经济民主与社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义:基于生产方式视角的分析

长期以来,作为社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义的主要载体,经济民主的作用并不明显。出现这一现象的原因有二:在理论上,学界关于经济民主的论述强调生产关系视角而忽视生产方式视角。这样的把握方式导致经济民主体系处于悬置的状态;在现实中,将美国型市场经济视为唯一的参照系导致具有后福特主义色彩的经济民主无法进入政策议程。本文认为,以生产方式视角下的经济民主为中心,有选择、有秩序地推进经济民主是当下的现实选择。     

Micro foundations for meso and macro economic theory

The natures of rational thought and rational lives are described as the basis of an adaptive economizing theory which presents an alternative microeconomic foundation contrasting with but complementary to optimal control theory for modeling mesoeconomic order. Contrastingly, that micro foundation seems to imply the inappropriateness of representing macro data as an optimal economic agent. Rather, direct representation of the emergent causal order in the macroeconomic data is suggested.

The organisation for economic cooperation and development

The global financial and economic crisis has prompted some scholars to suggest that a fundamental regulatory shift away from neoliberalism will take place – both in general and in the field of EU competition regulation. This paper shows that so far no radical break with the neoliberal type of competition regulation is heaving into sight. It sets out to explain this from the vantage point of a critical political economy perspective, which identifies the circumstances under which a crisis can result in a regulatory paradigm shift. Contrasting the current situation with the shift in EC/EU competition regulation after the crisis in the 1970s, the paper argues that the preconditions for a fundamental shift in this issue area are not present this time around. Several reasons account for this: the current crisis has been construed by economic and political elites as a crisis within and not of neoliberal capitalism; the social power configuration underpinning the neoliberal order remains unaltered; no clear counter-project has surfaced; the European Commission has been (and remains) in a position to oppose radical changes; and finally, there are no signs of a wider paradigm shift in the EU's regulatory architecture.     

Understanding the demand-side of economic change: a contribution to formal evolutionary theorizing

An outstanding fact of capitalist change in the last few centuries is the ongoing emergence of new consumption alternatives which accompany income and productivity growth in expanding economies. Far from satiating consumers, exponential economic growth seems to stimulate human desires by providing novelty and variety embodied in a persuasive flow of unsettling goods. Although this is a well-known fact characteristic of capitalist change, little attention has been paid by modern growth theorists to the understanding of demand-side phenomena related to the increasing significance of consumption activities in our societies. Against this background, in this article, we show that as soon as we start drawing the demand-side contour of economic change, new phenomena appear which enrich our understanding of economic growth and structural change. By using ‘replicator dynamics’ systems, consumption dynamics are formally linked to the ongoing generation of innovations in capitalist economies. Certain emergent properties concerning economic growth and structural change and several policy implications follow.     

Quantifying economic sustainability: Implications for free-enterprise theory, policy and practice

In a previous paper (Ulanowicz, Goerner, Lietaer, and Gomez, 2009), we combined thermodynamic, network, and information theoretic measures with research on real-life ecosystems to create a generalized, quantitative measure of sustainability for any complex, matter/energy flow system. The current paper explores how this metric and its related concepts can be used to provide a new narrative for long-term economic health and sustainability. Based on a system's ability to maintain a crucial balance between two equally essential, but complementary factors, resilience and efficiency, this generic explanation of the network structure needed to maintain long-term robustness provides the missing theoretical explanation for what constitutes healthy development and the mathematical means to differentiate it quantitatively from mere growth. Matching long-standing observations of sustainable vitality in natural ecosystems and living organisms, the result is a much clearer, more accurate understanding of the conditions needed for free-enterprise networks to produce the kind of sustainable vitality everyone desires, one which enhances and reliably maintains the health and well-being of all levels of global civilization as well as the planet.     

Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation

Abstract

Objectives:

The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes.     

The regionalization of indian politics and its implications for economic reform

Is political decentralization an impetus for economic liberalism, or are state and local governments impediments to a rigorous reform process? This article describes India's federal system, the growth of regional parties and governments, the changing balance of power between India's state and central governments, and the deterioration of state administrations, then assesses the economic reform and human resource policies of the states. The factors which slow the pace of reforms (politically unstable governments, fiscal populism, organized local interests, patronage and rents for party and government officials) and those that push for reforms (fiscal deficits, the need for investments in infrastructures, and inter-state competition for private investment) are analyzed.     

