GUARANTEE THRESHOLDS AND THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

In recent years an important development in the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community has been the acceptance of the principle that the price guarantees can no longer be unlimited in nature, and that, if production exceeds a certain level, action should be taken to ensure that producers share in the responsibility for additional production. In 1981 the term ‘guarantee threshold’ was introduced to denote this level of production. Different mechanisms have been introduced in the various market regulations to give effect to the guarantee thresholds, and it is necessary for policy makers to realise that these mechanisms have different economic consequences. The case of milk is particularly instructive, for here the European Community in 1984 made a radical change by switching from the mechanism of reducing price support, if the guarantee threshold is exceeded, to a system of quotas for milk deliveries. Guarantee thresholds also exist for other products (cereals, processed fruit and vegetables, oilseeds) and in other cases there are analogous measures (sugar, wine, fruit in syrup, cotton). In the future development of the CAP, guarantee thresholds will continue to play an important role. How far can the Community expect to succeed in controlling its agricultural production by price or quantitative action, and what accompanying measures will be necessary?     

IMPACTS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON INTERNATIONAL WHEAT PRICES

The emergence of the EC as a major exporter of cereals in the 1980s and the escalation of international agricultural trade confrontations emphasize the importance of understanding the effects of EC policy actions. Several important features of the EC wheat market are incorporated in an analytical and empirical model including imperfect substitutability in demand between imports and domestic supplies, the simultaneous import and export of wheat by the EC, the distinct impact of threshold versus intervention policy prices, MCAs, and the imperfect transmission between market and intervention prices. Results indicate that EC policies have a smaller impact on world price than found in previous studies.     

SOME DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS FOR THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

This paper begins with a summary of the current state of Community financing of the Common Agricultural Policy. A brief survey of the currently discussed options for change leads to the conclusion that feasible developments will involve extension of the use of existing instruments rather than wholesale reform. If agreement on such extensions cannot be reached, there is likely to be unplanned nationalisation of agricultural support expenditures. The economic impacts of three measures to cope with surplus production using existing policy instruments-price reductions, co-responsibility levies and supplementary levies-are analysed, as is a possible budgetary solution to the surplus problem-surplus contributions. The paper concludes with some remarks about the desirability of these various development options and the role of economists in the debate about CAP reform.     

THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALIAN AGRICULTURE

The relative importance of Italian agriculture in the EC, both in terms of net value added and of employment, has never been matched by a comparable impact on the CAP policymaking process. Mediterranean agricultural products in particular have been less favoured by the overwhelming common policy instrument of product price support, which has also a negative impact on the economy as a whole. The most relevant effects of the CAP are reviewed: the impact on resource allocation, including international income transfers, and the effects on the environment, as well as the effects on interpersonal income distribution. An evaluation of CAP is then made from different points of view: the likely perspective of present Italian farmers, a national perspective and an overall perspective, including the interests of non EC countries and future generations. Lower and more balanced price support, together with higher concern for structural and environmental policies especially in less favoured areas, are advocated.     

UK GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE—IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT UNDER THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

The change in government expenditure which accompanies change in agricultural land use and output is an important parameter in current policy decisions. This change is estimated in this paper using a simple accounting model which recognises the diversity of support schemes in operation and the interaction between them. Use of the model is illustrated by estimating the effects of changes in beef, sheepmeat and cereals output under alternative assumptions about market conditions, yield levels and land classes affected. The paper concludes by discussing other ways in which the model might be used.     

A QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

Several farm sector econometric models are reviewed initially and the aggregation problem highlighted. A thirty-equation model of the Australian agricultural sector is specified in which farm output, stocks and exports and the domestic demand for farm products are endogenous, as well as farm, export and retail prices. Disaggregation is into food and non-food components of unprocessed output, and the processing of food is traced through to final demand. The model is estimated by a modified 2SLS procedure using quarterly data covering the period 1960-1970.     

ISSUES OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Growth in agricultural productivity and the stimulus of price supports have led to overproduction in Western Europe: in particular, the European Community has become a smaller importer and even a major exporter of several products. But as prices in the EC are usually above world levels, this requires expensive subsidisation and leads to trade conflicts. Adjustments now forced on the CAP mean a greater cost-price squeeze, besides imposing quotas on the dairy sector. Policy aims relating to farm incomes and to market balance have thus become very difficult to reconcile. Future policy will also have to take more account of the impact of farming on the environment and of the role of agricultural activity in rural communities. Are there policy instruments, such as direct aids, which can help to achieve such diverse goals? What are the implications of changing circumstances for farming systems, and in particular can low-input systems offer an alternative to the ‘productivist’ farming model?     

