阿根廷金融危机的成因剖析和经验教训

从全球范围看，阿根廷金融危机是21世纪的第一场金融危机，它的形成和爆发不仅对阿国本身的经济和社会生活造成很大破坏，也对整个拉美经济和世界经济产生深远的影响。本文深入分析了阿根廷金融危机的成因，指出阿根廷金融危机的根本原因是汇率制度选择一成不变导致币值真实高估，降低了出口竞争力；加之巨额财政赤字和债务危机以及领导人频敏更替等，共同促成了金融危机。作者建议采用“相机抉择”原则制定汇率制度；审慎对待财政赤字和外债问题，财政赤字不宜过大，外债应该合理，并进行良好的控制、监督与管理；加强IMF等国际金融机构的危机预警与国际救援能力。     

美国金融危机成因的系统剖析和启示

一、美国金融危机成因透析 系统考察美国金融危机的成因,归结起来主要有以下几个方面: (一)基础原因:货币政策运用失当导致房地产市场泡沫破灭 美国互联网泡沫及9·11事件后到2004年6月,美联储连续13次降息,尔后到2006年8月,又先后17次加息.     

美国金融危机成因的系统剖析和启示

许多投资人会将“基本面”与“合理股价”画上等号。并认为股市长期来说．应该会有一个合理价位,或者回归合理行情。事实上,这种认为股票长期来说会有一个客观、合理行情的人,是误将自己评估企业合理投资价位的手段,与证券市场上每日波动的股价混为一谈了。     

美国金融危机经验教训的深入反思

“前事不忘,后事之师”。历史的经验教训值得汲取。本文对2008年9月爆发的美国金融危机进一步深入反思。分析了引发美国金融危机的源头、危机原因等,并在其基础上,指出了我国应从美国金融危机及其次贷危机中吸取的重要经验教训。     

货币局制度与阿根廷金融危机

货币局制度在阿根廷抑制恶性通货膨胀的过程中发挥了重要作用,但货币局制度也存在着严重缺陷.本文在分析阿根廷实施货币局制度的源起及成效的基础上,探讨了货币局制度的缺陷与阿根廷金融危机之间的关系,并由此揭示了从中应吸取的一些教训.     

关于阿根廷金融危机的分析与思考

金融危机过后的阿根廷经济正在复苏众所周知,阿根廷于2001年至2002年爆发了史无前例的金融危机,并同步发生财政危机、企业危机、政治危机、社会危机、体制危机。对此,阿根廷政府采取了一系列措施,努力走出危机阴云,使GDP 逐季增长,     

现代金融危机的成因和应对策略

随着经济金融化日益加深,现代金融危机以多种形式出现,甚至会波及整个金融体系乃至整个经济体系,导致经济危机。所以,要从国际和国内不同角度探寻金融危机的成因,并采取相应的策略应对金融危机,对经济思维进行创新,重构国际货币体系。     

阿根廷货币金融危机的回顾原因分析及启示

从20世纪70年代至今,阿根廷已经经历了9次货币和金融危机,特别是2001年末至2002年初的危机全面升级演变为政治和社会危机,国家经济至今没有恢复.同为发展中国家,虽然阿根廷货币金融危机对中国没有产生直接的影响,但从中得到的启示将有助于我们制定正确的发展政策,保持经济金融的持续快速平稳发展.     

THE ASIAN CRISIS: LESSONS FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND PREVENTION

The succession of financial crises that swept through Asia, Russia, and Latin America in 1997 and 1998 has led to considerable debate about both the role of the IMF and possible actions to limit further crises. Some have argued that international financial markets do not function well and are subject to periodic contagious panics that can be stemmed by an international lender of last resort. This paper argues that the IMF has neither the resources nor the superior information to play such a role. However, there may be a need for an international financial institution that can use its leverage to secure policy changes in the affected countries.
The paper also takes issue with the view that the IMF is simply bailing out imprudent international banks and that measures are needed to bail them back in again. The source of the Asian crisis lay in the real economy, but the effect of the crisis was greatly exacerbated by the financial structure of the affected countries. In particular, much of the risk was borne by domestic banks that borrowed dollars in the short-term interbank market and made longerterm loans in the local currency. Public policy needs to be directed to ensuring that the risks in emerging markets are distributed efficiently across both foreign and domestic investors. That involves greater use of equity finance and structured debt, as well as possibly a more direct role for foreign banks in funding local activities.     

