A New Zealand failure prediction model: Development and international implications

In this study we develop a failure prediction model for New Zealand listed companies and theorise on the usefulness and international implications of the results. In developing the model, we obtained data from 60 failing and 60 matched non failing New Zealand listed companies, providing an unusually rich database for model development. Binary logistic regression (logit) was applied on 21 potentially significant variables. The predictive strength was tested using holdout tests, with support from applications to more recent company data. Multicollinearity was minimised through a theoretically informed selection of variables, the Pearson correlation and stepwise regression. The resulting model is significant to 91.7% overall, which tested well for prediction and non-multicollinearity, and reveals a unique combination of variables. We conclude by considering the research implications of small-market model development, and the benefits of local, contextually-based models as evidenced by the results of this study.     

The effect of legislation on corporate disclosure practices

This article investigates the effect of the Financial Reporting Act of 1993 (FRA) on mandatory disclosure practices of companies listed on the New Zealand Exchange Limited. The FRA gave statutory backing to financial reporting standards in New Zealand and made non-compliance illegal. Using both univariate and multivariate analyses, we examine the association between (a) the levels of compliance with mandatory disclosure by the companies in our sample, and (b) disclosure regulatory regimes that prevailed in New Zealand before and after the implementation of the FRA. We find that mean corporate disclosure compliance levels in the periods after the enactment of the FRA are significantly higher than those in the periods before the enactment of the legislation. After controlling for the effects of other mandatory disclosure-related variables documented in prior studies, we also find that the improvement in corporate disclosure compliance behaviour is the result of the implementation of the FRA. Alternative specifications of the primary regression model indicate that those findings are robust.     

Derivatives Use, Corporate Governance, and Legislative Change: An Empirical Analysis of New Zealand Listed Companies

Abstract:   This paper examines if board composition has any systematic bearing on derivatives usage by New Zealand listed companies. We also test if derivative usage changed following the introduction of the new 1993 Companies Act. The Act raised expectations of directors' fiduciary responsibilities and the perceived risk of liability on outside directors for poor investment decisions. Using a dataset of listed New Zealand companies in 1994 and 1997, we find companies with higher growth opportunities and a greater proportion of outside directors were less likely to use financial derivatives following the introduction of the new Act. Our results supplement the US‐based literature on derivatives usage by illustrating that internal governance mechanisms can play a role in corporate derivatives policy, and that the legislative and regulatory environment may affect this role.     

VOLUNTARY DISCLOSURE OF FINANCIAL SEGMENT DATA: NEW ZEALAND EVIDENCE

This paper reports on the voluntary financial disclosure of segment data by New Zealand companies and relates the extent of quantified segment disclosure to firm-specific characteristics. The extent of voluntary segment disclosure varies across a sample of 29 firms listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange. The extent of quantified segment disclosure is significantly related to firm size, financial leverage, but not to assets in place, earnings volatility or a the importance of foreign funding to the firm.     

Economic incentives for the voluntary disclosure of current cost financial statements

This study examines why some New Zealand listed companies voluntarily present current cost financial statements. The results suggest that tax and political cost considerations are influential in the voluntary disclosure of current cost information.     

The relationship between capital structure and product markets: evidence from New Zealand

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the capital structure of New Zealand firms influences their product-market performance in the period from 1984 to 2008. Our main findings are that the use of leverage by publicly listed New Zealand companies leads to an increase in relative-to-industry sales growth, but a decrease in relative-to-industry return on assets (ROA). We also conduct a reverse causality test by examining whether sales growth and ROA influence leverage. We find no evidence that sales growth has an impact on the use of debt, but significant evidence that ROA is negatively correlated with its use. Our results suggest that New Zealand firms use debt to compete more aggressively in their product markets, even though this strategy comes at a cost of lower relative-to-industry profitability. A possible explanation for this behavior is the more competitive trading environment that has developed in New Zealand over the last 25 years.     

The predictive ability of entity-wide geographic sales disclosures: IAS 14R versus IFRS 8

This report examines the predictive value of geographic revenue disclosures under IFRS 8 in forecasting company revenues using four forecast models. The findings show that the predictive accuracy of IFRS 8 entity-wide geographic sales significantly outperform consolidated sales in forecasting consolidated sales one year out. The results indicate that the predictive ability of country specific entity wide geographic sales improves on average by six percent when geographic sales are reported for country of domicile or by each individually material country. The study also finds that geographic sales disclosures by companies located in countries with high and moderate enforcement regimes improve the predictive accuracy of geographic sales by five percent. These results provide evidence that the disclosure of finer geographic sales data is more decision useful and associated with improved predictive accuracy for large listed companies in Europe, Australia and New Zealand.     