IN SEARCH OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY'S ‘AGRICULTURAL COMMUNITY’

Although some aspects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) are intended to improve the welfare of European society in general, its income support objective is aimed specifically at the ‘agricultural community’. This community has never been defined precisely. In consequence, it is difficult to assess the success of the CAP. Alternative ways of defining the agricultural community are considered and their implications for policy discussed. Existing data sources are used to illustrate the numbers of households and household members which various definitions produce.     

A SYNTHETIC MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY

Over the past twenty-five years there have been important theoretical developments in the supply literature. Each has examined the likely impact on supply of introducing doses of realism into the standard neoclassical model. These have been administered for the most part independently, with the consequence that, though each has illuminated a single aspect of supply, no overall perspective has emerged. This essay seeks to provide a coherent and comprehensive framework of analysis and develops an estimatable model of supply within this framework.     

日本农业支持政策的最新趋势及启示

二战以来,日本农业分别经历了农业社会、工业化时代和全球化时代3个阶段的发展和变迁,其经验和教训对于中国农业发展具有一定的启示。研究对日本农业支持政策的演变及动向、特征与发展趋势以及目标机制和运作方式等方面进行了分析和探讨,结果显示:日本农业的变革涉及法律约束力、经营规模、农业贸易政策和国内支持等各个方面;日本农业的发展依赖于财政补贴,虽然其补贴强度呈下降趋势,但日本农业国内支持政策对保障农民收入、提高农产品竞争力仍具有重要作用。依据日本经验和教训提炼出的启示主要有:农户组织化经营要有计划地组织引导;农业经营规模的扩大要有序推动;农业剩余劳动力的就地消化要下大力气推动;国内支持政策应尽可能由纳税人负担。最后需要说明的是,降低农业支持水平与规模扩大的关系要根据实际情况合理辩证地处理。     

荷兰农业绿色转型经验与政策启示

[目的]与我国的农业资源禀赋条件相似,荷兰人多地少,农业资源贫乏,却是世界农业强国,其20世纪80年代开始的农业转型之路对促进我国当前农业绿色发展具有重要借鉴意义。[方法]结合实地调研与文献研究,文章梳理了荷兰40年来在农业环境治理方面的具体政策设计和实施效果,并分析了其主要经验做法及对我国发展的启示。[结果]从畜禽养殖数量控制到化学投入品控制、再到农业资源全管理,荷兰始终坚持以种养结合的可持续发展模式应对农业资源环境挑战,不断强化循环利用技术推广应用,逐步建立了严格的农业资源环境监管体系和政府支持体系,在农业污染得到有效治理的同时,依然很好地保持了国际市场竞争力。[结论]荷兰曾经面对的养殖业污染、化学品过度投入等问题也是我国当前农业环境的突出问题,其当时采取的转型思路与我们目前的绿色发展理念高度一致,借鉴荷兰经验,加快推进我国农业绿色发展,亟需创新循环农业发展模式,加强绿色发展技术支撑,建立并完善农业绿色发展制度体系,协同推进农业资源环境保护和农业竞争力提升。     

FARM CREDIT POLICY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT*

This paper discusses the farm credit policies pursued by governments in low-income countries. It is argued that, in the early stages of development, peasant attitudes to debt are such that cheap credit is unlikely to be a useful growth stimulus. It is shown that the effectiveness of credit depends on the ability and willingness of the peasants to devote such additional funds to productive uses. The poor performance of many government rural credit programmes in low-income countries is discussed and criteria for a successful programme are presented.     

THE USE OF A DECISION MAKER'S UTILITY FUNCTION IN A LINEAR PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY*

A decision theoretic approach to agricultural policy decision making is examined to discover whether a utility function of an Australian Wool Corporation decision maker can be established and, if so, whether this can be used to improve the policy analysing performance of an agricultural sector linear programming model. After discussing the theoretical requirements of the utility function elicitation and the elicitation procedures, the characteristics of the resulting functions are examined. A means for its inclusion in a linear programming framework is described and some analysis of policy is carried out. The general conclusions are that the relevance of the agricultural sector analysis is enhanced by the use of such a utility function.