The Terminal Value and Inflation Controversy

This journal recently published what was effectively a debate between Gunther Friedl and Bernhard Schwetzler (hereafter “F&S”), on the one hand, and Michael Bradley and Gregg Jarrell (“B&J”). B&J initiated the first round of the debate by criticizing the constant growth valuation model, commonly known as the “Constant Growth Model” or “Gordon Growth Model.” The Gordon Growth Model was introduced by Myron Gordon and Eli Shapiro (“G&S”) in a 1956 paper and has long been widely used by corporate and investment practitioners. F&S responded to B&J with a defense of the original G&S formulation. In revisiting this debate, the authors find that the models B&J and F&S advocate are at bottom two different versions of the same G&S constant growth model, but with quite different assumptions about the effect of inflation on the amount of capital reinvestment required to sustain businesses over time. The authors resolve the dispute by showing that both models, when using a consistent set of assumptions about inflation and capital reinvestment, produce identical growth rates and estimates of value. At the same time, however, the authors recognize that the two models (the G&S/F&S model, on the one hand, and the B&J model on the other) are likely to be appropriate for very different kinds of companies, and each for only small subsets of companies.     

Using Forecasting Criteria to Identify Value Relevance in the Relationship Between Accounting Numbers and Market Value

We explain and demonstrate a disciplined and systematic approach to repeatable modelling using forecast criteria, in addition to the usual statistical estimation criteria, to identify value relevance in regressions of the market‐accounting relation. The method was used in Cooke et al. ( 2009 ). It is illustrated here in the case of a single firm over a 59‐year period. Market and accounting data for the U.S. firm Abbott Laboratories Inc. from 1955 are modelled using a testing‐down, error correction approach. Hold‐out samples of 10 to 15 years are used to assess forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Emphasis is placed upon the use of simple, directly observable and theory‐independent model variables that can be replicated with other sample data. In this case, logarithmic transformations of all variables have to be computed in order to achieve correct statistical specification, implying a multiplicative relationship in the raw data. The strongest cointegrating accounting variable with forecasting ability for Abbott's market value is earnings. The model parameters exhibit long‐run stability and the accounting regressor marginally improves forecasts of market value compared to a random walk, demonstrating ‘value relevance’.     

Valuation and Accounting for Inflation and Foreign Exchange

Inflation and foreign exchange raise new issues with respect to accounting representations of equity value. For example, inflation creates an earnings illusion as an artifact of the mismatching of expenses based on allocations of historical costs with current revenues in determining earnings. This mismatching distorts mappings of aggregate earnings and book values into equity value such that value‐relevant information is lost. In this article we consider the consequences of inflation and foreign exchange accounting policies, including those contained in accounting standards, on the value relevance of bottom‐line accounting numbers. Policies are identified that achieve efficient accounting in the sense that aggregate (comprehensive) earnings and book values are sufficient for an accounting representation of equity value. The linear relations that emerge provide predictions on capitalization coefficients that help explain results of empirical inquiries. As well, our analysis provides a theoretical foundation for policies contained in accounting standards that contributes to the resolution of controversies such as that concerning foreign exchange accounting.     

The Impact of the Definition of Inflation on the Effectiveness of Inflation Accounting Adjustments

In tests of inflation accounting methods, inflation is generally seen as a simple phenomenon: the prices of all elements change at the same rate. The example presented here deals with a different case: inflation is characterized by changes in the structure of prices. In particular, prices of articles bought and articles sold do not vary at the same rates.
In this context, it is observed that three types of adjustments are not effective, i.e. they do not have the potential to report real or nominal rates of return. This result should be considered as a criticism of the coherence of inflation accounting methods.     

Accounting Practices and the Market Valuation of Accounting Numbers: Evidence from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand

This study examines the relation between stock prices and accounting earnings and book values in six Asian countries: Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. The analysis is based on a residual earnings model that expresses the value of the firm in terms of book value and residual income. The model holds for any clean surplus accounting system. However, for finite time horizons, biased accounting may affect model estimates. The six countries examined in this study differ in faithfulness to clean surplus accounting as well as bias (conservatism). The study addresses two questions. First, are there systematic differences across countries in the value relevance of accounting, and are these differences related to accounting differences? Second, are there systematic differences in the incremental and relative information content of book value per share (BVPS) and abnormal (residual) earnings per share (REPS) across the countries, and are such differences related to accounting differences? We find differences across the six countries in the explanatory power of BVPS and REPS for firm values. Explanatory power for Taiwan and Malaysia is relatively low while that for Korea and the Philippines is relatively high. These differences are generally consistent with differences in accounting practice; however, since Korean accounting practice is strongly influenced by tax law, we did not expect the high association for Korea. Second, with respect to the incremental and relative explanatory power of BVPS and REPS, we find BVPS to have high explanatory power in the Philippines and Korea but little in Taiwan. In all six countries REPS has less explanatory power than BVPS in most years. Again, the evidence may be interpreted as suggesting accounting practice affects valuation (with Korea again as the exception). Finally, we provide evidence on the sensitivity of the timing of comparisons of stock prices and accounting values. We find that comparing prices at year-end (even though annual accounting information has not been released at that time), in general, provides the highest correlation between market and accounting numbers.     

论通货膨胀条件下的会计模式

本文通过对通货膨胀条件下国际上通行的会计计量手段的分析,揭示了其理论基础和实务操作的基本思路,可以在会计实践中利用类似的方法和思路更准确的的反映资产价值、经营成果和投资报酬水平。     

高货币化、通货膨胀预期与通货膨胀

通货膨胀成为信用货币经济中循环往复的问题,货币是症结关键。通过建立包含货币缺口和收入差距的凯恩斯Phillips曲线理论模型,利用中国1979-2010年的数据实证得出:货币化通过两种途径作用于通货膨胀,一是通过扩大货币缺口、直接推动当期物价上升,二是高货币化导致了较高的通货膨胀预期,这种预期又推动了通货膨胀的自我实现。因此,在经济平稳发展情况下,货币化是一个金融发展程度指标,但在严重依赖货币扩张推动经济增长的情况下,货币化却可能是货币超发的指标,与通货膨胀存在着密切关系。     

产权保护、公允价值与会计改革

会计在界定和保护利益相关者产权及保障市场经济有序和有效运转中的作用都是基础性的、不可替代的。产权保护导向的市场化改革必然要求产权保护导向的会计改革与之步调一致。产权、公允价值与会计之间有着紧密的联系:追求价值计量是会计产生、发展和变革的内在诉求;价值计量实现了公允价值与产权会计的对接,是会计发挥界定产权和保护产权功能的坚实基础;公允价值计量基础是价值计量基础的最佳实现形式,是理想与现实的最佳耦合。     

产权保护、公允价值与会计稳健性

在金融危机和会计国际趋同的宏观背景下,以产权保护为逻辑主线,本文重点考察了公允价值与会计稳健性之间的关系。研究发现:在历史成本会计模式下,公允价值与会计稳健性之间若即若离;在公允价值会计模式下,公允价值与会计稳健性之间彻底悖离;在混合会计模式下,公允价值与会计稳健性之间适度耦合;金融危机中公允价值论战的焦点表面上是会计的技术性问题,实质上是会计的社会性问题,即公允价值充当了一个产权博弈的筹码。     

Boussard's 'Effectiveness of Inflation Accounting Adjustments': A Comment

Boussard's (1984) notion that Current Cost/Constant Dollar Accounting does not provide 'meaningful rates of return' when inflationary conditions are compared with non-inflationary conditions is based on a misleading example.     

Predicting Half-Yearly Accounting Income Numbers With Statistical Models

Prediction of half-yearly accounting income numbers has an important role in investment analysis, credit ratings, budgeting, auditing and other areas of the accounting and finance profession. This study provides the Australian evidence on two issues: the statistical relationship between half-yearly accounting income numbers such as earnings per share, net profit and sales; and the ability of statistical models to predict these numbers. The study finds that the best way to predict the next period's half-yearly accounting income numbers is to use the immediately preceding half-yearly income number, and for inflation-adjusted sales the corresponding previous half-yearly figures, or to use a statistical model based on the immediately preceding half-yearly figure adjusted by a statistically based "smoothing constant".     

Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia

This paper studies the term structure of real rates, expected inflation, and inflation risk premia. The analysis is based on new estimates of the real term structure derived from the prices of index-linked and nominal debt in the U.K. I find strong evidence to reject both the Fisher Hypothesis and versions of the Expectations Hypothesis for real rates. The estimates also imply the presence of time-varying inflation risk premia throughout the term structure.