经济民主与社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义:基于生产方式视角的分析

长期以来,作为社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义的主要载体,经济民主的作用并不明显。出现这一现象的原因有二:在理论上,学界关于经济民主的论述强调生产关系视角而忽视生产方式视角。这样的把握方式导致经济民主体系处于悬置的状态;在现实中,将美国型市场经济视为唯一的参照系导致具有后福特主义色彩的经济民主无法进入政策议程。本文认为,以生产方式视角下的经济民主为中心,有选择、有秩序地推进经济民主是当下的现实选择。     

Micro foundations for meso and macro economic theory

The natures of rational thought and rational lives are described as the basis of an adaptive economizing theory which presents an alternative microeconomic foundation contrasting with but complementary to optimal control theory for modeling mesoeconomic order. Contrastingly, that micro foundation seems to imply the inappropriateness of representing macro data as an optimal economic agent. Rather, direct representation of the emergent causal order in the macroeconomic data is suggested.

Quantifying economic sustainability: Implications for free-enterprise theory, policy and practice

In a previous paper (Ulanowicz, Goerner, Lietaer, and Gomez, 2009), we combined thermodynamic, network, and information theoretic measures with research on real-life ecosystems to create a generalized, quantitative measure of sustainability for any complex, matter/energy flow system. The current paper explores how this metric and its related concepts can be used to provide a new narrative for long-term economic health and sustainability. Based on a system's ability to maintain a crucial balance between two equally essential, but complementary factors, resilience and efficiency, this generic explanation of the network structure needed to maintain long-term robustness provides the missing theoretical explanation for what constitutes healthy development and the mathematical means to differentiate it quantitatively from mere growth. Matching long-standing observations of sustainable vitality in natural ecosystems and living organisms, the result is a much clearer, more accurate understanding of the conditions needed for free-enterprise networks to produce the kind of sustainable vitality everyone desires, one which enhances and reliably maintains the health and well-being of all levels of global civilization as well as the planet.     

Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation

Abstract

Objectives:

The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes.     

The regionalization of indian politics and its implications for economic reform

Is political decentralization an impetus for economic liberalism, or are state and local governments impediments to a rigorous reform process? This article describes India's federal system, the growth of regional parties and governments, the changing balance of power between India's state and central governments, and the deterioration of state administrations, then assesses the economic reform and human resource policies of the states. The factors which slow the pace of reforms (politically unstable governments, fiscal populism, organized local interests, patronage and rents for party and government officials) and those that push for reforms (fiscal deficits, the need for investments in infrastructures, and inter-state competition for private investment) are analyzed.     

On evolutionary technological change and economic growth: Lakatos as a starting point for appraisal

This paper proposes a discussion on evolutionary technological change and economic growth theory, using the Lakatosian Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes as an appraisal criterion. Since the persistence of some inflexibility in this approach made it difficult to capture fundamental features of the scientific undertaking at hand, an alternative hypothesis was explored, that developed by Hoover (Scientific research program or tribe? A joint appraisal of Lakatos and the new classical macroeconomics. In: de Marchi N, Blaug M (eds) Appraising economic theories: studies in the methodology of research programmes. Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1991). This latter framework is used here not as a formal methodology but rather as a language to find patterns in these theories. This exercise evolved then towards a number of considerations on the confrontation between these evolutionary theories particularly in terms of that which can be seen (in a loose sense) as their “rival research programme”, the new neoclassical growth models.     

Anticipating Nelson and Winter: Jack Downie's theory of evolutionary economic change

An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change , by Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter continues to have great influence on evolutionary economic thought. While their modeling techniques and the breadth of their vision for evolutionary theorising must be seen as seminal and effective innovation in economic theory, they were not the first inventors of such a theory. Close examination reveals that much of the economic theory was anticipated by Jack Downie whose book, The Competitive Process, was published in 1958. The extent of anticipation is remarkable, with not merely the two elements of population ecology, selection and mutation, but the way in which they are theorised to work being replicated by Nelson and Winter.     

A note on the theory and measurement of trust in explaining differences in economic growth

This paper takes issue with the trend to attribute differencesin economic growth rates to differences in interpersonal trust.I discuss the World Values Survey (WVS) measure that is usedto operationalise trust at the macro level. I hypothesise thatthere is a mismatch between the theoretical argument and theempirical operationalisation of trust. Instead of measuringtrust, the WVS measure may instead proxy the well-functioningof institutions. I provide circumstantial evidence for thisthesis by a principal components analysis of trust and institutionsand a robustness test of Zak and Knack's (2001. Trust and growth,Economic Journal, vol. 111, 295–321) seminal study ontrust and economic growth.     

