A real options perspective on entrepreneurial entry in the face of uncertainty

In this paper we develop and test theory regarding whether entrepreneurs contemplating starting a new venture account for the value of the option to defer the entry decision. While others have illuminated the theoretical applicability of real options theory to entrepreneurship, empirical evidence in this context is lacking. Consistent with predictions derived from real options theory, we find that high uncertainty in the target industry dissuades entry, and that the irreversibility of the entry decision moderates this relationship. Furthermore, we find that the irreversibility of the investment decision can be influenced by industry‐level, firm‐level and even individual‐level factors. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human Capital Investment and Work Incentives

Traditional human capital theory based on the work by Gary Becker shows that firms do not invest in general human capital but offer firm‐specific training that is only useful for the training firm. I extend the traditional approach by adding two natural assumptions—workers cannot be forced to acquire new knowledge, and they exert unobservable effort to produce valuable output for their employer. I show under which conditions firms do not offer firm‐specific training but invest in general human capital, which increases the workers' outside option. This investment behavior is well in line with the documented prevalence of industry‐specific and occupation‐specific human capital over firm‐specific human capital.     

Sooner or Later? – Paradoxical Investment Effects of Capital Gains Taxation under Simultaneous Investment and Abandonment Flexibility

This paper analyzes the impact of capital gains taxation on investment timing decisions for risky investment projects with entry and exit flexibility under differential tax rates for ordinary income and capital gains. We investigate whether capital gains taxation influences immediate and delayed investments asymmetrically, given the optimal abandonment decision. If capital gains taxation induces a lock-in effect, this effect is anticipated in the investment timing decision. In contrast to prior research, our numerical simulations show that this lock-in effect of capital gains taxation can induce normal as well as paradoxical effects on investment timing under simultaneous entry and exit flexibility. A paradoxical timing effect, i.e., investment accelerated by capital gains taxation, especially emerges for high liquidation proceeds or, more conservative tax accounting, low interest rates, and low volatilities. In these cases, capital gains taxation reduces the value of the option to invest and hereby increases the propensity to invest immediately. As a second paradoxical tax effect, capital gains taxation may favor delayed real investment over financial investment. Facing these results, tax legislators should not use capital gains taxation as a short-term tax policy instrument to influence investors' timing decisions.     

Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle

This paper studies investment in intellectual capital and corresponding value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle. We assume that the innovation cycle consists of three phases, R&D, trial, and market introduction phases. We use a real option investment model to characterize firm value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle and find that firm value is the sum of the value of assets in place and non-linear option values related to breakthrough, exit, and market introduction options. Firm risk over the innovation cycle is highly non-linear and quite distinct in different phases. During the R&D phase risk is high as the firm faces high operating leverage originating from R&D fixed costs together with technological uncertainty. During the trial phase risk is significantly lower and dominated by option risk to launch the product in the market while after the introduction of the product in the market risk is equivalent to the asset risk of the company. Our model is consistent with the view that positive excess returns of R&D intensive firms are a compensation for risk. Based on this insight we derive several testable predictions.     

Linking forward and reverse supply chain investments: The role of business uncertainty

This paper explores managerial efforts in reverse supply chains (RSC), where the focus is on the capture and exploitation of used products and materials. The RSC can potentially reduce negative environmental impacts of extracting virgin raw materials and waste disposal. If so, investment in the reverse supply chain should not be made in isolation, but instead must be integrated with investments selected to improve the forward supply chain. After defining and operationalizing these constructs, a survey of plant managers was used to empirically assess the linkages between supply chain investments, organizational risk propensity (i.e., willingness to take risk) and business uncertainty. Reverse supply chain investment had two primary dimensions: reconditioning (i.e., high-value recovery) and recycling and waste management (i.e., low- or no-value recovery). Ongoing investment in the forward supply chain was significantly related to investment in recycling and waste management, but not to investment in reconditioning. Moreover, risk propensity was found to mediate the relationship between the external business uncertainty and investment in the forward and reverse supply chain.     

Diasporas and Domestic Entrepreneurs: Evidence from the Indian Software Industry

This study explores the importance of cross‐border social networks for entrepreneurs in developing countries by examining ties between the Indian expatriate community and local entrepreneurs in India's software industry. We find that local entrepreneurs who have previously lived outside India rely significantly more on diaspora networks for business leads and financing. This is especially true for entrepreneurs who are based outside software hubs—where getting leads to new businesses and accessing finance is more difficult. Our results provide micro‐evidence consistent with a view that cross‐border social networks play an important role in helping entrepreneurs to circumvent the barriers arising from imperfect domestic institutions in developing countries.     

