效益的对策建议,以期为山东省土地合理规划利用提供理论依据。     

Chinese contractor involvement in wildlife protection in Africa: Case study of Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway Project,Kenya

As their sales of projects in Africa increase at a high annual growth rate, Chinese contractors are encountering new challenges regarding wildlife protection during project construction. Using the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway project constructed by the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) as a case study, we researched how the CRBC involves itself in wildlife protection throughout the project. The results state that, although the CRBC's efforts show its commitment to wildlife protection, its overall involvement in this domain is far from successful. Chinese contractors need to improve their effort regarding wildlife protection for future projects.     

Dynamics of Harvest Subcontracting: The Roles Played by Labour Contractors

A historical perspective of three export agro‐industries in Argentina (lemons, sweet citrus and tobacco) illustrates the range of factors that may foster subcontracting and the choice of subcontracting modalities. The case studies also illustrate that subcontracting is often a fragile strategy that leads to the eventual reabsorption of subcontracted tasks. We argue that the fragility of subcontracting the harvest rests on the inability of producers and labour contractors to negotiate a relationship that favours collaboration and problem solving. This failure is at the root of the high transaction costs of harvest subcontracting that force producers to resort to ancillary investments or sanctions, or to reabsorb some or all of the delegated tasks. A mismatch of resources and technical competence between producers and harvest labour contractors also contributes to inadequate performance of services. It is thus not surprising that harvest labour contractors are not always permanent fixtures; they may appear, disappear and reappear, particularly in fresh fruit export industries.     

农业资源禀赋的地区差异与农业FDI的区位选择——基于中国省际数据的实证研究

本文采用PanelData模型和中国农业FDI的省际数据,对农业资源禀赋的地区差异与农业FDI的区位选择的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,农业资源非均衡分布,尤其是农业自然资源的地区差异,是导致农,2kFDI地区分布差异的根本原因。农,2kFDI一般都定位于农业自然资源丰裕的地区,然而当外商过度集中于这些地区时,可利用资源数量将会减少,获取资源的成本也会增加,进而诱发农,_lkFDI的空间转移。这可以在很大程度上解释农＆FDI为什么会从东部扩散到中部、由南方转移到北方的原因。农业外资政策制定的关键是合理引导外商投资与区域农业资源合理匹配,以促进跨国公司参与农业的积极影响。     

农业水价综合改革的利益相关者分析

通过对我国农业水价改革的历程进行梳理,并基于利益相关者理论,将农业水价综合改革中所涉及的利益主体划分为农业水价影响者、农业水价承担者、农业水价执行者以及农田水利设施管理者四类,并分析四者的权力与利益,从而理清农业水价综合改革相关利益者之间的内在关系。提出农业水价影响者通过改善改革环境可以提高农业水价承担者缴费的配合度,双方的合作有助于实现双方利益的优化。农业水价执行者以及农田水利设施管理者的运营效率对农业水价影响者与农业水价承担者的利益具有重要的调节作用,但二者的运营效率均需要一定的资金支撑。最后就我国农业水价综合改革提出合理建议。     

The attitude of grassland farmers towards nature conservation and agri-environment measures—A survey-based analysis

Grasslands have a multi-layer protection function for nature, biodiversity and climate. These functions can be fostered by an adapted management on grassland farms. Promoting nature protection alongside agricultural production is an aim of European agricultural policy. However, a number of studies indicate that existing Agri-environment measures (AEM) are not as effective as assumed, mainly because they are not sufficiently used by farmers. We investigated the view of grassland farmers on nature conservation and on existing AEM in four distinct regions on a west to east gradient in the North German Plain. We conducted a survey on 82 grassland farms inquiring basic farm data and asking questions on general agricultural issues and nature protection. The results indicate that the majority of all respondents is generally interested in nature conservation and believes it to be of concern for every farmer. In contrast, only a minority of grassland farmers is using the existing AEM to the full extend on their own farm. By applying the concept of farming styles, we classified farmers into four groups, namely Traditionalist, Idealist, Modernist, and Yield Optimizer. These farming styles groups differ in farm and management parameters, general attitudes towards agricultural issues, farming objectives and economic success. We found that in our survey the farming styles groups differ in their attitude towards nature conservation. However, they do not differ in the adoption of AEM and have different reasons for not taking part. We state that for a better implementation of AEM into agricultural practice a better communication, which is adapted to the different ways that farmers manage their farm and think and feel, is needed. Consequently, AEM need to be revised as well.