日本金融改革的经验和教训

日本自1995年以来为改革金融体制进行了诸多尝试,其主题是引入美国式以直接融资为核心的金融制度,发展证券市场,实现由间接金融为主向直接金融为主的转变,同时拓展国际市场.但由于在进行结构调整的同时还要处理巨额的不良贷款,使其改革步履迟滞;更重要的是日本金融业内一直回避竞争,信息披露的透明度低,因此尽管在形式上已具备了美国金融模式的框架,实质上还是以银行为中心的融资体制.迄今为止,改革从总体上看是不成功的.中国的金融结构与日本有类似之处,而且也面临着处理不良贷款的问题.日本的经验教训应对中国金融结构改革有一定的借鉴意义.     

ACCOUNTING FOR FINANCIAL AND MANAGERIAL CAUSES OF SHORT-TERM PRESSURES IN BRITISH CORPORATIONS

Short-term pressures are defined and a distinction drawn between external S-TP, mainly from shareholders, and internal S-TP, from top management. A conceptual framework for analysing S-TP is developed and empirical evidence for their existence reviewed. Although certain crude formulations of the argument for short-termism are rejected, evidence is found for the existence of both types of S-TP in the UK. Variations in their intensity among sectors can be accounted for partly by inherent differences in technology, and partly by differences in the behaviour of firms. Excessive diversification, particularly by acquisition, exacerbates S-TP.     

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT IN UNIVERSITIES: THE LESSONS FROM UNIVERSITY COLLEGE, CARDIFF

This paper describes how in 1987 a university reached the verge of bankruptcy. It reviews the constitutional constraints on action by the Government and the University Grants Committee and the steps that were taken to rescue the institution. It goes on to analyse how the university reached this position and what lessons can be learned by other universities and by Government from the affair.     

DIVERGENT EXPECTATIONS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997

An important question concerning integration of global financial markets is whether local investors in an equity market react differently from international investors, particularly during periods of financial crisis. Considering local investors are closer to information, they might turn pessimistic before foreign investors before a crisis. We examine whether local investors in each of the six Asian stock markets—Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand—reacted differently from international investors during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Our empirical results indicate that, in general, closed‐end country fund share prices (mainly driven by foreign investors) Granger‐cause the respective net asset values (NAVs, mainly driven by local investors). Moreover, this one‐way Granger‐causality effect from share prices to NAVs becomes much stronger during the crisis period after controlling for U.S. stock returns. Our results suggest international investors turned pessimistic before local investors. JEL classification: G15     

GLOBALIZATION OF CAPITAL MARKETS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

This article has three basic aims: (1) to analyze the impact of the opening of their capital markets on the economies of host countries; (2) to investigate the causes of the Asian financial crisis; and (3) to evaluate the likely effects of the South Korean government's recent attempts to restructure its corporate sector. Although the recent Asian financial crisis has led some to question the merits of open capital markets and to call for regulatory restraints on capital flows across international borders, the scientific evidence suggests that the opening of stock markets to foreign investors has been largely beneficial for emerging economies. On average, stock market liberalization has been accompanied by increases in stock prices and reductions in stock return volatility, reductions in inflation, and reductions in the rate of currency depreciation. Much of the blame for the Asian currency crises is assigned to Asian policymakers' futile attempts to defy market forces by trying to maintain their currencies at artificially high levels. But a more fundamental cause of Asia's economic problems has been the widespread value destruction by Asian corporations, which has led to a lower value for the overall economy and weakened the banking sector. The government-directed banking systems and weak corporate governance structures (including managerial incentives to increase size and market share at the expense of shareholders) that characterize most Asian economies have resulted in systematic overinvestment, bloated payrolls, and sharp declines in corporate profitability. While applauding most of the Korean government's recent measures to reform the economy, the article expresses skepticism about the government-mandated restructuring of the chaebol known as the “big deal.” Rather than trying to direct the process of restructuring, Korean policymakers should limit their efforts to improving the market mechanism by increasing competition in the markets for capital, corporate control, and goods and services. The Korean market for corporate control transactions could be greatly improved by increasing the efficiency of bankruptcy proceedings and by allowing hostile takeovers by foreign as well as domestic investors. To increase the productivity of capital, Asian companies should seek to realign managerial with shareholder interests by tying compensation to measures of value creation like EVA.     

“点”的脆裂与“面”的恶化

“春风不解禁杨花,乱扑行人面”,还没来得及既然雀跃于溅溅新绿,迎面而来的危机第二波絮风就撩拨得人愁情无依,一寸还成千万缕。刹那间,金融市场中忧如芳草,萋萋划尽还生,宏微观经济主体尽皆小楼听春雨,狐疑着第二波的些许端倪。