The democratic (dis)advantage: The conditional impact of democracy on credit risk and sovereign default

Many have argued that democracies are able to make credible commitments to repay their debts and consequently enjoy higher sovereign credit ratings. In contrast to this expectation, I argue that the advantage of democracies in credit ratings is conditional on the countries' level of financial vulnerability and adjustment needs. Because democracies have more diffuse decision-making and are more accountable to the public, they encounter greater difficulty than autocracies in passing unpopular economic adjustment measures. Thus, I argue that democracies with high debt levels and low foreign reserve assets experience worse credit outcomes, whereas democracies with low vulnerability experience more positive outcomes. In a sample of up to 96 developing countries, I show that democracies have worse credit ratings and CDS Spreads and are more likely to default than their autocratic counterparts when foreign reserves are low relative to external debt. Notably, I also show that large debt burdens increase credit risk mainly in more democratic countries. I further test the causal pathway of the democratic advantage by constructing democracy scores of “market-friendly” and “adjustment-difficulty” democracy, finding that democracy worsens debt outcomes due to adjustment difficulty. These findings help to revise and clarify the causal logic surrounding the democratic advantage hypothesis.     

高速铁路对城市群经济发展格局的影响及其作用机制

本文详细阐述了高铁开通对城市群发展的影响机理,以2005-2018年中国五大城市群92个地级市的数据为样本,从城市群视角出发,通过构建DID估计模型考察了高铁开通对经济发展格局的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：从整体城市群层面来看,高铁开通提升了五大城市群的经济增长水平,并缩小了城市群经济差距;从分城市群层面来看,高铁开通对每个城市群的经济增长均产生了正向效应,并显著地缩小了京津冀、长江三角和珠三角城市群的经济差距,有利于实现经济一体化;人才集聚、资本集聚、技术创新在高铁开通影响经济发展格局的过程中起着中介作用。     

Asset prices and economic fluctuations: The implications of stochastic volatility

This paper investigates whether the multi-factor stochastic volatility of stock returns is related to economic fluctuations and affects asset prices. We address these issues in a dynamic Fama-French three-factor volatility model framework. Consistent with the ICAPM with stochastic volatility (Campbell et al., 2017), we find that the conditional volatility of the size and value factors is significantly related to economic uncertainty. These volatilities are also significant pricing factors. The out-of-sample forecasting analysis further reveals that the conditional volatility can predict stock returns and deliver economic gain in asset allocation. Our analysis sharpens the understanding on the link between the stock market and economic fundamentals.     

On evolutionary technological change and economic growth: Lakatos as a starting point for appraisal

This paper proposes a discussion on evolutionary technological change and economic growth theory, using the Lakatosian Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes as an appraisal criterion. Since the persistence of some inflexibility in this approach made it difficult to capture fundamental features of the scientific undertaking at hand, an alternative hypothesis was explored, that developed by Hoover (Scientific research program or tribe? A joint appraisal of Lakatos and the new classical macroeconomics. In: de Marchi N, Blaug M (eds) Appraising economic theories: studies in the methodology of research programmes. Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1991). This latter framework is used here not as a formal methodology but rather as a language to find patterns in these theories. This exercise evolved then towards a number of considerations on the confrontation between these evolutionary theories particularly in terms of that which can be seen (in a loose sense) as their “rival research programme”, the new neoclassical growth models.     

Tipping the (Im)balance: Capital inflows,financial market structure,and banking crises

An emerging consensus among scholars and policy‐makers identifies foreign capital inflows as one of the primary determinants of banking crises in developed countries. We challenge this view by arguing that external imbalances are destabilizing only when banks face substantial competition from securities markets in the process of financial intermediation. We assemble a dataset of banking crises covering the advanced industrialized countries from 1976 to 2011 and find evidence of a conditional relationship between capital inflows, a well‐developed securities market, and the incidence of banking crises. We further explore the impact of capital inflows on banks’ actual risk taking as indicated by their capital adequacy levels and measures of insolvency risk. Our results demonstrate that prudential capital cushions tend to decline with the combination of capital inflows and prominent securities markets. We highlight the political decisions—often made during the early days of a country's financial development—that determine the relative prominence of banks vs. non‐bank financial institutions and conclude with policy recommendations.     

