New ideas on China＇s Foreign Trade Development Strategy

China has been a leader in export strategy since the reform and opening-up for trade. This has played a positive role in economic development, however, since stepping into a large country economy, entering the.WTO and the current development of economic globalization at a rapid rate, the leading export strategy has already been very difficult to adapt to the daily challenges in export because of the constant changes in domestic and international economic environment. In view of this, China should turn its strategy into one of dynamic comparative advantages with a global competitive strategy, in conformity with big country＇s economy in the economic background of globalization.     

Applying the Lessons of Asia: The IMF's Crisis Management Strategy following the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

The paper reviews the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) non-concessional lending programs following the global financial crisis, with a view to understanding how the IMF applied the lessons of the Asian crisis in designing its approach to crisis management. For this purpose, the paper focuses on the 2008 programs in Hungary, Iceland, Latvia and Ukraine – the first of its kind since the early 2000s – and compares them with the 1997 programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand. Our analysis finds the European programs better funded and their structural conditionality more focused. Other than these, the overall thrust of the programs was similar: fiscal and monetary tightening, coupled with banking reforms. The real difference was not so much about content but about philosophy. Relative to the Asian programs, the European programs were characterized by more emphasis on ownership, greater collaboration among stakeholders, more realistic assumptions and greater transparency about the risks and the logic of policy actions, and more built-in flexibility of targets and policy options. This approach to crisis management incorporated the changes that had been made since the Asian crisis in the IMF's policies and procedures to manage capital account crises more effectively.     

Performance of Thailand banks after the 1997 East Asian financial crisis

The performance of commercial banks and government-owned specialized banks in Thailand is estimated after the 1997 East Asian financial crisis. Commercial banks exhibit increasing returns to scale, whereas government-owned specialized banks exhibit decreasing returns to scale, implying further increases in bank size and market concentration in the commercial bank sector but not for government specialized banks. Cost inefficiency varies by bank and is a function of the ratio of nonperforming loans (NPLs) to total loans, equity to total assets and liquid assets to total assets, as well as the number of branches. On average, banks with fewer NPLs, that are well capitalized and with adequate liquidity are efficient. Thus, stricter rules to regulate credit risk management and ensure capital and liquidity adequacy would enhance efficiency in the banking sector. Although estimated input substitutability appears to be low, labour and loanable fund are substitutes. However, labour and physical capital as well as physical and loanable funds are complements in commercial banks. All the three inputs of labour, physical capital and loanable funds are substitutes for the government specialized banks.     

Global Financial Crisis and ASEAN: Fiscal Policy Response in the Case of Thailand and Indonesia

Sound macroeconomic and financial fundamentals, plus quick and forceful fiscal policy responses contributed to Thailand's and Indonesia's economic recovery in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This paper reviews the impacts of the recent global financial crisis on the Thai and Indonesian economies, and identifies the characteristics of the fiscal stimulus package in each economy and their implications to counter the negative impact of the global financial crisis.     

鲁比尼视野中的金融危机和经济危机

美国经济学家鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼因在西方经济学家中最早预言有可能爆发金融危机和经济危机而备受瞩目。危机爆发后,他跟踪研究,对危机提出了自己的若干独特见解。他尝试分析危机的原因,展望经济发展前景,提出应对危机的政策建议。但是,作为西方经济学家,他对危机根源等问题的认识具有明显的局限性。     

Liquidity in Asian markets: Intensity of Regional and global linkages

This study investigates cross-market linkages and the intensity of liquidity spillovers across nine Asian markets and five developed markets during 2006 to 2016. Further, the study examines the contagion caused by recent global financial crisis and its impact on the market liquidity. The direction and intensity of spillovers has been measured using forecast error variance decomposition method as suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Among the developed markets, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom significantly affect liquidity changes in Asian countries like India, China, Singapore and Japan. The results revels that on average, each Asian market receives 7% spillover from the global markets and 16% from regional markets. During the financial crisis, the average regional spillover increased to 20% and the global spillover increased to 11%. Thus, in Asia, the regional spillover is higher than the global spillover. Our results support the demand side hypothesis and suggest that it is the trade and portfolio investments that drive the liquidity spillovers. Our findings have potential implications for international investors, policy makers and market regulators.     

Introduction to “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.”

ABSTRACT

This paper offers the Introduction to the Special Issue “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.” We introduce the five papers. We distill three important lessons they offer for EU integration.     