Forecasting New Zealand Corporate Failures 2001–10: Opportunity Lost?

On‐going business success is not a ‘given’ and business failure is reasonably common. Such failures include 36 listed companies in New Zealand (2001–10), which, in liquidating, incurred losses for many small stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether these failures could have been anticipated from public information available at the time. Of the 36 failing companies, 25 are matched to 25 non‐failing New Zealand and Australian companies. Financial and audit report data are obtained for the three years prior to failure, yielding 150 sets of data. Ten ratios, three failure‐prediction models and three nominal indicators, which were all available at the time, are applied to the data. News reports and media are reviewed. Findings reveal that while no specific forecasts of failure are publicised through mainstream New Zealand media, significant differences between failing and non‐failing firms do exist: 75% of the tested indicators show or approach significance in one or more of the three years prior to failure. Indications increase where data for all three years is combined. Conclusions are that problems could have been signalled and published, providing stakeholders bases for enquiry. Implications are as to a failure of public accountability in this respect, how practice and policy could address this problem, and suggestions for further research.     

ANNUAL REPORT RESOURCE COMMITMENT AND DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS IN AUSTRALASIA

In April 1978 a mail questionnaire was administered to 1230 Australian and 215 New Zealand public companies to solicit annual report resource commitment and distribution patterns. Summarized responses indicate that Australian annual reports for year ended 1977 cost A$2.98 per copy on average to produce and mail, while New Zealand reports for the same period cost NZ$2.50. More than half of these costs is attributable to the printing component. Australian companies employed 99 manhours on average in the preparation and distribution of their reports, while New Zealand companies employed 130 manhours. Eighty percent of all reports distributed by Australian companies were sent to shareholders, while 70 percent of all reports distributed by New Zealand companies were sent to this group.     

ACCOUNTING DETERMINED AND MARKET DETERMNED RISK MEASURES: SOME TESTS OF ASSOCIATION AND PREDICTIVE ABILITY

This paper examines the degree of association between certain measures of risk that commonly feature in the accounting literature, and the β coefficient, the risk measure given by the capital asset pricing model. Tests were applied to a subset of New Zealand listed public company securities. A weak association was found. Tests of the predictive ability of an accounting based regression model showed that its performance was inferior to other commonly assumed predictive models.     

The Impact of the FMA Guidelines on Non‐GAAP Earnings Disclosures

In 2012 the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority (FMA) introduced guidelines for the disclosure of non‐GAAP financial information. This study investigates the effect of those guidelines on New Zealand listed companies. The findings show that, despite not being mandatory, these guidelines are modifying corporate disclosure behaviour. Companies have improved the way in which they disclose non‐GAAP earnings information and there has been a reduction in the emphasis given to non‐GAAP earnings compared with the emphasis given to audited statutory profit. However, the study also highlights areas for improvement, including the depth of explanation of non‐GAAP earnings calculations and adjustments, and concern about multiple adjusted earnings figures to explain performance.     

Audit Committee Members: What Goes on Behind Closed Doors?

Using a qualitative research paradigm, this study examines audit committee effectiveness from the perspective of audit committee members of New Zealand listed companies. The findings reveal that audit committee members perform a range of overlapping tasks and justify their existence in their audit committees by fulfilling the ‘expectations’ that are placed on them. Many quantitative research studies have examined the association between different dimensions of audit committee inputs and financial reporting outputs. The empirical evidence, however, is mixed and remains far from conclusive (Bédard and Gendron 2010). One of the primary reasons for the inconsistent findings is the lack of understanding of the actual process by which audit committees perform their responsibilities. Using a qualitative research paradigm, this study examines audit committee activities, processes and effectiveness from the perspective of audit committee members of New Zealand listed companies. The study argues that performing audit committee duties is an intended process, whereby audit committee members justify their actions and the effectiveness of their audit committees. The paper contributes to the limited literature on how audit committees operate and, by doing so, provides possible explanations for the inconsistent findings of the quantitative audit committee research. In particular, the paper invites further discussion on whether audit committee members can be (or should be assumed to be) independent when discharging their role of overseeing auditing and financial reporting‐related matters.     

AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE EXTENT AND NATURE OF BRAND VALUATION ACTIVITY IN NEW ZEALAND

An empirical study concerned with investigating the prevalence and nature of brand valuation activity in strongly-branded New Zealand based companies is reported. Analysis of data provided by 60 companies responding to a questionnaire mailed to all New Zealand companies identified as owning recognisable brand names revealed that 15 (25%) had been involved in brand valuation activity. Support for a hypothesised relationship between the acquisitive orientation of companies and the propensity to value brands has been provided. The extent to which brand valuation is conducted as an information service to management suggests that the financial accounting orientation that has characterised much of the brand valuation debate may be somewhat inappropriate.     

