Dynamics of endogenous growth

Summary We present an overlapping generations model of endogenous fertility and growth. The cost of child rearing and the effect of population size on total factor productivity determine the dynamics of competitive equilibrium path of our model. The non-linear dynamics of the model generates a plethora of outcomes (depending on the functional forms, parameters and initial conditions) that include not only the neo-classical steady state with exponential growth of population with constant per capita income and consumption, but also growth paths which do not converge to a steady state and are even chaotic. Exponential, and even super exponential, growth of per capita output are possible in some cases.We would like to thank Mukul Majumdar, Kazuo Nishimura and an anonymous referee for many comments.     

Explaining Differences in Economic Growth among OECD Countries

This paper re-examines the determinants of growth of GDP per capita using panel data for OECD countries for the period 1970–1999 with data averaged over five-year periods from new perspectives. First, we introduce indicators of innovation input and technological specialization simultaneously into the empirical growth equation. Second, we employ the system-GMM (Generalized-Method-of-Moments) panel estimator that controls for (a) the possible specification bias when variables are highly persistent over time and (b) the possible simultaneity bias. We find a large and statistically significant impact of business enterprise R&D (BERD) intensity on GDP per capita with an elasticity of 0.22. The share of high-technology exports is also significantly positively related to GDP per capita, but the magnitude suggests that BERD is more important than technological specialization in explaining the level of GDP per capita. Furthermore, we find that the budget deficit and government consumption (both measured as percentages of GDP) and the volatility of growth are significantly negatively related to GDP per capita.The authors would like to thank Gunther Tichy for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. We also thank the participants of the Austrian economic association conference (NOEG) and the Empirical Industrial Organization workshop at the WU WIEN for helpful comments. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the OeNB Jubiläumsfonds Project and the Austrian Federal Ministry for Economy and Labor (BMWA).JEL codes: E62, H20, H50, O23, O40     

Relative backwardness and technology catching up with scale effects

Controlling for capital accumulation from per capita income growth, this paper shows robust scale effects on total factor productivity growth. The estimated speeds of technology catching up are around 2 percent per year. In addition, the empirical analysis confirms the catching up theory, in which the initial relative backwardness and policy variables conducive to technology adoption are statistically significant. RID="*" ID="*" This is a revised part of Ph.D. thesis at Stanford University. I would like to thank the committee members, Charles I. Jones, Anne O. Krueger, and Paul Romer as well as Ronald Findlay, Ronald I. Mckinnon, Yasuyuki Sawada, Robert Sinclair, a referee and seminar participants at Stanford University, the Pacific Rim Allied Economic Organizations Conference, the East Asian Economic Association Conference, and the 8th World Congress.     

Endogenous growth cycles in an overlapping generations model with investment gestation lags

Summary. A simple overlapping generations model with investment gestation lags is constructed. The model shows that, if the technology is of the AK type with capital-deepening externalities, the existence of investment gestation lags always generates permanent cyclical fluctuations in the economic growth rate. The mean growth rate is shown to be positive if the external effect is strong. The model also shows that, if the production technology takes the Cobb-Douglas form, there exists a unique steady state in which the economy exhibits neither cyclical fluctuations nor long-run growth.Received: 3 July 2003, Revised: 3 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: E32, B13. Correspondence to: Akiomi KitagawaAkiomi Kitagawa, Akihisa Shibata: The authors would like to thank Yasushi Iwamoto, Kazuo Mino, an anonymous referee and seminar participants at the Macroeconomics Workshop for their helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan is gratefully acknowledged.     

Fertility,human capital and the wealth of families

Summary An overlapping generations model with parental altruism is examined. The existence of the optimal value function in a model with an endogenous discount rate is proven. Two development regimes are produced: a high fertility, low income and no growth steady state, and a perpetual growth equilibrium with low fertility and rising income.This paper is adapted from my dissertation. I would like to thank the members of my dissertation committee for helpful comments and suggestions, Messrs, Gary S. Becker, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Kevin M. Murphy and Sherwin Rosen. I'd like to thank Brooks Pierce, Paul Romer, Ken Judd, Beth Ingram, Ed Prescott and Fernando Alvarez. I also thank the workshop participants of the University of Chicago, University of Pennsylvania, University of Toronto, University of Rochester, University of Washington, Penn State University, University at Buffalo, SUNY, Columbia University and University of Iowa.     

Green national accounting with a changing population

Summary. Following Arrow et al. (2003), this paper considers green national accounting when population is changing and instantaneous well-being depends both on per capita consumption and population size. Welfare improvement is shown to be indicated by an expanded "genuine savings indicator", taking into account the value of population growth, or by an expanded measure of real NNP growth. Under CRS, the measures can be related to the value of per capita stock changes and per capita NNP growth, using a result due to Arrow et al. (2003). The results are compared to those arising when instantaneous well-being depends only on per capita consumption.Received: 30 January 2003, Revised: 31 March 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D60, D90, O47, Q01.This paper is inspired by the recent investigation of the genuine savings criterion and the value of population by Arrow et al. (2003). I thank Kenneth Arrow, Partha Dasgupta, Lawrence Goulder, and a referee for helpful discussions and comments. I gratefully acknowledge the hospitality of the Stanford University research initiative on the Environment, the Economy and Sustainable Welfare, and financial support from the Hewlett Foundation through this research initiative.     