1997年泰国金融危机与2008年越南金融风波之比较研究

跟1997年泰国金融危机相比,2008年越南所谓“金融危机”实在难以相提并论,它顶多算一次越南境内的金融风波。而且把二者拿来比较,也有诸多的困难。首先,两个事件发生的时间相差11年;其次,两个事件影响范围不可同日而语;第三,事件性质上也多有不同。之所以拿来做比较,笔者的出发点是：1、二者也有一些可比之处：如事件的起因、症状、政府处理的手法等;2、更主要的考虑是出于两次事件对于我国的改革开放具有相当的借鉴意义：在国际化与体制转型双重任务之下,我国可以分别从泰国、越南的经验教训中学到很多。     

国际金融中心未来竞争趋势与上海的战略选择

文章在批判吸收相关文献合理成分的基础上,从金融需求、金融供给和金融创新动力等三个层面分析了国际金融中心形成和发展的内在决定因素.根据文章的理论分析,全球性金融危机难以改变现代金融市场和国际金融中心演化的基本方向,危机后不同发展水平的金融中心将会采取不同的竞争策略,其中强化金融体系极化效应是当代金融中心竞争的一个显著特点,而实施动态性、主动性的风险管理将会成为实现未来金融稳定的一种重要的内生性市场机制.     

Determinants of non-life insurance expenditure in developed and developing countries: an empirical investigation

The determinants of non-life insurance expenditure in a panel data set covering 36 developed countries and 31 developing countries for the period 2000–2011 are analysed. Results of our instrumental variable analysis indicate that economic freedom, income, bank development, urbanization, culture and law systems are the key drivers of the non-life insurance expenditure across countries. However, their impacts differ significantly between the groups of developed and developing countries, suggesting that the heterogeneity among countries in terms of the level of development plays an important role. The global financial crisis is also found to influence the direction of those effects, especially in developed countries. The article yields useful policy and economic implications for governments and multinational non-life insurance companies with regard to the development of the non-life insurance sector, an important engine for economic growth and prosperity.     

Public capital in the 21st century: as productive as ever?

The global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis that followed induced a rapid deterioration in the fiscal positions of countries across the globe. In the ensuing fiscal adjustment process, public investments were severely reduced in many countries. How harmful is this for growth perspectives? Our main objective is to find out whether the importance of public capital for long run output growth has changed in recent years. To this end, we expand time series on public capital stocks for 20 OECD countries and estimate country-specific recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Results show that the effect of public capital shocks on economic growth has not increased in general, although results differ widely between countries. This suggests that the current level of public investments generally does not pose an immediate threat to potential output. Of course, this could change if low investment levels are sustained for a long time.     

The relationship between developed equity markets and the Pacific Basin's emerging equity markets

Using a trivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model with a proper control for heteroscedasticity, this paper investigates the relationships between the two largest equity markets in the world—the U.S. and Japan—and the four Asian emerging equity markets: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Evidence indicates that the links between the developed markets and the Asian emerging markets (AEMs) began to increase after the stock market crash in October 1987, and have significantly intensified since the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in July 1997.     

Dynamic welfare costs of the 1997 Asian crisis

This paper measures and investigates the welfare costs, other effects and recovery process of the 1997 Asian crisis, and evaluates the impact of the policy program supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The main findings are as follows. First, the ratio of ‘whole cost’ to the level of consumption in a hypothetical economy is high: 50% for Indonesia, 39% for Hong Kong, 36% for Korea, 30% for Thailand and 18% for Malaysia. Second, the dynamic process of ‘cost at period t’ quickly converges to 40% immediately after the crisis, though the costs for Indonesia and Hong Kong gradually increase toward 100%. Third, the IMF-supported programs in Thailand, Indonesia and Korea were implemented straight after the peak cost. Finally, the cost of the IMF-supported program was relatively inexpensive compared with the welfare cost of the crisis. The authors would like to thank Kenneth S. Chan, Makoto Saito, Yum K. Kwan, Yong Wang, Eiji Ogawa, Yoshiro Tsutsui, Yuzo Honda, Shinsuke Ikeda, Soyoung Kim, Joshua Aizenman and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and useful suggestions. Earlier versions of this paper were presented in 2003 at Osaka University and Hitotsubashi University, in 2004 at the City University of Hong Kong, Tokyo University and the Western Regional Science Association Conference (Hawaii), Western Economic Association Conference (Vancouver) and East Asian Economic Association Conference (Hong Kong). Funding from a Grant-in-Aid 16530204 from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science, Technology of Japan, the Nomura Foundation for Social Science 2005 and Kanpo Foundation 2002 supported the first-named author’s research.     