上市公司资本结构的影响因素实证研究——以宁波为例

资本结构对企业经营至关重要。本文选取宁波24家上市公司2007年到2010年的数据,构建面板数据模型对影响上市公司资本结构状况的主要内部因素进行实证分析,分析发现影响宁波上市公司资本结构的内部因素中,资产结构的影响最大,其次是资产流动性、盈利能力、公司规模,公司成长性的影响不是很显著。     

A comparative analysis of the Australian and New Zealand liquidation schemes

On September 28, 2022, Australia announced an inquiry into the effectiveness of its corporate insolvency laws. The Australia and New Zealand corporate insolvency frameworks have similar objectives and operate in a similar context where, as is the case the world over, most companies are small to medium enterprises. Despite liquidation being just one of several collective and formal corporate insolvency procedures, it is the most frequently occurring procedure in both countries by a large margin. The Australian and New Zealand liquidation schemes have many similarities but also some key differences. Differences include the structure of the respective schemes; the levers prompting liquidation of companies in appropriate circumstances; the role of creditors, the court and the regulator; and the management of low-value and assetless liquidations. These differences are analysed to determine what, if anything, the New Zealand scheme might contribute to development and/or reform of Australian corporate insolvency law. As consistency and coordination with Australian insolvency law is a New Zealand policy aim, the lessons the Australian scheme might have for New Zealand are also considered. Many of the points on which the Australian and New Zealand liquidation schemes differ are of universal concern (such as the management of low-value liquidations), meaning that the nature and success (or otherwise) of the Australian and New Zealand responses are of wider, comparative interest.     

上市公司超能力派现与公司治理结构的实证研究

本文选取2003～2005年沪市和深市的1748家上市公司为样本,研究我国上市公司超能力派现与公司治理结构之间的关系.研究发现,第三大股东持股比例与超能力派现正相关,监事会规模、资产负债率和净资产收益率与超能力派现负相关.第一大股东持股比例与超能力正相关没有通过显著性检验,反映我国前几大股东可能合谋实现超能力派现.我国迫切需要优化公司治理结构争完善法制来制止超能力派现的发生.     

INVESTMENT DECISION CRITERIA USED BY LISTED NEW ZEALAND COMPANIES

This paper reports the results of a survey of listed New Zealand firms with regard to their investment objectives, their methods of evaluating investment projects and of estimating appropriate hurdle rates, and methods used to evaluate and adjust for project risk differences. Comparisons with similar studies of firms located in the U.S. and Australia indicate that New Zealand firms use accepted normative financial analysis techniques to a much lesser degree than firms in these other countries. The relatively greater usage of accounting-based rather than market-based measures by New Zealand firms is particularly marked.     

Capital gains tax,managed funds and the value of dividends: The case of New Zealand

The taxation of capital gains for Managed Investment Funds in New Zealand was abolished in October 2007, putting these entities on a similar footing to private investors. Prior to this change most private investors were not taxed on capital gains from investments in New Zealand companies, whereas Managed Funds were taxed on these gains. New Zealand company dividends carry imputation tax credits and thus had a tax advantage for Managed Funds before October 2007. After the change the value of dividends relative to capital gains declined substantially for Managed Funds. The evidence is that the market value of the dividends, particularly for high dividends, also declined substantially subsequent to the tax change.     

KMV模型在我国商业银行信用风险管理中的适用性分析及实证检验

在介绍 KMV 模型、Credit Metrics 模型、Credit Risk+模型和 Credit Portfolio View 模型这四种国际流行的信用风险管理方法的基础上,基于定性和定量分析相结合,对这四种信用风险管理方法进行比较分析,认为 KMV 模型最适合我国目前的国情。以2013年45家 ST 公司和与之配对的45家非 ST 公司以及2014年20家 ST 公司和与之配对的20家非 ST 公司为样本,对样本的违约距离进行实证检验。实证结果表明 KMV 模型基本上能够识别上市公司的信用状况,但是也有一些企业的违约距离不符合实际情况,这也说明该模型在我国商业银行信用风险度量中的识别能力有限,究其原因可能与该模型所要求的一些假设条件在我国尚不能得到有效满足等因素有关。因此,我国商业银行在对债务企业进行信用评价时,综合利用KMV 模型与债务公司的财务数据会使信用风险的度量结果更加可靠。