Adam Smith's theory of economic history and economic development

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to show that Smith has a theory of economic history grounded in a politico-economic modeling (as well as a sort of economic theoretical modeling). In terms of the politico-economic approach, in the Wealth of Nations (Book III.ii–iv) Smith tried to offer a systematic account of economic development from feudalism to capitalism in Europe. These lead to suggest that the seeming internal inconsistency between the natural and the actual courses of progress in Book III may be resolved, and that Smith may be treated as a precursor of Douglass North, who stressed an inextricable link between the polity and the economy in economic history.     

Individuality and the economic order in Hegel's Philosophy of Right

This paper examines Hegel's perspective on the market economy, paying particular attention to how the market fits into his conception of freedom. Hegel's doctrine of freedom implies that market relations realize a distinctive form of freedom; however, due to the ontological deficiencies of this freedom, it must be subsumed under a superior freedom that is realized only within the state. The paper also explains why Hegel, although an economic liberal, does not accept the basic tenets of political liberalism, and why he does not regard economic science as a tool for public policy.     

A note on the theory and measurement of trust in explaining differences in economic growth

This paper takes issue with the trend to attribute differencesin economic growth rates to differences in interpersonal trust.I discuss the World Values Survey (WVS) measure that is usedto operationalise trust at the macro level. I hypothesise thatthere is a mismatch between the theoretical argument and theempirical operationalisation of trust. Instead of measuringtrust, the WVS measure may instead proxy the well-functioningof institutions. I provide circumstantial evidence for thisthesis by a principal components analysis of trust and institutionsand a robustness test of Zak and Knack's (2001. Trust and growth,Economic Journal, vol. 111, 295–321) seminal study ontrust and economic growth.     

Anticipating Nelson and Winter: Jack Downie's theory of evolutionary economic change

An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change , by Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter continues to have great influence on evolutionary economic thought. While their modeling techniques and the breadth of their vision for evolutionary theorising must be seen as seminal and effective innovation in economic theory, they were not the first inventors of such a theory. Close examination reveals that much of the economic theory was anticipated by Jack Downie whose book, The Competitive Process, was published in 1958. The extent of anticipation is remarkable, with not merely the two elements of population ecology, selection and mutation, but the way in which they are theorised to work being replicated by Nelson and Winter.     

The quantity theory of money and its long-run implications

This paper examines three propositions implied by the quantity theory of money, namely, the neutrality hypothesis, the Fisher hypothesis and the monetary approach to exchange rate determination for six developed countries within a dynamic framework, which incorporates the long-run proposition as its steady-state solution while allowing for short-run deviation from the hypothesized long-run relationships to take place. The joint hypothesis that all three propositions are satisfied simultaneously is supported only for two countries.     

Accounting for economic evolution: Fitness and the population method

The theme of this paper is the general population dynamics of evolutionary processes, and, in particular, a number of accounting concepts that are central to any understanding of evolutionary processes of the variation-cum-selection retention kind. A population perspective, for example, turns out to be crucial to the study of the competitive process in economic systems defined at the level of industries, sectors and markets. Business rivalry, underpinned by differential innovative activity, is the basis of the differential survival and growth of competing economic activities and the strategies deployed to create sustainable differences in competitive selection characteristics are at the core of the capitalist dynamic interpreted as an adaptive, evolutionary process. This kind of evolutionary argument is necessarily concerned with growth rate dynamics and the explanation of the diversity of growth rates across entities in a population. However, the following discussion does not provide any causal explanation of economic evolution in terms of the determinants of growth rate differences, rather it provides a bookkeeping scheme in which different causal theories may be set and compared. Growth dynamics and structural change are the two central features of variation/selection processes within populations and I explore them in terms of three themes: namely, Logistic Growth Accounting; Competition Accounting; and, the Price Theorem. The unifying theme that links all three is their relation to the population method in evolutionary theory.      

我国农村民间金融对经济发展的影响与对策分析

我国农村民间金融问题，近来已引起人们越来越多的关注和讨论。本文首先从正反两方面对农村民间金融对经济发展的影响进行了分析，并阐述了农村民间金融存在与发展的必要性，在最后提出了相应的结论与建议。