The influence of entrepreneurs’ social referents on start-up size

This paper uses social comparison theory to explore the effect that the average size of established businesses at the regional (provincial) level may have on start-up size. It is argued that established entrepreneurs at the regional level become referents of new entrepreneurs, influencing not only the decision to become entrepreneurs but also the characteristics of the new venture, such as its initial size. Specifically, the greater the average size of established businesses at the provincial level, the bigger the start-up size of new ventures. This paper further considers how this effect is moderated by two key individual level variables: knowing an entrepreneur personally (i.e., close social referent), and being the owner and manager of an existing business (i.e., past entrepreneurial and managerial experience). Predictions are tested using data that combine individual- and provincial-level information in Spain over the period 2008–2014. The results show the positive relationship of the average size of established businesses on new venture start-up size, and that this effect decreases when the entrepreneurs have previous entrepreneurial experience.     

If You Are So Smart,Why Aren't You an Entrepreneur? Returns to Cognitive and Social Ability: Entrepreneurs Versus Employees

How valuable are cognitive and social abilities for entrepreneurs’ relative to employees’ earnings? We answer three questions: (1) To what extent does a composite measure of ability affect an entrepreneur's earnings relative to wages earned by employees? (2) Do different cognitive abilities (e.g., math ability, language, or verbal ability) and social ability affect earnings of entrepreneurs and employees differently?, and (3) Does the balance in these measured ability levels affect an individual's earnings? Our (difference‐of‐difference) estimates of the returns to ability for spells in entrepreneurship versus wage employment account for selectivity into entrepreneurial positions insofar as they are determined by fixed individual characteristics. Our robust results provide the following answers to the three questions: General ability has a stronger impact on entrepreneurial incomes than on wages. Moreover, entrepreneurs and employees benefit from different sets of specific abilities: verbal and clerical abilities have a stronger impact on wages, whereas mathematical, social, and technical ability are more valuable for entrepreneurs. The balance in the various kinds of ability also generates a higher income, but only for entrepreneurs: This finding supports Lazear's Jack‐of‐all‐Trades theory.     

Sharing my way to success: A case study on developing entrepreneurial ventures using social capital in an OSS community

While Open Source Software (OSS) communities provide opportunities for knowledge creation, we have a limited understanding of how entrepreneurs leverage OSS communities for their entrepreneurial ventures. Using social capital theory in a mixed methods case study, we compare entrepreneur and non-entrepreneur behaviors to investigate how entrepreneurs build social capital within an OSS community. This study shows that entrepreneurs differentiate themselves from non-entrepreneurs by focusing on cognitive and relational capital building activities, which in return makes it possible for them to leverage their social capital to influence and shape the environment in which they are operating. Our findings suggest that entrepreneurs strategically select which activities within the community to expend their limited resources on (e.g., developing code over participating in email conversations) and build their social capital more through their actions than through their words (e.g., showing their commitment to the community through code commits, bug fixes, and documentation). Given the liabilities of newness and smallness as well as other challenges faced by entrepreneurs, applying an open innovation strategy in OSS communities could be one approach where entrepreneurs, by developing and freely revealing their intellectual property to the community, share their way to success via OSS-infused entrepreneurial business ventures.     

THE DECADES‐LONG DISPUTE OVER SCALE EFFECTS IN THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The so‐called “new growth theory” is characterized by the now Nobel Prize winning insight that ideas are a nonrival input to and output from endogenous investment in innovation. Nonrivalry implies increasing returns to scale, but this also unintentionally creates an empirically disputed scale effect that a growing population implies an ever‐increasing growth rate. Empirical evidence supports fully‐endogenous growth without scale effects, but theoretical issues sustain the decades‐long dispute over exactly how to negate the scale effect. This article surveys theoretical approaches to resolving the scale effect and shows how four generations of endogenous growth theory are defined by the maturing of modeling techniques for constraining increasing returns. The synthesis suggests that the dispute over scale effects is really a narrative about how the powerful application of increasing returns has followed a standard theoretical development pattern. This implies that a fourth generation is now emerging that negates the scale effect while retaining fully‐endogenous growth without relying on assumptions of linearity. Instead, the market response to excessive increasing returns to innovation constrains explosive growth by expanding the market, rather than by a linear assumption. This latest class of endogenous growth models may be the final chapter to resolving the long‐running dispute.     