Real and nominal exchange rate variability

Keynote lecture presented to the annual convention of the Austrian Economic Association in Vienna, October 5 and 6, 1989. I would like to thank Paul De Grauwe, Helmut Frisch, and other participants at the convention for their comments and suggestions. I would also like to thank Jack Glen for providing the monthly exchange rate data used in Table 1.     

Recursive utility and the rate of impatience

Summary This paper studies the role of impatience in a model with recursively defined preferences. A method is introduced whereby the rate of impatience can be parametrically adjusted for a given aggregator. Using lattice programming and Topkis' Theorem (1978) sufficient conditions are discovered to guarantee that a reduction in the rate of impatience will lead to greater capital stocks in every period.I would like to thank my advisor John H. Boyd III for his encouragement at several steps along the way. I would also like to thank P. Dutta, Raghu Sundaram and William Thompson for several helpful suggestions. Finally, I have benefited tremendously from the advice of an anonymous referee. This article reflects the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Trade Commission or any individual Commissioner.     

Is Kreps-Porteus utility distinguishable from intertemporal expected utility?

Summary In a Lucas (1978) model, with a Kreps-Porteus (1978) nonexpected utility, the following property of equilibrium holds generically in the space of finite-state, Markov output growth rate processes: equilibrium price of equity is distinct from that implied by any intertemporally additive expected utility satisfying specified regularity conditions. In that sense the more general utility functions are observationally distinguishable from the standard expected utility specification.I would like to thank Larry G. Epstein for posing to me the problem studied in this paper and for many suggestions and comments. I am also grateful to Darrell Duffie for helpful suggestions. I am responsible for errors. This papers is part of my Ph.D. thesis at University of Toronto.     

Can rational individuals keep money under their mattresses forever?

Summary Conditions are given for an infinite horizon consumption-savings model under which savings are bounded away from 0 with probability 1 even in the long-run. That is, with probability 1 there exists a timeT and a minimum level of savingsS such fort > T savings will always be greater thanS. I would like to thank Graziella Bertocchi, Oded Galor, Basilis Gidas, Gil Skillman, David Weil and seminar participants at Brown University. I am also very grateful to an anonymous referee for many useful suggestions.     

From rent seeking to human capital: a model where resource shocks cause transitions from stagnation to growth

Abstract.  We present a growth model where agents divide time between rent seeking in the form of resource competition and working in a human capital sector. The latter is interpreted as trade or manufacturing. Rent seeking exerts negative externalities on the productivity of human capital. Adding shocks, in the form of fluctuations in the size of the contested resource, the model can replicate a long phase with stagnant incomes and high levels of rent seeking, interrupted by small, failed growth spurts, eventually followed by a permanent transition to a sustained growth path where rent seeking vanishes in the limit. The model also generates a rise and fall of the so-called natural resource curse: before the takeoff, an increase in the size of the contested resource has a positive effect on incomes; shortly after the takeoff, the effect is negative; and on the balanced growth path the growth rate of per capita income is independent of resource shocks.     

Optimal balanced growth in a general multi-sector endogenous growth model with constant returns

I will study a multi-sector endogenous growth model with general constant returns to scale technologies and demonstrate the existence, uniqueness and the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium. I will first demonstrate the existence of a balanced growth equilibrium, by showing that the balanced growth rate associated with the balanced growth equilibrium is solely determined by solving a Frobenius root problem of the price equations derived from the Euler equations and the property of the nonsubstitution theorem. Then I will show the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium without any capital intensity conditions, which is a generalized property proved in the two-sector endogenous growth models by de Guevara et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 21, 115–143, 1997), Bond et al. (J Econ Theory 68, 149–173 1996) and Mino (Int Eco Rev 37, 227–251 1996). The theorem clearly implies that the balanced growth equilibrium has a transition path in the neighborhood of the balanced growth equilibrium. The paper was presented at the conferences “Irregular Growth: Beyond Balanced Growth” held on June 19–21, 2003 in Paris and “Economic Growth and Distribution: On the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations” held on June 16–18, 2004 in Lucca, Italy. From the discussion with Alain Venditti at CNRS-GREQAM, Gerhard Sorger at University of Vienna and the conference participants, I have been benefited much by writing this paper. Especially Alain Venditte had given me a chance to take a look at his unpublished paper titled ” Indeterminacy and the Role of Factor Substitutability” jointly written with Kazuo Nishimura at Kyoto University and published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 8. The author also would like to thank an anonymous referee for useful suggestions.     

The rate of convergence of continuous fictitious play★

Summary The rate of convergence to Nash equilibrium of continuous fictitious play is determined for a generic set of utilities and initial beliefs in 2 x 2 games. In addition, an example is provided comparing the rate of convergence of discrete fictitious play to the rate for continuous fictitious play. Finally, the convergent dynamic of fictitious play is related to the nonconvergent gradient process dynamic in 2 x 2 games.I would like to thank Jim Jordan for many helpful discussions and for detailed comments on this paper. I also thank an anonymous referee for several helpful suggestions.     