The quantity theory of money and its long-run implications

This paper examines three propositions implied by the quantity theory of money, namely, the neutrality hypothesis, the Fisher hypothesis and the monetary approach to exchange rate determination for six developed countries within a dynamic framework, which incorporates the long-run proposition as its steady-state solution while allowing for short-run deviation from the hypothesized long-run relationships to take place. The joint hypothesis that all three propositions are satisfied simultaneously is supported only for two countries.     

Accounting for economic evolution: Fitness and the population method

The theme of this paper is the general population dynamics of evolutionary processes, and, in particular, a number of accounting concepts that are central to any understanding of evolutionary processes of the variation-cum-selection retention kind. A population perspective, for example, turns out to be crucial to the study of the competitive process in economic systems defined at the level of industries, sectors and markets. Business rivalry, underpinned by differential innovative activity, is the basis of the differential survival and growth of competing economic activities and the strategies deployed to create sustainable differences in competitive selection characteristics are at the core of the capitalist dynamic interpreted as an adaptive, evolutionary process. This kind of evolutionary argument is necessarily concerned with growth rate dynamics and the explanation of the diversity of growth rates across entities in a population. However, the following discussion does not provide any causal explanation of economic evolution in terms of the determinants of growth rate differences, rather it provides a bookkeeping scheme in which different causal theories may be set and compared. Growth dynamics and structural change are the two central features of variation/selection processes within populations and I explore them in terms of three themes: namely, Logistic Growth Accounting; Competition Accounting; and, the Price Theorem. The unifying theme that links all three is their relation to the population method in evolutionary theory.      

我国农村民间金融对经济发展的影响与对策分析

我国农村民间金融问题，近来已引起人们越来越多的关注和讨论。本文首先从正反两方面对农村民间金融对经济发展的影响进行了分析，并阐述了农村民间金融存在与发展的必要性，在最后提出了相应的结论与建议。     

The fragility of a discipline when a model has monopoly status

We consider the consequences of a scientific literature with only one model of an important phenomenon. The falsification of the model would mean falsification of the science. Scientists who would prefer not to have their discipline falsified will be tempted to find ad hoc explanations to excuse the failure. To test this hypothesis we propose a study of the economic forecasts of the comparative Soviet and American growth rates in the years before a public choice model of central planning was a viable alternative to the public interest model. JEL Code A11, B23 Earlier versions of the paper were presented at the University of Manitoba Economics Department Retreat in October 2005 and at the Center for Study of Public Choice Wednesday Seminar in November 2005. We thank the participants for their suggestions. All the remaining errors are our responsibility.     

Hegel's theory of economic nationalism: political economy in the Philosophy of Right

The author explores Hegel's theory of economic nationalism in the Philosophy of Right. In that work, Hegel incorporates economics within a systematic theory of the nation-state. Hegel argues that both capitalism and nationalism are the products of the state, which emancipates human capacities by founding and securing individual rights. Capitalism, however, is an inherently self contradictory social phenomenon to which Hegel responds in a sophisticated manner, one eschewing those economic ideologies which subsequently dominated modern economic thought. Moreover, his response differs fundamentally from other supposed defenders of economic nationalism. Unlike the rationalist Fichte, that other great German defender of a national economics, Hegel paves the way to a scientific understanding of the relationship between the modern economy and the nation-state, in other words, a theory of economic nationalism.     

Efficiency, depth and growth: Quantitative implications of finance and growth theory

We develop a parsimonious finance and endogenous growth model with microeconomic frictions in entrepreneurship and a role for credit constraints. We demonstrate that though an efficiency–growth relation will always exist, the efficiency–depth–growth relation may not. This has implications for the connection between the theory and empirics of finance and growth. We go on to ask whether the model can account for some historical trends in growth, financial depth and financial efficiency for the UK over the period 1850–1913. The best model of finance and growth is one that departs from the standard depth–growth link.     