Passion Isn't Always a Good Thing: Examining Entrepreneurs' Network Centrality and Financial Performance with a Dualistic Model of Passion

We propose a conceptual model that links entrepreneurs' passion, network centrality, and financial performance, and test this model with small business managers in formal business networking groups. Drawing on the dualistic model of passion, we explore the relationships that harmonious and obsessive passion have with financial performance, mediated by network centrality. Results indicate that harmoniously passionate entrepreneurs had higher out‐degree centrality in their networking group (i.e., they were more inclined to seek out members to discuss work issues), which increased the income they received from peer referrals and, ultimately, business income. Obsessively passionate entrepreneurs had lower in‐degree centrality (i.e., they were less likely to be approached by peers), and in turn received less income from referrals and less business income. These findings highlight that entrepreneurial passion does not always result in positive financial outcomes – the type of passion makes a difference. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

The influence of entrepreneurs’ immigrant status and time on the perceived likelihood of exporting

We contribute in this paper to the scant literature on the factors and conditions influencing the development of different perceptions of potential international opportunities for immigrant and native entrepreneurs in the pre-internationalization phase. Specifically, we investigate what factors influence the perceived likelihood entrepreneurs have of exporting. Building on entrepreneurial intentions and opportunity-based entrepreneurial processes, we propose a cognitive account of perceived likelihood of exporting based on entrepreneurs’ perceptions of the desirability and feasibility of export opportunities. We investigate how the immigrant status (i.e., individual characteristics) and time (i.e., contextual factors) influence the relationship between the desirability and feasibility of exporting, and entrepreneurs’ perceived likelihood of exporting. We employ an experimental design on a matched-pair sample of 108 native and immigrant entrepreneurs in domestic technology-based firms. The results are a unique account of the cognitive antecedents of the perceived likelihood of exporting under different temporal conditions, comparing immigrant and native entrepreneurs. We discuss theoretical and practical implications.

     

Do interest rate options contain information about excess returns?

There is strong empirical evidence that long-term interest rates contain a time-varying risk premium. Options may contain valuable information about this risk premium because their prices are sensitive to the underlying interest rates. We use the joint time series of swap rates and interest rate option prices to estimate dynamic term structure models. The risk premiums that we estimate using option prices are better able to predict excess returns for long-term swaps over short-term swaps. Moreover, in contrast to the previous literature, the most successful models for predicting excess returns have risk factors with stochastic volatility. We also show that the stochastic volatility models we estimate using option prices match the failure of the expectations hypothesis.     

Market entry of firms with different legal forms: an empirical test of the influence of institutional factors

Drawing upon institutional theory we develop a conceptual model and investigate the determinants of market entry for worker cooperatives, publicly traded and limited-liability companies. Our results show that formal institutional conditions (i.e., mercantile legislation) influence the start-up choice of entrepreneurs regarding the legal form of their new venture. In addition, we take into account the influence of informal institutional conditions (i.e., local corporate culture) on the market entry rate of firms with different legal structures. Findings show that, while market entry is sensitive to the general economic climate, entry rates of firms with a different legal structure respond differently to the same economic conditions.

A Firm-Specific Analysis of the Exchange-Rate Exposure of Dutch Firms

We examine the relationship between exchange‐rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994–1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange‐rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange‐rate exposure benefit from a depreciation of the Dutch guilder relative to a trade‐weighted currency index. This result confirms that firms in open economies, such as the Netherlands, exhibit significant exchange‐rate exposure. We collect unique information on the most relevant individual currencies for each firm with respect to their influence on firm value. Our results indicate that the use of a trade‐weighted currency index and the use of individual exchange rates are complements. We also measure the determinants of exchange‐rate exposure. As expected, we find that firm size and the foreign sales ratio are significantly and positively related to exchange‐rate exposure. In contrast with our hypothesis, off‐balance hedging using derivatives has no significant effects. Finally, in line with theory, we find that exposure is significantly reduced through on‐balance sheet hedging, i.e., through foreign loans and by producing in factories abroad.     

