香港人民币离岸市场发展对内地金融市场稳定的影响分析

中国人民银行与香港金融管理局签署修订<香港银行人民币业务的清算协议>后,人民币在兑换、转账、跨境结算等方面更加便利,香港人民币离岸市场规模迅速扩张.本文运用计量模型,对比分析了香港人民币离岸市场和成熟离岸金融市场波动对货币主权国的冲击影响.研究表明,目前香港人民币离岸市场处于市场初步形成阶段,其对内地金融市场的风险可控...     

世界离岸金融中心的地理分布、竞争态势及其启示

<正> 离岸金融市场又称欧洲货币市场,是在一种货币发行国以外进行该国货币存储和贷款的新型国际金融市场。60年代以来,作为国际金融市场结构性变革的离岸金融市场的形成和发展,不仅极大地促进了资本、生产国际化和金融全球一体化,而且也大大改变了全球国际金融中心的地理面貌和竞争格局,并深刻地影响了相当国家的经济发展和国际金融地位。     

论我国离岸金融市场的建立

论我国离岸金融市场的建立翁雷离岸金融市场是经营离岸银行业务的市场．即经营非居民之间存、贷款业务的市场。它是国际金融市场的重要组成部分．其核心是欧洲货币市场。随着各国对外投资和跨国公司的发展，在当今世界经济日益国际化的潮流中，离岸金融市场及其交易活动已...     

浅析欧洲货币市场发展及人民币离岸金融市场的建设

欧洲货币市场又称离岸金融市场,是非居民之间以银行为中介在某种货币发行国国境之外从事该货币借贷的市场。本文在回顾欧洲货币市场发展历史沿革、总结其交易机制特殊之处的基础上,借鉴其经验,提出了我国发展人民币离岸金融市场的对策建议,包括金融产品创新、严格市场准入、加强对国际优质客户的培养等。同时针对我国人民币离岸金融市场面临的风险,提出了相应的防范措施。     

浅析欧洲货币市场发展及人民币离岸金融市场的建设

欧洲货币市场又称离岸金融市场,是非居民之间以银行为中介在某种货币发行国国境之外从事该货币借贷的市场.本文在回顾欧洲货币市场发展历史沿革、总结其交易机制特殊之处的基础上,借鉴其经验,提出了我国发展人民币离岸金融市场的对策建议,包括金融产品创新、严格市场准入、加强对国际优质客户的培养等.同时针对我国人民币离岸金融市场面临的风险,提出了相应的防范措施     

论离岸金融市场是有监管的市场

离岸金融市场是现代金融市场的重要组成部分，具有不同在岸市场的特殊性，离岸市场的出现和发展虽然给金融监管带来了前所未有的挑战，但离岸市场仍然是有监管的市场，而且受来自多方面监管和法律影响，没有任何一个国家或机构能够行使完全控制，离岸市场的发展促成了国际金融的一体化，也造成了国际金融体系的不稳定，因此对离岸市场客观上需要加强监管。     

人民币离岸市场发展的现状与风险分析

国际金融危机爆发以来,世界主要国家和地区经济均受到严重冲击,尤其伴随着欧债危机愈演愈烈,市场对欧元解体或被新货币取代的预期不断加强,进一步削弱了其国际货币的地位.与此同时,中国经济的快速发展、人民币币值的相对走强均对市场产生了强大的吸引力,人民币国际化趋势势不可挡.在当前形势下,加速人民币离岸市场发展无疑是推进人民币国际化最为有效的途径.本文从离岸人民币存款、债券以及股票市场等方面分析人民币离岸市场现状,并从中发现市场风险因素,为进一步发展人民币离岸市场提供一些借鉴.     

东京离岸金融市场

离岸金融市场是一个国家为了促进国际间的资金流动而在本国境内设立的国际金融市场。它是伴随着国际银行业的蓬勃发展和国际资本的迅速膨胀而产生的.一般来讲,离岸金融市场有如下特征:经营的是所在国以外的货币,即所谓外部或离岸的货币,金融交易不直接同国内银行体系联结;从事离岸金融交易的金融机构几乎不受任何限制,并享受税收上的优     

关于建立上海离岸国际金融市场的探讨

80年代以来,伴随着世界经济一体化进程的推进,国际金融也朝着全球一体化的方向发展。其主要表现就是各国金融市场和金融机构的国际化,而建立离岸国际金融市场则成为各国金融市场国际化的主要途径。世界经济及金融发展表明,离岸金融市场使所在国获益匪浅。巨额国际资金的流动及其存量,有利于所在国利用。离岸业务的费用收入带来可观的金融效益并带动服务业的发展,增加就业机会,从而促进所在国经济发展。离岸市场也使所在国在国际金融界的地位提高。我国要加快发展社会主义市场经济,参与国际经济循环,必须加快我国金融业国际化的步伐,其中,尽早在我国的主要经济中心上海设立离岸金融市场,应该说是明智的选择。     