中国碳排放强度与影响因素的关联分析

碳排放强度与影响因素的关联程度,直接影响正确判断和把握碳排放强度的发展方向。通过分析碳排放强度及其影响因素的灰色关联度大小,来制定控制碳排放强度的短期和长期政策。文章基于美国橡树岭国家实验室二氧化碳信息分享中心(Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center,CDIAC)提供的我国2000-2011年全国碳排放量数据,核算出中国各年度的碳排放强度,通过采用灰色系统理论中灰色关联分析方法,分别从静态、动态的视角研究中国碳排放强度与技术进步、人口、经济增长、产业结构、能源价格以及城镇化率的关联关系,取得的研究结果表明,技术进步是影响我国碳排放强度的主要因素,其次是产业结构和人口;技术进步对碳排放强度的绝对关联关系和相对关联关系都是最大;能源价格影响碳排放强度的相对关联度较高,但是能源价格的绝对影响因素较低。因此中国应该在发展低碳经济建设的同时,综合考量各个影响因素,积极调整相关政策,科学实现我国碳减排目标。     

设备选型的技术经济分析

在企业建设和发展过程中,设备选型是一个重要环节,制定先进、适用、合理的设备选型方法,是企业设备管理部门的重要任务.论文从技术和经济两个方面阐述了设备选型应遵循的原则,并进行了方案选择的技术经济分析,为企业设备选择提供了经济可行的方法.     

Coevolution of economic behaviour and institutions: towards a theory of institutional change

Traditionally, economics has regarded institutions, notably norms and regulations, as fixed or exogenous. Surprisingly few insights on institutional evolution from natural and social sciences have made their way into economics. This article gives an overview of evolutionary theories of institutions in biology, sociology, anthropology and economics. These theories are subsequently compared with non-evolutionary theories of institutions. Next, the insights and approaches are integrated into a framework for analysis of institutions based on the notion of coevolution.JEL Classification: B52, D10, D70, D64, Z13J.C.J.M. van den Bergh     

Validation of economic and health outcomes simulation model of type 2 diabetes mellitus (ECHO-T2DM)

Abstract

Objective:

This study constructed the Economic and Health Outcomes Model for type 2 diabetes mellitus (ECHO-T2DM), a long-term stochastic microsimulation model, to predict the costs and health outcomes in patients with T2DM. Naturally, the usefulness of the model depends upon its predictive accuracy. The objective of this work is to present results of a formal validation exercise of ECHO-T2DM.

Methods:

The validity of ECHO-T2DM was assessed using criteria recommended by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research/Society for Medical Decision Making (ISPOR/SMDM). Specifically, the results of a number of clinical trials were predicted and compared with observed study end-points using a scatterplot and regression approach. An F-test of the best-fitting regression was added to assess whether it differs statistically from the identity (45°) line defining perfect predictions. In addition to testing the full model using all of the validation study data, tests were also performed of microvascular, macrovascular, and survival outcomes separately. The validation tests were also performed separately by type of data (used vs not used to construct the model, economic simulations, and treatment effects).

Results:

The intercept and slope coefficients of the best-fitting regression line between the predicted outcomes and corresponding trial end-points in the main analysis were ?0.0011 and 1.067, respectively, and the R² was 0.95. A formal F-test of no difference between the fitted line and the identity line could not be rejected (p?=?0.16). The high R² confirms that the data points are closely (and linearly) associated with the fitted regression line. Additional analyses identified that disagreement was highest for macrovascular end-points, for which the intercept and slope coefficients were 0.0095 and 1.225, respectively. The R² was 0.95 and the estimated intercept and slope coefficients were 0.017 and 1.048, respectively, for mortality, and the F-test was narrowly rejected (p?=?0.04). The sub-set of microvascular end-points showed some tendency to over-predict (the slope coefficient was 1.095), although concordance between predictions and observed values could not be rejected (p?=?0.16).

Limitations:

Important study limitations include: (1) data availability limited one to tests based on end-of-study outcomes rather than time-varying outcomes during the studies analyzed; (2) complex inclusion and exclusion criteria in two studies were difficult to replicate; (3) some of the studies were older and reflect outdated treatment patterns; and (4) the authors were unable to identify published data on resource use and costs of T2DM suitable for testing the validity of the economic calculations.

Conclusions:

Using conventional methods, ECHO-T2DM simulated the treatment, progression, and patient outcomes observed in important clinical trials with an accuracy consistent with other well-accepted models. Macrovascular outcomes were over-predicted, which is common in health-economic models of diabetes (and may be related to a general over-prediction of event rates in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study [UKPDS] Outcomes Model). Work is underway in ECHO-T2DM to incorporate new risk equations to improve model prediction.     

The self and its interests in classical political economy

Because economic affairs involve individual action, they must be understood on the basis of a theory which is both subjective, depending on a conception of individual decision-making and especially private interest, and objective, demonstrating how the objective forces of a system of interaction including a system of production and reproduction shape outcomes of individual action. Economic theory, then, requires a conception of the individual agent or subject of economic activity. In this essay, I explore this conception as it develops in the classical theory exemplified by the work of Adam Smith and Karl Marx.