Political versus economic institutions in the growth process

After a decade of research on the relationship between institutions and growth, there is no consensus about the exact way in which these two variables interact. In this paper we re-examine the role that institutions play in the growth process using data for developed and developing economies over the period 1975–2005. Our results indicate that the data is best described by an econometric model with two growth regimes. Political institutions are the key determinant of which regime an economy belongs to, while economic institutions have a direct impact on growth rates within each regime. These findings support the hypothesis that political institutions are one of the deep causes of growth, setting the stage in which economic institutions and standard covariates operate.     

Institutions,human capital,and growth: The institutional mechanism

This paper contributes to the debate on the relationship between human capital, institutions, and economic growth. The paper first develops a micro-foundation model linking institutions to human capital. The advantage of our modeling strategy is that the human capital accumulation function is derived from an endogenous process. The theoretical model shows that improvements in the quality of institutions foster human capital accumulation, decrease income inequality and change the historical development path. The paper uses cross-country panel data from 1965 to 2005 to test some of the model's propositions and finds that deep structures or structural institutions – which are very persistent and rooted on the historical development path of an economy – affect long-term economic performance, while political institutions are uncorrelated with productivity and long-term economic growth. The empirical estimates also show that growth of physical and human capital – instead of levels – determines long-run economic growth.     

A great wall of patents: What is behind China's recent patent explosion?

China's patent surge, documented in this paper, is seemingly paradoxical given the country's weak record of protecting intellectual property rights. Using a firm-level data set that spans the population of China's large and medium-size industrial enterprises, this paper explores the factors that account for China's rising patent activity. While the intensification of research and development in the Chinese economy tracks with patenting activity, it explains only a fraction of the patent explosion. The growth of foreign direct investment in China is prompting Chinese firms to file for more patent applications. Amendments to the patent law that favor patent holders and ownership reform that has clarified the assignment of property rights also emerge as significant sources of China's patent boom. These results are robust to alternative estimation strategies that account for over-dispersion in the patent counts data and firm heterogeneity.     

Financial liberalization,financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia

The objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small open economy of Malaysia. Using time series data from 1960 to 2001, we conduct cointegration and causality tests to assess the finance-growth link by taking the real interest rate and financial repression into account. The empirical evidence suggests that financial liberalization, through removing the repressionist policies, has a favorable effect in stimulating financial sector development. Financial depth and economic development are positively related; but contrary to the conventional findings, our results support Robinson's view that output growth leads to higher financial depth in the long-run.     

Economic Development and Women's Labor Force Participation in India

India has experienced steady economic growth over the last two decades alongside a persistent decline in women's labor force participation (LFPR). This paper explores the relationship between economic development and women's labor supply using state-level data spanning the period 1983–4 to 2011–2. While several studies suggest a U-shaped relationship between development and women's labor force participation, our results suggest that at the state level, there is no systematic U-shaped relationship between level of domestic product and women's LFPR. On examining the relationship between the structure of the economy and women's economic activity, we find that it is not economic growth but rather the composition of growth that is relevant for women. Further, our results suggest that aggregate changes in the proportion of women in the workforce can be mostly attributed to the movement of the workforce across sectors rather than changes in the proportion of women workers within a sector.     

Indonesian Growth Dynamics

This paper provides an analytical narrative of Indonesian economic growth over the past two decades. Particular attention is paid to the key economic crisis events of 1997–1998 and 2008–2009, and how and why Indonesia's response to them was completely different. We emphasize and illustrate how the years 1997–1998 were a watershed in the country's economic history and political economy. We underline the country's generally good economic performance, especially the rapid recovery over the past decade, while also highlighting the fact that its economic growth has never quite matched that of the very high‐growth East Asian economies. The final section analyzes some key policy challenges, including embedding reforms in a highly fluid political environment, macroeconomic management, and “connectivity” and regional (subnational) development.     

Cambodia: Rapid Growth with Weak Institutions

This paper examines Cambodia's socioeconomic development since the early 1990s peace settlement. The country's economic growth has arguably been the fastest among post‐conflict societies, driven by the credible restoration of peace and security, large public and private capital inflows, economic openness, reasonably prudent macroeconomic management, and a dynamic, integrating neighborhood. A legacy of history and small size is that the government has limited policy space, although this has not necessarily retarded economic development. We also highlight some key challenges, including rising inequality, uneven spatial development, weak institutions, and high levels of corruption. Looking forward, we highlight the importance of strengthening supply side capabilities, broadening the benefits of growth, and developing stronger institutions and property rights.     

Modinomics: Design,Implementation, Outcomes,and Prospects

This paper presents an analysis of the key elements of Modinomics, defined as “everyone's participation, everyone's progress.” It investigates the reasons why Modinomics was necessary, the key elements of Modinomics, and how this policy was implemented. It argues that India's economic policy has had continuity since the economic reform package of 1991, so Modinomics has involved a high component of better implementation. Nevertheless, there have been some major policy changes as well. The paper discusses the deep structural reforms of demonetization and a Goods and Services Tax as well the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Act. The paper examines the record of economic growth under Modi as well as new welfare and employment programs to make economic growth more inclusive. Finally, the paper examines the medium and long‐term growth prospects for India.     