国际离岸金融市场的特征与香港人民币离岸市场建设

离岸金融市场受益于税收优惠以及高度自由化的政策环境,近年来发展迅速,在国际金融市场上的重要性逐步提升,对国际金融市场的影响力逐步增强.香港作为国际金融中心,在人民币离岸市场建设方面具有得天独厚的优势.目前监管当局应从完善制度建设、推动监管合作等方面入手,大力消除现阶段阻碍人民币跨境流动的障碍,加快香港人民币离岸市场建设...     

Impact of Market Expectations on the U.S. Interest Rate Lift-Off in ASEAN-5 Financial System

During 2015–2016, the market has lowered its expectations on the pace and magnitude of U.S. interest rate lift-off, which should have reduced capital outflow and supported the ASEAN-5 financial markets. Yet, the ASEAN-5 financial markets have recorded mixed fortunes, possibly due to spikes in global risk (proxied by CBOE VIX index). Against the contrasting background of higher global risk and gradual interest rate lift-off, this paper investigates the impact of market expectations on U.S. interest rate on the ASEAN-5 financial markets. This paper concludes that both global risk and market expectations on interest rate lift-off affect the ASEAN-5 financial markets, whereby the negative effect of higher global risk dominates the positive effect of market expectations of gradual interest rate lift-off in the ASEAN-5 currencies and equity markets. However, it is the reverse in the ASEAN-5 sovereign bonds as the positive impact of market expectations of more gradual interest rate lift-off dominates the negative effect of higher global risk.

     

Do credit rating agencies add to the dynamics of emerging market crises?

This study investigates the role of credit rating agencies in international financial markets. With an index of speculative market pressure it is analyzed whether sovereign ratings changes have an impact on the financial stability in emerging market economies. The event study analysis indicates that sovereign rating changes have substantial influence on the size and volatility of emerging markets lending. The empirical results are significantly stronger in the case of government's downgrades and negative imminent rating actions than in the case of agencies’ positive rating adjustments. Sovereign rating changes anticipated by market participants have a smaller impact on financial markets in emerging economies.     

Realizing the volatility impacts of sovereign credit ratings information on equity and currency markets: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis

We examine the effects of different types of sovereign rating announcements on realized stock and currency market volatilities and cross-asset correlations around periods of financial crises. Using intraday market data and sovereign ratings data for nine sample countries in the Asia-Pacific region over 1997–2001, we find that currency and stock markets react somewhat heterogeneously to various rating announcements and that stock markets are more responsive to rating news than currency markets. We find new evidence that ratings events have significant and asymmetric impacts on intraday market data and that national market attributes influence rating impacts during financial crises.     

Realizing the volatility impacts of sovereign credit ratings information on equity and currency markets: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis

We examine the effects of different types of sovereign rating announcements on realized stock and currency market volatilities and cross-asset correlations around periods of financial crises. Using intraday market data and sovereign ratings data for nine sample countries in the Asia-Pacific region over 1997–2001, we find that currency and stock markets react somewhat heterogeneously to various rating announcements and that stock markets are more responsive to rating news than currency markets. We find new evidence that ratings events have significant and asymmetric impacts on intraday market data and that national market attributes influence rating impacts during financial crises.     

Market Impact on financial market integration: Cross-quantilogram analysis of the global impact of the euro

We contribute to the literature by providing a more comprehensive understanding of the impact the euro has had on financial market integration with economies of different characteristics outside and within the European market via inclusion of market conditions influence on the level of financial integration. Our paper employs the recently developed cross-quantilogram (Han et al., 2016) approach to examine quantile dependence between the conditional stock return distributions of Germany and the UK with that of three common currency groups within EMU (Finland, France, and Italy), two global leading markets (the US and Japan), and two of the most promising emerging markets (China and India). We find three key results. First, both the EU membership and the common currency union affect the degree of financial market integration. Nevertheless, disentangling the effects of EU membership from the common currency shows that the common currency group has an additional impact on financial integration, as the degree of dependence is stronger in the common currency group than in the sovereign currency group and other groups. Second, there is a heterogeneous dependence structure, which is strongly observed for the UK and German stock returns with that of developed (the US and Japan) and emerging markets (India and China). Third, cross-quantile correlations change over time, especially in low and high quantiles, indicating that they are prone to jumps and discontinuities in the dependence structure. As far as we are aware, this is the first study in this field employing a cross-quantilogram method to examine the impact of different market conditions on the correlations, making our study a pioneer in the field of stock market integration.     

