Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies Toward Remote Sensing

Earlier experimental evidence indicates that some decision makers under-invest in information when it is costly. This insight is applied to the cost–benefit analysis of the provision of data obtained by satellites. In fields like agriculture, remotely sensed information of great precision can be provided to additional farmers at minimal extra costs if a service for farmers with similar information needs is set up. Here, the tendency to under-invest in information asks for creative solutions by the private sector: bankers may work together with rational producers in setting up the information service and promoting it. However, if producers financial resources are insufficient, public intervention, in the form of a free information service may be necessary.The author would like to thank an anonymous referee, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, Sean Flynn, Daniel Heller, and Carlos Lenz and participants of the Lisbon Conference of the International Atlantic Economic Society, particularly Asatoshi Maeshiro, for helpful comments.     

有限理性、新制度经济学与转型期中国民间组织

本文从新制度经济学的视角提出了一个理论框架,认为转型期中国民间组织的兴起与发展是制度环境变迁的产物,是克服有限理性的一种制度安排.文章对理性、有限理性等理念进行了梳理.说明转型期中国民间组织在建立与政府的合作互动关系、促进社会管理、提供公共服务、确保政府公共权力有序、健康运行等方面应发挥积极作用.     

从有限理性到适应性理性

“有限理性之父”西蒙以及行为经济学家卡尼曼等人对人类“理性不及”和偏离理性的非理性行为做过深入系统的描述,并卓有建树,但是他们并未阐释人类决策过程中如何对理性与非理性进行合理有效配置的内在机制。基于此,本文从认知和心智层面,提出了适应性理性的假设命题,探索性地构建了适应性理性理论的解释框架,以一个全新视角,深化了有限理性的思想和内涵,并运用其理论重新阐释了行为决策过程中的认知偏差和简捷启发式的合理性。本文认为人类的经济决策行为同样遵循“心智经济性”的原则。     

有限理性下中美投资者对财富和消费偏好的比较研究

投资和消费是人们最重要的经济决策,而投资和消费的选择是由对财富和消费的偏好决定的。在效用最大化的前提下,构建有限理性的效用函数,来比较中国和美国投资者对于消费和财富的偏好。研究的结果表明,相对中国人而言美国人是更加偏好消费的,而中国人更偏重于财富。这样的差异形成的原因可能在于中国的金融市场发达程度不如美国,中国的社会保障体系不如美国完善。     

从利他性到社会理性——利他主义经济学研究的一个综合观点

利他主义经济学的研究非常繁杂,缺乏一个统一的理论.本文提出利他行为的方向性问题,分析了基因决定论的局限,综合研究了基因选择、个体选择以及群体选择对人类个体利他行为的影响,从而形成了利他性研究的一个综合性理论.在解决利他行为方向性问题的基础上,发现人类利他行为实质上是人的社会性的体现,从而提出了社会理性概念,扩展了利他主义经济学的研究.     

有限理性、规范内化与利他行为:一个演化视角

本文沿着有限理性的理论进路,通过规范内化对利他行为做出一个解释。以往的理论通过规范提供的外在奖惩解释利他行为,但无法解释在外在奖惩不存在的情况下出现的纯利他行为。本文认为,这些利他行为可以通过规范内化来解释,而后者则是有限理性的一个自然结果。为了阐明规范内化如何产生,本文给出了一个形式化的复制者动态,其结果表明,在考虑有限理性的前提下,社会交往越复杂,人类处理复杂性的认知能力越有限,规范内化出现的可能性就越大。针对复制者动态模型的局限,本文还运用基于行为主体建模对规范内化过程进行了模拟。模拟结果显示,当人类理性计算能力相对于社会生活的复杂程度越小,规范内化出现的可能性越大,该结果与之前分析结论一致。本文的分析结果再次支持了Herbert Simon对利他行为的解释,即利他行为是人类有限理性的结果,虽然利他行为自身减少个体适应性,但由于它是规范内化所产生的一个自然结果,所以利他行为因为规范内化所具有的适应性而留存。     

Austrian Economics and Game Theory: A Stocktaking and an Evaluation

I discuss the merits and drawbacks of game theory in economics from the perspective of Austrian economics. I begin by arguing that Austrians have neglected game theory at their peril, and then suggest that game theoretic reasoning could be one way of modelling key Austrian insights. However, admittedly some aspects of game theory don't square easily with Austrian economics. Moreover, a major stumbling block for an Austrian acceptance of game theory may lie in the traditional Austrian resistance to formal methods.     