Reform Unleashed Korean Growth

Before the reform in the 1960s, twin vicious circles perpetuated the shortages of foreign exchange and labor skill, and prevented the Korean economy from realizing its considerable growth potential. The breakthrough came when the Japanese labor shortage facilitated Korean exports, after economic normalization between the two countries. The reformed institutions reduced rent‐seeking and refocused Korean managerial efforts to pioneering activities. The Korean takeoff scenario is a shared theme among all four Asian newly industrialized economies cited by Lucas (1988) as showcases.     

LAND PRICE,COLLATERAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH*

This paper extends Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997 ) to an endogenous growth model and investigates the dynamic properties of a growing economy with binding credit constraint when land is used not only as an input of production but also as collateral. There exists a balanced growth path in an economy with binding credit constraint. In response to a once and for all productivity shock, the developed model shows the propagation mechanism among output, capital, bank credit and the land price in terms of the growth rate. The model's tractability allows us to derive interesting qualitative and quantitative findings on business cycles.     

The informal economy and the growth of small enterprises in Russia1

This article uses Russian regional data to estimate the determinants of the informal economy and to examine the relationship between the informal economy and the growth of legally registered small private enterprises during the transition period. After obtaining an estimate of the size of the informal economy in each Russian region from 1992 to 1999, an analysis is performed to find whether reform progress and institutional qualities account for the informal economy. An evaluation of the links between the informal economy and the growth of small enterprises within Russia is then carried out. The findings suggest that Russia's informal economy resulted from a delay in reform and low qualities of institutions. It was found that the growth of small enterprises is positively affected by the informal economy. These results imply that the informal economy helped entrepreneurial activities to grow in the face of government failure, but these informal activities tend to become official over time.     

Institutions and growth in limited access societies

We build a dynamic political economy model with a two-class society, workers and the elite, in which the elite formation, the innovation rate and fiscal policy are endogenous. The model generates a mapping between institutions and patterns of growth consistent with empirical evidence. Ex ante, when facing constraints in choosing institutions, the elite may delegate policy control to some of its members, even though such delegation exacerbates the conflict within the elite and causes policy failures. Committing to such institutional arrangements prevents more harmful outcomes, such as rapid entry and subsequent deterioration of the elite?s economic and political power.     

Vietnamese Economy at the Crossroads: New Doi Moi for Sustained Growth

Thanks to doi moi, Vietnam was successful in escaping the poverty trap and emerged as a lower middle‐income country in the late 2000s. From that time, however, the Vietnamese economy entered a new phase, which has been characterized by slow growth, weak international competitiveness, and macroeconomic instability. Apart from short‐term problems associated with the management of increasing foreign capital, the major factors accounting for the difficulties of Vietnam's current economic phase can be attributed to the Vietnamese style of the gradualist strategy of transition from a planned to a market economy, which protects state‐owned enterprises, and consequently to the failure to respond to the rapid rise of China. For further industrialization and sustained growth, Vietnam should embrace a new doi moi that follows the efficient type of gradualist strategy, with a special focus on new reforms of state‐owned enterprises and a policy that promotes the country' s dynamic comparative advantage.     

中国海洋产业增长极选择研究

21 世纪是海洋的世纪,海洋经济在国民经济中起着举足轻重的作用,合理的发展模式对推动海洋产业经济发展尤为重要。本文以增长极理论为指导,采用不平衡发展模式、主成分分析法及聚类分析法对中国海洋产业经济增长极选择进行实证分析,结果表明：中国应以海洋渔业、滨海旅游业及海洋交通运输业作为主导产业进行发展,并确定其海洋产业增长极的地位。以此为契机,本文还进一步分析评价了海洋产业增长极的发展状况,以确定海洋产业发展战略,为中国海洋产业经济增长极的培育及国家海洋产业经济发展提供参考支撑。     

On the measurement and analysis of aggregate economic activity for China: the coincident economic indicators approach

This paper reviews some of China's high-frequency economic indicators and our principal findings on their selection and use. Our aim is to develop a composite index of coincident economic indicators (coincident economic index, CEI) which can be used to obtain timely information on the present state of the China's economy and provide an appropriate measure to analyze China's short-term macroeconomic dynamics. Notably, combining industrial production, retail sales, manufacturing employment, income of financial institutions and passenger traffic volume, they work well as the method for dating business cycles for China. It shows that, over the past two decades, there was one marked recession which occurred in 1988:8 to 1989:12. In addition to this business cycle chronology we also develop a growth cycle chronology based on the deviations from trend of the CE which shows that there have been four cyclical slowdowns since 1986. Whereas GDP growth lacks cyclical movements and appears to be dominated by trend and irregular movements, in contrast to GDP, the CEI works well as a measure of cyclical dynamics and can contribute to the analysis of short-term fluctuations of Chinese economic activity relative to its long-term growth.     