On the exposure of insurance companies to sovereign risk—Portfolio investments and market forces

A sovereign debt crisis can have significant knock-on effects in the financial markets and put financial stability at risk. This paper focuses on the transmission of sovereign risk to insurance companies as some of the largest institutional investors in the sovereign bond market. We use a firm level panel dataset that covers large insurance companies, banks and non-financial firms from nine countries over the time period from 1 January 2008–1 May 2013. We find significant and robust transmission effects from sovereign risk to domestic insurers. The impact on insurers is not significantly different from that on banks but larger than for non-financial firms. We find that systemically important insurers are more closely linked to the domestic sovereign. Based on European data, we show that risks in sovereign bond portfolios are an important driver of insurer risk, which is not reflected in current insurance regulation (incl. Solvency II in Europe).     

The impact of sovereign rating actions on bank ratings in emerging markets

This paper analyses the effects of sovereign rating actions on the credit ratings of banks in emerging markets, using a sample from three global rating agencies across 54 countries for 1999–2009. Despite widespread attention to sovereign ratings and bank ratings, no previous study has investigated the link in this manner. We find that sovereign rating upgrades (downgrades) have strong effects on bank rating upgrades (downgrades). The impact of sovereign watch status on bank rating actions is much weaker and often insignificant. The sensitivity of banks’ ratings to sovereign rating actions is affected by the countries’ economic and financial freedom and by macroeconomic conditions. Ratings of banks with different ownership structures are all influenced strongly by the sovereign rating, with some variation depending on the countries’ characteristics. Emerging market bank ratings are less likely to follow sovereign rating downgrades during the recent financial crisis period.     

在岸与离岸人民币汇率动态研究——基于美元因素和套利因素的视角

在全球宏观环境背景下,研究在岸与离岸人民币汇率的联动机制可以为扩大我国金融市场对外开放、推动人民币国际化以及防范化解金融风险提供参考和理论依据。本文借鉴Verdelhan(2018)的研究,通过VECM-BEKK-GARCH模型研究了在岸与离岸人民币汇率间均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应中美元因素及套利因素的作用。结果发现:(1)“8·11”汇改后离岸人民币汇率对在岸人民币汇率的影响在均值溢出和波动溢出方面都显著上升,而在岸人民币汇率对离岸人民币汇率的波动溢出能力也开始出现,两个市场的一体性大幅提高;(2)美元因素和套利因素对在岸人民币汇率的影响越来越强,美元因素的影响依然要强于套利因素,这也基本符合前期研究中美元因素起主导作用的结论;(3)以美元因素和套利因素为代表的全球系统性变异因素会影响离岸市场向在岸市场的冲击传导以及在岸人民币市场向离岸人民币市场的波动传导。     

Market reactions to ECB policy innovations: A cross-country analysis

Regulators have been paying increasing attention to governing and steering market fluctuations, with their role in shaping the economic cycle being ever more crucial. The combined effect of the financial and sovereign debt crises, as well as the approach to the zero lower bound, has made actions even more pressing, forcing the European Central Bank to resort to unconventional instruments to revive the economies and counter deflationary pressures. By using a combined event study and panel regression methodology, we investigate whether European Monetary Union equity markets react heterogeneously to standard and non-standard European Central Bank policy innovations. Our results show that conventional policies unevenly affect financial indices in the Eurozone and, hence, are bound to generate asymmetries that reflect on real economies, while unconventional measures, albeit with different intensities, exercise a homogeneous pressure on all markets. Our evidence highlights the beneficial impact of unconventional measures and suggests that they can play a useful role even in non-crisis times.     

Spillovers among sovereign CDS,stock and commodity markets: A correlation network perspective

In the wake of the globalization of financial markets, studying spillovers among different asset markets, especially spillovers that include sovereign CDS markets, is of vital importance. This paper attempts to build a spillover network to investigate the complex interactions within the system of sovereign CDS, stock and commodity markets by adopting the spillover index based on forecast error variance (FEV) decomposition. The results reveal that emerging countries have larger average spillovers than developed countries with regard to sovereign CDS-to-stock returns spillovers, while the developed countries contribute more average spillovers than the emerging countries in the opposite direction. Moreover, the sovereign CDS market and the commodity market still demonstrate a relatively important role during certain periods although stock markets always occupy the dominant position during every phase. Our findings provide new insights into spillovers among the major global asset markets using a network perspective, which is valuable for regulation of financial markets, asset allocation and portfolio risk management.