泰国新金融震荡:分析与启示

2006年底,泰国发生了一场新金融震荡,虽然时间很短,却给泰国经济金融发展造成了巨大的损失.目前我国正在大力推进金融改革开放,我国经济与世界经济的整合程度越来越高,金融风险不断增大,这就注定要求我国在推进金融改革开放这一场"智慧者的角逐"中要慎重行事,趋利避害.本文旨在对泰国新金融震荡发生的原因作深层次的探究,并从中提炼出一些对我国经济金融与社会发展有益的启示.     

Dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil: evidence from emerging East Asian stock markets

This study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between eight emerging East Asian stock markets and the US stock market and analyses the dynamic equicorrelation among these nine stock markets. We find a significant increase in the conditional correlations and equicorrelation in the first phase of the global financial crisis. We refer to this finding as contagion from the US stock market to the emerging East Asian markets. We also find an additional significant process of increasing correlations and equicorrelation (herding) in the second phase of the global financial crisis. Further, we employ two new models, namely DCCX-MGARCH (a DCC Multivariate GARCH model with exogenous variables) and DECOX-MGARCH (a dynamic equicorrelation multivariate GARCH model with exogenous variables), to identify the channels of contagion. We find that an increase in the VIX Index increases the conditional correlations and equicorrelation, while increases in TED spreads decrease the conditional correlations of six emerging East Asian countries with the USA. We compare the accuracy of the conditional correlation estimates of the DCC and DCCX models (or DECO and DECOX models) by constructing a loss function. We find that the DCCX (DECOX) model provides more accurate conditional correlation estimates than the DCC (DECO) model by extracting additional information from exogenous variables.     

Owner-managers and firm performance during the asian and global financial crises: evidence from Korea

We examine the performance of the Korean owner-managers during the 1997?1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008?2009 global financial crisis to establish whether they overcome the unexpected exterior shocks better than employed managers. We find that the owner-managers record a significantly greater performance during the crises, and especially during the latter period. Moreover, our results suggest that such a tendency comes from the owner-managers’ superior investment decisions. Our paper thus highlights the role of owner-managers by studying their performance during the Korean economic crisis periods. (JEL G01, G32, G34)     

Foreign Direct Investment and External Financing Conditions: Evidence from Normal and Crisis Times

In this paper, we investigate the effects that external financing conditions in source and destination countries have on foreign direct investment (FDI) in normal and crisis times, using a difference‐in‐differences approach. We find that the financial development of the source and destination countries has a strong positive impact on the relative volume of FDI in financially vulnerable sectors in normal times. However, during the 2008–2010 global financial crisis, the relative volume of FDI in financially vulnerable sectors fell relatively more in financially developed source and destination countries, most notably if these countries experienced a credit crisis.     

An Institutional Perspective on International Financial Governance: How Much Has Happened Since the Crisis?

This article studies some institutional trends in international financial regulation after the great crisis of 2008. It supports the idea that the largest financial corporations are working to create several components for an international self-regulation. Private firms make up the architecture of this complicated global mechanism, which is backed up by governments. Meanwhile, this built-up mechanism is based on several assumptions about the origins of the great financial crisis and on the capabilities of governments to reach the objectives they are expected to achieve. This article concludes that a new financial crisis will develop, and the “too-big-to-fail” financial corporations are already preparing strategies on resolution regimes.     

Lessons from the 1997 and the 2008 Crises in Korea

The Korean economy was hit harder than anticipated by the global financial crisis. In the first phase, large capital outflows led to a severe liquidity strain in the foreign exchange market, resulting in a rapid depreciation of the exchange rate. Then, in the second phase, the contraction of global demand led to a collapse of exports and a sharp decline in economic activity, raising concerns about a full‐fledged financial crisis in Korea. This paper describes how the global financial crisis spilled over into the Korean economy and how the Korean government responded to the financial turmoil. It also provides the background and rationale for the Korean government's decisions to adopt specific policy measures. Based on Korean experiences during the 1997 and the 2008 crises, this paper documents the lessons learned from the past two crises and identifies several important policy issues.