The not so dark side of trust: Does trust increase the size of the shadow economy?

This paper reports a negative relationship between the size of the shadow economy and generalized trust, in a sample of countries, both developed and developing. That relationship is robust to controlling for a large set of economic, policy, and institutional variables, to changing the estimate of the shadow economy and the estimation period, and to controlling for endogeneity. It is independent from trust in institutions and from income inequality, and is mainly present in the sample of developing countries. Those findings suggest that the tax compliance effect of trust dominates its role as a substitute for the formal legal system.     

MODELLING THE TRANSITION TOWARDS THE RENMINBI'S FULL CONVERTIBILITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA'S GROWTH

There is a widespread consensus that China needs to rebalance its export‐driven growth paradigm towards a more consumption‐based one and that such process is to be accompanied by the transition towards the renminbi's full convertibility. However, the Chinese authorities have so far acted with great caution because this transition cannot but accelerate the slowdown of China's growth which will likely occur because of other structural factors. We address these issues by means of a two‐country two‐stage (before and after the renminbi's full convertibility) model, which reproduces some qualitative features of China's growth pattern and its relationship with the United States. We analyse the extent to which altering the Chinese exchange rate regime, as well as other policies affecting sensitive social and economic issues, may impact on the short‐, medium‐ and long‐term evolution of the Chinese economy. The paper shows that by lifting the controls on the capital account and letting the currency float, the Chinese authorities will renounce those policy instruments for controlling the allocation of the national resources and the dynamics of China's economy.     

Decentralization,social capital,and regional growth: The case of the Italian North-South divide

This paper aims to show how a region's constant level of social capital may have a very different impact on its economic growth depending on whether the central or the local level of government is responsible for regional policy.Our case study is the economic performance of Northern and Southern Italy in the post-World War II period, when a long phase of regional convergence came to a sudden halt in the early 1970s. We focus on the economic effects of the 1970s institutional reforms on government decentralization and wage bargaining. Our main hypothesis is that decentralization allocates the provision of public capital to institutions, the local ones, more exposed to a territory's social capital. Since social capital is lower in the Southern regions, decentralization made their developmental policies less effective from 1970 onwards, and regional inequality increased.We build an endogenous growth model augmented to include the interaction between social capital and public investment as well as the reform of the Italian labour market. We calibrate our model using data of the Italian regions for 1951–71. Our quantitative results indicate that decentralization triggered the influence of local social capital on growth and played a central role in halting the convergence path of the low-social-capital regions.     

Understanding china's economic performance

Broadly speaking, two schools of thought have emerged to interpret China's rapid growth since 1978: the experimentalist school and the convergence school. The experimentalist school attributes China's successes to the evolutionary, experimental, and incremental nature of China's reforms. Specifically, the resulting non-capitalist institutions are claimed to be successful in (a) agriculture where land is not owned by the fanners; (b) township and village enterprises (TVEs) which are owned collectively by rural communities; and (c) state owned enterprises (SOEs) where increased competition and increased wage incentive, but not privatization, have been emphasized.

The convergence school holds that China's successes are the consequences of its institutions being allowed to converge with those of non-socialist market economies, and that China's economic structure at the start of reforms is a major explanation for the rapid growth. China had a high population density heavily concentrated in low-wage agriculture, a condition that was favorable for labor-intensive export-led growth in other parts of East Asia. The convergence school also holds that China's gradualism results primarily from a lack of consensus over the proper course, with power still divided between market reformers and old-style socialists; and that the “innovative” non-capitalist institutions are responses to China's political circumstances and not to its economic circumstances.

Perhaps the best test of the two approaches is whether China's policy choices are in fact leading to institutions harmonized with normal market economies or to more distinctive innovations. In this regard, the recent policy trend has been towards institutional harmonization rather than institutional innovation, suggesting that the government accepts that the ingredients for a dynamic market economy are already well-known.     

Financial efficiency and economic growth: The case of Spain

This paper explores the connection between financial efficiency and economic growth. First, a theoretical model is presented in which financial efficiency enhances economic growth by means of increasing the marginal productivity of a broad concept of capital. Next, some data from the Spanish economy from 1962 to 1995 are explored using cointegration techniques. The main results point to a prominent role of bank institutions in channeling funds from savings to investment. Operative inefficiency of banks has damaged economic growth by providing a smaller amount of funds to the process of development. These results also suggest the existence of imperfections in Spanish capital markets. Finally, some indicators of financial repression such as negative interest rates and inflation seem to have had a deleterious impact on economic growth.This paper is part of a broader research project financed by Fundación FIES, CECA. Comments by Caneda, Cuñado, Martínez Chacón, Pérez de Villarreal, Termes, and Villaverde are gratefully acknowledged.