Almost sure convergence to zero in stochastic growth models

This paper considers the resource constraint commonly used in stochastic one-sector growth models. Shocks are not required to be i.i.d. It is shown that any feasible path converges to zero exponentially fast almost surely under a certain condition. In the case of multiplicative shocks, the condition means that the shocks are sufficiently volatile. Convergence is faster the larger their volatility, and the smaller the maximum average product of capital.I would like to thank Santanu Roy, John Stachurski, Lars J. Olson, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. The general result in section 2 owes much to the referee’s comments on an earlier version of this paper. Financial support from the 21 Century COE Program at GSE and RIEB, Kobe University is gratefully acknowledged.     

Social structure and consumption: on the diffusion of consumer good innovation

This paper presents a simple evolutionary model to study the diffusion patterns of product innovations for consumer goods. Following a Veblenian theme, we interpret consumption as a social activity constrained by social norms and class structure. Societies that allow for more behavioral variety will experience faster adoption of new consumer goods. We also find that the speed of diffusion as well as the saturation levels reached depend greatly on the structure of a society. Combining these two effects, we conclude that a social structure displaying behavioral variety and an even class structure fares better than any other social set-up in terms of the speed of adoption of product innovations and product variety. JEL Classification: D11, O31 This paper has benefited from comments by Robin Cowan and seminar participants at the University of Economics in Vienna, the Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT), University of Maastricht, participants of the EMAEE 2003 Conference in Augsburg, Germany as well as the Schumpeter Conference 2004 in Milan, Italy. We also would like to thank two anonymous referees for their constructive criticism and suggestions. The usual disclaimers apply. Correspondence to: A. Reinstaller     

Firm heterogeneity and Ricardian comparative advantage within and across sectors

This paper incorporates Melitz’s Econometrica (71:1695–1725, 2003) heterogeneous-firm trade model in the Ricardian model of comparative advantage with a continuum of sectors introduced by Dornbusch et al. (Am Econ Rev 67(5), 823–839, 1977). In particular, we characterise the equilibrium outcomes when neither sectors nor countries are symmetric. We find that trade patterns can follow Ricardian comparative advantage, while wage rates are proportional to market size due to a home market effect. Interestingly, trade liberalisation hurts the large country but benefits the small one by reducing the number of sectors with two-way trade and expanding those with specialised (one-way) trade. I would like to thank Mike Artis, Richard Baldwin, Frederic Robert-Nicoud, Matthias Helble, Giovanni Facchini, Thierry Verdier and a referee for their helpful comments and suggestions. Also I would like to thank Mike Artis for his excellent proof reading.     

The Role of State Fiscal Policy in State Economic Growth

Do state policy makers have the ability to affect a state's rate of economic growth? This article examines one possible source of growth and per capita output level disparities by studying the role that state taxation and public expenditure decisions play in fostering economic development. Using pooled annual U.S. state‐level data from 1972 to 1998, a fixed‐effects model is employed to examine the effects of changing tax rates on both state per capita output levels and growth rates. The results indicate that higher tax rates negatively influence short‐run state economic growth, which lowers state output levels. However, long‐run growth is unaffected by changes in state tax rates, even after adjusting for the effects of initial per capita output levels, state expenditures, and aid from the federal government. Nor do changes in state public spending rates and federal aid permanently alter state growth rates, implying that state fiscal policies have only transitory effects on state growth. (JEL H71, O40, R11)     

Disequilibrium and asymmetric price adjustment the case of the Swedish timber market

The major question raised in this paper is whether or not the Swedish timber market is in a state of disequilibrium. In recent discussions it has been claimed that the industry has been constrained in production because of timber shortage. In this paper I abandon the assumption of equality between demand and supply. The econometric model is based on a partial price adjustment model which allows for asymmetric adjustment. The test of equilibrium versus disequilibrium supports disequilibrium.This study was supported financially by grants from the research program private forestry at the Swedish Institute of Agricultural Engineering. I would like to thank Karl-Gustaf Löfgren for his insightful comments on earlier drafts. In addition, I would like to thank three anonymous referees for many useful suggestions.     

Strategic Firm Behavior Under Average-Revenue-Lagged Regulation

Price caps have been shown to have incentive properties superior to traditional rate of return regulation. Average-revenue-lagged regulation (ARL) is attractive in that steady-state prices are known to be efficient. We show that the ARL scheme can be manipulated by the firm so as to yield the unregulated global profit maximum. While tests exist that can provide the regulator with evidence of this strategic behavior, we also demonstrate that the unregulated global profit maximum will not be attainable if Laspeyres (L) regulation is employed.Jel classification: L43, L51I would like to thank Michael Crew and an anonymous referee for their extremely helpful suggestions.     

Human Capital Accumulation In the Middle-Income Country and World Trade*

I construct a dynamic three-country model of trade and growth in which a worker determines how long he takes training. the path of human capital accumulation of a worker is analyzed. I consider the case in which per capita human capital grows in the middle-income country while it stagnates in the high-income and low-income countries. Effects of the middle-income country's growth are studied.