Risk preference heterogeneity in group contests

We analyze the first model of a group contest with players that are heterogeneous in their risk preferences. In our model, individuals’ preferences are represented by a utility function exhibiting a generalized form of constant absolute risk aversion, allowing us to consider any combination of risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-loving players. We begin by proving equilibrium existence and uniqueness under both linear and convex investment costs. Then, we explore how the sorting of a compatible set of players by their risk attitudes into competing groups affects aggregate investment. With linear costs, a balanced sorting (i.e., minimizing the variance in risk attitudes across groups) always produces an aggregate investment level that is at least as high as an unbalanced sorting (i.e., maximizing the variance in risk attitudes across groups). Under convex costs, however, identifying which sorting is optimal is more nuanced and depends on preference and cost parameters.     

The Who,Where, What,How and When of Market Entry

This introductory, along with the eight articles contained within this Special Issue, highlights and brings greater clarity to entrant‐incumbent interactions and to firm movement – when entrants traverse market territories for the creation and/or delivery of offerings, where ‘markets’ include service or product categories, technology or resource spaces, industries, sectors and/or geographies. Collectively, this Special Issues explains that firm movement across market boundaries is highly consequential, influencing resource‐capability mixes inside firms, interfirm relations, market logic and industry value chains, and of course, people, communities and even nations. Specifically, we develop a field‐wide perspective of market entry by expanding on the framework of market entry that Zachary and his colleagues developed (Zachary et al., 2015) – i.e., the who (players such as incumbents, entrants, suppliers, etc.), when (the timing and sequence of entry), how (the strategy, resources, capabilities, etc.), where (the space of entry) and what (product, service, business model, etc.) – to include two additional categories: complements (networks, platforms, ecosystems) and non‐market elements (government, political, social and cultural arrangements). We also summarize the eight highly diverse and insightful articles that make this Special Issue, and conclude with a discussion to highlight foundational questions that point to new directions in future research in this field. In sum, we hope to inspire scholars to go beyond counting outcomes (e.g., entry/exit rates, or profiling successful versus unsuccessful entrants), to consider contexts, processes and contingencies (e.g., cost, time, collaboration, competition, interfirm relations, etc.) and to discover boundary conditions that inform a theory of market entry.     

The Relationship between Slack Resources and the Performance of Entrepreneurial Firms: The Role of Venture Capital and Angel Investors

In this study, we seek to further delineate factors that condition the relationship between slack resources and firm performance. To do so, we develop and test a model that establishes the role of venture capital (VC) and angel investors as powerful external stakeholders who positively moderate the slack–performance relationship. In addition, we provide more insight into this relationship by examining differences between these two types of private investors and by examining the role of their ownership stakes. We test our hypotheses using a sample of 1215 private firms, including VC‐backed firms, angel‐backed firms, and similar firms without such investors. We find that the presence of VC investors positively moderates the relationship between both financial and human slack resources and firm performance, while angel investors only positively moderate the effect of human resource slack. Further, VC investors are only marginally better at helping entrepreneurs to extract value from human resource slack than angel investors and they are no better when it comes to financial slack. Finally, we find that the impact of financial and human resource slack on firm performance is more positive in VC‐backed firms when investors hold high ownership stakes, an effect which is significantly stronger than when angel investors hold high ownership stakes.     

Entrepreneurs Seeking Gains: Profit Motives and Risk Aversion in Inventors’ Commercialization Decisions

Direct evidence has been lacking on entrepreneurs’ response to individual‐specific opportunities, and recent work suggests that entrepreneurship may be a non‐profit‐seeking activity and that entrepreneurs evaluate risk oddly. We model heterogeneous inventors and inventions, outside opportunities, sunk and nonsunk costs, and risk, to guide data analysis. We use assessment data from a center paid to assess the inventions’ economic potential. Inventors’ choices whether to commercialize their inventions and later whether to remain in production were consistent with profit‐seeking motives and risk aversion.     

Commitment, advertising and efficiency of two-sided investment in competitive search equilibrium

Competitive search entails both commitment to and advertising of pay-off relevant aspects of market participants. This paper considers incrementally the implications of each in a labor market where both workers and firms invest prior to market entry. A wide range of institutional arrangements are addressed within the same general framework. When the characteristics of jobs or workers are advertised the efficient outcome pertains. Commitment without advertising typically leads to market unravelling: the Diamond paradox. But, whenever wages and human capital are advertised, firms become residual claimants; the private and social returns to investment coincide. Absent wage commitment, the Hosios condition implies efficiency when investments are advertised.