经济顺向的逻辑:方法论的一种解读

转轨国家的经济改革与发展,就是要把曾经严重扭曲的经济进程中的思想和实践所产生的意识形态与方法论、所有制与财产权利悖论以及自发性秩序与人为设计的对立,转轨到经济顺向的、历史的和逻辑的进程中来.由此,本文主要探讨了在一种观念指导下传统计划体制的起源与命令性经济体制形成的过程,以及在另一种观念指导下所形成的市场经济基本价值观和主流经济学的方法论,重点强调了经济过程的自发性秩序理念.     

民族经济学的概念含义、义理性与学术使命

正确把握民族经济学概念含义,一方面需沿着民族→民族经济→民族经济学的逻辑认知路径,将民族和经济学的含义有机组合;另一方面也需回顾此前对民族经济学和相关学科术语概念含义的经典界定。在综合回溯、比较辨析的基础上,界说民族经济学概念的含义,并简要阐述其存在的义理性和学术使命,为新形势下实施一带一路战略而制定相关民族经济政策,提供基础理论支撑。     

Decision Theory without Logical Omniscience: Toward an Axiomatic Framework for Bounded Rationality

I propose modelling boundedly rational agents as agents who are not logically omniscient—that is, who do not know all logical or mathematical implications of what they know. I show how a subjective state space can be derived as part of a subjective expected utility representation of the agent's preferences. The representation exists under very weak conditions. The representation uses the familiar language of probability, utility, and states of the world in the hope that this makes this model of bounded rationality easier to use in applications.     

有限理性视角下组织创新演进特征

阐释组织的有限理性,论述了组织创新的演进过程。突破有限理性组织的视角,剖析组织创新演进所呈现的复杂性、外部性以及路径依赖性和累积性特征,并以组织创新演进特征为依据,提出具有可操作性的、提升企业组织创新能力的建议。     

The Game Take–or–Play: A Paradox of Rationality in Simultaneous Move Games

We show that paradoxical conclusions similar to those emerging from reasonings of backward induction can arise also in simultaneous move games with incomplete information.
In a static setting, these paradoxes are particularly puzzling, because the usual attempts to avoid the backward induction solution do not work.
In a dynamic setting, there is a way out of the paradoxes, which hinges on a (possibly endogenous) uncertainty over the past behaviour of the players and does not call for a long time–horizon.     

Norms and Rationality in the Evolution of Economic Systems: A View from Asian Villages

The evolution of economic systems is viewed as a process in which various informal arrangements are experimented with for improving efficiency under changed economic environments, some of which may survive and become established as new social norms. The process is illustrated by a micro case study of Philippine villages. It reveals the ability of peasants subsisting on small farms to resolve a major disequilibrium between labour's marginal productivity and the wage rate resulting from the intro duction of modern rice technology, by creating, on the basis of their traditional experience, an appropriate institution consistent with their cultural norm. Concurrently, large estate farms were seen to arrive at an inferior outcome because of their inability to utilize the peasant community's norm, thereby demonstrating the existence of multiple equilibria
JEL Classification Numbers: D23, O17, P51     

从统计学的视角看实验经济学

实验经济学将实验的方法引入经济问题研究,是经济学方法论的一次重大变革,实验方法正逐渐成为经济学研究的一种重要工具。然而,由于实验经济学尚处于发展的初始阶段,对于经济实验的方法还很少有人进行深入的研究。文章指出,实验经济学虽然是一个全新的研究领域,但经济实验本质上是一种统计实验,应遵循统计实验研究的基本方法和基本规律。实验经济学可以借鉴统计学的研究方法,得到更大、更快的发展。